Marco D' Angelo
CBB Sides
double-dime bet Louisiana Tech 8.0 vs Idaho
Analysis: OK tonight we have Louisiana Tech battling Idaho and both teams are struggling so who do we take well I'm a firm believer that you look to the Dog here as that's where the Value is. Vegas knows that John Q Public will look at the favorite and this is the one they are suppose to win. Wrong this is a Bad team that is laying points. Expect this one to go to the wire and I'm taking the Dog who has a real shot at winning this game outright. TAKE LOUISIANA TECH as MARCO'S 5* COLLEGE KEY RELEASE and make them a DOUBLE DIME PLAY
CBB Sides
double-dime bet N. Texas -1.5 vs Arkansas St.
Analysis: Tonight N.Texas travels to Arkansas St. This is a great sport as they catch Arkansas St fresh off of their Upset Win against rival Arkansas Little Rock. Expect N. Texas to roll tonight as they see them Winning this by 9-12 points. TAKE N. TEXAS and make them a DOUBLE DIME PLAY.
Alatex
15* USC
Jason Bell
FOUR 2000* HOOPS LOCKS
West Virginia +2 over Louisville
Oregon -5.5 over California
Illinois +11 over Wisconsin
Washington State +2 over USC
THE STRALEY GROUP
FURMAN vs WESTERN CAROLINA
Play: FURMAN +9
PITTSBURGH vs TAMPA BAY
Play: PITTSBURGH (NHL)
PITTSBURGH vs TAMPA BAY
Play: PITTSBURGH / TAMPA BAY UNDER 6 (NHL)
WISE OWL SYNDICATE
DETROIT vs SAN ANTONIO
Play: SAN ANTONIO (NBA) -3
AUSTIN PEAY vs MURRAY STATE
Play: AUSTIN PEAY +2 (CBB)
KELSO STURGON (NEWSLETTER)
NC-WILMINGTON by 10 over Hofstra - No one is about to proclaim NC-Wilmington a world-beater but the Seahawks appear to have all the edges in this Colonial Athletic Conference game against a Hofstra team that is 0-5 SU on the road this season.
LOUISVILLE by 8 over West Virginia - Louisville is healthy for the first time this season and that should position the host Cardinals to live up to pre-
season expectations and get the win against a good West Virginia team that plays much better at home that on the road.
BOISE STATE by 11 over New Mexico State - Boise State is not be to confused with North Carolina or Duke but the Broncos have put together one of the better teams in the WAC, and all while flying below the radar. Boise State has legitimate big-time scorers this season - three of them to be exact - and my money says New Mexico State can't keep up.
WISCONSIN by 27 over Illinois - One has to wonder what has happened at Illinois. The Fighting Illini have been national contenders in recent years but already this season have lost at home to such teams as Tennessee State and Miami-OH, not to mention getting crushed at home last Saturday by Ohio State by 16. Wisconsin never takes prisoners and you can bet they won't hesitate to run it up here.
RAS:
Boise -4'... 1
ID -7.... 1
N. AZ -4..... 1/2
ID St. -1.... 1/2
three2won
West Virginia OVER 137
2-UNITS
Louisville is a sleeping Giant.
West Virginia can score at will.
Palacios and Padgett are back from injury and they are beginning to find their rhythm, when rhythm is fully established then Louisville switches to a post team that wants to out muscle you.
Character is a power forward that tends to thrive in this BIG environment, so we should see more activity in the paint than we normally see in Cardinal games.
I want you to pay attention to a wonderful stat from the Kentucky game.
Personal fouls and foul shots:
There were 53 personal fouls in that game!
Louisville was remarkable from the line, going 33-46.
Kentucky was 22-27 from the line.
That's a definite sign of a Louisville team that has regained focus! You see, I believe that the Cards want to focus on the BIGS, and it usually takes about 5 games to get back into the swing of things, so they waited to spring this attack on Kentucky, since Palacios and Padgett were getting into better shape.
Palacios, Padgett, and Character shot 25 free throws.
The big talk in Louisville (summer) was that they may have to shift focus toward the post, and run less pressure packages. I think they are interested in doing this when Padgett and Palacios are strong enough.
I think the time is now.
Both men have been back for around 5 games (remember this), and you can see a general focus toward getting the ball inside. This is evident by the amount of attention the Forwards and Centers are getting now.
Louisville is ready for the high percentage looks.
Last Game: Shots from the frontcourt beat shots from the perimeter 28-24 with foul shots going 29-17 in favor of the Frontcourt.
Go back 5 games to the Marshall victory:
Backcourt shots outpaced frontcourt 42-21 and the perimeter guys shot more free throws at 13-10.
This is a clear demarkation of a shift to the inside!!!! It's right in front of us!
There is a possible shift, and we are going to ride it!
Look for a greater focus on the interior as WVU is not deep in this regard, and they cannot withstand a frontcourt war.
I think this will force WVU to attempt the 3-pointer, so we need them to hit their shots. (40% shooters essentially).
If Louisville tries to go big on WVU then they may have a few open looks.
On top of this, Total wagers hinge on Assists and Turnovers:
West Virginia, like Tennessee, has a 17/11 Assist to turnover ratio! This translates into points in transition, and points in the paint, and that leads to fouls on the other side!
West Virginia can score on almost anyone with this ratio!
With an RPI of #25 they have managed to score an average of 83 points per game. So it's no fluke!
They foul a bunch too (20 times per game!)
There is a bunch to write in this game, but I love the OVER!!!!!!
1 UNIT CLEVELAND ST - 2.5
Larry Ness
20* WAC GOY- Boise St
Spritzer revenge game
Geo Southern
Kelso
10 units Nevada -6 @ San Jose St
5 units Louisville -2 v WVU
4 units N Ariz -4.5 v Montana
3 units Boise St -5.5 v. N Mex St
JB Sports
Detroit Pistons +4
LT Profits
West Virginia / Louisville UNDER 137
Pac Star
Louisville -2
Alex Smart
Pacific -5
Frontline Sports Wire,
NHL
Toronto over 6 (5units)
NCAA
Lou-2 (5)
Cle St -2.5 (5)
Wisc Mil +11.5 (5)
Northern Arz-4.5 (5)
UC Irvine o 139 (5)
INDIAN COWBOY
YESTERDAY: 1-0 SWEEP PLAY OF THE DAY WINNER
Winning 9 of 12 Days
20-10 RUN
Jazz -5 (POD)
Now winning 9 of 12 days, 4 days in a row and 7 of 9 days in January. Essentially, we are up a shit load of money. Let's roll yet again today. This play seem crazy? Well, I have alwys said that if a considerable amount of the public is riding the underdog, that is never good news as the line continues to remain seady or even rise. The Jazz are infamous of not showing up against teams that are terrible but showing up big against the better teams in the league - especially at home. Utah is one of the toughest places to play in the league and that is no different today as this team lost to Phoenix by 5 points earlier this year and make no mistake about it, the Suns should have lost to the Pacers at home without the full guard play of Nash who has been hampered by the flu and that affects them heavily today on the raod as they visit the Jazz who will be looking for revenge and will not let the Jazz off the hook like the Pacers did with a double-digit lead. The public gets buried here in my opinion as the Jazz likely end up winning by double-digits. The Jazz are 7-1-1 ATS as home favorites by this margin.
West Virginia +2.5
I've talked about this in the research on thread and although I believe my fraternity bother has a good team in Louisville - speaking of Petino - the Cardinals are still a top 100 ranked team in the power rankings and they face a West Virginia team that is top 25. I believe West Virginia should have won on the road at Notre Dame who is a top 40 team and they fell short, so why not beat a top 100 team on the road after being a top 20 Marquette team at home. West Virginia has lost just trice all year - on the road or at home - and they were all to teams in the top 30 in the nation and Louisville has already lost to a similar ranked Dayton team who is a top 25 team outright at home, and they failed to cover against a top 75 Miami of Ohio team at home as they won by just 3 and they face a West Virginia team that is top 25. Why not the Moutaineers who are well coached and looked to redeem themselves on the road today. Here is my key stat for this play - the Moutaineers show up against the better teams in the nation as they are 8-2 ATS against teams that have a winning percentage of 60% while Louisville continues to get overvalued as they are 0-4 ATS against teams that have won 60% of their games or more.
Cleveland State -2
This is a game of revenge as Cleveland State lost to Detroit in a very dissappointing game last year as I remember it very vividly as Cleveland State did not pop 50 points in a game that was with a very young State team. Well, this team gets to return the favor on the road and this State is more experienced and much better. Cleveland State already has 8 wins this year and they face a Detroit team that is getting a lot of respect for just 3 wins thus far this year. Cleveland State is a top 100 squad facing a Detroit team that is a top 200 squad. Cleveland State has lost on the road, but those were to top ranked teams such as Kent, Ohio State, Southern and CS Northridge - all teams within the top 100. This team won on the road at South Florida and Chicago State and has the talent to win this game by 8 points on the road today according to my numbers. The favorite typically wins this rivalry as the fav is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 times these 2 teams have met.
Dr. Bob
Thursday College Opinions
Cleveland State (-2 ½) over DETROIT
Detroit has lost 8 consecutive games and head coach Perry Watson decided to take a leave of absence following Saturday’s heart-breaking loss to Wisconsin-Milwaukee. Detroit applies to a 47-101 ATS negative momentum situation, but Cleveland State is coming off their best game of the year (a 68-51 win over Illinois Chicago) and the Vikings are just 1-6 ATS after a double-digit win under coach Gary Waters. That team trend is not that significant, but it’s enough to get me off of this game as a Best Bet. I’ll lean with Cleveland State at -3 points or less.
Spritzer
southern confrnc revenge goy..............ga south
ko..............................pacific
tko............................new mex st,oregon
5 star hammer..............west virg
direct line release.................jazz
ko..................................pistons
Cokin
fat man releases..............wiscon, oregon
late slammer.....................ca fullerton
big shot...........................montana st
window...........................tenn st
under the hat..................west virg
3 star action......................tenn martin, saint louis
new mex st
Feist
personal best........................ga southern
steam play.....................west virg, st louis
platiunum........................clev st
inner circle...........................usc
5 star executive tv gow................wisconsin
inner circle......................suns
5 star excecutivedog of week........pistons
Sebastian
10* Stl Blues
10* NM St.
10* Georgia Southern
10* STL
100* USC
Smart Money Play (37-14)
Eastern Illinois
AAA
W Kentucky over 150 (HEAVYHITTER)
North Texas Mean Green Eagles at Arkansas State Indians - Arkansas State +1.5 -110 | Unit Value: 2
Note: We have some very interesting trends for this game. The Road team is 9-1 ATS last 10 in this series, but the Underdog is 8-1 ATS the last 9. That pretty much means that the Road team has been pegged the Dog in the last 9 meetings. So why is North Texas favored here? It is primarily due to perception of who is the better team and that perception says that the Mean Green are. However, we must not forget that the Indians have been without their superstar guard, Adrian Banks for a long time. He has returned and with him he brings over 20 points per game. This guy from Memphis, Tenn is the real deal and he showed that last game out verses Arkansas Little Rock as the Indians drubbed that better than average squad right here in Jonesboro. This court has been very kind to Arkansas State this year as they are 7-1, losing only their first game. They have done that mostly without Mr Banks. These teams are similar in that respect with North Texas possessing a perfect 8-0 home mark but just 1-4 when they have traveled. The Eagles do have the advantage in the interior and they will try to use that to their advantage. Ark State is going to have to be patient and get good shots but they are very good at doing that and have great guard play and great passing skills. That has allowed them to hit a marvalous 40% from beyond the arc and even better than that here on the homecourt. One can look at the 10-4 North Texas Record, and the 7-7 Ark State record and conclude that the Mean Green should be favored. The Oddsmakers did just that. They are wrong. With Banks back in the Teepee, this Indian team is the better proposition tonight
Cash & Profit Experts
CBB
Cleveland St -2
Uc Santa Barbara +1
NBA
Det +3.5
(7-3-1 Last 5days)
Jeff Benton
10 Dime: STANFORD (minus the points vs. Oregon State)
10 Dime: PISTONS (plus the points vs. Spurs)
5 Dime: WISCONSIN-GREEN BAY (plus the points vs. Butler)
5 Dime: UC SANTA BARBARA (over U.C. Irvine)
Stanford
We’re only two games into the Pac-10 season, and already I think we’ve found the team that’s going to take up residence in the league’s basement. Let me introduce you to Oregon State! The Beavers are 6-8 on the season, with the six wins coming against South Carolina Upstate (whatever that is), Idaho State, Portland, U.C. Davis, Cal State-Bakersfield and Northern Colorado. Among the eight losses: Alaska-Fairbanks, Tennessee Tech and Montana State.
Last week, Oregon State opened conference play at Arizona and Arizona State and came away with two losses by a combined 32 points.
Well, tonight, they face a Stanford squad that’s 12-2 SU, including 3-1 on the road. And it’s a Stanford squad that’s owned Oregon State, winning nine of the last 10 meetings overall, going 5-0 ATS in the last five, 13-3 ATS in the last 16 and – get this – 8-0 ATS in its last eight visits to Corvallis, Ore. In fact, the road team is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 series meetings.
Stanford, which just held USC to 46 points in a home win on Saturday, owns some incredible statistical advantages in this game, too. The Cardinal put up 72.8 points per game on 46.5 percent shooting, including 37.8 percent from three-point land, while Oregon State averages 63.2 points, 39.4 percent shooting and 30.1 percent from long range. Defensively, Stanford gives up 56.8 ppg; Oregon State 62 ppg, and Stanford holds the opposition to 39.4 percent shooting; Oregon State’s at 43.3 percent, including 45.4 percent at home.
The Beavers have been held to 62 (Tennessee Tech), 65 (Northern Colorado), 61 (LSU), 59 (Montana State), 63 (Arizona) and 53 points (Arizona State) in their last six games. And last year against Stanford, they were held to 55 and 56 points in two meetings. This is a no-brainer here. Lay the chalk with the visitor.
Pistons
Two nights ago, I backed the Magic in Sacramento and they laid an egg. But I didn’t hesitate to play Orlando last night at the Clippers, and although it got a little dicey late, the Magic pulled through for the win and cover. Well, here we go again: Last night I played the Pistons in Dallas and Detroit got pummeled, but I’m coming right back and playing the Pistons as a ‘dog tonight in San Antonio. The reasons: The Spurs are scuffling; I can’t see the Pistons, who have lost consecutive games for the first time since mid-November, dropping a third in a row; and Detroit (like Orlando) has been phenomenal on the second night of a back-to-back situation, going 6-1-1 ATS this year and 8-1-1 ATS in that spot dating to last year.
As for the Spurs’ struggles, they’re 6-7 in their last 13 games, going 4-9 ATS during that stretch. That includes four consecutive non-covers in their last four games and a 2-4 ATS mark in their last six at home. Heck, in its most recent home game, San Antonio barely edged the Knicks – the Knicks! – 97-93. Also, we all know that San Antonio is getting a little long in the tooth. Well, look at what they’ve done since Dec. 30: home vs. Memphis, at Denver, home vs. New York, at the Clippers, at the Warriors, and now back to San Antonio for tonight’s game. Tough stretch of travel there.
Finally, despite last night’s loss, the Pistons are still on an insane 18-4 SU and 18-3-1 ATS roll, including 9-2 on the road (9-1-1 ATS). They’re also 6-3 ATS in their last nine games against the Spurs, including back-to-back covers in San Antonio (83-68 win in 2006; 90-89 loss last year). Billups, Rip, ‘Sheed and the boys bounce back for us tonight. Play the road pup.
Wisconsin-Green Bay
Inflated line here, simple as that. Of course, every line is inflated with Butler these days, which is hardly a secret anymore. Of course, that didn’t matter at the beginning of the season, as the Bulldogs covered the spread in their first four games and six of their first seven. Since then, though, Butler is just 3-3-1 ATS, including 0-2-1 ATS as a double-digit chalk and 0-3-1 ATS in Horizon League games. In fact, this is THE biggest pointspread Butler has laid all season long.
And considering that the Bulldogs have scored more than 66 points just four times in their last nine games, that’s significant – especially against a Wisconsin-Green Bay team that averages 72 points per game and actually shoots the ball better from the field (47 percent) than Butler (45 percent). Not only that, but the Phoenix’s filed-goal defense (44.5 percent) is better than Butler’s (45.3 percent).
Now, it’s true that Bulldogs have played some stiff competition in the non-conference season, so that partially explains the discrepancy. Then again, Wisc-Green Bay faced three talented Big Ten teams – Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Ohio State, all on the road – in non-conference play, so maybe the stat comparison isn’t so far off.
Throw in the fact that the Phoenix are, like Butler, off to a 3-1 start in Horizon League play, while the Bulldogs are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five Horizon League games, and I’m all over the big points in this contest.
U.C. Santa Barbara
I don’t get this line at all. UCSB is 12-3 on the season, while Cal-Irvine is 5-9. Two of the Gauchos’ losses came on the road against a Top 20 team (Stanford) and the No. 1 team in the nation (North Carolina). True, the third loss was Saturday’s inexcusable 88-84 setback to Cal-State Northridge as a 7-point home favorite. But to me, that just served as wake-up call for USCB, which opened Big West play a game earlier with a 79-64 rout of Long Beach State. The Gauchos, after their tough non-conference schedule, no doubt thought they’d breeze through the Big West and got caught a little too overconfident against Northridge.
Tonight, I expect the Gauchos to be very focused against an inferior Irvine squad that has lost four of its last five, including a 93-83 defeat at Cal State-Fullerton on Friday. It’s an Anteaters squad that’s also 5-15 ATS in its last 20 conference games and 7-15 ATS in its last 22 at home.
Also, UCSB is in a bit of a payback situation here. Last year, the Gauchos beat the Anteaters twice in the regular season, winning 64-59 as a 2 ½-point road underdog and 71-62 as a six-point home favorite, then lost to Irvine 70-52 in the Big West tournament. UCSB averages 72.4 points per game on 45.1 percent shooting (40.6 percent from three-point land) and faces an Anteaters team that gives up 71.2 points while allowing foes to shoot a whopping 50.5 percent from the floor. UCSB, which is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings and 6-1 ATS in their last seven at Irvine, offers great value in this pick-em spot.
Scott Spreitzer
Washington State Cougars at USC Trojans
I'm playing the USC Trojans on Thursday night. I really enjoy watching the play of the Washington State Cougars under the direction of coach Tony Bennett. They look to score rather than pass the ball around the key, running down the shot-clock like they did when Dick Bennett was at the helm. And, they do it without sacrificing on the defensive end. But as much as I respect the Cougars, their schedule is really picking up. The Cougars are off to a 13-0 start and rank fourth in the polls. But they've played just one ranked opponent this season, escaping Gonzaga with a 51-47 win. Toss out other wins over Baylor and their win last weekend over Washington, and the Cougars have taken on one of the softest schedules of any ranked team in the nation. I believe the lack of serious competition will catch up to them this week. The Cougars own the stingiest defense in the nation, allowing less than 50 PPG. But this will be the most athletic team they've faced yet. And, the Trojans are battle-tested. USC took powerful Kansas and Memphis to the brink, losing both games by only four points. O.J. Mayo is in for a bounce back night in my opinion, after a rare rough outing against Stanford. Mayo is second in the Pac-10 in scoring at 20.1 PPG. The Trojans athleticism was too much for WSU in March (USC: 70-61), and I expect the same type of result tonight. USC gets the money on Thursday.
Play on: USC