NCAA Elite Eight Preview and Pick: VCU vs. Kansas
(11) VCU Rams vs. (1) Kansas Jayhawks (-11, 145.5)
THE STORY: Playing in a Southwest regional that included three double-digit seeds, anything less than domination would be unacceptable for No. 1 seed Kansas. Consider the first test passed with flying colors. No. 11 seed Virginia Commonwealth has had to prove itself every step of the way this month, starting with a first-round game just to get into the field of 64. But four wins later, the Rams are further than they have ever been before and are still hungry. Kansas and VCU will battle it out for the right to go to Houston and the Final Four when the schools meet on Sunday in the regional final.
TV: 2:20 p.m. ET, CBS. ODDS: Kansas -11. Books opened with the Jayhawks at -10.5 and that was bet up to -11. The total has fallen from 147.5 to 145.5 points.
ABOUT KANSAS (35-2, 18-16-1): The Jayhawks will be playing in their fourth Elite Eight in eight seasons under coach Bill Self and are on the verge of making another trip to the Final Four - their first since winning the 2008 National Championship. Kansas let Boston University and Illinois hang around through the first half before turning in convincing wins in the first two games. But the Jayhawks did not mess around in the Sweet 16 against No. 12 seed Richmond. They ripped off a 27-4 burst in the first half that stretched the lead to as much as 35-11. The Jayhawks never led by less than 15 points the rest of the way in cruising through to the Southwest final. Brady Morningstar led with 18 points and Thomas Robinson collected 12 points and 14 rebounds off the bench in the 77-57 triumph. The game was over so fast that Marcus and Markieff Morris, who combined for 72 points and 41 rebounds in the first two games, only had to play 28 and 17 minutes, respectively. The Morris twins finished combined for 18 points and 13 boards.
ABOUT VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH (27-11, 17-20-0 ATS): The Rams took a lot of flack from analysts as a mid-major that got an at-large bid ahead of teams from large conferences like Colorado and Virginia Tech. No one is questioning them anymore, after taking out a fourth straight major-conference team en route to the Elite Eight. VCU had its toughest battle yet against No. 10 seed Florida State in the semifinal on Friday, but Branford Burgess hit a layup off an inbounds pass with 7.1 seconds left in overtime to lift it to a 72-71 victory. Burgess finished with 26 points and went 6 of 7 from 3-point range in the contest. The Rams had never made it past the second round in nine previous NCAA tournament appearances.
UP NEXT: The winner gets either Butler or Florida at the Final Four next Saturday in Houston.
TRENDS:
- Rams are 8-0 ATS in their last eight NCAA tournament games.
- Jayhawks are 4-1 ATS in their last five NCAA tournament games as favorites of 7.0-12.5.
- Under is 13-3 in Jayhawks' last 16 NCAA tournament games.
- Over is 7-3 in Rams' last 10 neutral-site games.
PREDICTION: Kansas 72, VCU 60 - The Jayhawks have their path to the Final Four nicely laid out in front of them and won’t be turning back now. The Rams will keep it honest but in the end Kansas has too many weapons.
NCAA Elite Eight Preview and Pick: Kentucky vs. North Carolina
(4) Kentucky Wildcats vs. (2) North Carolina Tar Heels (+1, 146)
THE STORY: Two talented young teams hitting their stride at the right time battle for a spot in the Final Four when Kentucky meets North Carolina in the East Regional final Sunday evening in Newark, N.J. The fourth-seeded Wildcats are coming off a 62-60 upset of No. 1 Ohio State on Friday, courtesy of a late jumper by freshman guard Brandon Knight, while the second-seeded Tar Heels used a first-half blitz to bury No. 11 Marquette, 81-63. Kentucky will be seeking its first Final Four appearance since winning the 1998 NCAA crown, while North Carolina is looking to make its third trip in the last four seasons.
TV: CBS, 6 p.m. ET. ODDS: Kentucky -1.5. This game opened at a pick, but early action on UK moved the line significantly.
ABOUT KENTUCKY (27-8, 15-15-1 ATS): The Wildcats have now won nine games in a row, with no bigger victory than their surprising triumph over the Buckeyes. Knight struggled mightily for much of the night Friday, but he rose to the occasion in the closing seconds with his second game-winning basket of the tournament. Kentucky was able to slow Ohio State's vaunted outside game, holding the Buckeyes to a season-worst 32.8 percent shooting from the field and blocking 11 shots. The Wildcats' top three scorers are all freshmen — Knight (17.2 ppg), forward Terrence Jones (15.9) and guard Doron Lamb (12.4), though that trio combined for just 23 points on Friday while senior center Josh Harrellson carried the load with 17 points and 10 rebounds. Lamb shoots 47 percent from 3-point range, leading the way for a club that ranks among the nation's best from long range at 39.5 percent.
ABOUT NORTH CAROLINA (28-7, 16-16-1 ATS): The young Tar Heels have won 17 of 19 games since freshman Kendall Marshall took over as the starting point guard, with both losses coming against ACC rival Duke. North Carolina has scored 269 points (89.7 ppg) in three tournament games, riding a dominating effort from its frontcourt. Junior forward Tyler Zeller scored 27 points and grabbed 15 rebounds against Marquette on Friday, while freshman forward Harrison Barnes added 20 points and sophomore forward John Henson totaled 14 points, 12 rebounds and five blocked shots. Marshall registered 14 assists in the team's third-round win over Washington, a school tournament record. The Tar Heels rank among the nation's leaders in rebounding margin (plus-6.5) and 14th in blocked shots (5.6).
UP NEXT: Winner plays against Arizona-Connecticut winner in national semifinals Saturday in Houston.
TRENDS:
- Wildcats are 5-2 ATS in their last seven NCAA Tournament games.
- Tar Heels are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 NCAA Tournament games.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Wildcats' last five NCAA Tournament games.
- Under is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings.
- Wildcats are 0-7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.
PREDICTION: North Carolina 82, Kentucky 73 -- While Knight has had some big moments, he has been far more erratic at the point than Marshall. That consistency, along with a slight edge in the paint, should be enough to carry the Tar Heels.