Tommy Gold's NBA PLAYOFFS 2010.05.11 Picks (47-27-2, +16.97u)

NBA 2009/2010 HDP & OU Record: 397-291-9, +72.46 units won (688 units risked)
NBA 2009/2010 Moneylines Record: 44-74, -0.69 units lost (118 units risked)

NBA PLAYOFFS (47-27-2, +16.97u) 2010.05.11 first pick: *

Boston Celtics @ Cleveland Cavaliers

Today we will have match 5 between the Celtics and the Cavaliers. In the previous 4 matches, we had 2 overs and 2 unders. It seems balanced?

No, only the unders were the kind of games as we should expect and easy bets. The first over, was due to a bounce back, and was lost by few points. In that game, the Cavs had a great third quarter with lots of points in their bounce back, in order to grant the win.

The other over was an abnormal game. There is no chance to see another game as that one, even thinking that the bookies are giving a big spread for the Cavs.

What happened in that game, was that since the first quarter, the Cavs were winning by 20 points, giving them an early win, where they just had to manage the game, with a good offense and without bother with defense. The Celtics were always behind the game, even scoring almost 100 points, had a big loss. It wasn't the typical playoff game, and between these 2 teams in playoffs, probably just happen once in a 100 games.

With the series tie, the Celtics will try to make an early lead as they did in the first two games in Cleveland. They were able to surprise the Cavs with a strong power in the paint. As they saw in the last game, their biggest chances is with a big defense, and the Celtics are the kind of team that can easily defend, due to big and experience players. At the road, they always try to use it, and in the playoffs, the defense have a special role. They will have to give the game a low pace, try to hold LeBron somehow, even with free throws, as he is the only player that the Celtics aren't able to stop.

The rest of the team, Doc Rivers can mount the team in the best way to stop the Cavs, holding them without spaces to shot. At Cleveland, there isn't much space to errors for the Celtics, if they want to win. They already won one game at Cleveland, knowing that a good defense is the key. In both games they won this series, they hold the Cavs for 86 and 87 points in each game, curiously both unders in this series.

The Cavs needed a great LeBron to win first game, and an absolutely aggressive mode to win the first game at Boston. However, the team can keep the same performance twice in a row, as the Celtics rapidly adjust to the Cavs game. The Cavs need to be smarter, find more faster a way to overcome Boston Celtics. At home, their defense is strong, and knowing that they will have big problems with the Celtics defense, it's vital to have a good defense as well.

This series is arriving to a determination part, where a mistake can ruin everything. At this point, Rondo it's a huge problem to the Cavaliers, and they will have to adjust a better defense, as they have to stop win without removing any defense to any other player of the Big Three. This game will be very tactical, where a bad read of the game, a late timeout or a bad 2 minutes for one player can throw all the season away.

Pick: Under 194.5 -110 (1.91) The Greek

* One unit each always.