"TRUE STEAM" PLAY OF THE DAY
BY VegasRunner
The Betting Syndicates wasted no time at all laying -5.5 with Louisville as soon as this line came out last night...And after the books adjusted up to -6, they left it alone...but not for lone because they immediately went back to work, early this morning...laying -6 on the Home Team once again...In fact, even with the betting public expected to come in on the Ranked Team (UCONN)...the books had no problem once again adjusting this line...The only problem was, they didn't do it fast enough...and they didn't adjust it enough...Because after the Wiseguys went ahead and laid -6, prompting the move to 6.5...the books got hit with another wave of "steam"...which forced the move all the way up to -7...
That was enough to not only make the Outfits back off...but about 20 minutes after a few laid that -6.5...we saw a handful come back and take +7...Which is why we are now seeing this line from anywhere between -6 and -6.5...
Bottom Line...when most bettors see a move like this...Where the Wiseguys seem to be on both sides, they aren't sure what to do...But fortunately, we have enough sources who are behind many of these moves...and are some of the guys who are getting down on these "steam" plays...that we are able to Confirm that the Betting Syndicates have taken a significant position on the Favorite...And any move that don't support this, is simply because some of the Outfits decided to attempt a middle...or even limit liability by getting +7 on the dog...Or it will be brought on by the Books feeling confident that the Outfits are done getting down on this match-up...and therefore they can adjust the number, in an attempt to offer the betting public who is expected to come in on UConn..the worst of it...VR
LINE PREDICTION : I highly doubt that the books will want to risk bringing this number back down to -5.5, regardless of how much public money they book...Because that will actually help them limit their own liability on the game...So I advise that if you are going to follow this play, that you go ahead and lay -6...Which is widely available at this time...Because you just can't be sure, that these Outfits won't go ahead and lay it again...Because according to my own Numbers/Ratings...there is still plenty of value on LOUISVILLE.