Marc Lawrence
100% Perfect NBA Fan Appreciation Play!
Denver Nuggets at Miami Heat
Play On: Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets look to regroup following a devastating 44-point loss Saturday night at New Jersey when they invade South Beach to take on the Heat in Miami tonight. The good news for Denver is their success in this series where they stand 11-2 SU and 8-4-1 ATS of late, including 3-0 SU and ATS when playing off a double-digit loss. In addition, the Nuggets are 12-1 ATS in non-division games when playing off a loss of 36 or more points. The clincher, though, is this angle from our data base. It tells us to: Play On any NBA road team off a loss of 40 or more points vs. a .540 or greater non division opponent. That's because these teams are 9-0 ATS in this role since 1990. Look for Denver to resume its winning ways here today.
Scott Spreitzer
25*- Dallas Mavericks
25*- Kent State
Lenny Del Genio
NBA Trifecta
25* Toronto / Minnesota Over
Cleveland at Indiana
Play: Indiana +6
The Pacers can be a very dangerous home team. Just ask Boston, the Lakers and Orlando, all of whom they have beaten here at Conseco Fieldhouse. Entering February, the team had won seven of eight home games. The Cavs could and should be flat here coming off the loss to the Lakers. Yes, we are aware that Cleveland is a perfect 9-0 ATS off a SU loss this year, but that was their first home loss of the season, so they have yet to be in this particular situation. They also have Phoenix, at home, on deck, so we can see them "looking past" this one. Indiana, meanwhile, will want to atone for a road loss vs. a terrible Washington team Sunday night. They are 16-4 ATS off a road loss this season, which could very well "trump" the Cavs trend. A healthy Mike Dunleavy gives All-Star F Danny Granger a nice scoring compliment. Injuries are starting to be a problem for Cleveland. Take Indiana.
San Antonio at New Jersey
Play: San Antonio -5
We've said this a million times before, but everyone who was writing off the Spurs following their sluggish start to the season should be embarrassed. A return of a healthy starting backcourt (Parker and Ginobili) obviously was the catalyst, but so too is the club's improved defense, always a Greg Popovich hallmark. We've also said this a million times, but San Antonio (an older team) is much better when rested. This will be just their second game in seven days. On Sunday, they proved they are still a force to be reckoned with when they went into Boston and beat the Celtics SU. Meanwhile, this is New Jersey's 3rd game in four nights. We had them Saturday for that incredible 44 point win over Denver, but then Vince Carter got hurt the next night and they got waxed by Orlando. Carter is probable here, but it won't matter. They already have injuries to Jianlin and Swift and PG Harris is in a slump. The Nets have a losing home record this season. Take San Antonio.
Kevin Rogers
Sacramento at Dallas
Play: Sacramento +11
The Mavs are usually a good fade when laying double-digits at home, and Tuesday's home contest with the Kings is no exception. Dallas is 1-5 ATS this season as 10+ home chalk, and 7-16 ATS since the start of last season when laying at least 9.5 points at home. The Mavs will be without spark-plug Jason Terry (averaging nearly 20 ppg), as the shooting guard broke a finger on his left hand in Saturday's overtime win over the Bulls. Home teams off home overtime victories are 4-19 ATS since the beginning of last season, as Dallas would be the go-against team here. Sacramento, meanwhile, has been disappointing this season, but has found a way to hold its own in road covers at Cleveland, Houston, New Orleans (twice, including a SU win), Portland, and the Lakers. The Mavs have covered seven of 20 home games this season, including a 3-8 ATS mark against teams below .500 (two wins against Memphis). The loss of Terry will hurt a lot more than people think, as this number is too much to lay with the Mavs. I'll take Sacramento and the points.
Joe Nelson
New York at Golden State
Play: Golden State -4
The Warriors are really starting to play well at home including only one ATS loss in the past seven home contests Recent wins over Utah and Phoenix as well as an OT loss against San Antonio show that Golden State is finally ready to compete at a high level despite the awful start to the year. On the season Golden State is 15-8-1 ATS at home and although the loss of Biedrins hurts the Warriors overcame that absence to beat Utah on Sunday. The Knicks faced a brutal week of big games last week losing competitive efforts against Los Angeles, Cleveland, and Boston. Then New York faced cross country travel to Portland, suffering a one-point setback on Sunday. This will be a difficult road situation for the Knicks and given that New York has the superior overall record the spread will stay small. Golden State has stepped up on defense in the last few games with much better than season average figures over the past five games. The Knicks have been a solid ATS team but Golden State has had success against Eastern teams and the Warriors are starting to live up to the great potential displayed the past three seasons.
Investment Playmakers
Florida +4 SEC Game of the Week
Kent State -10
Florida State -10.5
Ethan Law
Wright State Raiders at Loyola (IL) Ramblers
Verdict: Wright State 53, Loyola Chicago 56
PLAY 1* UNIT (2%) ON Loyola Chicago +4.5
ATS Lock Club
4 units Witchita St. -6
3 units Villanova -4.5
ATS Financial Package
3 units Seton Hall -1
3 units Hawks -7.5
Maddux Sports
Basketball
3 units on Chicago -2
3 units on New York +4.5
3 units on Hofstra +1.5
3 units on Boston College +3.5
3 units on Kentucky -3.5
Hockey
3 units on Colorado +130
3 units on Nashville +155
Scott Rickenbach
Regular Plays
WICHITA ST -6
PROVIDENCE -1
The Real Animal
2* Michigan State -4
Bell's Best Premium Picks
NBA:
Bulls - 2.5
Cavs - 6.5 ( small play )
NCAAB:
Prov - 1
Marq + 5
Mich + 4
Cajun Sports
New York Knicks vs. Golden State Warriors
Pick: Golden State Warriors -4.5
The Oracle Arena will be the site of tonight’s east meets west clash between the host Golden State Warriors and the visiting New York Knicks. The Knicks have lost four straight games and covered the spread in only two of those losses. The Warriors are coming in off a home win over the Utah Jazz on Sunday winning 116 to 96 and covering as a 2 point home underdog.
New York is 21-29 straight up and 29-21 against the spread this season. The Knicks are 7-17 SU and 14-10 ATS on the road this year and over their last five games they are 1-4 SU and 3-2 ATS averaging 109.8 points per game on 45.8 percent shooting from the field and they are allowing 113.0 points per game on 48.8 percent shooting. New York is 25-43 ATS when they allow 105 or more points in a game the last two seasons and Golden State is 13-5 ATS at home when they score 105 or more points this season.
These teams met back in November at MSG with the Warriors allowing a season-high 138 points and the Knicks won the game 138 to 125. This is a much different Warriors team that the Knicks will face tonight with Stephen Jackson and Monta Ellis in the lineup, both missed the first meeting at MSG. Golden State has more depth in their lineup for this meeting as injuries and suspensions limited them in the early months of the season but it is now beginning to pay dividends.
Golden State when coming off an ATS win and going ‘under’ in their last game and now installed as a favorite they are 71-49-4 ATS if they have a line range of 2-3.5 points their record is 20-8 ATS in that situation. The Warriors coming in off a SU/ATS win and going ‘under’ in their last game and now installed as a favorite of 2-3.5 points are 15-5 ATS if they are a home favorite their record is 11-3 ATS. If they are playing at home in that situation their record is 21-9 ATS their last 30 qualified games. The Warriors are 23-9 ATS in home games after playing two consecutive games as an underdog the last 3 seasons.
Golden State is 17-35 straight up and 24-26 against the spread overall this year. When playing at Oracle they are 12-12 SU but a very solid 15-8 ATS averaging 112.5 points per game on 46.9 percent shooting and allowing 109.4 points per game on 45.1 percent shooting from the field.
Data base research has uncovered key NBA Systems that are active for tonight’s game. Play AGAINST NBA teams after losing straight up, winning against the spread and going ‘over’ on the road in their last game if they are now a road underdog of 2-3.5 points, 28-46-1 ATS. Play ON NBA favorites revenging a straight up loss as a road favorite, with a losing record on the season, 58-27 ATS the last five years.
With significant technical and situational support for the host we will lay the short price with the Warriors as they avenge that early season loss to the Knicks.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: (3*) Golden State Warriors 124 NY Knicks 108
Missouri State vs. Wichita State
Pick: Wichita State -6
The Charles Koch Arena will be the site of tonight’s Missouri Valley Conference clash between the host Wichita State Shockers and the visiting Missouri State Bears. Both teams enter tonight’s contest off losses, the Bears lost at home to Southern Illinois 72 to 64 as a 2.5 point home favorite while the Shockers lost at Evansville 61 to 52 as a 4.5 point road underdog.
Missouri State is 10-14 straight up and 7-15 against the spread overall on the year. When playing away from home they are 1-8 SU and 3-6 ATS averaging 58.3 points per game on 38.7 percent shooting and allowing 69.3 points per game on 48.3 percent shooting from the field. Over their last five games the Bears are 1-4 SU and 0-4 ATS being outscored by almost ten points per game. Conference play has not been any better for Missouri State as they are 3-10 SU and 3-9 ATS shooting only 38.3 percent from the field and allowing opponents to shoot 46.7 percent.
Missouri State is 5-15 ATS versus teams outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game the last 2 seasons, 9-21 ATS versus teams allowing <=64 points per game the last 2 seasons and 0-6 ATS in road games versus teams allowing <=64 points per game after 15+ games the last 2 seasons.
Wichita State is 11-13 straight up and 9-10 against the number this season overall. When playing on their home floor they are 9-3 SU and 3-4 ATS averaging 64.7 points per game on 46.0 percent shooting and allowing 56.7 points per game on 40.6 percent shooting from the field.
These teams met back on January 14 in Springfield with the Bears winning 68 to 55 as a 3.5 point home favorite. The Bears are in a negative situation for this meeting as they are 3-6 ATS as a road underdog this season and averaging 55 points per game their last three on the highway. The Shockers didn’t help their own cause in that meeting as they turned the ball over nineteen times and we do not expect a repeat performance in that department this time around.
This series has been dominated by the Shockers when they meet in Wichita with a 10-1 SU and ATS record in all meetings since 1997. We also see that the Bears after playing at home in their last game and are now installed as a road underdog are 19-34-1 ATS and if they have a line range of 3-6.5 points their record is 5-15 ATS.
With significant fundamental, technical and situational support for the host we will back the Shockers here as they avenge that earlier loss to the Bears and roll to an easy win on Tuesday night.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: (3*) Wichita State 68 Missouri State 56
Lee Kostroski
7* Wichita State (-6) vs. Missouri State
We see great value in the Shockers as a small home favorite on Tuesday night. Wichita State has won 5 of their last 7 including 4 straight home wins. They lost @Evansville by 9 on Saturday, so this will be a game in which they'll want a bounce-back performance. Despite out-rebounding Evansville by 10, they shot just 2-16 from three-point range. The Shockers are 9-3 at home this season, holding opponents to just 56.7 points per game in their 12 home games. Missouri State has lost 7 straight road games and is just 1-8 on the road this season (all losses coming by a combined 11 points per game).
After starting the season at a promising 7-3, Missouri State has posted just a 3-11 record since late December. In their last 6 road games (all losses), their margins of defeat are 24, 11, 12, 14, 5, and 18 points. They have one of the worst offenses in the nation; shooting an average of 39.1% field goals this season, and 31.3% from three point range. They have just one player averaging over 10 points per game. If Wichita State gets any lead whatsoever, don’t expect to see Missouri State make a comeback.
Wichita State is coming off of that road loss to @Evansville on Saturday, as well as their January 14th road loss @Missouri State. This is a great revenge situation for the Shockers who are playing very good basketball right now, against Missouri State, who has lost 7 of their last 10. Missouri State is just 6-20 ATS in their last 26 road games and 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings @Wichita State. Go with the Shockers at home on Tuesday night.
5* Kentucky (-4) vs. Florida
Kentucky started conference play hot, winning their first 5 games by an average of 14 points per game. Since then, they have lost 3 straight by 5, 1, and 9 points. This is a HUGE game for the Wildcats, who have had a week off since their last game, to get a big win against the SEC’s top team (although probably a little overrated). They are 11-4 at home this season, and we expect them to notch their 12th win at home on Tuesday night.
Kentucky has one of the best offenses in the SEC, scoring 77.5 points per game on 49% field goals (8th nationally). Along with their great offense, they also allow just 37.3% field goals on defense (4th nationally). Jodie Meeks and Patrick Patterson give the Wildcats one of the best scoring tandems in the nation, scoring a combined 43.4 points per game between the two of them. Florida has a high-octane offense, but we don’t expect them to be able to contain Meeks and Patterson on defense.
The Gators have played just 6 of their 23 games on the road this season and boast just a 3-3 record. Their wins have come against Central Florida, Auburn, and Vanderbilt. They’ve lost against the “more talented” teams they have played; Florida State, South Carolina, and Tennessee. The home team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings between these two teams and we expect that trend to continue Tuesday. Go with Kentucky
4* Virginia (+11) vs. Florida State
FSU is coming off a big time resume’ building upset @ Clemson on Saturday. It was a huge win for the Noles who rallied from a 19-point second half deficit to grab the close win. They were catching the Tigers in a great spot for a letdown as Clemson had just come off a blowout win over Duke. This team was looking for a “signature win” and now they got it. Leading scorer Toney Douglas knelt at midcourt after the huge come from behind win and stated, “This win is going to go down in history.” Do you think this team is going to be concerned with a 1-7 ACC team just a few days after this monumental win? A UVA team they already beat on the road. No chance. Not only that, FSU takes on Wake Forest this Saturday which will also waver their focus here. A classic sandwich situation for the home team here which will lead to a letdown.
The one thing that stands out to us about this Virginia that is only 1-7 SU in the ACC is they have been fairly competitive in nearly all of their conference games. That’s a good mix for a cover on the road, getting double digits and facing a disinterested FSU team. If you take away the Cavs road game @ Duke where they were dominated, this team has really had a chance in every game. Their road games include a 10-point loss @ Minnesota, a 3-point loss @ Syracuse, a win @ Georgia Tech, a 3-point loss @ Virginia Tech, a 6-point loss @ Maryland and finally last Saturday just a 16-point loss @ North Carolina. The Cavs were down by 20+ @ UNC and battled to the end to close the margin. That’s a good sign for a dog. This team doesn’t quit.
The first match up between these two teams was an 11-point win for FSU on January 24th. Despite shooting only 35% (FSU shot 50%) and a terrible 28% from behind the arc (FSU shot 53% from deep) this game was not a white wash. Against UNC, this Virginia team went with a smaller line up and played zone daring the Heels to shoot from the perimeter. Don’t be surprised if they use the same strategy tonight against a Florida State team that has hit only 29% of its shots from outside the arc in ACC play (11th in the league). As we mentioned, this FSU team hit 53% of their 3-pointers @ Virginia, however that is not their strength and we don’t expect to see that happen again on Tuesday.
We look for FSU to come out flat as a pancake and this to be a close game with a good shot that UVA leads at halftime. The Noles will most likely get it together in the second half at home, but not enough to cover this one. Virginia fights to the end again and gets an easy cover.
Plus Line Sports
NHL
LA Kings puck and money line
NCAA
Seton Hall -1.5
Fairway Jay
Kentucky -4 / 3 units