Tourney Bubble Teams
By Bodog
Do the Fighting Irish have enough luck to escapes the NCAA Tournament bubble?
There’s no doubt that Notre Dame has had a lousy year. After settling for a trip to the NIT last year, the Irish appeared destined for a repeat visit at 17-10 overall and 6-8 in Big East play. Then the wins started coming. Down went Pittsburgh (-1). Down went Georgetown (-10.5). And on Wednesday night, down went UConn (+1.5). The Fighting Irish now sit at 20-10 SU and 13-10-1 ATS with only one game left to go in the regular season. A return to March Madness could very well be in the cards, win or lose.
Kudos to the Irish for making it even this far. They lost top player Luke Harangody (24.1 points, 10.0 rebounds per game) last month to a bruised knee, yet still managed to beat two of the best teams in the nation – plus the Huskies, who now find themselves very much on the Tournament bubble at 17-13 (12-16 ATS). Harangody could also miss Saturday’s game against the Marquette Golden Eagles (20-9 SU, 15-7-1 ATS), who can already start preparing for the Big Dance.
The pressure for Harangody to suit up will be enormous. Getting into the Tournament is so important, people like ESPN’s Joe Lunardi have made a career out of bracketology, the “art and science” of predicting which 65 teams the NCAA Selection Committee will invite. Handicappers are paying very close attention to Lunardi’s projections as well as the usual basketball betting lines, looking for any edge they can get come Tournament time. Office poolies are even more involved in this process.
Heading into Wednesday’s action, Lunardi (the Godfather of bracketology) had Notre Dame on the outside of the Tournament looking in, along with the Rhode Island Rams (21-7 SU, 11-13-1 ATS), the Dayton Flyers (19-9 SU, 11-13-1 ATS) and the Mississippi Rebels (19-9 SU, 14-9-1 ATS). The Rams were the other team out of that foursome to play Wednesday, and they did themselves a big favor by beating the Charlotte 49ers 80-58, covering as 8.5-point home favorites.
If Notre Dame and Rhode Island both get in, who’s going to miss out? Here were Lunardi’s “Last Four In” on Wednesday:
Virginia Tech Hokies (22-7 SU, 11-11-1 ATS)
St. Mary’s Gaels (24-5 SU, 17-10 ATS)
Mississippi State Bulldogs (21-9 SU, 13-11-1 ATS)
San Diego State Aztecs (20-8 SU, 14-11 ATS)
The Bulldogs look like they’re in big trouble after Wednesday’s 89-80 loss to the Auburn Tigers (+2 at home). After that, who knows? The Gaels have already completed their regular season in the West Coast Conference; if they want to improve their chances of getting into the Big Dance, they’ll have to do it the hard way by winning the WCC tournament. They’re the second favorites at 5-2, well behind the Gonzaga Bulldogs (25-5 SU, 14-10-2 ATS) at 2-5.
Bracketology isn’t just about which teams are on the bubble. Everyone’s talking about which four teams will earn those vaunted No. 1 seeds at the Tournament, and after Wednesday’s action, it’s not quite cut and dried. Provided nothing untoward happens, it looks like the top three teams in the college rankings will all be assigned top seeds: the Syracuse Orange (28-2 SU, 19-7 ATS), the Kansas Jayhawks (28-2 SU, 11-15-1 ATS) and the Kentucky Wildcats (28-2 SU, 16-12 ATS). But the No. 4 Duke Blue Devils (25-5 SU, 17-10-2 ATS) apparently blew their chances with a 79-72 road loss to the Maryland Terrapins (+1).
Maybe, just maybe, the Purdue Boilermakers (25-4 SU, 12-16-1 ATS) will get that No. 1 seed after all, despite losing top player Robbie Hummel (15.7 points, 6.9 rebounds per game) to a knee injury. Unlike Harangody, Hummel has a torn ACL and won’t be coming back anytime soon. If you’re ready to project a Final Four, Purdue might not be your best pick.
The other three would-be No. 1s are probably very disappointed with Duke’s loss to the Terps. As a No. 2 seed, the Blue Devils could end up having to face Syracuse, Kansas or Kentucky in the regionals. That hypothetical game could go either way; Duke was the top-ranked team in Ken Pomeroy’s influential efficiency ratings going into Wednesday’s tough road matchup. It’s going to take some more bracketology to make a sound Final Four projection this year.