JR Tips
BBC Special VIP
KNICKS / NUGGETS OVER 221.5
Seabass
20* Columbus
30* Atl/76ers Under
50* Baylor,ND,Nuggets
100* Port/Utah Under
100* Steam 76ers
Adam Meyer
San Diego State +1 6 units
Notre Dame -4 6 units
DR BOB
NBA Opinions
Chicago (+2) over INDIANA
The Bulls are coming off a loss at Toronto on Sunday, but Chicago is 20-3 ATS when facing a losing team after a loss as long as they are not favored by more than 4 points. The Bulls are also 26-17-1 ATS with Kirk Hinrich playing and are better since acquiring Brad Miller from Sacramento. My ratings make this game a pick and I’ll lean with the Bulls as an underdog. I’d play Chicago in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 or more.
PORTLAND (-6) over Utah
The Jazz are coming off a home win last night against the Knicks, but they’ve struggled in the second of back-to-back nights (5-12 ATS), particularly against decent teams that had the previous night off (1-10 ATS unrested and facing a team with a win percentage of .400 or greater with rest). The Jazz are also only 6-11 ATS as a road underdog this season, including 1-8 ATS unrested against a rested opponent, and Portland applies to a very good 202-91-8 home favorite momentum situation. The Blazers are also a streaky team that is 16-4 ATS at home after consecutive wins the last two seasons and it’s not surprising that the home team in this series has covered 6 consecutive times. Unfortunately, my ratings only favor the Blazers by 4 ½ points with Utah at full strength (they’ve had numerous injuries this season that have affected their play) even after factoring in the extra home court advantage and Utah’s lack of rest. Using only Utah’s road games against Portland’s home games (and adjusting for the current personnel of each team) would yield a line of 6 ½ points but past home-road dichotomy is mostly random variance. In other words, the fact that Portland and Utah have both performed much better at home than they have overall does not mean that is likely to continue at the same degree going forward. I’ll lean with Portland at -6 or less and I’d take Portland in a 2-Star Best Bet at -5 points or less.
Overthespread
25 Dimes Notre Dame/Penn State - Over
25 Dimes San Diego State
EXECUTIVE
250% Philadelphia -2
250% Old Dominion +2
INDIAN COWBOY
4 Unit Play. Take Under 139 between Notre Dame vs. Penn State
The line opened up at 137 and continues to rise as it sits around 139 and 139.5 in some books now and could even get up to 140 or 140.5 as tihs is one of just 3 college basketball games on tap today. So, just hang out until closer to game time as you can get a better line here. If you are looking for another solid play, I was looking at Baylor given that the Big 12 is much stronger, Baylor had the stronger SOS, and comes off some big wins over Va Tech (ACC), Kansas St (Big East) and Auburn (SEC), but laid off as San Diego State has a lot of height and that could give Baylor some problems down low if SDS decides to pound the ball inside and a team that relies so much on their outside shooting worries me a bit. So, instead, we will take the Under in the other Madison Square Garden game tonight. This game is on neutral footing in MSG and Penn State is actually catching 4 points here. I think what is surprising is the surge at which Penn State has played of late. They want to be here. I'm not sure that can be said about Notre Dame. Notre Dame is a top 40 school that beat UAB 70-64 (134) at home, New Mexico 70-68 (138) and Kentucky 77-67 (144) at home. Something that has gone under the radar is the fact ND has played in 8 of 9 Unders with the Kentucky game the first one going over in quite some time. Penn State beat GM at home in OT 77-73 (130 in regualtion), beat Rhode Island at home 71-62 (133) and went on the road to beat Florida 71-62 (133). It will be fun to see a Big East vs. a Big 10 showdown here. Notre Dame has not been known to put up a ton of points on neutral footing as even in the Big East tournament this team put up 61 against Rutgers and 62 against West Virginia. If the Penn State/Purdue game totals at 145 on neutral footing, I find it tough to see this total going over 140 as ND has not been that scoring prowess of late. It's tough to lean on Penn State when you have a team from the Big East that has a tougher SOS here. The total has been rising since its offering at 137 as it now sits at 139 to 139.5 I think it will go higher and I like the Under here as I think the public might take it up the chin here. The Under is 6-0 for the Irish as a favorite and 8-3 when the Irish are small favorites as I believe this game will finish with both teams in the mid 60's - something of a total in the mid 130's.
4 Unit Play. Take the Sacramento Kings +6.5 over the New Orleans Hornets
The Kings just come off an Outright win over the Suns which was a POD we were on Sunday. Sac has covered against this team the last 5 times they have played, they beat them the first game in November by 9, then the Hornets beat them by 9 and then 7 on the road. These two teams are very familiar with each other and every year the Kings at this time of the year go on a little streak to close the year. I think that will be the same this year as this team gets healthier at the close of each year and will start playing well in the hopes of still being on this team next year - but that is another story in and of itself. The Hornets come off a big win over the Spurs and they won this game without Chandler and I think they are in for a bit of a let down today. The Kings have double-revege in ARCO, I think they can hang tight here with an outside shot at winning outright - the same situation of revenge and potential outright win against the Suns. Bear in mind I liked the Spurs a good bit today, coming off a loss and having revenge against the Thunder, but rather than lay the 11.5, now 13.5 in some books againts a Thunder team coming off two ugly losses, I'd rather take the home team here plus the points, having revenge as well, but again catching the 6.5 rather than laying it and leaving the door open for a possible backdoor. I look for the Kings to cover their 6th straight againts the Hornets who without Chandler will be missing a center peice today and Hawes, Nocioni and Thompson should be a handful down low while Beno and Kevin should be solid up top. The Hornets have not been covering against the weaker teams in the league on the road as they are 1-7 ATS on the road against teams with a losing home record (which means overall losing record as well), the Kings are 7-1 as an Underdog of this margin and 5-1 as a home dog of this margin as well.
Cal Sports
4* LA Lakers
3* Detroit
4* ND/PSU Under
SmashYourBook
San Diego State
Dr Bob
3* Cleveland -9'
DOC
5 Units BAYLOR
3 Units Notre Dame
Alatex
Super Play - Baylor
JMK Winners
10* Baylor
10* Hawks
5* Jazz
PPP
3% Atlanta
3% Bradley
2% Penn State
2% San Diego State