Southeast Region Semifinals
By Brian Edwards
The Southeast Region semifinals will take place Thursday night in New Orleans at the New Orleans Arena. The action will start at 7:25 p.m. Eastern when second-seeded Florida (28-7 straight up, 16-14-1 against the spread) squares off against third-seeded BYU.
Billy Donovan’s team survived a game effort from UCLA in their second-round showdown Saturday, winning 73-65 as a five-point favorite in Tampa. UF junior point guard Erving Walker made all the plays down the stretch, scoring 10 of the Gators’ last 12 points while his backcourt mate Kenny Boynton was on the sidelines nursing a sprained ankle.
Walker finished with 21 points, making 3-of-5 from 3-point range and 8-of-10 at the charity stripe. Alex Tyus was a monster on the boards, pulling down 13 rebounds and scoring eight points. Boynton and Vernon Macklin chipped in with 12 and 10 points, respectively.
In the first round, Florida destroyed UC-Santa Barbara by a 79-51 count as a 12½-point ‘chalk.’ Walker, who committed just two total turnovers in Tampa, was the catalyst with 18 points and six assists. Senior forward Chandler Parsons nearly had a triple-double with 10 points, 10 assists and seven rebounds.
BYU (32-4 SU, 15-17 ATS) was equally impressive in advancing to the Sweet 16, ending Gonzaga’s 10-game winning streak by thumping the ‘Zags 87-69 as a one-point favorite. Jimmer Fredette, the nation’s leading scorer coming into the tournament with a 28.5 points-per-game average, scored 34 points and dished out six assists. Jackson Emery added 16 points and four assists without committing a turnover, while Noah Hartsock finished with 13 points on 5-of-5 shooting from the field.
The Cougars failed to cover the number in a 74-66 first-round win over Wofford as 8½-point favorites. Fredette led the way with 32 points and seven assists. Charles Abouo, Hartsock and Logan Magnusson added 10 points apiece.
Florida will be looking to avenge a double-overtime loss to BYU in the first round of last year’s tournament. Fredette scored a game-high 37 points to lead the Cougars to a 99-92 triumph as five-point favorites. Fredette made 13-of-26 from the field and 8-of-10 at the free-throw line.
Boynton scored a team-high 26 points before fouling out in the first extra session. Parsons finished with 20 points, 10 rebounds and six assists, but he missed a good look from about 12 feet out for the potential game-winner at the end of regulation.
This time around, UF has been installed as the favorite. As of Tuesday evening, most betting shops had the Gators favored by three with a total of 149. BYU is plus-130 on the money line (risk $100 to win $130).
If the game is tight at crunch time, look for Boynton to be the primary defender on Fredette. However, due to foul-trouble concerns, Boynton won’t always be on Fredette by any means. Donovan can throw different bodies at the All-American guard, including Parsons and a pair of long and athletic freshmen in Casey Prather and Will Yeguete.
Defending Fredette is obviously a crucial aspect of the game for the Gators, but Donovan has plenty of other concerns.
“I don't think that you really get to this point in the season like they've gotten to with it just being one guy,” Donovan told the Gainesville Sun. “Certainly Fredette is a huge, huge part of it, but they also have other good players. So there's a lot for us to get prepared and ready for.”
Emery, a senior guard who took a two-year Mormon mission following his freshman campaign, is one of those quality players. He’s the school’s all-time leader in steals. Emery has averaged 12.6 points, 3.6 rebounds and 2.7 assists per game this year.
BYU will be without its best post player in Brandon Davies, who was suspended for the rest of the season for violating the school’s honor code. Since his dismissal from the team, the Cougars have won five of seven games but are just 3-4 versus the number.
Boynton sat out Monday’s practice to rest his sore ankle, but he’s expected to be at 100 percent by Thursday night. "We fully expect him to play," Donovan told the Sun. "He definitely has some discomfort, but it's not discomfort that's going to prevent him from playing. I'll find out more (this week) as he starts moving and really playing. The biggest thing now is what kind of pain is he going to have. He's walking. He's not on crutches. He doesn't have a lot of discomfort.
By picking up two more wins and spread covers at the St. Pete Times Forum, Florida has now won 12 of its last 14 games. The Gators are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine and they haven’t lost to a team not named Kentucky since a Jan. 29 loss at Mississippi State.
UF is 7-7 ATS in 14 single-digit favorite spots. However, we should note that the Gators are 6-2 ATS in their last eight such situations.
BYU has been an underdog three times this year, posting a 2-1 record both SU and ATS. The Cougars lost to San Diego St. in the MWC Tournament finals, but they won outright as ‘dogs at UNLV and at San Diego St.
The ‘over’ is 19-11 overall for the Gators, 9-1 in their last 10 games. BYU has watched the ‘over’ go 17-14-1 overall. In last year’s game, the score at the end of regulation was 75-75. If the game had not been tied, the 150 combined points still would’ve resulted in an ‘over’ since the total closed at 147½.
TBS will have the telecast at 7:25 p.m. Eastern.
In the nightcap game, Wisconsin (25-8 SU, 17-12 ATS) will take on Butler. The Badgers have been prone to run into underdog teams in recent years. They lost to Cornell in the second round last season and got drilled by Stephen Curry’s Davidson team in the Sweet 16 round of the 2008 tourney.
Most spots have tabbed Bo Ryan’s team as a 4½-point favorite with a total of 124. Gamblers can back the Bulldogs to win outright for a plus-180 return (risk $100 to win $180).
Wisconsin survived a nail-biter in the second round, beating Kansas St. 70-65 as a 3½-point favorite. The Badgers covered the spread thanks to Jordan Taylor’s block of a potential game-tying 3-pointer from Jacob Pullen. After the blocked shot, Josh Gasser came up with the ball and was fouled with 1.1 seconds remaining.
Gasser promptly went to the free-throw line and knocked down both attempts to send Wisconsin backers to the ticket window with a smile. Taylor had an awful shooting night, making just 2-of-16 attempts from the field. But he had an outstanding 6/0 assists-to-turnover ration and his critical blocked shot was the play of the game.
Butler (25-9 SU, 17-13-2 ATS) played a pair of game that went the buzzer last weekend. Senior power forward Matt Howard was the hero in both games. His buzzer-beating lay-up gave the Bulldogs a 60-58 victory as one-point underdogs.
Then in a second-round matchup against top-seeded Pittsburgh, Howard pulled down a rebound and was senselessly fouled with just a fraction of a second left. With the poise of the clutch veteran that he is, Howard drained the game-winning free throw and then missed the second one on purpose, giving Butler a 71-70 win as an eight-point underdog.
Howard’s free throw capped the wildest finish to an NCAA Tournament game that I’ve ever witnessed. With Pitt leading by one in the waning moments, Ronald Nored found Andrew Smith for a go-ahead lay-up with 2.4 ticks remaining.
Following Smith’s basket, Butler’s Shelvin Mack temporarily lost his sanity. As Pitt threw the ball inbounds, Mack inexplicably fouled Gilbert Brown to set him up with a double-bonus opportunity with 1.4 left. Brown swished the first attempt, only to see his second rim out.
At that point, Nasir Robinson saw Mack’s stupid foul and raised it by smacking Howard’s arm as he pulled down the rebound 90 feet from the basket. The rest is history.
Before Mack committed his jaw-dropping foul on Brown, he was nothing short of sensational. Mack scored a game-high 30 points, burying 10-of-16 shots and 7-of-12 from 3-point range.
Butler is an underdog in this contest for the ninth time this year. The Bulldogs have thrived in this role, going 6-1-1 ATS with the lone non-cover coming at Louisville way back on Nov. 16.
Wisconsin has posted an 11-5 spread record in 16 single-digit ‘chalk’ spots.
The ‘over’ is 18-13-1 overall for Butler, but the ‘under’ is 6-2 in its last eight games. Meanwhile, Wisconsin has seen the ‘over’ go 17-11-1 overall, 8-2 in its last 10 games.
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West Region Semifinals
By Judd Hall
Last week showed us the madness reined supreme over college basketball as we spent four straight days up until midnight on the Eastern seaboard. Now we get down to the nitty gritty of who will make the trip to Reliant Stadium in Houston next week.
The West Region semifinals will kick off the action on Thursday night from the Honda Center in Anaheim, California. It all starts off at 7:15 p.m. EDT on CBS with the third-seeded Huskies taking on No. 2 seed San Diego State (34-2 straight up, 22-12 against the spread).
Most betting shops opened this game up with the Aztecs as one-point favorites with a total of 128½. Fast forward to Tuesday afternoon, and we find Connecticut (28-9 SU, 20-11 ATS) is a one-point “chalk” with the total getting bounced up to 130. The Aztecs are getting even money to get the outright victory.
It might sound strange for Jim Calhoun’s club to get this kind of by the gambling public since the Big East took a nose dive in the tournament (11 teams in, 2 remain). But the Huskies are arguably the hottest team from that league.
UConn comes into the Sweet Sixteen after rolling over 14th-seeded Bucknell and 6th-seeded Cincinnati last week at the Verizon Center in Washington, D.C. And that doesn’t take into account that the Huskies had to win five games in as many days to win the Big East tournament. Plus, Connecticut is riding a seven-game ATS win streak into this game.
Kemba Walker has been the catalyst for this drive for the Huskies, scoring 33 points against Cincy in the third round and 18 points versus the Bison in the previous game. Freshman Jeremy Lamb has also been extremely effective in the NCAA tournament so far, averaging 15.0 points per game. There could be some concern for Walker in this game after hurting his wrist against the Bearcats, but he’s listed as “probable” and fully expected to start.
The Aztecs are coming into this game in virgin territory for their program. They had not won an NCAA tourney game before this year, which is undoubtedly the best they’ve had in school history.
San Diego State has reached the regional semifinals thanks to a dominating second round win over 15th-seed Northern Colorado and survived a double-overtime thriller against 7th-seed Temple last Saturday. Steve Fisher’s team is riding a 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS streak heading into this game in the O.C.
Kawhi Leonard (15.6 PPG, 10.6 RPG) and Malcolm Thomas (11.4 PPG, 8.1 RPG) have been the two players for SDSU to make them really move, but now they’re getting some help. Billy White has played with a great sense of urgency in the Aztecs’ last three games, scoring 16.3 PPG and grabbing 12.7 rebounds per game.
San Diego State has only been an underdog three times this season. In those situations, the Aztecs are 2-1 SU and ATS with the ‘under’ going 2-1. That total play would make sense as the ‘under’ is on a 5-2 run to close out the season.
The Huskies have not been that great as single-digit favorites this season, going 9-6 SU and 6-9 ATS. The ‘under’ has gone 9-5-1 in those contests.
Our nightcap starts up at 9:45 p.m. EDT on CBS, when the Blue Devils and Wildcats tip off. The oddsmakers have listed Duke as an 8½-point favorite with a total of 144 ½. The Wildcats can be had to make the Elite Eight for a plus-400 (risk $100 to win $400) return.
Arizona (29-7 SU, 18-15-1 ATS) wasn’t expected to do too much in the NCAA tournament outside of a couple of handicappers. Yet the Wildcats stand two wins away from the Final Four. They got to this point by holding off Memphis in the second round and Texas in the third round in two of the more intense games we’ve seen during the even thus far.
The Wildcats would simply not be in this game if it weren’t for Derrick Williams’ heroics. Arizona’s Williams had 17 points and nine rebounds in the 70-69 win over the Longhorns as a 5½-point underdog. The sophomore and Pac-10 Player of the Year completed a three-point play with 9.6 left in the second half to take the lead. And Williams made a game-saving block with just two seconds left against Memphis for a 77-75 win last Friday.
We shouldn’t be all that surprised by the good fortunes of Arizona right now as they closed the year with a 14-3 SU and 9-7-1 ATS mark. However, they went 0-7 ATS from Feb. 19 to March 10. Since then, the ‘Cats are 3-1 SU and ATS. The ‘under’ is on a 3-1 run as well.
Duke (32-4 SU, 20-15 ATS) is certainly groomed for a second straight national championship after being graced with the top seed in the West Region. The Blue Devils destroyed 16th-seeded Hampton in the second round and then held off 8th-seeded Michigan in the third round in Charlotte.
Looking at the Blue Devils’ body of work in the NCAA tournament can say that they are folding freshman Kyrie Irving into the game quite well. Irving posted 14 points and four boards against the Pirates last Friday, then 11 more points two days later versus the Wolverines. Nolan Smith is still running show for Duke, averaging 16.5 PPG in the tourney.
These two teams haven’t met one another in a long time, but the history is tilted towards Duke. The Blue Devils are 2-0 SU and ATS in the two meetings they’ve had since 1997. The most recent decision coming in the 2001 national final, where Duke rolled to a 82-71 win as a four-point pup.
Being an underdog isn’t exactly foreign for the Wildcats, having happened nine times during the campaign. Arizona is 3-6 SU and 5-4 ATS in those contests as a pup, which isn’t that inspiring. However, Sean Miller’s kids have gone 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS in their last three games listed as ‘dogs. The ‘under’ is 6-2 during those test for gamblers that love playing totals.
Duke has gone 6-3 SU in the nine games this year that the sportsbooks listed them as a single-digit “chalk.” Gamblers have enjoyed taking the Blue Devils in this role as well as they’ve gone 6-3 ATS. The ‘under’ is 5-4 in those matches.
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Florida Gators the NCAA betting favorite in SE Regional
By: Brad Young
The NCAA Tournament has proven once again that it is the best sporting event on the planet. Now that the chaos of the first weekend is out of the way, the Sweet 16 remains with a few notable surprises. The Southwest Region for example features top-seeded Kansas along with three double-digit seeded teams.
The Southeast Region has largely gone to form with one notable exception. Top-seeded Pittsburgh was upset by Butler in the Round of 32, giving the eighth-seeded Bulldogs a shot at back-to-back Final Four appearances. Seeds two, three and four successfully avoided the pitfalls of the first couple of rounds to set the stage for this weekend.
Butler will have to don its road uniforms for Thursday’s Sweet 16 matchup with fourth-seed Wisconsin. Don Best's Real-Time Odds installed Wisconsin as a 4½-point ‘chalk’ over the Bulldogs, with the total set at 124.
The remaining teams in this bracket are viewed as long shots to win the national championship according to updated future odds. Second-seed Florida is given the best shot in the Southeast Region, currently listed at 12/1 to win its third national championship in school history.
Wisconsin is next on the list at 20/1, while third-seed Brigham Young resides at 22/1. Butler is a 25/1 selection, just one year removed from advancing to last year’s championship game.
Butler (25-9 straight up, 17-13-2 against the spread) won its opening game in the Big Dance by holding off Old Dominion last Thursday on a buzzer beater as a one-point underdog, 60-58. The combined 118 points went ‘under’ the 123½-point closing total.
The Bulldogs then upset top-seed Pittsburgh Saturday as an eight-point underdog, 71-70, while the combined 141 points went ‘over’ the 125-point closing total. Butler is 7-3 ATS in the NCAA Tournament under head coach Brad Stevens.
Wisconsin (25-8 SU, 17-12 ATS) dumped Belmont last Thursday in its tournament opener as a four-point ‘chalk,’ 72-58. The Badgers then held off a tough Kansas State squad as a 3½-point favorite, 70-65. The combined 135 points eclipsed the 124-point closing total, helping the 'over’ improve to 8-2 the past 10 games.
Wisconsin and Butler haven’t faced each other since 2001 when the Bulldogs prevailed as an eight-point road underdog, 58-44. Butler is 6-1-1 ATS its last eight outings versus Big Ten opponents.
Meanwhile BYU and Florida do have a recent tournament history, as the Cougars eliminated the Gators last year in overtime during the opening round as a five-point ‘chalk,’ 99-92. The combined 191 points soared ‘over’ the 147 ½-point closing total. BYU’s Jimmer Fredette posted 37 points in that contest.
Florida (28-7 SU, 16-14-1 ATS) cruised past UC Santa Barbara last Thursday as a 12½-point favorite, 79-71, before beating UCLA Saturday as a 5 ½-point ‘chalk,’ 73-65. The Gators have now seen the ‘over’ go 9-1 their past 10 performances. Florida coach Billy Donovan is 11-2 SU and 10-3 ATS in the NCAA Tournament during the Sweet 16, Elite 8 and Final Four rounds.
BYU (32-4 SU, 15-17 ATS) advanced to this stage by beating Wofford last Thursday as an 8 ½-point favorite, 74-66, before upending Gonzaga Saturday as a one-point ‘chalk,’ 89-67. The Cougars have seen the ‘over’ go 6-2 their last eight NCAA Tournament games.
The Southeast Regional’s Sweet 16 tips off Thursday from Louisiana Superdome in New Orleans. The first game pits Florida against BYU beginning at 4:15 p.m. PT. The Don Best odds screen shows the Gators as a three-point favorite over the Cougars, with the total listed at 149. This marks the highest total of any of the Sweet 16 matchups.
Duke leads NCAA odds field in West Region
By: Stephen Nover
Like the other brackets, the NCAA Tournament West Regional has similar storylines heading into the Sweet 16.
There’s a strong No. 1 seed in defending champion Duke. There’s a Cinderella team, Arizona. There’s a team from the bloodied but still alive Big East Conference in Connecticut and there’s a newcomer in San Diego State.
Oddsmakers see Duke as the heavy favorite to win the West Regional. The Blue Devils are 8½-point favorites to beat Arizona Thursday in Anaheim, Calif., 6:45 p.m. PT on CBS. The ‘over/under’ is 144½.
The Blue Devils are in the round of 16 for the 12th time in 14 years. Mike Krzyzewski’s team has won its last eight NCAA Tournament games. The Blue Devils have covered eight of their last 12 matchups this season.
Duke is minus 320 to capture the West Regional, according to odds at Bookmaker.com. Connecticut is next at plus 430 followed by San Diego State at 5/1 and Arizona at 10/1.
Duke also has the shortest odds of winning the tournament at plus 255. Ohio State and Kansas are each next at plus 265. No other team is lower than 11/1.
Connecticut and San Diego State both are 20/1. Arizona is 25/1.
The Blue Devils had covered four in a row, including destroying Hampton, 87-45, as 25-point favorites in the first-round of the tournament. Teams rarely win the tournament unless surviving at least one scare and the Blue Devils had theirs this past Sunday nipping Michigan, 73-71, as 12½-point favorites.
The combined 144 points went ‘over’ the 136-point total. It was just the fourth time in their last 15 games the Blue Devils had gone ‘over’ the total.
Sparked by Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler, the Blue Devils are trying to become just the third school to repeat as national champions since 1974. Florida was the last to accomplish the feat winning in 2006 and ’07. Duke achieved it in 1991 and ’92 under Krzyzewski.
Arizona is a young team that has covered just three of its last 10 games. The Wildcats, though, have perhaps the best big man in the tournament, 6-foot-8 forward Derrick Williams.
The Wildcats upset Texas this past Sunday, 70-69, as 5½-point underdogs. The combined 139 points dipped ‘under’ the 141½-point total.
Arizona held the Longhorns to 45.3 percent shooting from the floor after allowing its previous nine opponents to make nearly 50 percent from the field. Arizona opened its NCAA Tournament by edging Memphis, 77-75, failing to cover as 5½-point favorites. The combined 152 points went ‘over’ the 141½-point total.
Like Duke, Arizona has a strong NCAA Tournament tradition having qualified 25 consecutive years until missing last season. The Wildcats have covered in nine of their last 13 non-conference matchups. Duke is 15-7 ATS in its past 22 non-league contests.
The Big East has only two of its 11 teams in the tournament remaining. Connecticut is one of them along with Marquette.
The Huskies are ‘pick’ versus San Diego State with the ‘over/under’ at 130. Game time is Thursday at 4:15 p.m. PT with CBS broadcasting.
The Huskies are riding a lot of momentum having beaten DePaul, Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Syracuse and Louisville during a span of five days to capture the Big East Conference Tournament.
Connecticut followed that up by waltzing over Bucknell, 81-52, in the first round of the NCAA Tournament covering as 10-point favorites and then defeating fellow Big East school Cincinnati, 69-58, this past Saturday as 3½-point favorites. The Huskies have covered in their last seven games.
Guard Kemba Walker has been nearly a one-man wrecking crew for the Huskies scoring 18 points against Bucknell and hitting for 33 versus Cincinnati. He’s 20-for-20 from the foul line in the NCAA Tournament.
San Diego State, in the Sweet 16 for the first time, rolled past Northern Colorado, 68-50, covering as 14½-point favorites in the first-round. The Aztecs then pulled off the luckiest cover of the tournament by downing Temple, 71-64, in double overtime this past Saturday as six-point favorites.
Thursday's Sweet 16 Preview and Picks
(3) Connecticut Huskies vs. (2) San Diego State Aztecs
THE STORY: No. 2 seed San Diego State’s two losses this season came against Brigham Young and Jimmer Fredette, who lit up the Aztecs for 68 points on 47 percent shooting in those games. Now San Diego State, which had never won an NCAA tournament game until this month, must deal with No. 3 seed Connecticut’s star Kemba Walker in the West Regional semifinals on Thursday in Anaheim, Calif. Walker, a 6-foot-1 junior, is almost as prolific as Fredette. He is averaging 23.5 points, coming off a 33-point outburst against Cincinnati and also setting up teammates (17 assists in two tournament games). Walker has lifted UConn to its 16th appearance in the Sweet 16. The Aztecs counter with one of the nation’s top frontcourts in Kawhi Leonard (15.6 points, 10.6 rebounds), Malcolm Thomas (11.4, 8.1) and Billy White (10.1 points). And their coach, Steve Fisher, has been here before - he guided Michigan to the national title 22 years ago.
TV: 7:15 p.m. ET, CBS. ODDS: San Diego State -1
PREDICTION: San Diego State 70, UConn 68. With the game in Anaheim, the Aztecs should have a big homecourt advantage. The crowd and San Diego State’s balance - five players average nine or more points - will be just enough to overcome another 30-point night from Walker, and get the Aztecs into the Elite Eight.
(3) BYU Cougars vs. (2) Florida Gators
THE STORY: Florida got a close look at Jimmer Fredette’s magic in last year’s NCAA tournament and hopes to have a different result when the Gators face Brigham Young in the Southeast Regional semifinals in New Orleans on Thursday. Fredette scored 37 points as BYU notched a 99-92 double-overtime first-round victory over Florida last season in what represented a disappointing early exit for the Gators. Third-seeded BYU is playing in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 1981 mainly because of Fredette, the high-scoring guard who is up for Naismith National Player of the Year honors. Second-seeded Florida is making its seventh Sweet 16 appearance, but its first since winning the 2007 national championship.
TV: 7:27 p.m. ET, TBS. ODDS: Florida -2.5
PREDICTION: Florida 86, BYU 77. The Gators have the inside game to take advantage of Davies’ absence and slow down Fredette just enough to avenge last year’s loss.
(5) Arizona Wildcats vs. (1) Duke Blue Devils
THE STORY: Defending champion Duke, in the Sweet 16 for the 12th time in 14 years, meets Arizona in the West Regional semifinals on Thursday in a rematch of their national title game from a decade ago. The Blue Devils won that one 82-72, and they’re favored again to oust a Wildcats squad that pulled out two nailbiters to get here. Duke blew out Hampton in its opener before surviving by two against Michigan. Each team features its conference's player of the year - Duke senior guard Nolan Smith (20.9 points, 5.3 assists) and Arizona sophomore forward Derrick Williams (19.2 points, 8.2 rebounds). The Blue Devils have a big edge in tournament experience, but the Wildcats should have more fan support playing in Anaheim, Calif. Williams, who hails from nearby La Mirada, Calif., said he can’t wait to get home and play in front of a huge contingent of family and friends.
TV: 9:45 p.m. ET, CBS. ODDS: Duke -8
PREDICTION: Duke 77, Arizona 72. Miller is building a powerhouse in the desert, but the Wildcats aren’t quite ready to take down an established one such as Duke. Arizona struggled to defend penetration against the Longhorns, so look for Smith to take over and lead the Blue Devils to the Elite Eight.
(8) Butler Bulldogs vs. (4) Wisconsin Badgers
THE STORY: The Butler magic is on the loose again and the eighth-seeded Bulldogs seek a return to the Elite Eight when they face fourth-seeded Wisconsin in the Southeast Regional in New Orleans on Thursday. The Bulldogs wreaked havoc on the bracket a year ago by crashing the championship game and have notched dramatic last-second victories over Old Dominion and Pittsburgh in their first two games this season. Wisconsin also survived its second game against Kansas State with spectacular play late in the contest. The Badgers are back in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2008 and making their fourth Sweet 16 appearance under coach Bo Ryan. The Badgers aren’t flashy but they rarely make mistakes. Butler has won 11 consecutive games and is 7-1 in its last eight NCAA tournament games with the lone loss being to Duke in last season’s NCAA title game.
TV: 9:57 p.m. ET, TBS. ODDS: Wisconsin -4
PREDICTION: Butler 53, Wisconsin 51. A tight game goes down to the wire with Butler squeaking out a last-second win for the third straight time despite typical Wisconsin defensive precision and effort.
Arizona Wildcats meet Duke Blue Devils
By: Willie Bee
It's all about survival this time of year on the college hardwood. Win and move on, lose and go home, pretty simple stuff.
Arizona's Sean Miller and Duke's Mike Krzyzewski know how true that is as the two coaches bring their respective teams into a Sweet 16 matchup having just survived previous encounters. The defending champion Blue Devils handed Coach K his 900th career dubya in a nervous 73-71 triumph over Michigan while the Wildcats needed a late three-point play and a little help from officials to get past Texas, 70-69.
'Zona has actually survived twice to get to this point, and sophomore Derrick Williams has been the savior both times. The team's leading scorer and rebounder, Williams blocked Memphis' final shot to give Arizona a 77-75 win in the double-Wildcats opener last Friday in Tulsa. Favored by six, Miller's 'Cats failed to cover to break a short two-game win streak at the window.
Williams' late block aside, it was a game Arizona won at the free throw line with the team going 24-of-31 in charity tosses while Memphis scored seven fewer points on seven fewer attempts.
Sunday's win over Texas also came at the free throw line with Williams hitting a late layup to tie the Longhorns 69-apiece before his subsequent foul shot went in to break the deadlock. But it was the quick 5-second call by the refs on the ensuing inbounds play by Texas with nine ticks left that will always be remembered. J'Covan Brown gave the 'Horns one more chance but his late layup attempt didn't go in.
Williams paced the Wildcats, 5½-points underdogs to the Longhorns, in both games with 22 and 17 points. He's the only Arizona player to average double digits on the scoreboard. Solomon Hill (8.0 PPG) stepped up in the Texas game with 16 points, the same amount guard Jordin Mayes added in 19 minutes off the bench after starter Lamont Jones proved ineffective with an 0-for-6 afternoon from the field.
Duke's close shave getting past the Wolverines followed an easy 87-45 tune-up versus Hampton in the Blue Devils' tourney opener. Krzyzewski was able to get 12 players into the game, including freshman Kyrie Irving who was playing for the first time since the Butler game in early-December when he suffered a toe injury.
The frosh was all over the stat sheet in Friday's victory over the Pirates, leading the Devils with 14 points, hitting both of his three-pointers, grabbing four boards, stealing two balls and blocking another. Irving once again came off the bench in the Michigan game, scoring 11 points with most of them from the free-throw line where he made good on 9-of-10 attempts.
Irving managed to play 20 and 21 minutes in the two games. Krzyzewski has said he once again plans to bring the freshman off the bench, but that Irving's playing time would be increased for the matchup with Arizona.
The two schools have split six regular season meetings over the years, with Duke owning the victory the only time the teams faced off at the dance. That lone tourney encounter happened to be the 2001 NCAA Championship, the last time the Wildcats and Blue Devils met.
Duke's Mike Dunleavy Jr. rattled Arizona with a barrage of three-pointers during a Blue Devils run in the early part of the second half to lead the team to an 82-72 win for the title. Eighteen of Dunleavy's game-high 21 points came in the final 20 minutes, and the championship was Duke's last until taking home the 2010 crown.
The winner this time will move on to face either San Diego State or Connecticut. The Aztecs and Huskies tip-off at 4:15 p.m. (PT) on CBS with Duke and Arizona trailing on the same network.
State Diego State battles Connecticut Huskies
By: Michael Robinson
The second-seeded San Diego State Aztecs could have a sizable homecourt advantage when they face the third-seeded Connecticut Huskies in the Sweet 16 on Thursday.
Connecticut is slim one-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 130-points. CBS will have this West Region matchup at 4:15 p.m. (PT) from Anaheim, just about 90 miles from the San Diego State campus.
The West has held pretty much to form so far with only fourth-seed Texas suffering a close loss to fifth-seed Arizona (70-69).
Top-seed Duke (2/3) is the region favorite to make the Final Four, followed by Connecticut (13/4), San Diego State (7/2) and long-shot Arizona (9/1), Connecticut is 14/1 to win the whole thing, while San Diego State is 16/1.
The Aztecs (34-2 SU, 22-12 ATS) are one of two Mountain West Conference teams remaining along with BYU. Only the ACC has more squads left with Duke, North Carolina and Florida State.
BYU is the only team to beat San Diego State all year, 71-58 and 80-67 in the regular season before revenge was served in the conference tourney final. The Aztecs won 72-54 with BYU feeling the loss of suspended forward Brandon Davies.
Coach Steve Fisher has been the San Diego State coach since 1999, making four trips to March Madness. The team just advanced past the first round for the first time in history, but is looking for a lot more.
Fisher has a national title under his belt from the 1989 Michigan team and two more national title game appearances with the ‘Fab Five’ in 1992 and 1993 The latter squad was recently chronicled in a controversial ESPN documentary, but that’s ancient history to the current players, who were barely born back then.
San Diego State’s roster doesn’t have the talent of Fab-Fivers like Chris Webber, Juwan Howard and Jalen Rose, but isn’t that far behind. Sophomore small forward Kawhi Leonard (15.6 PPG, 10.6 RPG) is a potential NBA lottery pick who brings the intensity every night.
Leonard is joined up front by 6-foot-9 senior Malcolm Thomas (11.4 PPG, 8.1 RPG) and 6-foot-8 Billy White (10.1 PPG, 4.4 RPG). White can be inconsistent at times, but he’s averaging 14 points and 13 rebounds in this tournament. This frontcourt is very athletic overall and compares favorably even with most Big East teams.
San Diego beat Northern Colorado in the opening round 68-50 as 14 ½-point favorites. Leonard had 21 points and 10 boards. The next game was a 71-64 OT win over Temple, a fortunate ‘cover’ of the 5½-points. A 40-30 advantage on the boards helped the cause.
The Northern Colorado game went ‘under’ the 129½-point total and the Temple contest would have too (125-point total) if not for the overtime.
The Huskies (28-9 SU, 20-11 ATS) were one of the most talked about teams heading into March Madness after winning the Big East Tournament with an incredible five wins in five days. That was after entering as a ninth seed (9-9 SU and 7-11 ATS in the conference).
There was thought that Connecticut might have a letdown coming off that performance, but it hasn’t happened. An opening 81-52 blowout of Bucknell as 10-point ‘chalk’ was followed by a 69-58 win over Big East Cincinnati as 3½-point favorites.
Connecticut is now 7-0 ATS in its last seven games. The ‘under’ is 3-0 dating back to the 69-66 conference tourney final over Louisville.
Kemba Walker had 33 points last game against Cincinnati. He’s one of the nation’s leading scorers (23.6 PPG), but is also getting help lately from freshman Jeremy Lamb (14.4 PPG the last seven games).
The Aztecs have some experience facing dominant scorers. BYU’s Jimmer Fredette burned them for 43 points in the first meeting on 14-of-24 shooting (58.3 percent). He averaged 27.5 PPG in the final two, but shot a combined 18-of-48 (37.5 percent).
The Aztecs will be facing more length and athleticism up front than they’re used to. Connecticut big man Alex Oriakhi is a shot-blocker at 6-foot-9 and seven-foot Charles Okwandu is also an intimidator in his minutes on the floor.
Coach Jim Calhoun has more faith in his bench than Fisher and his team could be fresher in the final few minutes of a close game.
Neither team is reporting any significant injuries , although Walker is listed as probable after banging his hip last game.
The victor will face the winner of Duke (minus 8½) and Arizona in Saturday’s Elite Eight.
Wisconsin Badgers chalk to take down Butler Bulldogs
By: Brad Young
Butler (25-9 straight up, 17-13-2 against the spread) has crashed the Southeast Region party, and is trying to advance to its second Final Four in as many years.
The eighth-seeded Bulldogs reside in mid-major territory in the Horizon League, and stick out in a Southeast Region that has seeds two, three and four still playing. Butler won its first two games by a combined three points.
Wisconsin (25-8 SU, 17-12 ATS) remains one of two Big Ten schools still playing in the NCAA Tournament, winning its first two games by a combined 19 points. The fourth-seeded Badgers currently entertain 20/1 odds of winning the national championship, while the Bulldogs are 25/1.
Wisconsin opened as four-point ‘chalk’ over Butler, but the Don Best odds screen now shows the Badgers as a five-point favorite while the total has remained unchanged at 124.
TBS will provide coverage of Thursday’s Sweet 16 matchup from Louisiana Superdome in New Orleans, tentatively scheduled to start at 7:00 p.m. (PT), about a half hour after the BYU-Florida contest concludes.
Butler started its NCAA Tournament run by slipping past ninth-seed Old Dominion last Thursday as a one-point underdog, 60-58, while the combined 118 points went ‘under’ the 123½-point closing. Senior forward Matt Howard’s tip-in at the buzzer prevented the game from going into overtime.
The Bulldogs followed that effort with Saturday’s victory over Southeast Region top-seed Pittsburgh as an eight-point underdog, 71-70. The combined 141 points flew ‘over’ the 125-point closing total.
The end of the game was bizarre to say the least, with a pair of fouls occurring in the last few seconds. Butler took the lead with three seconds remaining when Andrew Smith scored in the paint. Then the Bulldogs’ Shelvin Mack inadvertently fouled Gilbert Brown on the inbounds. Pitt’s senior made his first free throw to tie the game before missing the second.
Howard grabbed the rebound, and was then inexplicably fouled with a few tenths of a second remaining in the game. Howard promptly made his first foul shot before missing the second one intentionally to provide the final score.
Butler entered halftime with an eight-point advantage, 38-30, but eventually blew a 12-point lead and had to rally from a five-point deficit over the last 10:37. The Bulldogs prevailed despite trailing the Panthers in rebounding, 31-21, and assists, 21-12. Butler shot 46 percent (24-of-52) from the field, but won the game by shooting 44 percent (12-of-27) from behind the arc.
Mack scored 30 points in the victory on 10-of-16 shooting, while Howard contributed 16 and six rebounds. They were the only two Bulldogs to reach double digits in scoring, while guard Shawn Vanzant provided seven and four assists.
Butler has now won 11 games in a row SU, and has not lost since a Feb. 3 road setback to Youngstown State that concluded a 1-4 stretch. The Bulldogs are now 7-3 ATS in the NCAA Tournament under head coach Brad Stevens.
Wisconsin cruised past Belmont in last Thursday’s opener as a 4½-point ‘chalk,’ 72-58, while the combined 130 points eclipsed the 128-point closing total. The Badgers then held off fifth-seed Kansas State Saturday as a 3½-point favorite, 70-65. The combined 135 points toppled the 124-point closing total, helping the ‘over’ improve to 8-2 the previous 10 outings.
Bo Ryan's squad held on after entering halftime with a six-point advantage, 36-30, finishing the game with more assists (12-7) while trailing in rebounding (30-27). The Badgers shot a solid 42 percent (21-of-50) from the field, and 45 percent (9-of-20) from 3-point land.
Forward Jon Leuer led a balanced attack with 19 points and seven rebounds, while guard Jordan Taylor added 12, four and six assists. Guard Josh Gasser had 11 and seven boards, while forward Mike Bruesewitz contributed 11 and six.
Butler and Wisconsin have not squared off since 2001 when the Bulldogs prevailed as an eight-point road underdog, 58-44. There was no total on that contest.
Butler is 6-1-1 ATS its past eight outings versus Big Ten opponents. The Bulldogs have seen the ‘under’ go 6-2 their last eight games overall.
Wisconsin is 10-4 ATS its previous 14 Thursday games, while the ‘under’ is 13-5 the last 18 Thursday affairs.
BYU Cougars and Florida tip SE Region
By: Willie Bee
Unless a bunch of LSU fans show up to express disgust with their SEC rivals from Florida, the Gators should have a very pronounced crowd behind them in the Big Easy when they take on the BYU Cougars.
Brigham Young (32-4 straight up, 15-17 against the spread) has just three losses since mid-December, two of those to New Mexico following wins over San Diego State both times. The Cougs topped the Aztecs twice in the regular season before falling to SDSU in the Mountain West Finals on March 12.
BYU narrowly missed the cover in its NCAA tourney opener last Thursday with a 74-66 win over Wofford as 8½-point chalk. The Cougars followed that up with an 89-67 rout of Gonzaga as one-point favorites.
All discussions about Brigham Young start and end with senior guard Jimmer Fredette, the nation's leading scorer (28.8 PPG). Despite scoring 32 points, he had a bit of an off game in the win over the Terriers hitting 10-of-25 from the field and only 2-of-9 from long range. He did make up for that a bit with 10-of-12 from the charity stripe and seven assists.
If he's off against Florida, he'll need more support from the rest of his team that shot just 14-of-36 from the field.
Fredette found his mark from three-point land in the victory over the Zags, sinking 7-of-12 from beyond the arc to add 34 more points to his ledger. BYU's support personnel also came to life, sinking 20-of-36 between them, 7-of-16 from three-point land.
Florida (28-7 SU, 16-14-1 ATS) has dropped just two games since the end of January, both defeats at the hands of Kentucky including a 70-54 defeat in the SEC Tournament Championship Game. The 12 wins wrapping around the two losses to the Wildcats saw the Gators cash nine time, with a 7-3 ATS record in the 10 they were favored.
The Gators shot well in both wins over the Gauchos and Bruins, hitting 50 percent or better from the field, netting 14-of-37 from long range and sinking 13-of-17 from the free throw line in each contest. All of those percentages were above season norms.
Kenny Boynton, who scored 13 and 12 points respectively in the pair of victories last week, has been limited in practice this week with an ankle injury. The sophomore guard, second on the team with a 14.0 scoring average, is expected to play and will draw Fredette on the defensive side of the ball most of the night.
The 'over' has also been profitable during the same post-February stretch for the Gators and continued in the two wins and covers against UC-Santa Barbara and UCLA last week in the Tampa pod. Florida is 11-2 to the high side of the total its last 13 games, 4-1 at neutral sites during the SEC and NCAA tourneys.
A double-overtime thriller broke out when these two schools last squared off in their 2010 NCAA Tournament openers. Seeded seventh, BYU scored a 99-92 win over the Gators with Fredette hitting a pair of threes in the second overtime as part of a 37-point afternoon at the Oklahoma City Arena.
The Cougars covered chalk that closed at five after opening a point lower. The two teams combined for 150 points in regulation to top the 147-point total in that game. Boynton and Chandler Parsons paced Florida with 27 and 20 in the boxscore.
Thursday's victor will hit the Superdome floor again Saturday to take on the winner of the Wisconsin, Butler battle that follows on TBS approximately 25 minutes after the Cougars and Gators wrap their game up.
College Basketball Knowledge
UConn, San Diego State both won last seven games; Huskies have been down this road before, winning West region three times in last 12 years, but huge edge in experience (Aztecs #61, UConn #332), plus being close to home (Anaheim) has to help San Diego State here. Walker has often been one-man gang for Huskies, something Fisher has seen before, with three games against Jimmer under his belt. Underdogs are 8-7 vs spread in last 15 regional semis with #2-3 seeds playing. I think Aztecs win.
BYU beat Florida 99-92 in double OT in first round of NCAAs LY, but key player for Cougars after Fredette (37 points) was backup PG Loyd (26 points off bench), who transferred after season. Gators turned ball over 21 times (-9) in that game. Boynton tweaked ankle in UCLA game, didn't practice Monday, but did Wednesday; they'll need him close to 100% to help contain prolific Jimmer. Florida ranks 30th in defending 3-pointers; key to BYU is how does supporting cast shoot? Fredette will get his; if other guys are making shots, BYU becomes much tougher.
Last seven times Duke played in regional semis, they are 2-5, including a 2-3 mark in this round last five times they were a #1-seed; in their last 11 regional semis, Duke is just 3-8 vs spread. Arizona's star Williams is 8th in country in getting to foul line; we'll see how long that lasts against Blue Devil squad that often gets friendly whistle. Duke won at Oregon 98-71 in only game vs Pac-10 squad (Singler's homecoming game). One sneaky thing in Arizona's favor: Wildcats are #3 in defending 3-pointers, and that is Duke's lifeline, but Blue Devils are also getting Irving into the flow after he's come back from lengthy injury absence.
Over last three years, favorites are 16-8 vs spread in this round, so edge to Wisconsin in what figures to be lower-scoring game (Butler is #280 in pace, Badgers #345 (last)). Wisconsin is 2-0 vs Horizon teams this year, beating Milwaukee 61-40, Green Bay 70-56. #8-9 seeds get to this point by upsetting a #1-seed, which is big, but over last 15 years, #8-9 seeds are just 2-5 vs spread in regional semis. Big 11 non-conference favorites of 6 or less points are 10-16 vs spread. Horizon dogs of 6 or less? 13-9.