Tommy Gold's NBA PLAYOFFS 2010.05.09 Picks (45-25-2, +17.11u)

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Boston Celtics

In the last game, the Boston were crushed at home. That crush started really early, making no sense for any under bet as both teams were just scoring and without any defense implementation. With a win by 29 points, where most of the difference was gain during the first quarter, the Cavs ended with a superb accuracy, and didn't had even to force any defense, as it wasn't necessary for the win. The key was aggressiveness from the Cavs, with a big entrance in the game, where they finish the first quarter with a 19 point lead.

Even without a high pace, both team were able to easily score, as the Cavs only wanted to increase the gap, taking the edge due to a bad defense and moral from the Celtics that seemed to accept the defeat only with a few minutes in the game. Even the Celtics had enough space to score their points, as they never had a big run and weren't able to stop the Cavs. With this, the Cavs didn't tried to stop the Celtics, as they never had their win at risk.

Today, it's unlikely to have another game like the last one. Big speeches have been heard by the Celtics, as they played the game with no ambition, like a regular season game, where they accepted the defeat to early. No champion can have this kind of mind. They can't allow the Cavs to play as they want, and need to be cohesive in defense, as they were in the first games in Cleveland.

The Celtics need to use their edge in the paint and even more, need to be aggressive in the defense. They can stop the Cavs team, unless LeBron, but if they shutdown the rest of the team they can fight for the win. The Cavs finally had a game that can give them a great boost and the return for their best shape. They were with a lack of mental confidence and chemistry lately, had big problems at home against the Celtics, winning one game with a bounce back and having a defeat in the another.

Today, the Cavs will probably enter the game less aggressive than the last game, as they already recover the lead in the series. A typical playoff game seems probable, with both teams with lots of cautions, weighted attacks, and big attentions in defense. It's unlikely to see one team gain early a big lead, so both team will play with defense.

Pick: Under 197 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

NBA PLAYOFFS (46-26-2, +17.02u) 2010.05.09 results recap:

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Boston Celtics: Under 197 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (97-87: WIN)
Phoenix Suns @ San Antonio Spurs: San Antonio Spurs -3.5 -105 (1.95) BetPhoenix (101-107: LOSS)

NBA 2010.05.09 finished 1-1 and -0.09 units lost/2 units risked on HDP & OU.
NBA 2009/2010 HDP & OU Record: 396-290-9, +72.51 units won (686 units risked)

NBA 2009/2010 Moneylines Record: 44-74, -0.69 units lost (118 units risked)