MTi Sports
Los Angeles Angels at Tampa Bay Rays
Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays
The Angels are 1-11 when Ervin Santana starts as a dog after throwing more than 100 pitches and the Rays are 17-2 as a home 140+ favorite after a win in which they had fewer team-left-on-base than their opponent. Consider Tampa.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Tampa Bay Rays -136
I'll back the Rays at home in this one against the struggling Santana, who brings in an ERA of 9.60 over his last 3 starts. Price has been brilliant for the Rays since getting called up, boasting a 2.45 ERA in 3 starts. As you saw in the postseason last fall, this youngster has amazing stuff and I expect his success to continue until teams become more familiar with him. Tampa Bay has taken 8 of the last 11 in this series at home and the Rays are 8-1 in their last 9 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. The Angels are 0-4 in Santana's last 4 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150 and 0-4 in Santana's last 4 road starts vs. the Rays.
Jr Tips
YANKEES vs. RED SOX
After losing their first seven games against the Boston Red Sox(35-24) , the New York Yankees turn to their ace CC Sabathia who looks to lead New York to its first win over its archrivals tonight.. The Yankees (34-25) loss 6-5 last night with 11 hits, but went 2 for 15 with runners in scoring position. Mark Teixeira led New York with four hits - including his AL-leading 19th homer, and is 10 for 23 (.435) with three home runs and eight RBIs in his last six games. Sabathia, the 2007 AL Cy Young Award winner has gone 4-0 with a 2.49 ERA and is averaging nearly eight innings in his last six outings although Sabathia (5-3, 3.56 ERA) allowed five runs and five hits in eight innings of a 9-7 home loss to Tampa Bay on Saturday. Sabathia recorded a 10.45 ERA in losing both of his starts against Boston in the '07 playoffs and will be trying to slow down a Red Sox team that has won seven of its last nine overall and eight in a row over the Yankees dating to last season.Boston's third baseman Mike Lowell hit his 10th homer Wednesday and is 10 for 30 with three home runs and 10 RBIs against New York this year. Boston's Brad Penny (5-2, 5.85) will make his first appearance in the Red Sox-Yankees rivalry.Penny hasn't been sharp with the Sox, but he's been helped by an offense that's backed him with an average of 7.2 runs of support. In his last outing, the right-hander gave up five runs and seven hits in 5 2/3 innings of Friday's 5-1 loss to Texas. The Yankees and the Soxs had 20 hits combined last night. Sabathia has never pitched well at Fennway and Penny has struggled all year. The hot bats for both teams continue tonight as you can count on plenty runs on the scoreboard.
TAKE OVER 9 1/2 RUNS
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Free Selection from Mike Wynn
Free Play: MLB Milwaukee w/Gallardo -180 Over Colorado
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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
277 - 179 run 60 % 21-8 run here
THURS: Orlando Magic - 2 1/2
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Free Selection from Totals4U
Thursday's free selection: Toronto/Texas over 10 1/2
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Sportsbettingstats
Orlando Magic at Cleveland Cavaliers
Tonight the Cleveland Cavaliers host the Orlando Magic in game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals. The Cavs have their backs against the wall, as they are down 3-1 in this series after losing in OT on Tuesday night in Orlando. The reasons the Cavs are down in this series are that they cannot figure out how to play D on the Magic and their supporting cast has let LeBron down. All Star Mo Williams has struggled all series and even though he did score 15 points in game 4 he was only 5/15 from the floor and he did not hit one of his 3 3-pt shots. The Magic have played great, as when the Cavs pack the lane to stop Dwight Howard the Magic are bombing away from downtown and when the Cavs leave the lane to stop the 3-point shot Howard dominates inside. Howard scored 10 points in the OT period and he dominated the glass in the game going for 14 boards. The Cavs have to find a way to defend the long ball, as in game 4 the Magic shot 17/38 from beyond the 3-pt line for a scorching 3-pt FG% of 44.7%. The Cavs are down to their last game, as they have to step up on defense and have another scorer besides LeBron or they will be watching the NBA finals from home.
The Magic won game 4 on Tuesday night in Orlando 116-114 in OT. For the game the Magic shot 40/80 for a FG% of 50% while the Cavs shot 39/87 from the floor for a FG% of 44.8%. This season the Magic ranked 4th in scoring (101 ppg) and the Cavaliers ranked 13th (100.3 ppg). On D the Cavaliers were the best in the league ranking 1st in points allowed (91.3 ppg) and the Magic ranked 6th (94.4 ppg).
Unlike the Cavs the supporting cast of the Magic are playing great and in game 4. Rafer Alston played great going for 26 points on 10/17 shooting including going 6/12 from beyond the 3-pt line and reserve Mickael Pietrus scored 17 points. The Cavs have to shoot better from downtown, as in game 4 they were only 6/22 for a 3-pt FG% of 27.3%. In game 4 the Cavs had had more rebounds, more offensive rebounds, twice as many steals, and fewer turnovers and they still lost the game. The Magic are one win away from the NBA finals and unless the Cavs can play like they did in the regular season Orlando will get there.
Staff Pick: The Cavs are in an unfamiliar position being on the brink of elimination, but they are at home tonight and they are too good a team to go quietly. Look for Mo Williams to snap out of his series-long slump, as he will help James out tonight and the Cavs will win this game, cover the spread, and get back into this series.
Cavs 98 Magic 90
Rocketman
Kansas City @ Cleveland
Play: Kansas City
Kansas City comes in with a 25-33 record this year while Cleveland is 26-35 on the season. Kansas City is 67-54 last 3 years when the total is 8 to 8 1/2. Zack Greinke is 8-2 with a 1.55 ERA overall this year, 2-2 with a 1.93 ERA on the road and 1-1 with a 3.86 ERA his last 3 starts. Jeremy Sowers is 1-3 with a 5.40 ERA in all games this year, 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA in all starts, 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA at home and 0-2 with a 4.80 ERA his last 3 starts. Greinke has a 3.38 ERA overall vs Cleveland since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on Kansas City tonight!
Wunderdog
Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: Cleveland Indians +1½-135
I really like the Indians on the runline. The Royals’ offense has been really silenced as they have scored three or less in 19 of 29, and have been shutout five times in the process. It makes spotting the opponent +1.5 runs look very value-laden. The Royals are 1-9 in their last 10 on the road against a team with a losing record, and overall are 40-83 in their last 123 on the road against a team with a losing record. They are subsequently converting 32.5% on the moneyline in this situation and the oddsmakers are asking them to spot a run and a half? The value is on Cleveland and I will play them on the runline.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Washington Nationals -122
The Nats have the big edge on the hill tonight with the southpaw Lannan, who is 2-0 with a 1.76 ERA at home this season. The Reds send Owings, who is only 1-4 with an ERA of 5.46 on the road this season. While the Reds have been a good road team this season, they are only 2-6 in the last 8 meetings in Washington. After dropping the first two games of this series, expect the Nats to bounce back strong at home with the better starter on the hill.
Tom Freese
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Boston Red Sox
New York starter C.C. Sabathia is 2-7 with a 5.06 ERA in 9 starts vs. the Red Sox. The Yankees are 3-7 after scoring 5 or more runs in their last game and they are 1-4 their last 5 games overall. The Bronx Bombers are 1-4 with Sabathia in his last 5 starts with four days of rest. Boston 14-4 their last 18 home games vs. winning teams and they are 40-19 their last 59 home games vs. lefty starters. Starting pitcher Brad Penny has a better than 8-1 strikeout to walk ratio in his last 3 starts and the Sox are 4-1 in his last 5 home starts. PLAY ON BOSTON (Penny vs. Sabathia)
Freddy Wills
St Louis Cardinals vs. Florida Marlins
Play: St Louis Cardinals
Just got confirmation that Hanley Ramirez will be out today. Which is what will make this a play for me. I mentioned Wellemeyer as a cold starter today, but I really think he has a bounce back performance against a Marlins team that his hitting just .228 vs. RHP in their last 5 scoring just 3.16 runs/9 innings.
This along with the fact that the Cardinals seem to be out of their slump scoring 13 last night which was more than they had in their 5 game losing streak combined! Wellemeyer has had success here last year he pitched a 3 hitter giving 0ER in 7.2 IP. He backed that up against the Fish on his own turf with an 8IP 4H 3ER a month later. The Cards are 16-6 in their last 22 against the Fish and I expect them to take this one as dogs.
Andrew Miller has been solid as of late, but his 1.62WHIP in his last 3 games alarms me especially after how well the Cardinals played last night with their bats. They are 11-5 in their last 16 games vs. left handed starter look for them to make it 12-5!
Larry Ness
TEX (-155) vs TOR
Toronto went winless on a nine-game trip from May 19-27, getting outscored 53-23. The Jays returned home and won five of nine during a homestand, before heading back out on the road on this past Monday. They snapped their road skid with a 6-3 win at Texas on Monday and beat the Rangers 9-0 on Tuesday for their fifth shutout of the season. The 33-25 Rangers have now lost SIX of their last nine. The Rangers can't count on any help from Josh Hamilton these days, as he was placed on the DL back on June 2, in order to repair a partially torn abdominal muscle (he's expected to be out between four to six weeks). Wednesday's game was rained out but the same pitchers are scheduled to go for both Toronto (Romero) and Texas (Millwood). Kevin Millwood has done an outstanding job for the Rangers this year, despite owning a modest 5-4 mark in 12 starts (team is just 6-6). Millwood has allowed no more than three ERs in NINE of his 12 starts and his ERA on the year is an impressive 2.96. Getting the call for Toronto is rookie left-hander Ricky Romero. He's coming off his first win in three starts in his last outing, after missing more than a month with a strained right oblique. He gave up three ERs and five hits in seven innings to beat Kansas City 9-3 last Friday, which was his first win since April 19. Romero returned to action on May 26 at Baltimore, allowing 11 hits and five ERs in 5.1 innings, then allowed six hits and another five ERs in just four innings vs the Red Sox (in Baltimore), before that solid outing last Friday. Texas is 13-8 at home vs lefties this year (5.8 RPG), including 7-2 in home night games (7.6 RPG). However, like in last night's 9-0 loss to the lefty Tallet, the Rangers are struggling recently vs left-handers everywhere, batting only .198 against them since May 16. That being said, I'm backing Millwood (who's been terrific), as I believe the Texas bats will 'wake up' against Romero. Take the Rangers.
LT Profits
Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals
The Under is a remarkable 20-9-1 in all Cincinnati Reds road games this season, and we expect more of the same when the visit the Washington Nationals in this late afternoon affair.
Cincinnati road games have averaged just a combined 7.86 runs this season, as the offense has generated just a .239 team batting average away from home. Do not expect much improvement today vs. John Lannan, who is the ace of the Washington staff right now. Lannan may be 3-5, but that is due to a lack of run support, as he has a nice 3.68 ERA overall and a fantastic 1.76 ERA and 1.10 WHIP here at home. He has allowed three earned runs or less in all six home starts.
Now granted, Micah Owings has been shaky for Cincinnati, but he is coming off of a nice performance vs. the Chicago Cubs where he allowed two runs on five hits in six innings, and he is not exactly facing Murderers Row today. The Nationals are averaging just 3.20 runs while batting a pathetic .223 as a team over the last 10 games, as the bats are coming down to earth after a surprisingly hit start this year.
It is also worth mentioning that the Reds are hitting a measly .207 in their last 10 games themselves, and after Cincinnati win the first two games of this series 3-2 and 4-2 respectively, look for a similarly low scoring contest.
Pick: Reds/Nationals Under 9
Vegas Experts
New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox
Boston will start right-hander Brad Penny who has won each of his three starts against New York in his career carrying a 3.12 ERA in those games. The Red Sox are great in this situation as they are 15-3 SU at home against division opponents and 11-1 SU after 4+ consecutive home games. Yankees hefty lefty C.C. Sabathia has had all types of trouble against the Sox in his career as he has 2-7 TSR with an ERA of 5.06. Go with the Red Sox.
Play on: Boston
Yankee Capper
Pittsburgh Pirates +160
Chicago Cubs -140
San Francisco Giants +150
Chicago White Sxo -110
Jack Jones
Detroit Tigers -115 over Chicago White Sox
I'm going to ride Edwin Jackson tonight as he has a 1.31 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in six road starts and should post decent numbers tonight against a struggling White Sox team. Chicago is hitting just .211 in their last seven games and .218 at home this year. Detroit hasn't been knocking the cover off the ball, but Gavin Floyd has a 5.35 ERA on the season. Sure he's had some success recently, but that was against a couple of weak hitting teams. I'll go with the road team here today.