Tournament News and Notes Friday 3/25

East Region Semifinals
By Judd Hall

The road to the Final Four will get a little clearer on Friday night when the East Regional semifinals get underway at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. It all gets started at 7:15 p.m. EDT when the Golden Eagles take on North Carolina (28-7 straight up, 15-16-1 against the spread).

Most sportsbooks have installed UNC as a 4½-point favorite with a total of 149½. That’s down form the opening line for the Tar Heels as five-point faves with a total of 147. The Golden Eagles can be taken at plus-180 (risk $100 to win $180) for the upset.

The Tar Heels has had a more difficult road to the Sweet Sixteen than they expected. Long Island gave them all they could handle in a 102-87 win in the second round. And just last Sunday, UNC held on for dear life to get a 86-83 victory over the Huskies. North Carolina got through both games, but failed to cover the spread on either occasion. In fact, the Heels are 6-1 SU and 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games this season.

Tyler Zeller has been the top scorer for Roy Williams’ team so far in the big dance, averaging 27.5 points per game. John Henson is also been a force for the Heels in this tourney with 38 points scored over the second and third rounds. If Zeller and Henson can keep up their solid play, then Harrison Barnes will apply the dagger from the perimeter. The true freshman from Ames, Iowa went 4-of-7 beyond the three-point line against Washington.

Marquette (22-14 SU, 18-12 ATS) is coming into this game as one of the last two Big East schools standing in the regional semifinals. The Golden Eagles have no doubt earned their spot in this contest after rolling over Xavier in the second round and holding off third-seeded Syracuse to reach the Sweet Sixteen.

The Golden Eagles upending the Orange wasn’t all that surprising since they beat Jim Boeheim’s club back in January. What was surprising is Marquette won despite being outshot from the field (55%-41%). Buzz Williams’ crew shot 82 percent from the free throw line and forced the Orange to turn the ball over 18 times in the game.

Jimmy Butler will most likely be tasked with matching up with UNC’s Barnes. That could be a strong advantage for Marquette since Butler was able to steal the ball three times last Sunday against Syracuse. Meanwhile, Darius Johnson-Odom is going to have to perform in the clutch for the Golden Eagles to reach the Elite Eight. Seeing that he put in the go-ahead three-pointer with just under 30 seconds in the game, Johnson-Odom will have no issues putting the team on his back.

There isn’t much recent history between these teams, having just met once back in 2001. The Tar Heels rolled on to an 84-54 win in that contest as 15-point home favorites. The combined 138 points just scraped ‘over’ the closing total of 134.

Marquette has been a single-digit underdog on 11 different occasions this season. In those contests, the Golden Eagles are 4-7 SU and 8-3 ATS with the ‘under’ going 8-3.

North Carolina is 14-3 SU in games as a single-digit “chalk.” However, they are just 8-9-1 ATS in those spots. The ‘under’ is 10-8 during that stretch.

The nightcap in Newark is sure to get a lot of attention as No. 1 overall seed Ohio State (34-2 SU, 18-15 ATS) takes on the Wildcats.

The oddsmakers initially opened the line for this game with the Buckeyes as 5½-point favorites with a total of 139. Bettors have pushed that up for OSU as a six-point favorite with the total bumping up to 140. For gamblers looking to take fourth-seeded Kentucky (27-8 SU, 14-15-1 ATS), expect to get a plus-200 (risk $100 to win $200) return on their investment.

Out of all the teams left standing in the NCAA tournament, the Buckeyes have arguably been the most impressive team. OSU outpaced the Roadrunners 75-46 in the second round. And then they dismantled George Mason 98-66 in the third round in Cleveland last Sunday in a game where they could have went well over 100 points for that game if Thad Matta didn’t call off the dogs. Needless to say that the Bucks have helped their backers in the first two games of this tourney and in the Big Ten title game against Penn State, covering the spread on all three occasions. The ‘over’ is the right play with them as well, evidenced by a 7-3 mark in their last 10 games.

Jared Sullinger is the top target of the opposition when playing against Ohio State, but not many are having success in containing him. The true freshman leads the team with 17.1 PPG for the year, and is averaging 14.5 PPG in the big dance. But you also have to contend with deadly three-point accuracy from Jon Diebler (50% this year), Dallas Lauderdale’s presence down low, and David Lighty (25 points vs. Patriots). Add in William Buford (18.0 PPG in the last three games) and freshman Aaron Craft doling out the ball (15 assists vs. Patriots), and you a group that has not been stopped all that often.

The Wildcats aren’t exactly chopped liver as they enter this game. They got all they could handle from Princeton in the second round of the tourney, and only pulled away late against the Mountaineers last Saturday in a rematch of the East Region final of a year ago. John Calipari’s team has been helping bettors a lot recently by going 8-0 SU and 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight matches of the season. Also, the ‘under’ is 5-2-1 in that stretch.

Brandon Knight bounced back from a lackluster performance against Princeton with 30 points, three boards and four helpers. Josh Harrellson has been a force for Kentucky in the NCAA tournament with 15 points in each of the first two games with 18 rebounds to boot. Harrellson and Terrence Jones (12 points, 10 rebounds vs. WVU) will be vital to UK’s chances in this game by matching up with Sullinger and Lauderdale to win the battle down low.

Ohio State hasn’t been a single-digit favorite much this season, but are a solid play when labeled as such. The Buckeyes are 6-1 SU and ATS in the seven times they’ve been single-digit faves this year. The ‘over’ has posted a strong 6-1 mark in those games as well.

It’s awfully hard to gauge anything on Kentucky as an underdog since it’s happened just twice in the 2010-11 campaign. The Wildcats won and covered on both occasions with the ‘under’ going 2-0.

vegasinsider.com

Southwest Region Semifinals
By Brian Edwards

The Southwest Regional semifinals will be held at the Alamodome in San Antonio, where No. 1 seed Kansas will take aim at 12th-seeded Richmond at 7:25 p.m. Eastern on Friday night. .

Most betting shops, as of Thursday morning, were listing Kansas (34-2 straight up, 17-16-1 against the spread) as a 10½-point favorite with a total of 136. Gamblers can back the Spiders to win outright for a monster plus-550 return (risk $100 to win $550).

Bill Self’s team advanced to the Sweet 16 by beating up on Boston U. and Illinois in Tulsa. The Jayhawks shook off a sloppy first half to capture a 72-53 win over the Terriers, but they were unable to cover the number as 23½-point favorites. BU gave an excellent account of itself, fighting tooth and nail with KU in the first half. The Terriers had several different leads in the first 20 minutes and trailed by just four at intermission.

Brady Morningstar provided KU with a spark early in the second half, scoring several buckets en route to a 13-point effort. Marcus Morris had a team-high 16 points and nine rebounds against BU.

The Jayhawks made amends to their backers Sunday night, knocking off Illinois 73-59 as 8½-point ‘chalk.’ Markieff Morris made 10-of-13 shots from the field and finished with 24 points and 12 rebounds. His brother Marcus added 17 points and 12 boards.

Richmond (29-7 SU, 21-12 ATS) is on fire with nine consecutive wins both SU and ATS, including Friday’s 69-66 come-from-behind win over Vanderbilt. Kevin Anderson took the game over in the second half, hitting three straight 3-pointers during a 12-0 run. Anderson finished with a game-high 25 points for the Spiders, who held Vandy without a basket for the last 4:52.

Richmond took on Morehead State as a 4½-point favorite Sunday. Chris Mooney’s squad took a double-digit lead early in the first half and was in control from there. The Spiders took the cash once again in the 65-48 win.

Justin Harper scored a game-high 19 points, while Anderson had 14 points, four assists and three rebounds. Dan Geriot chipped in with 13 points and seven boards.

Richmond has been an underdog seven times this season, going 5-2 both SU and ATS. The Spiders posted outright wins as ‘dogs in games at Purdue, at Seton Hall, at Dayton and vs. Temple and Vandy on neutral courts.

Kansas has been a single-digit favorite 10 times, compiling a 4-5-1 spread record.

The ‘under’ is 19-12-1 overall for Richmond, cashing at a lucrative 7-0-1 clip in its last eight outings. On the other hand, KU has seen the ‘over’ go 20-14 overall, although we should note a 5-2 run for the ‘under’ in the Jayhawks’ last seven games.

Tip-off on TBS is scheduled for 7:25 p.m. Eastern.

Following KU-Richmond, a pair of double-digits seeds will square off when Florida State (23-10 SU, 16-10-2 ATS) and Virginia Commonwealth collide. FSU won more NCAA Tournament games last weekend than it won in the 13 previous seasons combined.

Leonard Hamilton’s team took out Texas A&M by a 57-50 count as a one-point favorite last Friday afternoon. Derwin Kitchen scored a team-high 15 points and also had seven rebounds and three assists in the school’s first NCAA win since beating Billy Tubbs’ TCU team way back in 1998.

Then on Sunday night, the Seminoles jumped all over Notre Dame early and often and cruised to a 71-57 win as 4 1/2-point underdogs. They hooked up money-line backers with generous payouts in the plus-180 range (risk $100 to win $180).

Bernard James was the catalyst against the Irish, producing 14 points, 10 rebounds and three blocked shots. Michael Snaer added 13 points and four assists, while Kitchen finished with 10 points and six rebounds.

VCU (26-11 SU, 16-20 ATS) became the first team in NCAA Tournament history to win three games in one week. Not only did the Rams win three in a row, but they rolled to blowout wins by double-digits margins against USC, Georgetown and Purdue.

Shaka Smart’s squad started its week in Dayton with a chip on its shoulder. VCU and UAB had both taken a verbal pounding from the media for being included in the 68-team field. The Rams showed they belonged by drilling Southern Cal 59-46 as four-point underdogs.

VCU was even more impressive Friday when it blasted Georgetown 74-56 as a 5½-point underdog. Brandon Rozzell erupted for a game-high 26 points by draining 6-of-10 attempts from 3-point range. Joey Rodriguez added 17 points, seven assists, two steals and committed just two turnovers.

VCU was an even healthier underdog Sunday night vs. Purdue, which closed as a 9½-point ‘chalk’ at most spots. But it was more of the same for the Rams, who led the Boilermakers by 10 at halftime and coasted to a 94-76 victory.

Bradford Burgess scored a team-high 23 points and pulled down eight rebounds. Rodriguez was outstanding against, scoring 12 points while dishing out 11 assists without committing a turnover. Ed Nixon was another of the six double-figure scorers, finishing with 11 points and six assists.

VCU owns a stellar 9-4 spread record in the 13 games as an underdog. Meanwhile, FSU has a 6-2-2 ATS mark in 10 games as a single-digit favorite.

The ‘under’ has cashed in four straight FSU games and six of its last seven. Totals have been an overall wash for VCU (17-17), but the ‘under’ is on a 7-3 run in its last 10 outings.

vegasinsider.com.

Marquette, North Carolina collide
By: Willie Bee

(11) Marquette Golden Eagles vs. (2) North Carolina Tar Heels
East Regional Semifinals - Newark
Time/TV: Friday, March 25, 4:15 p.m. (PT) CBS
Odds: Tar Heels by 4½, total at 149½

Marquette, one of only two Big East schools to reach the Sweet 16, heads into the game against UNC on 4-1 runs straight up and against the spread that included tourney wins and covers last week over Xavier and Syracuse.

The Golden Eagles (22-14 SU, 18-12 ATS) went heavy to the 'under' in the season by nearly a 2:1 rate, and have cashed five in a row to the low side. They are 5-2 ATS and 6-1 'under' at neutral-site games this season, and covered eight of the 11 games in which they were underdogs.

North Carolina hasn't covered a spread since its regular season finale, an 81-67 home win versus Duke as slight 1½-point chalk. The Tar Heels (28-7 SU, 15-16-1 ATS) didn't cash either of last week's games, but they didn't miss by much beating Long Island 102-87 on an 18½-point closing line before topping Washington, 86-83, as 3½-point favorites. Both games went 'over' the total, giving high-side bettors the money for the fifth time in eight contests.

The Heels are 2-7-1 ATS on 10 neutral courts this season, including a 78-76 loss to Texas at the not-so-neutral Greensboro Coliseum in mid-December. UNC is 5-5 'over/under' in those 10 games, and is 12-14-1 ATS in games they were favored.

This is the first meeting between UNC and Marquette in over 10 years, and only the fifth overall. The Tar Heels are 3-1 SU in the previous four, winning the last three. Marquette's only win over North Carolina came in a 1977 Final Four matchup in Atlanta.

Kansas Jayhawks, Richmond tip Southwest
By: Stephen Nover

No knock on Richmond, but things couldn’t haven fallen any better for Kansas in the Southwest Regional of the NCAA Tournament.

The Jayhawks are 10½-point favorites against the Spiders in their Sweet 16 matchup Friday in San Antonio at 4:27 p.m. PT on TBS. It’s the largest spread of any of the games in the round of 16.

The ‘over/under’ is 136.

Gone from the Southwest Regional are second-seeded Notre Dame, third-seeded Purdue, fourth-seeded Louisville, fifth-seeded Vanderbilt and sixth-seeded Georgetown.

All this attrition leaves the top-seeded Jayhawks a clear path to the Final Four. Kansas, winners of 34 of 36 games, captured the Big 12 regular-season and won the conference tournament.

Eliminate 12th-seeded Richmond is the Jayhawks’ latest order of business. The winner of this matchup meets the victor of the Florida State-Virginia Commonwealth game on Sunday.

So far the Jayhawks haven’t shown they are vulnerable to an upset, something that happened to them last year in the NCAA Tournament when Northern Iowa defeated them, 69-67, as 11-point underdogs in the second-round.

That defeat ranks as one of the more disappointing in Kansas’ long-storied history. The Jayhawks have been all business in their first two Big Dance contests this year beating Boston University, 72-53, as 23½-point favorites and knocking out Illinois, 73-59, covering as eight-point ‘chalk.’

The combined 125 points in Kansas’ victory against Boston University went ‘under’ the 137½-point total. The combined 132 points in the Jayhawks’ defeat of Illinois also went ‘under’ the 143-point total.

The ‘under’ has cashed in 12 of Kansas’ past 15 NCAA Tournament games.

The Morris twins – Marcus and Markieff – have been dominant in the post for the Jayhawks combining for 72 points and 41 rebounds in the two victories. The pair average a combined 31 points and 16 rebounds per game.

The Jayhawks, winners of 10 in a row, are well-rounded with a solid point guard in Tyshawn Taylor and versatile wing players Brady Morningstar, Tyrell Reed and Josh Selby.

They’ve helped Kansas win its last four games by an average of 15.5 points. The Jayhawks averaged 81.8 points per game during the regular season, sixth-best in the nation.

Richmond coach Chris Mooney hopes to slow down Kansas’ high-potent offense with a matchup zone defense and a methodical, slow-down, Princeton style of offense. The Spiders, who start four seniors, held foes to 60.8 points per game, 18th-best in the nation. They are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games at neutral sites when taking points.

The Spiders’ strength is in the inside-outside combination of senior guard Kevin Anderson, the Atlantic 10 Conference Player of the Year for the second straight season, and 6-foot-10 senior Justin Harper, another all-league selection.

Harper leads the Spiders in scoring at 17.8 points per game. Anderson sparked Richmond’s 69-66 opening-round win against Vanderbilt with 25 points. The Spiders were three-point underdogs versus the Commodores with the combined 135 points pushing on the 135-point total.

Richmond then defeated Morehead State, 65-48, as 4 ½-point ‘chalk.’ The combined 113 points went ‘under’ the 123-point total. Morehead State had upset Louisville in an opening round game.

The ‘under’ is 9-1-1 in Richmond’s past 11 contests.

The Spiders are one of the hottest teams in the country having won and covered their last nine games, including capturing the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament. The Spiders are 29-7 overall.

Richmond is 14-4 ATS the past two years when getting points, including 6-2 ATS this season as an underdog.

It’s the first time since 1988 the Spiders have advanced as far as the final 16 teams. Richmond nipped Kansas, 69-68, when the teams last met in January of 2004.

Kentucky Wildcats, Ohio State preview
By: Willie Bee

(4) Kentucky Wildcats vs. (1) Ohio State Buckeyes
East Regional Semifinals - Newark
Time/TV: Friday, March 25, 6:45 p.m. (PT) CBS
Odds: Buckeyes by 5½, total at 140

Jared Sullinger was four the last time the Ohio State Buckeyes squared off against the Kentucky Wildcats, so it's doubtful he recalls much about the game. But if he did, he'd be playing with revenge on his mind after Kentucky thumped third-ranked Ohio State by an 81-65 count at the 1996 Rock-n-Roll Shootout holiday tourney in Cleveland.

It's been over 14 years since the two schools that have 35 Sweet 16 and 15 NCAA Final appearances between them – with less than 200 miles between campuses – last met. That oversight will be corrected Friday evening in New Jersey, oddly enough more than 1,200 miles combined from both campuses and in an arena that holds less than where Kentucky and Ohio State play their own home games.

CBS has the television coverage beginning around 6:50 p.m. (PT), a half-hour or less after the Marquette, North Carolina contest.

The 20th meeting all-time between the Buckeyes and Wildcats is exactly what most expected to see when the brackets came out on March 13. Three of the East's top 4 seeds – (1) Ohio State, (2) North Carolina and (4) Kentucky – made it to Newark with the only real upset in the region 11-seed Marquette knocking off 3-seed Syracuse to advance to the Sweet 16. Given how Big East schools have taken turns beating each other all season, that isn't much of an upset.

Ohio State, the AP's top-ranked team heading into the dance, cruised past Texas-San Antonio and George Mason in the Cleveland pod last week. The Buckeyes (34-2 straight up, 18-15 against the spread) had no trouble finding the net in either win, hitting more than 58 percent of their shots from the field (65-of-111) and sinking 28 of their 52 three-point attempts (53.8 percent).

Seniors Jon Diebler and David Lighty were big parts of the OSU offense in the wins and spread covers, first laying 25½ to the Roadrunners and then 11½ to the Patriots. Diebler, the Big Ten's all-time three-point shooter, made his usual 50 percent from beyond the arc by hitting 4-of-8 in each game. Lighty was unstoppable in the George Mason game, sinking all seven of his long range tries on his way to a game-high 25 points.

If there was one facet of the game the Buckeyes struggled with, it was foul shots. Ohio State continued a recent trend of charity toss trouble by making just 15-of-26 (57.6 percent) in the two contests. Thad Matta's squad sank 25 of the last 43 free throws (58.1 percent) they took in the Big Ten Tournament. Assuming the Wildcats give the Buckeyes a tougher time than UTSA or George Mason, it's something to watch.

Kentucky (27-8 SU, 15-14-1 ATS) also had its statistical downfall at the line in getting past Princeton and West Virginia last week in Tampa. The Wildcats shot well from the field in both games, just under 50 percent combined and nearly 38 percent from three-point range. But missing five of their 11 free throws in the 59-57 victory over Princeton almost cost John Calipari's young bunch who was favored by 13 against the Tigers.

The Wildcats returned closer to season form in the 71-63 triumph versus the Mountaineers by making 17-of-24 (70.8 percent), just below their 71.5 percent season average.

Ohio State and Kentucky shared three common opponents during the regular season, two from the SEC and one from the Big Ten. The Buckeyes and Wildcats each won and covered double-digit spreads in their lone meetings against the South Carolina Gamecocks. Ohio State beat Indiana twice on the floor and at the window while Kentucky won and cashed its matchup with the Hoosiers.

The Buckeyes scored an impressive road win at Florida as three-point underdogs very early in the season. The Wildcats went 2-1 SU versus the Gators that included winning the SEC Championship Game, the two teams splitting the odds 1-1-1.

Florida State, VCU Rams clash at Alamodome
By: Willie Bee

(11) Virginia Commonwealth Rams vs. (10) Florida State Seminoles
Southwest Regional Semifinals - San Antonio
Time/TV: Friday, March 25, 6:57 p.m. (PT) TBS
Odds: Seminoles by 3½, total at 131

Looking for the top stat of this tournament? Look no further than two mid-majors from the city of Richmond, VA, (VCU and Richmond) making to the Sweet 16, the same number of teams as the Big East pushed into regional action this week.

Virginia Commonwealth (26-11 SU, 16-20 ATS) has been crowned this tourney's official Cinderella...for now, as it's a tiara Richmond could very well wear eventually. The Rams won three games last week as 'dogs to reach this matchup. The 94-76 rout of Purdue while getting 9½ really punctuated the improbable week as VCU hit a season-best 56.9 percent of its shots from the field after netting 33.9 percent and 40.9 percent in the wins over USC and Georgetown.

The Rams started the season covering just one of their first three neutral-court games, but have gone 4-2 ATS in that situation since the regular season ended. VCU's eight neutral-site games to have an official total went 5-3 'over.' The 2010-11 Rams are 9-4 as the underdog.

Florida State matching up with VCU in this one certainly has its share of irony since the Seminoles (23-10 SU, 16-10-2 ATS) fell to Virginia Tech in the ACC Tournament who were one of the schools many thought should have been invited to the dance over VCU.

The Seminoles are off a pick 'em win over Texas A&M and the upset of Notre Dame as five-point underdogs, a most impressive showing by FSU's vaunted defense in holding the Irish to just 57 points.

Florida State has cashed its last five, going 'under' in six of the last seven. The 'Noles will be playing just their sixth neutral-site game, going 4-1 TS and 'under' the previous five, and were 9-4-2 on the season beating the spread as favorites.

College Basketball Knowledge

Marquette won four of last five games, upsetting Xavier/Syracuse to get to this points; Eagles are 9-3 vs spread as an underdog this year. North Carolina won 10 of last 11 games but is 1-4-1 vs spread in last six games as favorite. ACC road favorites of less than 8 points are 11-9 vs spread. Big East non-conference road underdogs of 5 or less points are 5-9 vs spread. Last four times an 11-seed played in regional semifinal, favorite was 4-0 vs spread in that game. Nine of last ten Marquette games stayed under the total.

Richmond covered its last nine games, with seven of last eight staying under total; Spiders are 6-2 vs spread as an underdog this year. Kansas shot 51-52% in winning first two tourney games by 19-14 points; teams attack the Spiders inside, and Jayhawks have just the players to hurt Richmond there. Over last 3+ years, favorites are 16-8 vs spread in this round, Since 2003, 12-seeds are 1-5 vs spread in regional semis. A-14 double digit road dogs are 9-11 vs spread this season. Big 12 double digit favorites are 19-17 vs spread.

#1 seeds other than Duke covered 20 of their last 31 games in this round. Ohio State was 28-50 from arc in two wins (by 29-32 points) last week, making it tougher to double Sullinger in post. Buckeyes beat Florida by 18, South Carolina by 22 in their two games vs SEC foes. Kentucky won both its games as an underdog this season (Washington/Lousiville)- last one was New Year's Eve. Big 11 non-conference favorites of 6 or less points are 10-16 vs spread. SEC road underdogs of 5 or less points are 12-7 vs spread.

Since 1987, in regional semi games without a #1-4 seed in them, the dog is 12-6 vs spread. VCU beat Wake Forest 90-69 in its only game this year against an ACC team. Rams won/covered first three tourney games by 18-18-13 points, despite being dog in all three. Florida State got its best player (Singleton) back last week and crushed Notre Dame; FSU is #1 defensive team in country, but Rams have four seniors in the rotation, FSU only one. VCU-Florida State are playing first-ever game between #10-11 seeds in tournament history.

Other Tournaments

Santa Clara (-6) beat Rice of C-USA 66-65 back in November; Broncos won six of last seven games, are 5-2-2 vs spread in last nine games as a dog. SMU allowed just 56.3 ppg in winning its last three games; six of its last seven games stayed under total. Mustangs are 4-6-1 vs spread in last 11 games as a favorite. C-USA home favorites of 7 or less points are 5-7. WCC road underdogs of 5 or less points are 11-6 vs spread.