Top 3 Tips For Betting The NBA Playoffs
By Teddy Covers
I closed out last season on a 39-17 NBA run, cashing in for myself and my clients consistently throughout the nearly two full months of playoff action. In this article, I'll divulge three key “Las Vegas wiseguy” secrets for picking NBA winners in the postseason.
Tip No. 1: Be aware of the zig-zag theory
The zig-zag theory is very simple and it's a “must understand” component of NBA playoff handicapping. The theory goes as follows: just bet on the team that lost their last playoff game.
The thought process behind the theory is simple as well: the team that just lost is likely to dig deep and produce a strong effort, before they fall into a deeper hole. Meanwhile, the team that just won is likely to make fewer adjustments and be a tad bit complacent heading into the next game.
The betting marketplace respects this theory tremendously. That's why you'll normally see a shorter pointspread in the first game following a playoff blowout. In addition, you'll often see the weaker of the two teams favored if they return home facing an 0-2 series deficit after losing the first two games on their opponent's home court.
Wiseguy bettors know that the zig-zag theory is going to influence pointspreads throughout the postseason. They'll understand why and how the oddsmakers are making adjustments to the spread from game to game as a series progresses.
Tip No. 2: Be aware of flaws in the zig-zag theory
The zig-zag theory does very well in competitive series. For a prime example, look no further than the brutal seven-game marathon between Orlando and Boston in the Eastern Conference semifinals last year. The zig-zag bettors cashed in almost every game.
But the zig-zag theory tends to fail in less competitive series, where one team has a clear advantage over their opponent. The Cleveland Cavaliers were a good example of this failure last playoff season, as they cruised to a 7-0-1 ATS mark in sweeping their first two series against the Pistons and Hawks. When there is a confidence differential and/or a talent differential, the zig-zag theory tends to crash and burn.
The zig-zag theory also fails when a team is simply priced incorrectly by the betting marketplace. Bettors got crushed trying to zig-zag against the Denver Nuggets last spring, as George Karl's squad covered the spread in their first 10 playoff games on their way to series wins over New Orleans and Dallas. At the time, bettors just didn't respect the Nuggets as much as they should have, leaving Denver as an undervalued commodity for weeks on end.
Blindly betting the zig-zag theory is a 50/50 proposition at best. The key for bettors is to determine which are the competitive series where the zig-zag will work and which are the mismatch series where the zig-zag is likely to fail.
Tip No. 3: Don't overvalue home courts
Every talking head on TV talks about the importance of the home court in the postseason. You'll repeatedly hear nonsense like, "Look for Team A to protect their home court in Game 5." But the home court edge is already fully factored in to every pointspread in every game.
Playoff teams are here because they can win on the road. The very best teams - the teams that are most likely to win a playoff series or two - tend to have winning records on the road, consistently beating teams in hostile environments.
Boston, Cleveland, Orlando, Miami, Utah, Portland, Oklahoma City, Los Angeles, Phoenix, Dallas and San Antonio - 11 of the 16 playoff teams - finished the regular season with a winning SU record on the road. The vast majority of those teams had winning ATS records on the highway as well.
Last year in the NBA Finals between the Magic and Lakers, the home team covered only one pointspread in the entire series. Orlando won Game 7 SU and ATS at Boston, then covered two out of three on the road at Cleveland in the Eastern Conference finals.
The best teams - the teams that you're most likely to make money with in the postseason - are the type of teams that tend to win games and cover spreads in hostile environments.