Tournament News and Notes Saturday 3/26

NCAA Elite Eight Preview and Pick: Arizona vs. UConn

Arizona Wildcats vs. Connecticut Huskies (-3, 145)

THE STORY: Two teams that have surrounded their superstar with effective role players clash in the West Region final in Anaheim Saturday when No. 3 seed UConn and No. 5 Arizona meet for a Final Four berth. The Huskies knocked off San Diego State 74-67 behind junior guard Kemba Walker’s 36 points, while the Wildcats got a career-high 32 points and 13 rebounds from sophomore forward Derrick Williams in a 93-77 pasting of No. 1 seed and defending champion Duke. The superstars will get theirs again; this game comes down to which team’s role players step up. UConn freshman Jeremy Lamb can’t get any hotter after shooting 9 of 11 for 24 points in the regional semifinal. He and Walker combined for 36 of UConn’s 38 second-half points. Arizona boasts a bit more balance, with sparkplug guard Lamont “MoMo” Jones and underrated forward Solomon Hill leading a deeper supporting cast. UConn holds a 4-0 edge in the all-time series, but the programs haven’t played since 2005.

TV: 7 p.m. ET, CBS. ODDS: UConn -3

ABOUT ARIZONA (30-7, 19-15-1 ATS): After winning its first two NCAA games by a combined three points, the Wildcats exploded in the second half in routing Duke. Arizona showed its depth as nine players scored and seven played at least 12 minutes. Williams is the go-to guy and can score from anywhere. But the game turned when sophomore Lamont “MoMo” Jones started beating Duke defenders off the dribble; he either scored (16 points) or set up teammates (6 assists) for layups and open jumpers. The Wildcats, who entered the game ranked 12th nationally in 3-point shooting (39.6 percent), hit 9 of 15 against the Blue Devils. Junior guard Kyle Fogg only scored eight points, but he harassed national player of the year candidate Nolan Smith into 3-of-14 shooting. Look for Fogg to match up often against UConn’s Walker.

ABOUT UCONN (29-9, 21-11-0 ATS): Walker gets most of the attention, and deservedly so, but UConn wouldn’t be in the Elite Eight without the phenomenal play of freshman wing Jeremy Lamb. He’s hit 20 of 27 shots in the tournament, including 9 of 11 from beyond the arc. Lamb’s 3-pointer with 1:39 left against San Diego State gave the Huskies breathing room after the Aztecs cut a nine-point lead to one. Sophomore forward Alex Oriakhi’s relentlessness (10.7 rpg in the tournament) allows coach Jim Calhoun to play a smaller lineup with the 6-1 Walker, the 6-5 Lamb and 6-foot Shabazz Napier on the floor together. Walker is averaging 29.0 points in the tourney in part because he’s getting to the line, where he’s made 28 of 30. The Huskies have won eight straight dating to the start of the Big East tournament.

TRENDS:

- Wildcats are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 NCAA tournament games.
- Huskies are 7-1 ATS in their last eight NCAA tournament games.
- Over is 9-3 in Wildcats' last 12 NCAA Tournament games.
- Over is 9-3 in Huskies' last 12 NCAA tournament games.

UP NEXT: Winner advances to the Final Four in Houston.

PREDICTION: Arizona 75, UConn 72 – Under brilliant second-year coach Sean Miller, the Wildcats showed relentlessness and a killer instinct in putting away Duke. They’re deeper than the Huskies, and they won’t give UConn the open 3-pointers San Diego State did. Arizona holds opponents to 29 percent shooting from beyond the arc, which ranks fifth nationally. Lamb has been a revelation for UConn, but it’s hard to see the freshman continuing to shoot 74 percent from the field in this tournament.

NCAA Betting Preview: Butler faces Florida Gators
By: Stephen Nover

Even after last season’s near miss, the betting markets haven’t given Butler its proper due.

What else do the Bulldogs need to do to earn respect?

Butler, a mid-major power from the Horizon League, has won at least 20 games for six consecutive seasons. The Bulldogs nearly upset Duke in last year’s NCAA Tournament championship game, losing 61-59 as seven-point ‘dogs.

The 26-9 Bulldogs were underdogs in all three of their NCAA Tournament games this season, but have emerged to face Florida in the Southeast Regional final in New Orleans Saturday at 1:30 p.m. PT on CBS.

Florida, the second-seed in the regional, opened 3½-point favorites with an ‘over/under’ of 131, according to numbers posted Thursday night at Pinnaclesports.com.

Never mind the Bulldogs being seeded eighth in the regional. They probably shouldn’t have been an underdog to No. 4 Wisconsin. That was proven this past Thursday when Butler beat the Badgers, 61-54, as 4½-point ‘dogs. The combined 115 points dipped ‘under’ the 123-point total.

Butler reached that game by getting past Old Dominion, 60-58, as one-point ‘dogs in the first round. The combined 118 points went ‘under’ the 123½-point total.

The Bulldogs took out Pittsburgh, the top seed in the Southeast Regional, 71-70 as eight-point underdogs in the second round. The combined 141 points went ‘over’ the 125-point total.

Pittsburgh and Old Dominion were two of the best rebounding teams in the country, while Wisconsin ranked No. 1 in assist-to-turnover ratio.

These kind of big victories are nothing new for Butler, which knocked off Syracuse, Kansas State and Michigan State in the NCAA Tournament last year.

Few anticipated the Bulldogs being this close to another Final Four appearance after losing Gordon Hayward to the NBA’s Utah Jazz. But the Bulldogs still have star power with forward Matt Howard and guard Shelvin Mack.

Mack is averaging 19.3 points per game in the tournament while Howard is averaging 17 points a game.

Butler has won 12 games in a row going 8-3-1 ATS. Florida, however, also is a hot team. The Gators have won every game against teams not named Kentucky since January.

This includes NCAA Tournament victories against UC Santa Barbara, 79-51, as 12½-point favorites, 73-65 versus UCLA as 5½-point ‘chalk’ and getting past BYU and Jimmer Fredette, 83-74, in overtime this past Thursday as 2½-point favorites.

It was the Cougars who eliminated Florida in last year’s NCAA Tournament, 99-92, in double overtime during the first round.

Florida, 29-7, last reached a regional final in 2007 when it won the Big Dance for the second consecutive year.

The Gators have tremendous depth inside with Southeastern Conference Player of the Year Chandler Parsons, Vernon Macklin, Alex Tyus, Patric Young and Erick Murphy. They also have an excellent backcourt in Kenny Boynton, who had 17 points and five assists versus BYU, and playmaker Ervin Walker.

Florida coach Billy Donovan has a veteran team with all five starters back from last year. The Gators have posted 13 consecutive seasons of at least 20 victories.

The Gators are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games. One of their few weaknesses is free throw shooting. They rated 260th in the land during the regular season making only 66.4 percent.

However, during their first two NCAA Tournament games, the Gators sank 26 of 34 from the charity stripe for 76 percent. The Gators reverted back to their poor free throw shooting against BYU, though, making just 10-of-22 (45.5 percent) from the foul line. Butler is a 73.1 percent free throw shooting team.

The ‘under’ has cashed in seven of Butler’s last nine games. Florida has gone ‘over’ in 12 of its last 14 games, including all three in the NCAA Tournament.

NCAA Betting Preview: Arizona and Connecticut Huskies clash
By: Willie Bee

Neither team appeared to be on a collision course for a deep run in the NCAA Tournament just a few weeks ago. Both the Connecticut Huskies and Arizona Wildcats now look unstoppable as they prepare to tangle in Saturday's West Regional Final in Anaheim.

Tip-off at the Honda Center is slated for a little past 4 p.m. (PT) with CBS handling the broadcast duties. Connecticut opened as a 2½-point favorite with the total at 145.

Win or lose Saturday, Sean Miller's Wildcats will at least be remembered in this year's madness for denying the Duke Blue Devils a shot at repeating their 2010 championship. Arizona caught a few breaks and survived scares in getting past both Memphis and Texas by a combined three points to reach the Sweet 16 before dismantling Duke on Thursday, 93-77, with a huge second half.

The Wildcats (30-7 straight up, 19-15-1 against the spread) were 9½-point underdogs to the Blue Devils who took a six-point lead into halftime. Derrick Williams scored 25 of his game- and career-high 32 points in the first half to account for all but 13 of Arizona's points in the first 20 minutes. The Wildcats came together on a 19-2 run early in the second half, taking the lead for good at 54-53 on a pair of Lamont Jones free throws five minutes into the final stanza.

Kyrie Irving led the Blue Devils, seeded first in the region, with 28 points and played 31 minutes in his third game back from a toe injury. It was just the 11th game for the Duke freshman, and might have been his last with the NBA draft expected to call his name this summer.

A couple of hours before Arizona dumped Duke, Kemba Walker was once again leading UConn to the winner's circle in a 74-67 takedown of 2-seed San Diego State who was favored by a bucket. Walker played all 40 minutes and scored 36 points, nearly half of the Huskies' total, in helping Jim Calhoun's crew to its eighth consecutive postseason win and cover.

Jeremy Lamb also contributed heavily for UConn (29-9 SU, 21-11 ATS) with 24 points, hitting 9-of-11 from the field and all three of his shots from beyond the arc. Walker and Lamb also combined for 11 points from the free-throw line on 14 attempts. The Aztecs missed seven of the 13 foul shots they took while converting just seven of their 22 three-point tosses.

Walker has been absolutely amazing during UConn's run through the Big East Tournament and now the dance. The team's top scorer at 24.0 PPG, the senior guard is averaging over 27 per game during the Huskies' eight-game win streak.

Half of UConn's covers have been straight-up wins as the underdog. The 'over,' which cashed the 129½-point line in Thursday's victory, is 5-3 during the stretch.

Arizona and its backers have not fared well the last two times the Wildcats faced a Big East team at the NCAA Tournament. 'Zona was smoked by Louisville, 103-64, in the 2009 Sweet 16 with the Cardinals laying 10 in that contest. A year earlier, West Virginia was two-point chalk in a 75-65 triumph over the Wildcats. Both games went 'over' identical 139-point totals.

It's been five years since UConn last met a Pac-10 team on the hardwood, a double-Huskies matchup in the 2006 Sweet 16 versus Washington. Connecticut prevailed in overtime, 98-92.

The most recent meeting between UConn and Arizona came earlier that season at the Maui Invitational in Dec. 2005. Calhoun and the then-third ranked Huskies came away with a 79-70 triumph over the Wildcats who were ranked eighth at the time.

Neither team is listing any injuries for Saturday's tilt. The winner will move on to Houston for the Final Four next weekend and will face the eventual East Regional champion in the NCAA Tournament semifinals.

Florida vs. Butler
By Brian Edwards

NEW ORLEANS -- For the third time during Billy Donovan’s tenure at Florida, the Gators will face Butler in the NCAA Tournament. This time around, these schools will square off Saturday in the Southeast Region finals at the New Orleans Arena for the right to go to next weekend’s Final Four at Reliant Stadium in Houston.

Most betting shops have installed Florida (29-7 straight up, 17-14-1 against the spread) as a three-point favorite with a total of 132. Gamblers can take the Bulldogs to win outright for a plus-140 return (risk $100 to win $140).

UF has covered the number in all three of its NCAA Tournament games against UC-Santa Barbara, UCLA and BYU. Alex Tyus and Kenny Boynton were the key cogs in Thursday’s 82-73 win over the Cougars in overtime.

Tyus might have played the best game of his four-year career at the most opportune time. The senior power forward from St. Louis scored 19 points and dominated the glass with 17 rebounds. Tyus made 8-of-9 shots and his presence in the lane made Jimmer Fredette hesitant to come inside, resulting in the All-American shooting 15 shots from 3-point range.

Boynton showed no signs of a bad ankle that he sprained in last week’s 73-65 win over UCLA. He was up in Fredette’s mug for 40-plus minutes, forcing the Player of the Year candidate to miss 12 of his 15 attempts from 3-point range. Although Fredette scored 32 points, he didn’t get his first basket until the 6:17 mark of the first half.

Most importantly, Boynton locked down Fredette at crunch time. Fredette made the last bucket of his collegiate career with 2:53 left in regulation. In the extra session, Boynton forced two of Fredette’s six turnovers and contested both of his 3-point attempts that were way off the mark.

“[Boynton] was just contesting shots, he’s athletic, a good defender,” Fredette said. “They were really hedging hard on those ball screens, they were doubling or switching, or whatever it was. So they did a good job. I just didn’t make quite enough shots. I didn’t shoot the ball great, but credit their defense.”

But Boynton’s performance wasn’t limited to the defensive end alone. He buried a huge 3-pointer in OT to give UF some separation and a 75-70 advantage. Boynton finished with 17 points and five assists.

Erving Walker scored 16 points and dished out five assists, but his most important contribution was on the boards. That’s right, the five-foot, eight-inch Walker had six rebounds, including the most important board of the game.

With the game tied at around the 25-second mark at the end of regulation, Boynton missed a 3 from the corner but Walker gathered the offensive rebound. This allowed UF to take the final shot and prevented Fredette from being able to get a look at a potential game-winning shot.

Butler (26-9 SU, 18-13-2 ATS) advanced to the Elite Eight for a second straight year by beating Old Dominion, Pittsburgh and Wisconsin. On Thursday night in The Big Easy, Brad Stevens’ squad took control of the game early and never looked back in a 61-54 win over the Badgers that wasn’t nearly as close as the final score indicated.

Butler won its 12th consecutive game as a 4½-point underdog, hooking up money-line backers with a plus-170 payout (risk $100 to win $170). Matt Howard, who is a serious candidate to win NCAA Tournament MVP honors at this point, scored 20 points and pulled down 12 rebounds in another spectacular effort.

Shelvin Mack added 13 points, while Shawn Vanzant scored 10 points, dished out four assists and had a pair of steals. More than anything, it was all about defense for Butler, which forced Wisconsin’s Jon Leuerinto a miserable 1-of-12 shooting performance.

The combination of Vanzant, Ronald Nored and Mack forced Wisconsin star Jordan Taylor into four turnovers and a 6-of-19 shooting night. Taylor didn’t commit a single turnover in last week’s win over Kansas St.

Butler will be an underdog for the 10th time this year when it takes on Florida. In the nine previous situations, the Bulldogs have compiled a 7-1-1 spread record.

Florida is on an 8-1-1 ATS surge in its last 10 games. As a single-digit favorite this season, the Gators are 8-7 ATS but they are 7-2 versus the number in their nine such spots.

When these teams met in the 2000 NCAA Tournament, Butler was on the verge of pulling a 5/12 upset in overtime of a first-round meeting. However, the Bulldogs missed a pair of free throws while leading by one with 8.1 seconds remaining. The rest is an unforgettable part of NCAA Tourney lore.

Udonis Haslem rebounded the second missed FT and passed the ball to Teddy ‘Ballgames’ Dupay, who dribbled up the court before finding Mike Miller on the left wing with about three ticks left. Miller promptly drove to the hole and released a runner in the lane just before the buzzer. The shot got all net and allowed UF to ‘survive and advance’ en route to the school’s first-ever trip to the national-title game, where it lost to Michigan St.

Then in 2007 as the Gators were looking to repeat as national champs, they faced Butler in a Sweet 16 showdown. It would be the toughest test UF would face in the event. The game was tied at the two-minute mark, but Donovan’s squad would score the last eight points to pull away for a 65-57 victory. Nevertheless, Butler took the cash as a 9 ½-point underdog.

Back to this year, as the ‘over’ is on a 10-1 run in Florida’s last 11 games to improve to 20-11 overall for the season. Meanwhile, Butler has watched the ‘over’ hit at an 18-14-1 overall clip.

Tip-off is scheduled for 4:30 p.m. Eastern on CBS.

B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets

Did you know that Butler’s Shelvin Mack was one of the best prep players in the state of Kentucky coming out of high school but wasn’t recruited by Kentucky or Louisville?

Butler sophomore center Andrew Smith has played extremely well in this tournament, so he provided a huge scare when he turned his ankle and was on the floor writhing in pain for several minutes during the second half of Thursday’s win over Wisconsin. But Smith was able to return to the game and he’ll be good to go against UF.

Wisconsin point guard Jordan Taylor had a helluva season and was one of the country’s most consistent PGs all year long. However, his season ended with a pair of atrocious shooting performances. Taylor was 2-of-16 from the field in last Saturday night’s come-from-behind win over Kansas St., and he was just 6-of-19 in Thursday’s loss to Butler.

BYU still hasn’t reached the Elite Eight since Danny Aingle led the Cougars to a region-finals appearance in 1981.

Although BYU had the farthest distance to travel to New Orleans, its fans showed up in force. In fact, the New Orleans Arena appeared to have twice as many BYU fans as supporters from UF, Wisconsin and Butler.

vegasinsider.com.

West Region Final
By Judd Hall

Upsets weren’t the order of the day for much of the first few rounds of West Region with just one of the Top 4 seeds not making it to the Honda Center in Anaheim, California this week. That has all changed as we prepare to see the second ticket punched for Reliant Stadium in Houston get punched for either fifth-seeded Arizona (30-7 straight up, 19-15-1 against the spread) or the No. 3 seed Huskies. It all kicks off at 7:05 p.m. EDT on CBS.

The Wildcats have made the trip to the Elite Eight in Sean Miller’s second year after routing top-seeded Duke for a 93-77 win as 9 ½-point underdogs. Arizona cashed in at 4/1 on money line plays, while the combined 170 points soared well ‘over’ the closing total of 148.

Derrick Williams showed once again what all the hype was about by scoring a career-high 32 points and 13 rebounds. However, 25 of Williams’ 32 points came in the first half against the Blue Devils on Thursday night. Duke was completely outclassed for one stretch of the second half where they were outscored 19-2 in a span of just over four minutes. Lamont Jones also helped out with 16 points and six assists in the win. But what ‘Zona truly shined at was eliminating second chance scoring for the Blue Devils, allowing them to pull down just nine rebounds, while they grabbed 22 boards off of the defensive glass.

Arizona has been helping bettors for the last couple of weeks, going 4-1 SU and ATS in its last five games. The ‘under’ is 3-2 in that time as well. The Wildcats are aiming at making their first Final Four appearance since 2001, where they lost to the Blue Devils in the national championship game.

Standing in the Wildcats’ way for a trip to Houston is Connecticut (29-9 SU, 21-11 ATS), who has been on one of the most remarkable postseason journeys that I’ve ever seen. The Huskies are trying to give Jim Calhoun his fourth trip to the national semifinals and first since 2009, when they lost to Michigan State at Detroit’s Ford Field.

The Huskies ripped apart Bucknell in the second round of the big dance and made short work of Cincinnati to make the Sweet Sixteen. UConn sent the 2nd-seeded Aztecs packing with a 74-67 win on Thursday evening as a two-point pup in the O.C.

You’d probably think that I have a man crush on Kemba Walker when it comes to covering Connecticut, but he’s been just the most dominant player on the side. The junior guard led all players with 36 points, three boards and three assists. Meanwhile, Jeremy Lamb continues to show that his future is a bright one with 24 points and a pair of rebounds against San Diego State.

What’s surprising about the win over SDSU is that the Huskies lost the rebounding battle 32-30 in the game. This is a unit that ranked 32nd nationally with an average edge of 4.7 rebounds per game. Perhaps what is more of a concern for Calhoun and Company is that they only had five offensive boards as a team against Steve Fisher’s Aztecs. That simply cannot happen if they wish to cut down the nets at the Honda Center on Saturday night.

Despite an obvious concern for the war on the boards, the oddsmakers have not deterred from the seeding. Connecticut has been opened up on Friday morning as a 2 ½-point “chalk” with a total of 145. The Wildcats can be had for the outright win and a plus-120 (risk $100 to win $120) return on a gambler’s investment.

These two teams have met four times since 1999, and it’s not been a one-sided series. Connecticut is 4-0 SU and ATS in those four meetings with the ‘over/under’ going 2-2. The Huskies won three of those games outright as underdogs. Two of the matches were decided by two points.

While the head-to-head history is siding with the Huskies, past West Region finals shade the other way. Underdogs have posted a 6-5 SU and 7-3-1 ATS mark in the last 11 West Region finals, with the ‘over’ going 7-4 in that stretch. That total play makes sense for this game as the ‘over’ has hit in the last two battles between ‘Zona and UConn.

Connecticut has been a single-digit favorite 14 times this season. In those instances, they are 9-5 SU and just 7-7 ATS. The ‘under’ holds a slight 7-6-1 edge in those contests.

Arizona has gone 4-6 SU and 6-4 ATS in its 10 games as an underdog during the 2010-11 campaign. The ‘under’ is 6-3 in the nine games that had a total attached in that situation.

Vegasinsider.com