Total Talk - Sweet Sixteen
By Chris David
Last year’s NCAA Tournament saw 14 of the top 16 seeds advance to the Sweet Sixteen, as the top tier programs in the country battled back and forth on the hardwood. This year, only seven of the top 16 seeds will be playing this weekend. Cinderella is definitely alive this March in the brackets and at the betting counter. Even though the favorites produced a 31-17 straight up record over the opening weekend, the underdogs responded with a 25-22-1 mark against the spread.
Looking at the two records, you can see that there were eight instances when the favorite won but did not cover. However, seven of those occurrences happened in the first round on Thursday and Friday. Butler’s 54-52 win over Murray State on Saturday afternoon watched the Bulldogs advance over the Racers but they failed to cover the 4 ½-point spread.
Will we see teams winning again this weekend, yet not covering? If you feel the lines are too tight, then perhaps you should check out the totals, which saw the ‘under’ go 25-23 in the first two rounds.
The most intriguing matchup in the Sweet 16 comes out of the East Regional, where No. 1 Kentucky will battle No. 12 Cornell from the Carrier Dome in Syracuse. Some pundits believed the Big Red were valued too low and they were right, as the team knocked off higher seeds No. 5 Temple (78-65) and No. 4 Wisconsin (87-69) to advance past the opening weekend. The ‘over’ easily cashed in both of Cornell’s victories, with the closing totals listed at 122 and 126 respectively. Can the Big Red get off against Kentucky on Thursday?
Handicapper Brian Edwards, who is on a 9-0 run with his tournament picks, believes that Cornell and Kentucky will be a high scoring affair.
He said, “I’m real high on this Cornell-Kentucky game to go ‘over.’ I was fortunate to get it at 143 early Sunday night, but I still like it at 147 (where it’s hovering now). The Big Red’s offense was ridiculously efficient in blowout wins over Temple and Wisconsin. And seriously, when you think defense, are their two more prominent programs that come to mind moreso than Wisconsin and Temple? Cornell had 72 points on Wisconsin with 10:53 left in the second half before it started icing the clock. Guess how many times the Badgers gave up more than 72 points in 40 minutes, much less 29, in the rest of their games? Twice in 33 games! Wisconsin-Green Bay had 88 points on Wisconsin in a game that went to OT (75 in regulation) and Gonzaga put up 74 on the Badgers.”
“Cornell scored 78 against Temple, which gave up more than 74 just once this season (88 to Kansas). As for Kentucky, I backed the ‘over’ for a winner in its 90-60 win over Wake Forest on Saturday night. The ‘Cats hung 101 on ETSU in the first round. I made this number 151 and feel real strong about the ‘over’ on this matchup”
Surprisingly, the total on this game isn’t the highest on the board. That honor goes to the other late-night battle on Thursday between Xavier and Kansas State. The ‘over/under’ is hovering between 153 and 154 points, and this will be the second meeting (see below) between the two schools this year. Keep in mind that there were five games in the opening round that had a closing total of 150 or more, and the ‘under’ produced a 4-1 (80%) record.
Not all of the games this weekend are expected to be shootouts. Two of the potential grinders occur in the late-night session on Friday, when Northern Iowa meets Michigan State and Duke squares off against Purdue. The total on the Panthers-Spartans matchup is sitting between 120 and 121, while the Blue Devils-Boilermakers matchup is hovering between 128 and 129.
Head coach Mike Krzyzewski and Duke have been known as a high-scoring team that pushes the pace and shoots the long ball in prior seasons. While this team can run, it’s been said by Coach K that this group is one of his better defensive squads. The Dookies are deceivingly big and they pound the glass with four players listed at six-foot-eight or taller, including seven-foot center Brian Zoubek.
“The ’under’ is on an 11-3 run in Duke’s last 14 games, 6-2 for Purdue in its last eight games (all w/o Hummel, as he was hurt early in that eighth game at Minny). Obviously, the Boilers are not as effective offensively without a 15 PPG scorer in Hummel. Blue Devils not necessarily a grinder team but they are so often up by double-digit margins at the 8:00 mark of games and at that point, Coach K likes to put the ball in the freezer. This is Duke’s third-lowest total of the year. In both games with totals in the 120s, the ‘under’ prevailed”, explained Edwards.
Even though the pace and style of the game might be there with these low totals, keep in mind that 12 out of the first 48 games in the opening weekend had a number of 130 or less and the ‘over/under’ went 6-6 in those affairs.
Let’s take a quick look at the eight games in the Sweet Sixteen.
Thursday, Mar. 25
Butler vs. Syracuse (138): Butler lives and dies by the 3-ball, along with its sound defense. They put up 20 bombs in the first two rounds but Syracuse’s 2-3 zone only gave up five treys to Vermont and Gonzaga, two teams with just as much ability from the outside than the Bulldogs. The Orange offense tends to go through motions at times, but they still posted 87 and 79 in their first two tournament games. Butler is on an 8-2 ‘under’ run, but Syracuse has watched the ‘over’ go 6-1-1 in its last eight.
Washington vs. West Virginia (142): This battle is another example of two different styles going head-to-head. The Huskies like to get out and run, evidenced by their 80 and 82-point performances in the first two rounds while West Virginia likes to settle it down and lives in the paint and on the glass. The Mountaineers have given up 60 points or less in five straight games, which has helped the ‘under’ cash in all five.
Xavier vs. Kansas State (153): Out of the eight games slated in the Sweet 16, this is the only matchup where the teams met in this year’s regular season. Kansas State blasted Xavier 71-56 on Dec. 8 from Manhattan in a game that could be summed up as ugly. The Wildcats missed 17 free throws (23-of-40) and was just 4-of-17 (24%) from 3-point land. Even more disappointing was Xavier, who was worse from the field (29%) and it missed a dozen free throws too. A lot has changed since the Musketeers were held to their lowest point total of the season.
Cornell vs. Kentucky (147): Cornell and Kentucky both saw the ‘over’ go 2-0 in their opening round games, which was helped with some hot 3-point shooting from the Big Red (17) and Wildcats (22). If these teams hit their outside shots and get to the free-throw line again, this one could cash easily. Depth could be a factor for Cornell, which would make you believe head coach Steve Donahue will slow it down. One thing that isn’t being talked about much on this matchup is Kentucky’s defense, which is holding teams to 37.9% shooting. ETSU posted 71 points in a game that was over at half, while Wake Forest managed only 60 points.
Friday, Mar. 26
Tennessee vs. Ohio State (134): The Volunteers have shown the ability to play fast or slow, but Bruce Pearl’s team stresses defense. UT held San Diego State and Ohio to a combined 38.2 percent from the field and were fortunate to only give up 13 shots from 3-point land. The Buckeyes have more playmakers on offense than the Aztecs and Bobcats, including Big 10 Player of the Year Evan Turner (20 PPG). Turner has been aided by sharpshooter Jon Diebler (10 treys) all season long and that could be the difference here. The Buckeyes are on a 4-1 ‘over’ run heading into this game.
St. Mary’s vs. Baylor (142.5): The Gaels and Bears both have the ability to run ‘n gun, evidenced by their total marks on the season. St. Mary’s has watched the ‘over’ go 16-13, while Baylor has seen the ‘over’ go 18-9 and that includes a current 11-3 run. The total on this game opened at 145 and has since dipped to 142 ½ at a lot of betting shops in Las Vegas. Everybody knows that Baylor will push the tempo and it is playing close to home in Houston, but St. Mary’s has posted 80 and 75 points in their first two games. The mid-week line drop tells you that somebody hammered the ‘under’ hard, but the reasoning isn’t very clear considering the styles here.
Northern Iowa vs. Michigan State (121): Even though the Panthers like to slow it down, both of their first two games went ‘over’ the number. The offense hit nine 3-pointers in both wins over UNLV (69-66) and Kansas (69-67), plus their defense couldn’t keep up with their season average of 55 PPG, which was ranked second nationally. Michigan State has started hot in its first two wins, putting up 40 and 48 in the first halves against New Mexico State and Maryland respectively. Both teams have shot well, but what happens when the buckets don’t drop?
Purdue vs. Duke (129.5): As Brian Edwards pointed out above, Duke has been a serious ‘under’ team and Purdue’s offense is limited these days. If you want to beat the Blue Devils, you better shoot a serious percentage from the field and get to the free throw line. We know the Boilers haven’t been lighting up the scoreboard lately and what’s more disturbing is that they only earned 25 trips to the free throw line in their last two games, six coming in the win over Texas A&M. And as good as Duke’s 3-point shooting has been this year, the team has only gone 9-of-30 (30%) in the tournament.
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