Brandon Lang
10-Dime Florida State
In case you haven't noticed, the 'Noles have been the Atlantic Coast Conference's surprise team this season, and I don't care where this game is at, I'm going to bank on a big game from Toney Douglas and company tonight. And that includes key reserves, including Ryan Reid.
Think about it, this is a team that was picked among the cellar dwellers in most of the preseason polls, but has raced out to a 22-7 record and a Top 25 national ranking under ACC Coach of the Year-candidate Leonard Hamilton. And with a little momentum from their current 3-1 streak after a 13 point victory over Clemson on Saturday, I'm thinking this is way too many points to give this scrappy bunch.
Hey, I know this is a young Seminoles team, and it’s conceivable many of the freshmen could be overwhelmed by the wild atmosphere inside of the Cameron Indoor Stadium, but the ‘Noles have posted a respectable 3-4 record against Top 25 foes this season. And of those seven games, only two were not against a Top 10 team, while two of them came against Top 3 teams.
Delving into some of the betting numbers, it's easy to take this team, as FSU is on ATS streaks of 12-3 on the road, 14-4 as an underdog, 15-4 in conference play, 8-3 when catching points on the road, 14-6 after a straight-up win and 11-4 overall. Most importantly, despite the dominance by Duke in this series - on the hardwood - Florida State is 8-2 the last 10 meetings - including a 4-0 run at Cameron.
Grab the points boys, this pup is barking loud.
FREE - Weber State
Chris Jordan
200♦ CINCINNATI - Looking to enhance that Big Dance-resume, I’m going to bank on the Bearcats to steamroll a terrible Bulls team that can’t seem to do anything right no matter where it plays. And the fact is Cincinnati knows the importance of this game, so I fully expect the Bearcats to come out fired up from the opening tip with hopes of putting this way thanks to the team’s staunch defense. South Florida has gone just 3-13 within conference play, and two of those wins were against lowly DePaul. It comes into this one on a six-game losing skid, and since the Bearcats have won nine of the last 11 meetings against the Bulls, I don’t see any reason to ignore this low point spread. Lay the chalk with the road team in this one.
200♦ ROCKETS - This one could be over in the first quarter, literally. The Rockets have been dominating teams in H-town, and the Raptors have struggled out of the gate with a suitcase in hand. Tells me we should expect Houston to roll out to huge lead and coast to the easy win tonight. Houston has outscored its foes by an average of 14.5 points during its nine-game home winning streak to bolster its mark inside the Toyota Center to 24-6 this season. On the other hand, the Raptors have lost all three road games since the All-Star break after allowing an average of 32.3 points in the first quarter of those games. Even worse, the Raptors are 3-11 when visiting Western Conference teams and unfortunately are stuck with the East’s worst overall record (9-17) against Western Conference teams. Though Houston is a rather mediocre 14-12 against the Eastern Conference, it’s won seven of its last eight overall.
200♦ PACERS - Indiana needs to continue its drive toward the playoff race, and this might be the perfect place to pick up momentum, as the NBA-worst Kings can’t seem to get out of their own way right now. I’ll lay the low chalk to a team that has lost four of its last five at home and that is 9-20 at Arco Arena, allowing 106.7 points per game. The betting numbers are the key things to concentrate on in this one, as the Pacers are on ATS runs of 5-1 when playing on one days rest and also in their last six games. On the other hand, the Kings are mired in a slew of spread skids of 7-17 at home, 4-11 as a home underdog, 3-9 on Tuesday nights, 8-22 against the Eastern Conference, 3-10 after an ATS cover and 1-10 when catching points up 4-1/2 points. More importantly, in this series, the Pacers have covered four of their last five meetings in Sacramento. Lay the road chalk.
Drew Gordon
1. 50,000♦ Cincinnati
2. 50,000♦ New Mexico
3. 50,000♦ Maryland
1. Cincinnati- Love this spot for the Bearcats, who got completely undressed at Syracuse in a game they needed badly, and now get to take out their frustrations on a very beatable South Florida team tonight. True, Cincy hasn't exactly been reliable on the road, going 4-7 SUATS, but after further review, I'm comfortable laying the points on the road and here's why:
Going back to the loss to Syracuse, Bearcats coach Mick Cronin called a team meeting as soon they arrived in Tampa, stressing just how disappointed he was in their effort against the Orange. They got embarrassed on both ends of the floor, and I fully expect the Bearcats to get back to doing what they do best, namely, stout defense. Couldn't have come against a better opponent, as the Bulls are struggling right now, averaging just 51 ppg on 35% shooting (20% from 3-point)!
Speaking of the Bulls' struggles, since their impressive 57-56 win over Marquette in early February, South Florida has reeled off 6 straight LOSSES (2-4 ATS), ALL by double-digits! They may not lose by double-digits tonight, but you best believe they will not cover, for the same reason they've been losing... Fatigue.
You see, the Bulls have likely lost 3 starters going into tonight (jury is still out on whether Jesus Verdejo will play - I doubt it - but Ajayi and Mercer are gone), and they simply do not have enough talent to keep pace. Cincinnati has been wearing down in the second half of games on a consistent basis since Marquette, and I see no reason for that to change tonight.
Bottom line, coming off a disappointing loss to Syracuse, look for the Bearcats to bring their "A" game tonight in Tampa. Bulls are simply playing out the string, just waiting for the season to end, and as short-handed as they are, I don't blame them. Note, the possible return of F Mike Williams for the Bearcats only gives them that much more depth than USF, and it'll show, as they pull away in the 2nd half tonight.
Take Cincinnati over South Florida in this college hoops match up.
2. New Mexico- For as good as Utah has played at home this season, their resume on the conference trail is hardly impressive. Forget about wins at Wyoming or at Texas Christian, the games that really matter were against the better half of the MWC, including UNLV, San Diego State, and Brigham Young. You know what those 3 teams have in common? ALL three won and covered their home games against this Utah team... So don't tell me the Lobos can't win and cover here!
First off, there's no question "The Pit" is one of the toughest places to play in the MWC, and the fact New Mexico has not lost a conference game there all season only strengthens my point! Just ask Brigham Young how good they are at home, as the Cougars lost by a whopping 19-points, despite being a 1-point road favorite!
So how do the Lobos do it? By taking advantage of the Utah offense that simply cannot keep pace with them. You see, while the Utes offense is highly efficient, and averages 72 ppg on the season, that is NOT the same offense you'll see on the road tonight, where they average just 65 ppg on 43% shooting - those are huge dropoffs any way you look at it! Defensively both teams are similar, allowing about 62 ppg give or take a few, so clearly the difference here comes on the offensive end!
Finally, motivational edge goes to New Mexico as well, as a win here ties them atop the MWC with Utah. Not only that, but simply based on recent play alone, did you see the Lobos last two home games? a 26-point blowout of San Diego State and a 14-point blowout of Texas Christian (no cover against TCU though)! Guys, the Lobos are peaking at precisely the right time, and the fact Utah has had real issues on the conference trail, tells me the only play here is New Mexico.
Take New Mexico over Utah in this college hoops match up.
3. Maryland- Plastered all over every local media source you can find, is this head-line: "One win and there in!" And you know what, they're absolutely right, as a win here against 10th ranked Wake Forest, would fatten up the Terps resume enough to get them to the Dance. Needless to say, that is a HUGE motivational edge, but that's hardly the only reason to like Maryland here...
First off, its no secret the line on this contest is BEGGING you to take Wake Forest, as you get to lay a little less than a basket at the time of this writing. Can't you just see the average bettor salivating at the prospect of getting a ranked team on the road at this bargain price?! Well boys, we know a trap when we see one, and I for one am NOT taking the bait!
Fact is, the Terrapins, while very un-reliable on the road, have been damn good at College Park, going 14-3 SU & 5-4-2 ATS there this season... That includes wins and covers against Miami-Florida, Virginia Tech and of course, North Carolina in OT last month! On the flip side, we've seen some very shoddy road play from this Wake team this season, including losses at Georgia Tech and Miami-Florida.
Also, you have to factor in the Terrapins recent play at home, including that of red-hot star G Greivis Vazquez, who's scored 33+ points in 2 of his last 3 games! Not only that, but last season Vazquez dominated this Wake backcourt, averaging 23 ppg on 54% shooting AND 8 assists! Guys, the Terrapins have won and covered 3 of their last 4 home games against some solid ACC comp, and after a nice road win at NC State in their last one, its safe to say the Terps are playing the kind of basketball they need to win this contest.
Bottom line, with a shaky Wake Forest defense coming to town, and a blistering hot Vazquez leading the charge, look for Maryland to circle the wagons at home in what amounts to basically a must-win situation (they may be could sneak in with a win against Virginia, but rest-assured, that's not what Gary Williams has his troops thinking about). Don't get greedy, take the points, as this one will be close, but in the end the Terps will grab the cash!
Take Maryland plus the points over Wake Forest in this college hoops match up.
Jeff Benton
15 Dime: FLORIDA STATE
5 Dime: LAKERS
Florida State
This pointspread is absurd! Yes, I know the Blue Devils have gotten their act together in the last week, winning and cashing in three straight ACC games. However, they didn’t exactly blow away any of those three opponents, beating Wake Forest 101-91 as an eight-point favorite, edging Maryland 78-67 as a six-point road favorite (the game wasn’t decided until the final two minutes) and holding off Virginia Tech on Saturday 72-65 as a 5½-point road chalk. And don’t forget, prior to this recent run, Duke had failed to cover in five straight games and was 3-9-1 ATS in its previous 13.
Meanwhile, Florida State continues to play solid, fundamental basketball. With the exception of a 23-point loss at Wake Forest on Valentine’s Day, the Seminoles have been in every single conference game, posting a 10-5 SU and 9-4-1 ATS mark, going 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS in the last eight. In addition to the blowout loss at Wake, the ‘Noles dropped a five-point decision at Boston College, a three-point decision at home to North Carolina, a six-point setback at Miami, Fla., and an eight-point loss to Duke (as a 9½-point home underdog) back in Florida State’s ACC opener.
Going back to last season, Florida State has been a dynamite bet on the road (11-3-1 ATS), as an underdog (13-4-1) and in conference play (13-4-2 ATS) – that’s one helluva trifecta. What’s more, the Seminoles have had Duke’s number from a betting perspective, cashing in eight of the last 10 meetings. They’ve also hardly been intimidated by playing in Cameron Indoor Stadium, covering the spread in each of their last four trips, including a 68-67 outright win in 2007.
Again, Florida State has just one double-digit conference loss all season, and don’t forget, this is a squad that went to Pitt – widely regarded as one of the top teams in the country – in December and held its own in a 56-48 loss.
Grab the generous points and watch Florida State stay within this number from wire to wire!
Lakers
The Lakers are coming off back-to-back lopsided road losses to the Nuggets and Suns, and while the game at Denver wasn’t all that shocking (the Nuggets are a first-place club, and L.A. was coming off a home game against Phoenix the night before), Sunday’s 118-111 defeat to the Suns was as unacceptable as it was shocking. Well, since acquiring Pau Gasol 13 months ago, the Lakers have played 108 games (regular season and playoffs) and have lost three in a row exactly ZERO times during this span. The point: They ain't losing tonight!
Now, I know what you’re thinking: “But Jeff, just because they keep that streak alive against Memphis doesn’t mean they’re going to cover this huge number.” True. But my counter-argument is this: The last time L.A. lost back-to-back games was on Jan. 14 (Spurs) and Jan. 16 (Magic), and it came back in the next game and trounced LeBron James and the Cavaliers 105-88 as a five-point favorite.
Here’s a newsflash: The Memphis Grizzlies are not the Cleveland Cavaliers – in fact, they’re the exact opposite! Memphis is 15-43 SU and 22-35-1 ATS on the season, including an NBA-worst 3-23 on the road (9-17 ATS). The Grizzlies come into Staples Center tonight on a seven-game losing skid, and they’ve cracked triple digits just once during the slide (106 points vs. the defensively inept Kings). If Memphis can’t hit triple figures tonight, it stands no chance of covering this number, because L.A. averages better than 108 ppg on the season and more than 109 ppg at home. And aside from the 90-79 loss at Denver, the Lakers have scored 111, 132, 107, 111, 115 and 129 points in their last eight games!
Bottom line: Yes, Memphis has done quite well against the number when playing the Lakers in recent years, cashing in 13 of the last 17 meetings. But I promise you, in none of those 17 games were the Grizzlies facing the Lakers as angry and determined to make a statement as they will be tonight. And when you consider that L.A. doesn’t play again until Friday when it hosts Minnesota, there’s little doubt we’re going to get a fully focused Kobe Bryant and Co. tonight. Lay the chalk, as Memphis is 8-20 ATS in its last 28 overall, 6-14 ATS in its last 20 road games and 0-4 ATS in its last four against Pacific Division squads.
Karl Garrett
30 DIMER - OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS
10 DIMER - NEW JERSEY NETS
Kansas State notched win # 20 on Saturday, but they were extended against a sliding Nebraska team at home. I have a feeling they are going to get their asses kicked tonight at Gallagher-Iba, as Oklahoma State is brimming with confidence - winners of 5 in a row both straight up, and against the spread.
The Cowboys just took down Texas at home on Saturday, and they have gone 7-3-1 against the spread their last 11 home games.
Kansas State is just 4-12-1 against the spread their last 17 on the road, and they are also a money-burning 5-15-1 against the spread their last 21 in conference play.
The Cowboys are 5-1 straight up the last 6 series meetings, and 3-1 against the spread the last 4 series meetings.
Travis Ford has his team playing way too well right now, and Kansas State is walking into a hornets nest tonight.
Lay the points, as Okie State rolls.
10 DIMER - NEW JERSEY NETS
Going to grab the few points they are offering on New Jersey tonight, as the Nets head to the Bradley Center having won 2 of their last 3, covering all 3.
The Nets have also matched up well against the Bucks in recent meetings, as New Jersey won the most recent meeting in early February, 99-85 to make it a 5-1 straight up run the last 6, and 8-2 overall the last 10 meetings. Better still, is New Jersey's 9-1 spread mark in those 10.
With the Bucks having dropped 4 of their last 6, the G-Man thinks this is a golden opportunity for the Nets to pick up a road win. New Jersey is a positive 17-11 against the spread on the road.
Take the points.
Michael Cannon
15 Dime – CINCINNATI
Take Cincinnati as the small road chalk over South Florida.
The Bulls will be missing their second-leading scorer, Jesus Verdejo, who is out indefinitely with an injury to his right foot. On other teams this may not be a huge deal, but for a team like South Florida that struggles to score as it is, this could be a major hurdle for them to overcome.
Mainly because Verdejo is also South Florida’s leading 3-point shooter.
Cincinnati is going to play hard on both ends of the court. That’s a given under coach Mick Cronin. But it’s something that I definitely expect to see tonight after the Bearcats were walloped by Syracuse on Sunday.
The Bearcats simply don’t have any excuse not to come out focused and ready to dispose of the Bulls tonight.
They are one of the bubble teams that’s trying to make it into the NCAA tournament. A loss, or even a less than impressive win tonight and that could end their hopes.
Take Cincinnati minus the small number as they grab the road win and cover.
5 Dime – OKLAHOMA STATE
Take Oklahoma State as the home chalk over Kansas State.
Both teams come into this game on nice runs, but I like the Cowboys to keep it rolling in front of the home crowd.
Oklahoma State has won five in a row SUATS, including Saturday’s 68-59 win over Texas. The Cowboys have allowed just 67.4 ppg during their win streak.
Kansas State has lost five of the last six and eight of the last 10 in this rivalry.
Oklahoma State is on positive ATS runs of 7-3-1 at home, 5-0 in conference play, 5-0 as a chalk and 7-2-1 as a home chalk.
The Wildcats are on ATS slides of 9-19-2 overall, 5-15-1 in Big 12 games, 4-12-1 on the road, 1-5 on Tuesdays, 1-5 after a non-cover and 4-11-1 on the road against teams with a winning home record.
Take Oklahoma State as the home chalk as they grab the win and cover.
BUCKS
Take the Bucks as the home chalk tonight over the Nets.
New Jersey hits the road for the only time during a five-game span and they host Boston tomorrow, so this could be a major flat spot for them.
Milwaukee should be encouraged by its showing in the last two games. They lost by one at Orlando on Friday, then came back and beat the Wizards at home by 16.
Ex-Net Richard Jefferson will be motivated going against his old team here.
Take the Bucks minus the points as they grab the home win and cover.
Sports Gambling Hotline
MILWAUKEE SERVICE
Top-Rated GOLD play on Charlotte minus the points over the Bulls.
Bonus SILVER play on Florida State plus the points.
Bonus BRONZE play on Valparaiso plus the points.
Tony Weston
20 Dime Florida State
10 Dime Pacers
Florida State at Duke
FLORIDA STATE - Almost out of nowhere the Florida State Seminoles have become a player in the ACC and are only two games out of first place, sitting at 22-7 SU overall and 9-5 SU in conference.
Also, sitting at 15-7-1 ATS, the Seminoles are the strongest money maker in the conference, and now battle a Duke team that’s covered in only three of its last five games overall.
Florida State, on the other hand, has been a money maker on many different levels, covering in 13 of its last 19 games in the ACC and covering in 11 of its last 15 games on the road.
At 10-4-1 ATS over their last 15 games overall, the Seminoles have a cover to their credit against these Blue Devils, losing 66-58 as a 9 1/2 point underdog on Jan. 10.
But that’s no aberration as Florida State is 8-2 ATS its last 10 games against the Blue Devils, including covers in four straight games at Duke.
The Seminoles have covered in four of their last five against the Blue Devils and will cover once again tonight. Take the points and take Florida State on the road in this one.
Pacers at Kings
PACERS - Even though the Indiana Pacers have seen their season waste away, sitting at 26-36 SU this season, the Pacers actually have been a money maker, with a 34-26-2 ATS mark.
Now Indiana hits the road where it will cash in once again as it battles a Sacramento Kings team that might be the worst team in the NBA.
The Pacers come into tonight’s game having covered in five of their last six games, including covers in each of their last two contests at the Boston Celtics and at home against the Denver Nuggets, whom they beat outright 100-94 as a 2-point underdog.
Including that cover on the road at the Celtics, Indiana has covered in three consecutive roadies and now travels to Sacramento, where it is 4-1 ATS its last five games, including covers in three straight in California’s Capitol.
Consider, too, that in this series the road team is on a 5-game cover streak.
That bodes well for the Pacers who face a Kings team that has only covered seven times in its last 24 games at home and is only 1-9 ATS when installed as an underdog of between 1/2 and 4 1/2 points.
Sacramento has also only covered in eight of its last 30 games against the Eastern Conference and will drop another one tonight. Take the Pacers on the road in this one tonight.
BookieBasherSports
Duke -12.5
BobbyClarkeSports
Maryland +1.5 Wager 550 to win 500
Utah +4.5 Wager 550 to win 500
Alabama -1.5 Wager 550 to win 500
California Sports
4'* Cinn
4* Syr
4* Yougstown
3* Virg
3* Charlotte - NBA
blade you do a excellent job in posting plays-my question is why the boss won't let you post all plays ? thanks for your help.
Some services/sites have asked that they not be posted and the boss would rather steer clear of possible problems and do as they ask.
Blade,
Is there a list of what services you don't want posted?
blade you do a excellent job in posting plays-my question is why the boss won't let you post all plays ? thanks for your help.
Some services/sites have asked that they not be posted and the boss would rather steer clear of possible problems and do as they ask.
Blade,
Is there a list of what services you don't want posted?
I would rather not draw attention to them since I catch them but thanks for the offer.
Raging Bull
NBA
Houston Rockets -8
Milwaukee Bucks vs. New Jersey Nets over 205
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Golden State Warriors over 227
NCAA
Weber St. -3.5
Wisconsin-Milwaukee -7.5
Florida State +13
Auburn vs. Alabama over 144
blade you do a excellent job in posting plays-my question is why the boss won't let you post all plays ? thanks for your help.
Some services/sites have asked that they not be posted and the boss would rather steer clear of possible problems and do as they ask.
Blade,
Is there a list of what services you don't want posted?
I believe its the pregame guys . The ones that are decent - VR - SHARP
Rocketman
3* Montana St
3* Tenn Tech
3* Fla (NHL)
3* Nets