Butler meets top seed Pitt
By: David Schwab
Eighth-seed Butler will try and carry the momentum from Thursday's last-second win in Thursday's opening round into Saturday's Southeast Region matchup against the top-seeded Pittsburgh Panthers. The Bulldogs are eight-point underdogs in the 4:10 p.m. (PT) tip from Washington DC's Verizon Center and the game will be broadcast nationally on TBS.
Butler did not come into this year’s NCAA Tournament with the same credentials of last year’s team that finished two points shy of winning a national title, but it served notice in a win over Old Dominion that it has every intention of trying to make deep run this time around as well. The Bulldogs needed a tip-in by senior forward Matt Howard at the buzzer to come away with a 60-58 win as a one-point underdog in a game that featured 21 lead changes.
Howard’s game-winning shot was part of a 15-point scoring effort that also included five rebounds. He led Butler this season with 16.7 points and 7.8 rebounds a game and remains its biggest threat underneath.
Junior guard Shelvin Mack also scored 15 points and dished out a game-high five assists in the winning effort. He is the team’s second leading scorer with 15.2 points a game and is averaging a team-high 3.6 assists a game.
Butler is shooting 44.6 percent from the field and 36.1 percent from three-point range. It is averaging 73 points and 35 rebounds a game. It shot 40.7 percent and pulled down 27 rebounds in the win over the Monarchs.
Pittsburgh won the Big East regular season title but made an early exit from the conference tournament with a 76-74 loss to Connecticut in the quarterfinals as a 5 ½-point favorite. The hangover from that loss carried itself into the Panthers’ game against North Carolina-Asheville on Thursday as they only led by five points at the half. Pitt then found another gear in the second half, cruising to a 74-51 win as an 18½-point favorite.
Junior guard Ashton Gibbs led the charge by scoring 20 of his game-high 26 points in the second half to help put the game away. Gibbs has been the go-to guy all year long for Pitt, averaging a team-high 16.7 points a game. Senior guard Brad Wanamaker, the team’s second leading scorer with an average of 12 points a game, was held to just six points by NC-Asheville Bulldogs, but should have a much bigger impact in Saturday’s game against these Bulldogs.
Pittsburgh is averaging 74 points a game and is ranked fourth in the nation in rebounds with 40 a game. Butler did a great job under the boards against ODU, which is another solid rebounding team but it will have its hands full trying to win this battle against a very physical Panthers’ team.
Butler is 3-1 against the spread in its last four games and is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall. The total has stayed ‘under’ in six of its last seven games.
Pittsburgh is 3-2 ATS in its last five games on the road and is 4-2 ATS in its last six games overall. The total has stayed ‘under’ in eight of its last nine game overall.
Both these teams are averaging well over 70 points a game but Bookmaker.com has set the ‘over/under’ at 128 which still begs a play on the ‘under’ in what should be a low-scoring defensive battle. Butler is also a solid pick at plus eight as it will give Pitt all it can handle in this game.
Wisconsin, Kansas State collide in desert
By: Stephen Nover
Did you really think Belmont could upset Wisconsin in the first-round of the NCAA Tournament?
That didn’t happen with the Badgers winning 72-58 on Thursday as four-point favorites with the combined 130 points going ‘over’ the 128-point total. Belmont came into the game putting up 79.7 points per contest, 13th-best in the nation.
There was a lot of anti-Wisconsin sentiment going into that matchup after the Badgers were blown out by top-ranked Ohio State, 93-65, as eight-point road ‘dogs in their final regular season game.
The Badgers followed that up with an embarrassing, 36-33, loss to Penn State as 7½-point favorites in their opening Big Ten Conference Tournament matchup.
But now oddsmakers believe the fourth-seeded Badgers are back on track installing Wisconsin as a 2½-point favorite against fifth-seeded Kansas State in a second-round Southeast Regional game in Tucson, Ariz., Saturday at 5:40 p.m. PT on TNT. The ‘over/under’ is 127.
This is the 13th straight year Wisconsin has made the NCAA Tournament, the last 10 under Bo Ryan. The Badgers, however, are 2-9 ATS the past 11 times they’ve been favored on a neutral court.
Guard Jordan Taylor and 6-foot-10 forward Jon Leuer are outstanding players for Wisconsin. Taylor averages 18.1 points per game and led the nation with a 4.2 assist-to-turnover ratio.
The Badgers, though, are in trouble if they’re not connecting from three-point range. They missed 19 of 21 from beyond the arc against Penn State, but connected on 12 of 22 versus Belmont.
Taylor made five-of-nine 3-pointers against Belmont in scoring 21 points. Leuer scored a game-high 22 points.
Wisconsin is among the worst at defending the 3-pointer ranking 315th. The 24-8 Badgers are very strong in other areas, though.
Wisconsin is the best foul shooting team in the country making 82 percent of its free throws. The Badgers also rank No. 1 in assists-to-turnover ratio committing less than eight turnovers per game and rates third in the country in defense giving up only 58.3 points a game.
The ‘under’ has cashed in nine of Wisconsin’s past 11 non-conference games. The Badgers have also gone ‘under’ 70 percent of the time during their past 65 games following a pointspread cover.
Kansas State entered the tournament winning eight of its last 10. But the Wildcats, 23-10, also lost in their conference tournament opener. Colorado defeated Kansas State in a first-round Big 12 Conference Tournament game, 87-75. The Wildcats were two-point favorites with the combined 162 points going ‘over’ the 147 ½-point total.
It has been an up-and-down season for the Wildcats. They were 12-3 entering their Big 12 slate. The Wildcats then dropped five of their first seven league games before getting hot, including upsetting then No. 1 Kansas, 84-68, as six-point home ‘dogs. Jacob Pullen scored a career-high 38 points.
Starting with that huge emotional beating of Kansas, the Wildcats have won seven of eight, going 6-2 ATS.
Pullen, a senior guard, leads the Wildcats in scoring at 19.6 points a game and also is No. 1 on the team in assists and steals.
Battling a flu bug, Pullen scored a game-high 22 points and dished off five assists in Kansas State’s, 73-68, opening NCAA Tournament victory this past Thursday against 12th-seeded Utah State. The Wildcats were two-point favorites with the combined 141 points going ‘over’ the 128 ½-point total.
Pullen lacked energy against Utah State despite his fine statistics, Kansas State coach Frank Martin said.
Pullen, whose physical condition obviously is a big key, played against the Badgers in the 2008 NCAA Tournament in Omaha, Neb. Wisconsin defeated Kansas State, 72-55, as 4½-point favorites.
Pullen, a freshman at the time, was held to four points in 22 minutes on two-of-seven shooting from the floor.
Kansas State is 3-7 ATS the last 10 times it has been an underdog. The Wildcats are 4-9 ATS following a straight-up victory.
The ‘over’ has cashed in four of Kansas State’s last five games. The Badgers also have gone ‘over’ in four of their past five matchups.
Aztecs, Owls in Tucson tussle
By: Willie Bee
They both took care of business with wins and covers as first-round favorites. Now the San Diego State Aztecs and Temple Owls will lace up their sneakers for Saturday's matchup to decide who heads to Anaheim next week as part of the West Region's Sweet 16 field.
TNT will broadcast Saturday's contest from McHale Center in Tucson starting a little past 3:10 p.m. (PT). The Aztecs are six-point favorites with 125-126 for the game total on the Don Best odds screen.
If Temple is going to pull the outright upset, the Owls will become just the second team to take down SDSU this season. Both of the Aztecs' losses came at the hands of Jimmer Fredette and the BYU Cougars during the regular season, something Steve Fisher's squad avenged with a 72-54 shellacking of the Cougars in the Mountain West Tournament Championship Game. Ranked in the top 10 of both polls since just before Christmas, the MWC title lifted the Aztecs to a 2-seed in the West Region.
San Diego State (33-2 straight up, 21-12 against the spread) took care of business in its Thursday opener with another 18-point triumph, knocking off Northern Colorado 68-50 as 14½-point chalk. Kawhi Leonard posted his 23rd double-double of the campaign with a team-best 21 points along with 10 boards. Billy White also enjoyed twin perks on the stat sheet with 12 points and 13 rebounds.
Fisher's crew let the Bears hang around for the first 25 minutes or so of the game, thanks in large part to Devon Beitzel's game-high 25. James Rahon helped the Aztecs kick it in gear with nine of his 12 points in the final 13 minutes.
The 'under' 130 cashed easily, the fourth low-side winner in SDSU's last five games.
Temple (26-7 SU, 17-15-1 ATS) had to battle back from an early nine-point deficit to nip Penn State on Juan Fernandez's late jumper, 66-64. Fernandez scored the Owls' final four points on his way to a season-high 23, teammate Ramone Moore matching that point tally for Temple who won the game on 13-of-15 shooting from the line while Penn State converted 4-of-6 free throws.
Early backers of the Owls got in on a cover laying 1½ points before the line closed at two for an official 'push.' It was a relatively easy win for 'over' 118½-point bettors, the fourth time in the last five Owls games to jump the total.
The win stopped an 11-game NCAA Tournament losing skid for Temple head coach Fran Dunphy, a skid that started while he was running another Big 5 program at Penn.
San Diego State's victory over Northern Colorado was its very first at the dance, leaving the Aztecs 1-3 now in NCAA Tournament games under Fisher. That mark should improve to 2-3 once the horn sounds at the end of this matchup.
The key number in this one is 20, as in San Diego State winning its 20th away from home this season and picking up its 20th 'under' for totals bettors. Aztecs 65-56.
Saturday's Tampa Tips
By Brian Edwards
The second round of the 2011 NCAA Tournament will begin Saturday afternoon in Tampa at 12:15 p.m. Eastern when Kentucky (26-8 straight up, 13-15-1 against the spread) takes on West Virginia at the St. Pete Times Forum. This is a rematch for the Wildcats, who lost to the Mountaineers in the Elite Eight last season.
Most betting shops have installed UK as a 3 ½-point favorite with a total of 132. Gamblers can back West Va. (21-11 SU, 13-16 ATS) on the money line for a plus-145 return (risk $100 to win $145).
Brandon Knight waited until the 40th minute and UK’s final possession to get his first bucket in Friday’s way-too-close-for-comfort win over a game Princeton squad. Knight got into the lane off the dribble to his right and banked home a runner to give the ‘Cats a 59-57 win over the Tigers, who easily took the cash as 13-point underdogs. The 116 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 132-point total.
Darius Miller scored a game-high 17 points for the winners, while Josh Harrelson came up big with 15 points, 10 rebounds and four steals. Terrence Jones wasn’t especially productive but he did get into double figures with 10 points, and he hit a huge 3-pointer at crunch time.
WVU fell behind Clemson early in their first-round showdown early Thursday afternoon. However, Bob Huggins’ bunch made a late first-half run that was capped by a long 3-ball from Kevin Jones to knot the game at 40-40 at intermission.
It was all Mountaineers early in the second half, too, as the Tigers appeared to tire due to their quick turnaround after beating UAB late Tuesday night. WVU ran its lead to double digits, although Clemson did pull back within three ((74-71) in the final two minutes. Nevertheless, the ‘Neers held on for an 84-76 victory as 2½-point favorites.
Darryl ‘Truck’ Bryant scored a team-high 19 points, while Jones finished with 17 points and nine rebounds. Joe Mazzulla, who was the catalyst in last year’s win over UK when he scored a career-best 17 points, had 12 points and seven assists against Clemson.
WVU has been an underdog seven times this season, compiling a 3-4 spread record. Meanwhile, Kentucky has posted a 6-10-1 ATS mark in 17 games as a single-digit ‘chalk.’
For the third time in the last six years, Florida (27-7 SU, 15-14-1 ATS) and UCLA will square off in the NCAA Tournament. In 2006, the Gators ran away from the Bruins for a 73-57 win as one-point favorites in the national-title game.
Then in 2007, these programs met at the Ga. Dome in the national semifinals. Once again, it was all UF in a 76-66 triumph that wasn’t near as close as the final score indicated. The Gators took the cash as three-point favorites.
Billy Donovan’s squad has won 11 of its last 13 games with the only losses coming at Kentucky and to the ‘Cats in the finals of the SEC Tournament. The Gators jumped all over UC-Santa Barbara early and often in Friday night’s first-round game. They took an early double-digit lead and never looked back, winning by a 79-51 count as 12 ½-point favorites.
All five Florida starters shared the ball, as evidenced by each taking between five and nine shots. Junior point guard Erving Walker led a balanced attack with 18 points and six assists. Kenny Boynton added 13 points, making 6-of-9 shots from the field. Chandler Parsons, the SEC Player of the Year, tallied 10 points, 10 assists and seven rebounds.
UCLA led by as many as 23 points but had to hold off a furious rally from Michigan St. to collect a 78-76 win as a 1 ½-point underdog. Tyler Honeycutt scored 16 points, grabbed six rebounds, dished out five assists, blocked three shots and picked up a pair of steals. Malcolm Lee also had 16 points, while Reeves Nelson had a double-double with 12 points and 10 boards.
Ben Howland’s team has been an underdog eight times, going 4-4 ATS. Meanwhile, UF has gone 6-7 versus the number in 13 games as a single-digit favorite.
B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets
Michigan owns an incredible 13-1 spread record in its last 14 games after blasting Tennessee 74-45 as a one-point underdog Friday. The Wolverines will now face Duke in the second round.
Florida State won its first NCAA Tournament game since 1998 when it beat Texas A&M 57-50 Friday in a pick ‘em affair. The last NCAA win came against a TCU team coached by Billy Tubbs. That victory came in the first year of Steve Robinson’s disastrous tenure in Tallahassee, although we should point out that he was coaching Pat Kennedy’s players that year.
Xavier point guard Tu Holloway sure did pick an inopportune time to play the worst game of his collegiate career Friday night. Holloway was horrible all night, shooting an abysmal 1-of-8 from the field while committing as many turnovers (five) as he had points (five). Give credit to Marquette, which won a 66-55 decision in a pick ‘em affair. Buzz Williams had a masterful gameplan that his kids executed to perfection. Williams is a throwback and the hardest working man in the coaching profession. (Translation: I'm pissed the Musketeers, who I had going to the Elite Eight, got sent home early but I'm happy for Williams.)
How telling is it that Craig Sager’s pink outfit at Friday’s game in Tulsa didn’t even surprise me in the least? SERIOUSLY, ‘Sages,’ get a life!
vegasinsider.com.
Saturday's D.C. Tips
By Judd Hall
The second round of the NCAA tournament opened up with some great buzzer-beaters. It finished up with games that could help put you to sleep. As far as gamblers are concerned, the favorites went 11-5 SU and 8-8 ATS to keep us on our toes for the rest of the weekend. Totals players saw the ‘under’ go 7-6-3.
Saturday’s third round action at the Verizon Center in Washington, D.C. is loaded up with three teams from the Big East.
It all starts up at 7:10 p.m. EDT on TBS with Butler (25-9 straight up, 15-14-2 against the spread) facing off with the top-seeded Panthers in the Southeast Region. Most sportsbooks have posted Pittsburgh (28-5 SU, 15-13 ATS) as a 7½-point favorite with a total of 128½. The Bulldogs can be taken for the win at plus-280 (risk $100 to win $280).
The Bulldogs were an intriguing play for their second round matchup with Old Dominion as you had to wonder how they’d handle being back in the big dance. Coming off of a defeat in the national title game can leave quite a hangover. That wasn’t the case on Thursday afternoon as Butler dropped the Monarchs 60-58 as a 1½-point underdog.
Matt Howard has been the best player for Butler this season, and yesterday was no different. Howard pushed through 15 points and five boards against ODU, including the winning shot at the buzzer to advance. Shelvin Mack also threw in 15 points with five assists in the winning effort.
The Panthers had plenty to handle with UNC-Asheville in their tournament opener on Thursday afternoon, but pulled away in the second half for a 74-51 win as 18-point favorites. Ashton Gibbs had a field day on the ‘Dogs in this one, scoring 26 points. Pitt also held an incredible 44-24 rebounding advantage against UNC-Asheville.
Butler is an underdog for the second time in as many games for this tourney and seventh time for the season. They are now 4-3 SU and 5-1-1 ATS with the ‘over’ going 5-2 in those tests.
Pittsburgh has been impressive as a single-digit “chalk” this season by going 11-3 SU. They’re just so-so for our purposes with a 7-7 ATS record. The ‘over’ is 9-5 in that stretch.
Either Wisconsin or Kansas State will await one of these teams in the Sweet Sixteen in New Orleans next week.
The nightcap guarantees us at least one team from the Big East team will make the regionals as the Bearcats take on Connecticut (27-9 SU, 19-11 ATS) at 9:40 p.m. EDT on TBS. The Huskies have been tabbed as three-point favorites with a total of 129½ on Friday afternoon. Cincy is listed at plus-135 (risk $100 to win $135) to pick up the win.
There were more than a few people expecting the Huskies to have a let down in their opener against Bucknell. How could you not expect that after winning five games in five days? But UConn held its ground and then some in a 81-52 shellacking of the Bison as a 10½-point favorite on Thursday night. Kemba Walker nearly had a triple-double with 18 points, 12 assists and eight rebounds. Super freshman Jeremy Lamb took Bucknell for 16 points and a pair of boards.
Cincinnati (26-8 SU, 15-13 ATS) got the benefit of playing a Missouri team that can’t play a lick of defense in Thursday’s D.C. finale. That helped the Bearcats roll on with a 78-63 win over the Tigers as one-point favorites. Yancy Gates drove Cincy to the win with his 18 points and 11 rebounds against Mizzou. Meanwhile, Dion Dixon grabbed six boards off the glass to go along with his 16 points.
The selection committee tries its best to keep teams from the same conference from meeting so soon in the tournament. That just wasn’t going to happen after they put 11 teams in from the Big East.
These two teams met back on Feb. 27, where the Huskies pulled out a 67-59 win over Cincinnati as 3½-point road pups. The Bearcats actually held tough through the first half of the game, trailing 30-27. But Walker scored 11 of his 16 points in the second half to put the match out of reach. Gate scored 14 points with eight rebounds in a losing effort for Cincinnati.
The Huskies are 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS in the last four head-to-head meetings.
Cincy has only been an underdog eight times this season, and they’ve not fared well in this role. The Bearcats are 3-5 SU and ATS when listed as ‘dogs this year. The ‘under’ has posted a quality 6-2 mark in those battles for totals players.
UConn has gone 8-5 SU and 6-7 ATS when posted as a single-digit favorite this season. The totals sat still at 6-6-1 for that time as well.
The winner of this game will take on either Temple or San Diego State at the Honda Center in Anaheim for the West Region semifinals.
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Saturday's Tucson Tips
By Kevin Rogers
With the tournament field cut to 32 following Friday's action, now we start getting towards the better matchups in the NCAA Tournament. The Tucson pod tips things off in the early evening on the East Coast with a pair of contests involving all four teams with at least 22 victories. We'll start with a team that needed a shot in the final seconds to advance to the third round against second-seeded San Diego State.
(2) San Diego State vs. (7) Temple
The bottom part of the West regional starts things off at the McKale Center with a pair of upstart clubs trying to making the jump to the Sweet 16. San Diego State won its first NCAA tournament game since 1968 in Thursday's 68-50 trouncing of 15-seed Northern Colorado as 14 ½-point favorites. The Aztecs look for another victory against a Temple squad that beat cross-state rival Penn State 66-64 on a game-winning basket by Juan Fernandez.
San Diego State has won 13 of 14 following the victory over Northern Colorado, while cashing in five of the last six games. The Aztecs are a strong play when laying single-digits by compiling a 9-2 ATS mark this season, including six of those covers away from Southern California. Steve Fisher's defense is performing at a high level by limiting four of the last five opponents to 54 points or less, resulting in four 'unders.'
The Owls are on fire as well with wins in 13 of the previous 15 contests with one of those setbacks coming at Duke. Temple was listed as an underdog just seven times this season, while putting together a pedestrian 3-4 ATS mark. However, Fran Dunphy's team pulled off 'dog victories over Maryland and Georgetown in non-conference play. Temple went 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS against tournament teams in the regular season, including a neutral-site triumph as a favorite over Georgia.
It's been a while since the Owls have reached the Sweet 16, as Temple tries to escape the first weekend since 2001. Both the Atlantic 10 and the Mountain West start the round of 32 with two teams each remaining, as Richmond and BYU are also alive to represent these conferences.
The Aztecs are listed as six-point favorites, while the total is set at 125 and the game can be seen on TNT. The winner will move on to Anaheim for the Sweet 16 to battle the winner of Cincinnati and Connecticut on Thursday night.
(4) Wisconsin vs. (5) Kansas State
The night concludes with a fantastic matchup between the Big 10 and Big 12 as the Badgers take on the Wildcats. Wisconsin took care of Belmont on Thursday, 72-58 to cash easily as four-point favorites. Meanwhile, K-State held off a feisty Utah State squad, 73-68 as two-point 'chalk' to advance to the second round (now third round) for the third time in four seasons.
The Badgers eliminated the Wildcats in the 2008 NCAA Tournament in the only meeting ever between the two schools, 72-55. Wisconsin shot 52% from the floor, while holding superstar Michael Beasley to 23 points as the Badgers covered as 4½-point favorites. Bo Ryan's team lasted only one more round in that tourney by falling to Stephen Curry's Davidson Wildcats in the Sweet 16 as five-point 'chalk,' 73-56.
Wisconsin snapped a two-game skid with the blowout win over Belmont, while improving to 3-5 ATS the last eight games. The Badgers have profited nicely as a single-digit favorite this season with a 10-5 ATS ledger, as five of those covers came away from Madison.
Kansas State bounced back from a loss in the Big 12 tournament to Colorado with the victory over Utah State as Jacob Pullen led the way with 22 points. The Wildcats find themselves in the underdog role as Frank Martin's club is 3-5 ATS when getting points. The only positive is K-State has won outright as 'dogs in each of the previous three opportunities against Kansas, Nebraska, and Texas, including the last two on the highway.
The Badgers are listed as 2½-point favorites, while the total is set at 126 as the game can be viewed on TNT. The winner of this game moves forward in the Southeast Region against the team that comes out of the Pittsburgh/Butler contest on Thursday.
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Saturday's Third Round Preview and Picks
(5) West Virigina Mountaineers vs. (4) Kentucky Wildcats
THE STORY: This rematch of last year’s East Region final promises plenty of drama. Kentucky, ranked No. 1 last year, was stunned by West Virginia and eliminated one game short of reaching the Final Four. Although the two schools share a common border, they aren’t regular combatants; this is only their third game in the last five years, with Kentucky winning two of those. It features two accomplished coaches – West Virginia's Bob Huggins and Kentucky's John Calipari – who are good friends and fierce competitors. The game promises a contrast in styles, with Kentucky’s fast-paced offense trying to set the pace over a more methodical West Virginia team known for its gritty defense. Don’t expect either of these teams to look as out-of-sorts as they did in their first-round games. West Virginia’s highly regarded defense didn’t show up until the second half against Clemson. And Kentucky was unable to use its wide advantage in talent to shake loose from Princeton.
TV: 12:15 p.m. EST, CBS. ODDS: Kentucky -3.5
PREDICTION: West Virginia 68, Kentucky 65 -- Kentucky's lack of tournament experience may be the determining factor. That's not a problem for West Virginia, whose roster is laden with experience.
(7) UCLA Bruins vs. (2) Florida Gators
THE STORY: The last time Florida faced UCLA in the NCAA tournament it won the 2006 national title. While the two teams built huge leads in their NCAA Southeast region openers on Thursday, their paths to Saturday’s third-round matchup turned out to be very different. The second-seeded Gators dominated UC-Santa Barbara from the opening tip to the final horn to win its first tournament game since they won the second of back-to-back national titles in 2007. UCLA, however, watched nearly its entire 23-point lead evaporate but survived to post a two-point win over Michigan State. The Bruins’ hopes seemed to be hanging by a thread until a Spartan turnover in the final seconds.
TV: 2:45 p.m. ET, CBS. ODDS: Florida -5.5
PREDICTION: Florida 78, UCLA 70: Both the Bruins’ strengths and weaknesses were evident against Michigan State. UCLA’s carelessness with the ball and poor foul shooting will be difficult to overcome against the Gators, especially in Tampa.
(12) Richmond Spiders vs. (13) Moorehead State Eagles
THE STORY: Richmond and Morehead State put the madness into March early in this year’s tournament, but only one will know the sweetness of the big dance’s second weekend. The winners of Thursday’s two biggest upsets will meet Saturday in Denver with a berth in the Southwest Regional semifinals on the line. No. 13 seed Morehead State defeated Louisville, 62-61, getting a clutch 3-pointer from Demonte Harper with four seconds left and a blocked shot at the buzzer from Kenneth Faried. No. 12 seed Richmond’s win over Vanderbilt was only slightly less dramatic, as the Spiders overcame a nine-point deficit in the second half and held on thanks largely to Kevin Anderson’s heroics. The diminutive guard scored 16 of his game-high 25 points in the second half, including a teardrop floater with 18.7 seconds left that gave Richmond just enough breathing room.
TV: 5:15 p.m. ET, CBS ODDS: Richmond -3.5
PREDICTION: Richmond 64, Morehead State 61 – Neutralizing Faried on the offensive glass will be a challenge, but the Spiders’ combination of 3-point shooting and stingy defense should propel them to the Sweet 16. Vanderbilt is the only team during Richmond’s winning streak to top 60 points.
(7) Temple Owls vs. (2) San Diego State Aztecs
THE STORY: Two days after winning its first-ever NCAA tournament game, No. 2 seed San Diego State aims to continue its record-breaking season Saturday against seventh-seeded Temple in Tucson, Ariz. While the Aztecs used a strong second half to pull away from No. 15 seed Northern Colorado on Thursday, Temple needed some last-second heroics from Juan Fernandez to edge No. 10 seed Penn State and advance to the West Region’s third round.
TV: 6:10 p.m. EST, TNT. ODDS: San Diego State -5.5
PREDICTION: San Diego State 71, Temple 66 –With Allen and Jefferson down low, the Owls present a strong matchup for San Diego State’s formidable frontline. The Owls will make Leonard and White work for their points, meaning Gay needs to break out of his recent slump and help stretch the Temple defense. Rahon could play a key role for the Aztecs; the Owls have struggled to defend 3-point shooters all season. Given Tucson's proximity to San Diego, the Aztecs will likely have a large contingent of fans in the McKale Center.
(1) Pittsburgh Panthers vs. (8) Butler Bulldogs
THE STORY: After barely surviving its NCAA opener, Butler hopes to regain its giant-slaying magic of 2010 when the Bulldogs take on Pittsburgh in the Round of 32 Saturday. The game matches two of the nation's most respected young coaches, Brad Stevens of Butler and Jamie Dixon of Pittsburgh. The top-seeded Panthers overpowered No. 16 UNC-Asheville 74-51 Thursday. All-Big East guard Ashton Gibbs scored 20 of his 26 points in the second half as Pitt pulled away. The eighth-seeded Bulldogs improved to 14-10 all-time in NCAA play by edging Old Dominion 60-58 Thursday on Matt Howard's putback at the buzzer. It was a typical defensive effort by Stevens' Bulldogs, as they held Old Dominion eight points below its average.
TV: 7:10 p.m. ET, TBS. ODDS: Pittsburgh -7.5.
PREDICTION: Pittsburgh 71, Butler 66 -- In its NCAA opener, Pitt showed it has regained focus after a season-ending slump. Butler would have to dominate in the paint to offset Pitt's edge in the backcourt, and it's hard to see that happening.
(11) Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. (3) BYU Cougars
THE STORY: Brigham Young and Gonzaga will get a head start on their upcoming West Coast Conference rivalry when the two schools square off in Denver on Saturday with a Sweet 16 berth on the line. The third-seeded Cougars are departing the Mountain West for the WCC, a league the 11th-seeded Bulldogs have dominated for more than a decade. Nothing like an NCAA tournament contest to get the competition churning, and this matchup features perennial NCAA tournament darlings Gonzaga against ever-popular Jimmer Fredette of the Cougars. The Bulldogs won their 10th straight game while beating St. John’s on Thursday, while BYU set a school record for victories in season by defeated Wofford.
TV: 7:45 p.m. ET, CBS. ODDS: Gonzaga -1
PREDICTION: Gonzaga 81, BYU 76 – The Zags again click on all cylinders and dominate the interior with the Cougars missing Davies to end Fredette’s fabulous college career.
(5) Kansas State Wildcats vs. (4) Wisconsin Badgers
THE STORY: Wisconsin and Kansas State put together solid, workman-like efforts to advance to Saturday’s Southeast regional battle in Tucson, Ariz. Wisconsin held Belmont to almost 22 points below its average and 6-of-22 from 3-point range for a 72-58 victory. Kansas State’s pressure bothered Utah State in the first half and the Wildcats pushed their lead to double figures before settling for a 73-68 win.
Wisconsin’s junior Jordan Taylor and Kansas State senior Jacob Pullen are two of the best point guards in the country and both teams have the ability to take over a game at any time. Both teams boast impressive wins, too. Wisconsin topped Ohio State, and Kansas State beat Kansas.
The teams met in the 2008 NCAA tournament, with Wisconsin rolling over the Wildcats, 72-55.
TV: 8:40 p.m. ET, TNT. ODDS: Wisconsin -2.
PREDICTION: Wisconsin 60, Kansas State 55 – Kansas State has the ability to dominate inside, but the Badgers can win the game with their outside shooting and more efficient offense.
(3) Connecicut Huskies vs. (6) Cincinnati Bearcats
THE STORY: With a record 11 teams in the NCAA tournament, the Big East figures to be the biggest bully of March Madness. But two of the conference's best will beat up on each other Saturday, when No. 3 seed Connecticut takes on No. 6 seed Cincinnati in a West Region game at Verizon Center in Washington, D.C. The Big East tournament champion Huskies look to make it seven consecutive wins this postseason, while the Bearcats are in search of their first Sweet 16 trip since 2001.
TV: 9:40 p.m. ET, TBS ODDS: UConn -3.5
PREDICTION: Connecticut 69, Cincinnati 61 — Walker's supporting cast is coming of age, and the Bearcats' lack of quality depth doesn't bode well.
College Basketball Knowledge
West Virginia beat Kentucky in regional final LY; Mountaineers won 11 of last 16 NCAA games- Huggins is 8-1 vs Calipari, whose cousin was the paramedic who saved Huggins' life when he had his heart attack in Pittsburgh airport. WVU beat Vandy by 3 in its only game vs SEC foe this year. Wildcats are 2-1 vs Big East teams, beating Notre Dame by 14, losing by 17 to UConn, beating Louisville by 15. Kentucky won its last seven games, Since 1999, underdogs are 16-7 vs spread in second round games between 4-5 seeds.
Florida won 11 of its last 13 games, with both losses to Kentucky; win over UCSB Thursday was Gators' first in NCAAs since winning title in '07- they were up 43-19 at half. Young UCLA club led Michigan State by 23 with under 9:00 left in first round but won by only a hoop- they were 30-47 from line vs State, and are still just 4-3 in last seven games. Pac-10 road underdogs of less than 6 points are 4-8 vs spread this year. SEC road favorites of less than 6 points are 3-7. Since '05, #7-seeds are 10-5 vs spread in second round games against #2-seeds.
Morehead State-Richmond is 10th second round game between 12-13 seeds in NCAA history; in the previous nine, the favorite went 8-1 vs spread. OVC has a team (Eastern Kentucky) that uses lots of Princeton principles that Richmond does; Morehead split with EKU this season, with win in OT, and EDU wasn't very good. Spiders won 12 of last 13 games, including last eight in row; they held last six of last seven foes under 60 points, have four seniors in their rotation with 2,000+-point scorer in Anderson. Since 2007, favorites of 5 or less points are 20-13 against the spread in this round.
Temple is 13-2 in its last 15 games, nipping Penn State for Dunphy's second NCAA win in 14 tries; Owls are 3-4 as underdog, failing to cover their last three tries. San Diego State won its first-ever NCAA tourney game Thursday; Aztecs won last six games (5-1 vs spread), with four of last five staying under total. Atlantic 14 road dogs of 7 or less points are 15-13 vs spread this year. MWC road faves of 7 or less points are 7-10. #2 seeds covered six of eight second round games the last two tourneys. This figures to be low-scoring, as Temple plays #245 pace, San Diego State plays #296, and both teams are in top 40 nationally in defense.
Butler won its last ten games, but they're 0-3 vs top 40 teams this year, losing by 12 to Duke, 2 to Xavier, 15 to Louisville. Bulldogs are ranked #11 team on defensive boards, Pitt is ranked 2nd on offensive boards, so if Bulldogs' first-shot defense works, that matchup will decide outcome. Pitt is just 4-3 in its last seven games, with four wins all by 10+ points. Big East road favorites of 8 or less points are 18-15 vs spread. Horizon League single digit road dogs are 11-13 vs spread this year. #1 seeds are 14-9-1 vs spread in this round the last six NCAA tournaments.
Over last three years, #3 seeds are 10-2 vs spread in second round, but during that time they were never a dog-- since 1987, #6 seeds who were favored over a #3-seed are just 2-5, both SU/vs spread. BYU is headed to WCC next year; they face WCC kingpin Gonzaga in this game, after Zags beat St John's team that played eight seniors. Gonzaga ranks #276 in experience (BYU is #101)- they shot 55% from floor, outrebounded Red Storm 41-17 Thursday. Fredette is an NBA player who can carry BYU offense for long stretches- they were only 6-22 from arc in win vs Wofford Thursday. MWC road dogs of 5 or less points are 4-5.
Kansas State won seven of last eight games; they make 37.1% of 3's, are 4th nationally in offensive rebounding (40/8%). Wisconsin made 12-22 from arc in win over Belmont; they're 3-5 in second-round games under Ryan. Since 1999, underdogs are 16-7 vs spread in second round games between #4-5 seeds. Big 11 road favorites of 4 or less points are 3-8 vs spread this season. Big 12 single digit road dogs are 8-12 vs spread this season. K-State is more athletic at every position but point guard, but Badgers' Swing Offense is tough to prepare for in 1.5 days.
UConn (+3.5) made 10-19 from arc in 67-59 win at Cincinnati Feb 27, which was Calhoun's first game back with team after his sister-in-law died. Cincinnati coach Cronin said his guards were "outplayed as badly as you can be outplayed" in that game. Huskies won their last six games behind explosive guard Walker, after stumbling to 4-7 finish in regular season. Bearcats won seven of last nine games, dismantling Missouri in first round, holding Tigers to just 37% from floor while turning ball over only 10 times vs Mizzou press. This is first time in 64+-team era that conference rivals have met this early in the tournament.
NIT Games
Boston College won five of last six games, with four of last five going over total; they had to win first-round game at McNeese State because BC's hockey team needed this arena. Eagles are 1-1 vs Big 11 teams this year, losing by 10 at Wisconsin, beating Indiana by 12. Northwestern is 1-6 in last seven road games, with only win at Indiana; Wildcats waxed Georgia Tech by 20, in their only game vs ACC foe. ACC home faves of 8 or less points are 6-9 vs spread. Big 11 single digit road underdogs are 12-6 against the spread this season.