Top 25 Over/Under Rated
By Scott Spreitzer
Sportspic
Each and every week throughout the college basketball season, I release my most overrated top-25 team, most underrated ranked team, and a team outside of the top-25 that we believe should be ranked. I do my best to provide a “Vegas” perspective, so that we might be able to take advantage at the betting window.
MOST OVERRATED RANKED TEAM: Villanova Wildcats
Jay Wright's team is out of the gates with a bang, ranked 7th in this week's AP Top-25 and off to a 10-0 SU start. We believe they should be ranked in the 15-20 range and here are some reasons backing it up: The schedule has been less than daunting. The Wildcats, according to KenPom are playing the nation's 209th ranked non-conference schedule. Their biggest win came against VCU, who got off to a mediocre 5-3 SU start and are a 2-OT win over Northern Iowa from suffering four losses in eight games. Villanova's 60-55 win over Michigan on November 25 means little with the Wolverines in a current 3-game losing skid, suffering losses to NJIT, Eastern Michigan, and Arizona. In fact, with the way Michigan has played of late, the 5-point win may take more from Villanova's resume than adding to it.
Phil Booth gives the team about 12 minutes per game, but only seven other players see more time on the floor than he does. The Cats own a 3-guard tandem at the top of their scoring charts, with Dylan Ennis leading the way at just over 12 ppg. They don't have a true go-to-guy on the offensive end and I do believe it'll cost them on occasion this season. And look who's next – a date on December 20 with Syracuse. The Orange may not be at their typical level at this point, but they will be looking for a signature, jump-starting win and could give Villanova more than they can handle, especially when Syracuse is on the defensive end of the floor. Of course, that game is a couple days away from the time of this post and we'll wait for the line to see if we get involved. But the point is, at 7th in the AP rankings, Villanova is our most overrated team in this week's rankings.
MOST UNDERRATED TEAM: Gonzaga Bulldogs
It's often tough to call a top-10 ranked team underrated, but we believe the Gonzaga Bulldogs could lay claim to being the fourth best team in college basketball. Only Kentucky, Duke, and Arizona, rank higher than the Zags in our power ratings. And Gonzaga “just missed” in a 66-63 OT loss in Tucson on December 6.
This may be Mark Few's best team yet in Spokane. The Bulldogs can go nine-deep and have six players averaging between 17.5 ppg and 9.2 ppg. Of course, Kevin Pangos directs traffic on a team that scores 85.5 ppg with the nation's 2nd best shooting percentage of 54.3. They're just as tough on the defensive end, holding teams to less than 39% shooting, while out-scoring the opposition by an average of more than 25 ppg thus far.
We should note that Gonzaga is not afraid of all-comers. They beat a very good St. John's team at Madison Square Garden. And by the way, the 7-point win remains the only loss thus far on the Red Storm's schedule. The Zags whipped UCLA 87-74 at Pauley Pavilion, and as mentioned, came just short in Tucson against Arizona.
Besides (PG) Pangos, Gonzaga can be dominant up front with Domantas Sabonis, Przemek Karnowski, and leading scorer Kyle Wiltjer, along with the extremely deep backcourt. After a home game against Cal Poly this weekend, the Bulldogs take on BYU in Provo on Saturday, December 27. That may be a very nice spot to back the road team Zags, quite possibly under-valued, thanks to BYU's home court history. For now, Gonzaga is this week's most underrated ranked team.
UNRANKED “SNUBBED” TEAM: Northern Iowa
The gang from Cedar Falls came close to being installed as my “Snubbed” team two weeks ago. But here they are, sporting a 9-1 SU mark with their only loss coming in OT to VCU, finally making the list. Like usual, the Panthers don't have a plethora of scorers. In fact, just two players average in double figures. But the team is once again fundamentally sound and play a fierce brand of basketball on the defensive end where they allow just 59 ppg.
Ben Jacobsen is able to employ tough defense because he has recruited the perfect players for his style. No less than nine players average at least 15 minutes played per game and not a single player clocks as much as 29 minutes of action. And while they're known for lower scoring games, the Panthers can shoot the rock, making 48% of their FGA, while canning 38.5% of their 3-pointers.
This is team-workaholic and their next opponent, the Iowa Hawkeyes better be careful on Saturday. UNI hasn't faced the Hawkeyes since an 80-73 loss to the Hawkeyes in December of 2012, getting out-scored 26-14 at the FT line...more than the difference in the game. But the game means a lot to Jacobsen's troops and the Northern Iowa program has split the last four games with their “big brothers” from the Big-10. Iowa has their issues on the offensive end and we may jump in with Northern Iowa in this weekend's clash. The Northern Iowa Panthers can get into the top-25 with a win on Saturday. For now, they are this week's snubbed team.