Gerry Andino
20* Orlando over 187.5 (100 Dime NBA LOCK CLUB)
10* Dodgers +145
10* Orlando +1.5
10* San Diego +150
10* St Louis -120
10* Tampa Bay over 9
Al DeMarco
10 Dime - San Francisco -1.5
The Run Line must be your friend if you love betting baseball.
Back when I started betting baseball in the early 80's, I never bothered with the Run Line. It wasn't necessary because you rarely had big numbers. Sure, when Doc Gooden or the Big Unit or The Rocket were in their prime and their teams were winning, you would get numbers around 220 to 260, but those big prices were reserved for those name pitchers generally. But expansion, steroids, juiced balls, smaller ballparks, and lousy pitching changed the betting dynamics in the mid-to-late 90's. Suddenly you had nobodies laying -200, and that trend continues today as you'll find an average No. 3 or No. 4 starter at home pitching for a team on a modest winning streak suddenly laying -180 or more.
As you know, -160 is my personal cap; plus, you don't need any handicapper telling you to bet on heavy favorites anyway. In reality, I rarely go over -150. But over the past decade, I've fallen in love with Run Line releases. It's a great way to back heavy favorites, who are favorites because they should win in the first place. And as offense has dominated the sport, you don't find that many great two-sided pitching duels so laying 1 1/2 runs is more often than not a wise investment strategy. Thus is the case with tonight's play on San Francisco.
The Giants, who had dropped eight of nine, won for the second time in three games against Atlanta with yesterday's 8-2 rout. Tonight they send Tim Lincecum to the mound and all he's done in his brief career is simply dominate the Braves, winning all four of his prior starts against them, averaging a strikeout per inning en route to compiling a 2.70 ERA.
Lincecum bounced back nicely from a horrific start against the Mets on May 15 with a strong effort against San Diego last Thursday, holding the Padres to one run and four hits while fanning 10 batters.
Atlanta gives Kris Medlen his second major league start. His first wasn't too successful as the 23-year-old righthander, who had been 5-0 with a 1.19 ERA in Triple-A, allowed five runs in three innings of a loss at home versus Colorado, a game which also featured five walks, one balk, two wild pitches and one hit batter.
As I post this play this morning, I see San Francisco is already approaching 180 on the moneyline. But on the Run Line, it's a different story as I'm actually getting the Giants as an underdog since I'm willing to lay the 1 1/2 runs. A risky proposition? I think not because of the pitching mismatch as I'm counting on Lincecum to hold the Braves in check, as he has throughout his career, while San Francisco's weak line-up does just enough damage against Atlanta's rookie starter.
IndianCowboy
4 Units Orlando +1.5
4 Units Texas Rangers
Tony Salinas
Cavaliers/Magic UNDER 188
Orioles (+105) over Bluejays
Marlins/Phillies OVER 10
Brandon Lang
15 Dime Cavs
Craig Davis
30 Dime Astros
Scott Delaney
40 DIME HOUSTON ASTROS (WITH Oswalt) - I know the Astros have dropped five straight to tie a season high, and I know Roy Oswalt comes into this one having allowed a minimum of three runs in four straight starts, while failing to last seven innings in any of them; but the fact is the Astros couldn’t ask for a better opponent and a better pitcher to shake off both funks.
They call him the Reds killer, he’s taking the hill tonight and I’m jumping into this one head first.
Houston is a stunning 24-6 when right-hander Roy Oswalt toes the slab against the Reds, and an even more remarkable 12-2 when he starts in Cincinnati. And how about this number: Oswalt brings in a lifetime 23-1 record against the Reds along with a 2.35 ERA.
Oswalt is a perfect 8-0 in 10 starts against the Reds the past three years, and surprisingly, the only two game he didn’t win over that duration was this season, despite a pair of outstanding performances. The fiery hurler gave up just one run over 13 innings in those contests.
Houston should get the run support he’ll need against Micah Owings, who is looking to halt a personal two-game skid and comes in after getting shellacked for five runs in three innings last Thursday night in a 12-5 home loss to Philadelphia. And while I know Owings is 2-1 in his three home starts, all three have gone over and much of that is due to his 5.63 ERA at Great American Ball Park.
We’re laying the road chalk here with the Astros tonight, as Oswalt works his magic once again.
Chris Jordan
300♦ UNDER Tigers/Royals - Where do we start with what I believe will be a low-scoring, pitchers’ duel?
The Tigers have stayed low in six of their last seven while Kansas City has stayed under in three of its last four. And with Edwin Jackson and Zack Greinke toeing the slab, I have to believe we’re making the right move with the under in this game.
Jackson has been surprisingly good through the first couple months, as the right-hander has a 2.55 ERA on the year, and that’s been bolstered by a 2-1 mark in four road starts, along with a stifling 1.33 ERA. After two second-rate campaigns with Tampa Bay, Jackson has emerged with the lowest ERA of Detroit’s rotation in 2009. He’s now 3-0 with a 1.64 ERA in his last three outings, including last Thursday, when he allowed three runs over eight frames in a 4-3 victory against Texas.
With Greinke, we have a young and hungry pitcher who is still 7-1 with a 0.82 ERA despite the fact Kansas City has lost two of the last three times he’s toed the slab. Don’t think that fat has escaped him. He’s yet to allow a home run and continues to lead the majors in ERA. Get this, he’s gone 19 straight innings against the Tigers without allowing an earned run. He’s already tossed a three-hitter April 24 versus the Tigers this year in a 6-1 victory. Greinke is 5-0 in six home starts and has a 1.05 ERA there.
Let’s play this one low
DAVE MALINSKY
4* Orlando
4* Indians
4* Yankees
Wayne ROOT
Orlando magic
Texas Rangers
Minnesota Twins
PPP
5* Cavs
Mike Rose
2* Cleve +13
3* Phila Over 10
2* Stl Under 8.5
5* Minn -04
C-Stars Sports
5000 Units Super Lock Orlando/Cleveland OVER the total
Bob Balfe
Orlando Magic -1
Cleveland Indians +105
Robert Ferringo
2.5-Unit Play. Take Philadelphia (-150) over Florida
Philly shouldn't have lost last night. If not for one garbage called ball by Marvin Hudson to Wes Helms in the middle of that game (2-2 pitch was PERFECT from Moyer, called a ball, next pitch was a three-run home run) then they would have won. I think that Joe Blanton is goofy. But he always pitches well at home and has been very good pitching after a loss. The Phils are 12-3 in his last 15 home starts and they are 8-1 in his last nine home starts. The Marlins are 4-18 against a right handed starter and they are just 2-7 in Andrew Miller's last nine starts. I'm not a big Blanton guy, but I can tell you this: Miller is a mess. The Phillies are 20-8 against left handed starters, 41-14 as a favorite of -151 or higher, and they are always a good bet after a loss. Philadelphia is the better team, they are 30-11 against divisional teams, the Marlins are 10-24 in their last 34 games, and we have the better pitcher, with a team not wanting to lose the series. All of the motivation is there.
2.5-Unit Play. Take Chicago Cubs (-150) over Pittsburgh
Note: Drop to a 2-Unit Play.
We're in a similar spot with the Cubs here. The Cubs are 17-5 in their last 22 meetings with Pittsburgh. They own the Pirates. They are better than the Pirates. And this Chicago team has been dominating at home over the last three years. So it's a lot ot ask for the Pirates to come in and sweep a Cubs team that is desperate for a win. The Cubs were a little jet-lagged yesterday coming in from San Diego, and that showed with their slow start. But they are trotting out a lefty - even if he's not a very good one - and that has been Pittsburgh's Achilles Heel. The Pirates are No. 26 in the league hitting left-handed pitching. They are 23-52 against a left-handed starter, which means that they lose about two of every three games that they play against a southpaw. Also, the Pirates are going with Ian Snell, who is 1-5 this year and is 5-16 in his last 21 road starts. Snell has a 8.18 ERA in night games this year and he is 1-5 with a 5.83 ERA in his 11 career appearances against the Cubs. This play fits into one of my Runline Systems, so I would normally be throwing a run line play on top of it. But the way things are going I don't want to press my luck and I'm just looking for an outright winner.
2.5-Unit Play. Take L.A. Angels (-1.5, +110) over Chicago
The Angels got embarrassed yesterday. And if you look back over this season, teams that lost by 10 or more runs the night before are winning their next game around 75 percent of the time. The exact same thing just happened to the White Sox, who got blitzed 20-1 by the Twins and then came back to win three of their next four games. The White Sox are not a good road team and they are trotting out Bartolo Colon and his 5.79 road ERA. Also, Bart has a 7.90 ERA in night games this year and the White Sox have lost six of his last seven starts. On the other side, the Angels are going to Joe Saunders. The Angels are 44-18 in Saunders' last 62 starts. That means that he wins more than two of every three times he takes the hill. He is also 14-6 at home and he is 2-1 with a 3.96 ERA in his starts against the White Sox. The Angels have been one of the best home teams in baseball over the last six years and the White Sox are one of the worst road teams in baseball this season. So after the bad road team wins Game 1 I look for the strong home team to get back and get a 'W'.
2-Unit Play. Take Arizona (-155) over San Diego
Just another kick in the groin yesterday as the D-Backs bullpen comes back to kill them, and our wager, by blowing a 7-1 lead with six outs to go. Unreal. San Diego has won 10 straight. But because of their style they are going to be streaky all year. I think that they peaked yesterday and it's time for them to come back down to earth. Max Scherzer has shown some really good stuff this year and is far superior to Kevin Correia. The Padres are 29-60 in their last 89 games in Arizona. So they lose about two of every three times there. The Padres are also 21-58 as a road underdog. So they lose about three of every four times that they are a road dog. The Padres are also just 30-64 on the road, so they lose about two of every three road games overall (and that includes a 6-16 road record this season). So, basically, they lose about two of every three games in these situations that they are in. Well, they won yesterday. So now that we have the better pitcher and the team that performed better for 8 out of 10 innings yesterday I think we're in a position to get the victory that we should have had yesterday.
1.5-Unit Play. Take Minnesota (+105) over Boston
I don't think that Boston is going to sweep the Twins in the Metrodome. The Twins have been too good of a home team over the last five years to expect that. And since there aren't injury issues or anything that would suggest that they will play at less than 100 percent then I will bet them today and, if they lose, I will be on them tomorrow as well. The Red Sox are 11-25 on turf and they are just 5-11 in Minnesota. The Twins are 51-22 at home and Nick Blackburn is 8-1 at home against a team with a winning record. Again, I just think that a road sweep against one of the best home teams in baseball is a lot to ask.
1.5-Unit Play. Take Houston (-130) over Cincinnati
The Astros are 23-5 when Roy Oswalt starts against the Reds. That is the definition of automatic play and I would never leave this game off any card. The Astros are 10-1 when Oswalt starts in the Great American Ballpark and overall the Astros are 19-7 at Cincinnati. Further, Houston is 38-15 in its last 53 meetings with the Reds. Cincinnati is playing without Brandon Phillips, who is their best player, and the Astros are ready to snap out of a losing streak.
1.5-Unit Play. Take Kansas City (-150) over Detroit
Betting on Zach Grienke again. He is the stopper for the Royals and will help get them back in the win column. Grienke is 11-2 in his last 13 starts and he is the best pitcher in baseball right now. The Tigers have been hot, but the Tigers are not a good road team. So they won in a blowout yesterday. And along the same lines as our play on the Angels I expect the Royals to come out with some fire behind their ace and after getting embarrassed by a division rival yesterday. This is just a huge game for this franchise and I expect the Royals to perform accordingly. Grienke is 16-4 as a favorite, he is 5-2 in his last seven home starts against the Tigers, he is 6-1 against divisional opponents and he is 5-1 overall against the Tigers. Edwin Jackson is due for a down game. He is not as good as he has been throwing. And even though I think he'll hold the Royals down a bit (this game is going 'under') he will blink before Grienke does.
1.5-Unit Play. Take Toronto (-115) over Baltimore
Note: Bump to a 2-Unit Play. My info suggests that Brian Roberts might not tonight play for the O's.
Toronto has seen the wheels come off lately. But I'm a big Ricky Romero fan. And normally I would wait at least an outing before betting on him (he's coming back from injury) but I just think that the Blue Jays are due in the biggest of ways. They have been playing like hell lately. But they aren't a bad team and I can feel them ready to get over the hump. The Jays are 13-4 in their last 17 games against the Orioles. They are 38-18 against a team with a losing record and 42-19 when they are favored. So, again, we're looking at situations where our side wins about two of every three games. We have a matchup advantage on the mound so I'll take those odds. Baltimore is 15-49 in divisional games and they are 12-29 at home against a left-handed starter. The Jays are facing some kid making his MLB debut and I think that they are going to get all over this rookie.
1.5-Unit Play. Take San Francisco (-165) over Atlanta
Tim Lincecum is facing an Atlanta lineup that may again be without Chipper Jones and will have a beat-up Yunel Escobar (don't be surprised if he sits as well). The Braves are trotting out a rookie making just his second Big League start and the kid got absolutely manhandled by the Rockies last week (five runs in three innings) at home in the friendly confines of Turner Field. Now Kris Medlen is squaring off against the reigning Cy Young winner. Good luck with that. The Giants will take advantage of playing at home against a banged up Atlanta squad. The Braves weren't playing well at all until the bumblling Blue Jays came to town. So don't be fooled by their 5-2 mark in their last seven coming into San Fran.
1-Unit Play. Take St. Louis (-110) over Milwaukee
This is part of my sweep system. There are some other factors, but basically one team sweeping an opponent - especially a divisional opponent - twice in a row is extremely rare. The Cardinals were swept at home last week and lost Game 1 here. I will be taking them tonight and, if they lose, I will be taking them again tomorrow. St. Louis is getting really good pitching and I think that the line on this one (Cards being favored) speaks volumes.
Today's Totals
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.5 Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 10.5 N.Y. Yankees at Texas
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 10.0 Florida at Philadelphia
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.5 Toronto at Baltimore
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 8.5 St. Louis at Milwaukee
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.0 San Diego at Arizona