Stan Sharp
Tue, 12/11/07 - NBA Total
triple-dime bet UTA / POR Under 203.5
Analysis: Tonight Stan's Top NBA TOTALS Bettor has Bet the UTAH/PORTLAND GAME UNDER. Utah returns home and puts the clamps on Portland tonight. Stan's people expect this game to land between 189-194 Points easily going UNDER. TAKE PORTLAND/UTAH UNDER as STAN'S NBA WESTERN CONFERENCE TOTAL OF THE MONTH and make them a TRIPLE DIME PLAY.
Vegas Sports Experts
The VSE Hoops Power Play of the Day is:
Take Seattle (+8.5) over Chicago (NBA Power Play)
Michael Cannon
Tuesday's Plays...
15 Dime –
ST. MARY’S
Take the points with St. Mary’s tonight when they travel to take on Southern Illinois.
St. Mary’s has plenty of experience and their overall talent level is its best in years.
They could be the best defensive team in the conference after being second in points allowed and field-goal percentage defense last year. They have the versatility to adjust their lineup according to their opponent’s strength and style.
St. Mary’s is also a strong rebounding team that blocks a lot of shots.
The Gaels have a proven star in Diamon Simpson and another potential one in Patrick Mills. Mills has the ability to break down the defense off the dribble and his presence allows Todd Golden to move back to his natural shooting guard spot.
Southern Illinois has dropped three in a row both SU and ATS. On Saturday they were blown out at 71-56 Charlotte as a 4 ½-point chalk.
St. Mary’s is on ATS runs of 7-2 overall and 4-1 on the road.
Southern Illinois is just 4-11 ATS in its last 15 following a straight-up loss.
Take the points with St. Mary’s as they stay within the number against a struggling Southern Illinois squad.
10 Dime –
SONICS
Take the points with Seattle tonight when they take on the Bulls in Chicago.
I know Seattle is not a good team, but ask yourself what have the Bulls done this year to make you think they’re going to cover this medium pointspread?
The fact that the Sonics are on the road away from its unsettled and negative home situation could be a positive for them.
There is concern in Chicago that the players are turned off by coach Scott Skiles’ in-your-face style. Ben Wallace is but a shell of his former self and Ben Gordon’s shots haven’t been dropping.
Rookie Kevin Durant may be enough to keep Seattle within this number by himself.
Take the points as Seattle grabs the cash for us tonight.
Toronto (-2) at ATLANTA
By Brandon Lang, Featured Handicapper
Coming off the free winner on the Over in last night's Saints/Falcons contest, we head to the NBA tonight.
I know the Hawks are coming in off their upset-win over the Magic, but to pull off two in a row on back-to-back nights will be a tough chore to ask.
Especially with Chris Bosh back, and quite possibly Andrea Bargnani joining him.
Bosh is averaging team highs of 18.9 points and 8 rebounds but missed five games with a groin injury. In Sunday's return, he poured in 21 points and grabbed 10 rebounds as the Raptors stomped the Rockets, 93-80. With Bargnani's potential return, the perimeter game would strengthen.
Toronto, which has won two straight in this series and seven of the last 10, is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 meetings. The road team has an identical ATS mark the last 11 times these two teams have played.
RAPTORS
Toronto at ATLANTA (+2)
By Bobby Maxwell, Featured Handicapper
How about that FREE winner Monday night when we said take the Hawks in Orlando on the NBA slate? Not only does Atlanta cover, but the Hawks come out and win it outright by 11 points. Tonight, keep the same red-hot roster on our side, play the Hawks as they host Toronto.
We gotta go with these red-hot Hawks back home tonight after a huge win in Orlando on Monday. Atlanta scored an 11-point win, 98-87, against the Magic as 10 1/2-point underdogs.
It was the seventh win in the last 10 games for the Hawks who have allowed just one team to cross the 100-point mark in their last 11 games. Atlanta has now won three straight and the Hawks are 6-4 ATS in their last 10.
Toronto has lost two of its last three games overall and dropped three straight on the road, including a 112-84 blowout loss in Boston on Friday night as 12 1/2-point underdogs.
The Raptors have won two straight against Atlanta, but the Hawks scored three straight wins back in 2006.
We like the way the Hawks have been playing lately. Defense is always the key to winning basketball and look for more intesity on the defensive side tonight with Atlanta. Play the Hawks.
2* ATLANTA
LA Clippers at NEW JERSEY (-7)
By Chuck Franklin, Featured Handicapper
Nothing like having the LA Clippers come to New Jersey to get the Nets back on the winning track. The Nets have lost three games in a row, but they have beaten the Clippers eight straight when playing at home. Vince Carter and Jason Kidd are playing well and will get the Nets a much needed win tonight. Carter is averaging 29 points per game in each of his last three home games against Los Angeles. New Jersey is on a 6-0 ATS run when playing NBA Pacific Division teams and they are 5-1 ATS the last six games played against losing teams.
The Clippers are feeling the effects of losing Elton Brand and Shaun Livingston to injuries. Chris Kaman is trying to pick up the slack, but Los Angeles has lost eight of the last nine games played and they are on a 3-13 SU and ATS run. They have lost seven straight pointspread decisions against Eastern Conference opponents and 1-5 ATS the last six road games.
The Nets will win by double-digits!
3* NEW JERSEY
Clippers at NETS (-7)
By Chris Jordan, Featured Handicapper
Your free winner is on New Jersey to get it done over the visiting Clippers, as we lay the chalk and focus on a blouwout win in the Garden State.
Two days after losing to the Heat at home in the Staples Center, Los Angeles brings its show to the East Coast for its third game in five days. Only with this one being a good 3,000 miles away, I'll lay the home chalk with the Nets taking out a weary Clippers team that left L.A. immediately after losing to Miami, arrived at its New York City hotel at 2 a.m. Monday morning and had an early practice eight hours later.
I know the Nets have lost three straight games and four of the past five, but this is a perfect opportunity for them to right the ship and gain momentum against an extremely tired and lethargic team that has lost 12 of 15 on the floor since starting the season 4-0.
The Clippers are mired in a 3-13 ATS skid in their last 16 overall. Los Angeles is also 1-5 ATS in its last six on the road and 0-7 ATS in its last seven against the Eastern Conference.
Meanwhile, the series trends are in our favor, just check the numbers: the favorite is 7-1 ATS the last eight meetings, the home team is 4-0 SU and 6-1 ATS most recently, and while the Clippers are 1-4 ATS the last five times these two have danced, they're also 0-7 ATS the last times they've stepped onto the court in Jersey.
4* NETS
Detroit (-5') at MEMPHIS
By Joel Tyson, Featured Handicapper
The Detroit Pistons visit the Memphis Grizzlies tonight. The Pistons enter winners of the last four between these two, and have won eight of their last ten.
The Grizzlies come in 6-14 overall, and have managed just three wins in their last ten played.
I have no problem laying what I think is a very small number tonight on the road with a team that is as experienced as this Pistons team. The Grizzlies I will be the first to admit, despite their record are somewhat improved this year over the recent ones. However they will find tonight they are still not at the level of this Detroit team that will prove to have multiple match up problems for them to face.
Detriot wins going away.
4* DETROIT
Portland at UTAH (-12')
By Michael Cannon, Featured Handicapper
A loser on the total last night between the Saints and Falcons drops my record to 11-7-1 with my last 19 overall free plays.
Lay the big number with Utah tonight when they host Portland.
Expect Utah to come out fired-up tonight since this is its only home game during a five-game stretch.
Carlos Boozer is turning into a possible MVP candidate, averaging a double-double on the year so far.
The Jazz have been a money making machine at home while Portland has struggled against the spread on the road.
Lay the points as Utah grabs the home win and cover.
2* UTAH
Insider Sports Report
4* Toronto/Atlanta (NBA) OVER 184.5 Range 182.5 to 186.5
3* L.A. Clippers +7 over New Jersey (NBA) Range +9 to +5.5
3* Detroit/Memphis (NBA) OVER 202.5 Range 201 to 204.5
Docs sports
3 unit bradley -1.5
Strike points
2 unit bradley 1.5
WINNING POINTS
NBA
Tuesday, December 11
*Cleveland over Indiana by 5
Maybe the Pacers will catch a break and Jermaine O?Neal (check status) won?t be able to play. He?s only been a shade of his former self this season. O?Neal?s low-post presencedoesn?t fit in with new coach Jim O?Brien?s fast-paced style. Indiana won five of its first six games without O?Neal, who has been battling a knee injury. The Pacers have averaged 108 points during this span and have defeated Dallas and Denver. They were held to 90 points or less five times during November ? all five times O?Neal was in the lineup. CLEVELAND 110-105.
*Washington over Minnesota by 8
Al Jefferson has emerged as a solid double/double man, averaging better than 20
points and 11 rebounds through the month of November. Unfortunately for
Minnesota, there is little else. The Timberwolves are 17-41-2 ATS heading into
December. The Wizards were 5-4 in their first nine games without Gilbert Arenas.
WASHINGTON 112-104.
Toronto over *Atlanta by 2
The Raptors have the superior guard depth, especially at point guard with T.J. Ford
and Jose Calderon. TORONTO 103-101.
*New Jersey over Los Angeles Clippers by 4
The Nets are banged-up in the fore-court, the Clippers have backcourt injuries. The
Clippers had failed to cover nine of their last 10 games entering December. NEW
JERSEY 101-97.
Detroit over *Memphis by 4
Often overvalued by the bookmaker, the Pistons have failed to cover 14 of their last
21 through Dec. 1. The Grizzlies have three shot-blockers with Pau Gasol, Stromile
Swift and Darko Milicic. DETROIT 110-106.
**PREFERRED
Seattle over *Chicago by 1
The Sonics have some serious deficiencies, with lack of a reliable point guard being
perhaps their No. 1 headache. But the team is better than the linesmaker often gives
them credit for and getting away from their unsettled and negative home situation
could be a positive thing. The Bulls opened with 10 losses in their first 13 games.
There is concern the players are turned off by Scott Skiles? in-your-face coaching style.Ben Wallace has regressed and Ben Gordon?s shots haven?t been dropping. Chicagoisn?t nearly good enough to cover a medium pointspread without a strong effort.
SEATTLE 103-102.
**PREFERRED
*Utah over Portland by 16
Expect the Jazz to be fired-up since this is their only home game during a five-game
stretch. Carlos Boozer (check status) is turning into an MVP possibility, averaging better than 25 points and 11 rebounds through November. The Jazz have covered six of their first eight home games, while the Trail Blazers were 2-6 away from the Rose
Garden heading into December. UTAH 114-98.
San Antonio over *Golden State by 5
After dropping their first six games, the Warriors have gotten hot capturing eight of
their last nine through November. However, they still ranked second-from-last in
defense allowing 107.9 points per game, while the Spurs ranked in the top five defensively.We prefer defense over offense. SAN ANTONIO 102-97
WINNING POINTS
COLLEGE HOOPS
Tuesday, December 11
Bradley over Wright State* by 7
Central Florida* over UL-Lafayette by 1
Southern Illinois* over St. Mary?s by 7
St. Mary?s won?t defend the Salukis as well as USC and Indiana did and the Gaels had way too many free throws in non-conference home wins vs. Oregon and Seton Hall to not be skeptical about. SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, 68-61.
Valparaiso* over Evansville by 5
WUNDERDOG COMP NHL PLAY
Game: Tampa Bay at Montreal (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Montreal -1.5 goals +190 (puckline)
Tampa Bay is 11-5 at home but just 2-12 on the road! While scoring 3.5 goals per game at home, they average just 2.4 on the road - a 1.1 goal difference. On defense, it gets worse. They give up just 2.3 goals per game at home but 4.1 per game on the road - a whopping 1.8 goals per game difference! Montreal is no defensive stalwart but it doesn't matter as the Lightning are 3-9 this year vs. defenses allowing 2.9+ goals per game. Montreal on the puckline here.
Fairway Jay
Utah/Portland Over 202
Utah has been ‘Jazz-ed’ the past three weeks, on an 8-0 ‘over’ the total run. Yet tonight’s total has dipped down to 202 with Portland’s leading scorer and rebounder LaMarcus Aldridge out for a week. Still, the Blazer’s are playing more efficient with Brandon Roy at the point, as he can both create shots for his teammates and score. Portland is just 1-9 on the road and defensively they ‘give it up’, with recent results showing 106, 105 and 100 points allowed to modest scoring teams. Utah remains one of the most efficient offensive teams in the NBA, but still allow a high opponent FG percentage. They remain on top of their division and return home following three straight road losses and on a 0-4 ATS run. Look for Boozer, Brewer, Kirilinko and Okur to get plenty of chances inside tonight as Deron Williams set the tone for the Jazz offense following his career high 41 points in recent defeat to Dallas. Play ‘over’ the total.
Larry Ness' Oddsmaker's Error-CBB (6-0 run since Nov 23!)
My Oddsmaker's Error is on Bradley at 7:00 ET. Wright St has played just five games this year and is coming off a HUGE 43-42 win over previously unbeaten Butler on Saturday. The win was very impressive, as the Bulldogs were pointing to their game with the Raiders, who had knocked them off twice last year (keeping the Bulldogs from the Horizon title). Wright St misses conference P-O-Y DeShaun Wood, who started all 119 games in his career and averaged 36 MPG last season. Two sophs man the backcourt TY, Brown (15.4-5.0) and Duggins (14.0-3.8), while the 6-6 Wilson (11.2-5.2) and the 6-8 Pleiman (6.4-5.8) are the best frontcourt players. Wright St really goes just six-deep and will have matchup problems with Bradley. Bradley was a Sweet 16 team two years ago and LY won 22 games. Ten players have appeared in all nine games this year and Bradley's perimeter game is superb. Seniors Ruffin (16.4-3.6-7.0) and Crouch (14.6-3.1-2.9) are joined by soph Warren (10.3), plus swingman Wilson (7.4-6.3) and the 6-7 Salley (5.4-5.0) round out the starting five. The 7-0 Collins ()7.1-4.4) gives Bradley height that Wright St can't match. Bradley is 6-3 but two of those losses have come vs No. 10 Michigan St (66-61) and unbeaten and 23rd-ranked Vandy. The other loss came in the Braves' first game, a trip to Illinois-Chicago where Bradley shot just 41 percent (8-of-28 on threes), while Illinois-Chicago shot 54 percent, including 9-of-13 behind the arc. Bradley CRUSHED Wright St last year 88-49 and with Wright coming off the Butler win, will win handily again tonight! Oddsmaker's Error on Bradley.
Larry Ness | NBA Sides
CHI -8.5
Analysis: Following a miserable start, the Bulls thought they were turning the corner with four wins in five games. Chicago ranked last in the NBA in scoring (86.5 PPG) and FG percentage (38.5) while losing 10 of its first 12 games. Over their next five contests, the Bulls began to look better, scoring 97.6 points and shooting 43.7 percent to go 4-1 in that stretch. However, their offensive struggles returned Saturday, as they shot 36.0 percent in a 92-81 loss to Boston. The Bulls have been held under 40.0 percent 11 times this season, matching their total from all of last season. The main culprits have been guards Gordon and Hinrich. After shooting a career-best 45.5 percent in 2006-07, Gordon's shot a career-worst 37.3 percent this season. Hinrich averaged a career-best 16.6 PPG last year (shot 44.8 percent) but is down to 10.3 PPG this year, while shooting 35 percent. Despite Saturday's loss, Chicago can be encouraged that it came against one of the league's best defensive teams. The Bulls' only two losses since returning from a 1-5 road trip have come against Boston (league-best 17-2 record) and Dallas, which led the NBA with 67 wins last season. Tonight's opponent is the Sonics, who are 6-15, including 2-8 on the road. This is the "right" team at the "right" time for the Bulls. Lay the points.
Lenny Del Genio | CBB Sides
free pick522 Southern Ill. -4.5 (-110) BetUS vs 521 St. Mary's (Cal.)
Analysis:
Play on Southern Illinois at 8:05 ET. We cant see the Salukis losing a fourth straight game when favored, even if it is against a 7-0 foe. That unbeaten opponent, St. Marys, is making its first road trip of the season and is running into a SIU team that will refocus on the defensive end and hand the Gaels their first loss of the season. For a team that finished 11th in the polls LY and is coming off six-straight 20+ win seasons, the Salukis are too good to let this one get away from them, especially considering their recent 80-4 SU home mark. Take Southern Illinois.
Rocketman 3* CBB
3* Southern Illinois Salukis -4.5
Southern Illinois is allowing only 60.5 points per game overall this year. Southern Illinois is 3-1 SU and ATS overall vs St Mary's since 1997. ST MARYS-CA is 17-32 ATS (-18.2 Units) after scoring 25 points or less in the first half last game since 1997. ST MARYS-CA is 16-30 ATS (-17.0 Units) after 2 straight games where they had 5 or less steals since 1997. S ILLINOIS is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) after having lost 3 of their last 4 games since 1997. We'll play Southern Illinois for 3 units tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky
Frank Rosenthal
NBA
503 WOLVES+9 SB
509 PISTONS-5 SB
UNDER 205 SB
514 JAZZ-13 SB+
Vegas Expert
Tom Freese
Game: Portland Trail Blazers at Utah Jazz Dec 11 2007 9:05PM
Prediction: Utah Jazz
Reason: Utah is 14-3-1 ATS their last 18 home games as favorites. The Jazz are 9-3 ATS their last 12 home games vs. Portland and they are 5-1 ATS as favorites of 11 or more points. The Trailblazers are 1-6 ATS with one day of rest and they are 1-7 ATS away vs. a team that has a better than .600 winning percentage at home. Play On UTAH
RF ( THE HULK)
3-Unit Play. Take #517 Bradley (-1.5) over Wright State (7 p.m., Tuesday, Dec. 11)
Weʼre catching Wright State in a letdown situation here after their big win over Butler on Saturday. The Raiders have been less than impressive to this point of the season as they still adjust to the loss of Deshaun Wood to graduation. Bradley has already scored road wins at Loyola-Chicago and they beat Wright State by 39 points at home last year.
1.5-Unit Play. Take First Half: #524 Valparaiso (-7) over Evansville (8 p.m., Tuesday, Dec. 12)
Valpo has been red hot lately and they should exact revenge over an Evansville squad that beat them just last year. The Crusaders have gotten off to hot starts recently, covering their last four halftime lines by taking leads of eight, four, 13 and 14 into the break. The Aces have been spotty on the road, and are just 1-2 versus the halftime line on the road. I think that this one is a blowout and I think that Valpo dominates from start to finish. But our money goes on a hot start for the home team.
1-Unit Play. Take First Half: #520 Central Florida (-7) over Louisiana-Lafayette (7 p.m., Tuesday, Dec. 11)
Lafayette isnʼt very good to begin with. But when you mix in an 11-day layoff and an opponent that has played five of its last six games against teams in the RPI 100 and I think you have the makings of a blowout here. The Cajuns donʼt have the athletes to keep up with the Knights in this one and I see it getting out of hand in a hurry. UCF has won its four home games by an average of 13.8 points and are 10-2 ATS after a loss.