Bob Akmens
North Carolina -8.5
This play is the result of a successful computer model that has allowed Bob Akmens Sports to finish in first-place in 152 different categories of documented monitored handicapping contests since 1978.
The computer models I’ve developed for each sport look at the most-predictive variables that go into the winning and losing of games.
Several interesting factors in today’s play are as follows -
The NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS cover the spread when:
They just show up, folks: 16-5 ATS last 21
They show up on the road: 6-2 ATS last 8; 19-9 ATS last 28
They allow 80 or more points in their last game: 5-1 ATS last 6
They score 80 or more points in their last game: 12-4 last 16; 37-18 last 55
The VIRGINIA CAVALIERS fail to cover the spread when:
They’re a dog: 2-6 ATS last 8
They play an ACC Conference opponent: 2-7 ATS last 9
They play after they played a conference opponent: 2-6 ATS last 8
They play after a loss to a conference rival: 1-6 ATS last 7
They allow 80 or more points: 0-6 ATS last 6; 5-10 last 15
GO WITH NORTH CAROLINA -8.5 IN THIS 800PM EST MATCHUP.
LT Profits
Michigan State @ Purdue u132.0
The Michigan State Spartans and Purdue Boilermakers are both playing good defense this season, so we look for a low-scoring struggle tonight in this big game for both teams.
Purdue has been a major surprise at 19-5, and the Boilermakers are one of the hottest teams in the nation, as they have now won nine consecutive games after a huge win at Wisconsin Saturday. They are allowing just 60.0 points per game during this winnings streak, lowering they average for the entire season to 61.0 points allowed per game. Furthermore, they are allowing just 58.4 points per contest here at home.
The Spartans are no strangers to defense either, as they are allowing 62.4 points per game on a miniscule 39.0 percent shooting from the floor. Outside of one breakdown vs. Penn State, Michigan State has allowed 62 points or less in four of their last five games.
Finally, the last two head-to-head meetings here in Purdue have produced just a combined 100 and 125 points respectively, and we see this game not eclipsing 125 either.
CBB Free Pick: Michigan State, Purdue Under 132
Calgary Flames @ San Jose Sharks u5.0
Both the San Jose Sharks and the Calgary Flames have clamped down defensively as of late, so look for little scoring when these teams meet tonight.
This is the fifth game of a six-game homestand for the Sharks, and their defense has certainly enjoyed the comforts of home. San Jose has allowed a total of nine goals in the first four games of the homestand, and they have now allowed three goals or less in seven of their last eight games overall, including allowed two or less on five of those occasions.
The Flames are coming off of a 4-1 win over Edmonton, their third straight game allowing three goals or less. They know that they need to continue to make a concerted effort defensively here, as they open a five-game road trip that could very well make or break their playoff chances. Goaltender Miikka Kiprusoff has had a disappointing season, but he did look sharp against Edmonton and he is very capable of keeping this game Under by himself when he is in top form.
Now five may be a low total, but we do not expect worse than a push here, and the positive odds attached to this total makes this wager worthwhile.
NHL Free Pick: Flames, Sharks Under 5
Mike Rose
New Orleans Hornets -5.5
The Southwest Division leading New Orleans Hornets and their (34-15) record invades the United Center to take on the (20-30) Chicago Bulls. The Hornets half been one of the Western Conferences biggest surprises this season, and a huge ATS moneymaker cashing in 30 of their 49 contests to date. They’re 17-7 SU on the road and a decent 14-11 ATS when playing the role of visitor. As for the Bulls, they’ve been an absolute mess that hasn’t seen them come close to the success that was expected of them at the beginning of the season. They sport a 10-13 SU mark at home, and a very poor 8-15 mark ATS.
New Orleans was last in action Saturday night when they knocked off division rival Memphis 112-99. They failed to cover the 14-point spread by a bucket but the 211 combined points saw the Over cash with ease. Since winning five in a row against Milwaukee, Portland, LA Clippers, San Antonio, and Denver, the Hornets are just 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS. However, they’ve managed wins in their L/2 games and only have games scheduled tonight against the Bulls and tomorrow night against Milwaukee before the All Star break.
Chicago just wrapped up a 6-game western Conference road trip that saw them go 2-4 SU but a solid 5-1 ATS. The five wins in six games is the Bulls best ATS streak of the season, which could be an indicator of better things to come now and after the break. They have tonight’s game against the Hornets and Thursday night’s game also at home against Miami to not make that last statement look foolish.
This will be the first meeting of the year for both of these clubs. The Bulls took both meetings a season ago by earning a 111-108 decision in N’awlens pushing as 3-point road favorites, and at home, 104-93 as 6-point home chalks. The Bulls have taken 6 of their L/10 overall encounters both SU and ATS.
New Orleans is a combined 26-11 ATS (70%) on the road against sub .500 Eastern Conference opponents, while the Bulls are a combined 15-30 ATS (33%) at home against +.500 Western Conference opponents. The favorite has covered the spread in 4 of the L/6 meetings, but Chicago owns a 5-2-1 ATS mark against NO in their L/8 meetings. This has been a high scoring series of late as well with the Over cashing in two straight meetings, and in 8 of their L/10 overall meetings.
Scott Rickenbach
Free Pick on Orlando Magic (-) vs Cleveland
Short and sweet here on Monday as we look to maintain the long term winning streak on free winners. Solid runs going in all sports right now and more profits are on the way tonight. As for the Free Pick, there is no need to get wordy here. The fact is that the Cavaliers are a mess right now. They are a team ravaged with injuries at the present time. Two more guys left the game early last night as the Cavs injury woes continue. To get crushed by 30 points on your home floor is an extreme embarrassment and that's what happened to the Cavaliers yesterday versus Denver.
Taking to the road is not the solution when a team is struggling and this second night of a back-to-back situation is going to test the Cavs in more ways than one! Simply put, LeBron James is being asked to do way too much and he will not be able to carry the Cavs alone against one of the top teams in the East. The Magic will not be short on motivation since LeBron is in town. In particular, we look for a huge game from Dwight Howard and we look for the Magic to take advantage of all the missing and damaged "parts" of Cleveland tonight. Play Orlando minus the points as a regular selection.
Drew Gordon
1. 200,000* Pennsylvania
2. 50,000* Purdue
3. 50,000* Heat
1. Pennsylvania- While we no longer talk about these two teams in the upper-echelon of the Ivy League, that doesn't mean there isn't value to be had in this match up. In fact, despite their questionable record, you've got to love the Quakers tonight at home, and here's why:
First, make no mistake, the Tigers are pathetic on the road, going winless 0-8 SU in true road games & 0-3 in neutral court match ups. Biggest issue is they leave their offense back at home when they travel, averaging a high school-like 49 ppg on 39% shooting away this season!
Defensively, their numbers are deceiving, because Princeton will slow the game down, making it appear like their 61 ppg allowed away is decent. But, when you consider its 12 points more than they score on the road AND the fact they allow their opponents to shoot 48%, you can see just how bad this Tigers team is on the highway.
We know the Quakers offense is relatively solid at home, averaging 69 ppg on 43% shooting, but critics will argue its their defense that we have to worry about. That's partly true, but in this case, I believe the Quakers will amp up the defensive intensity in this rivalry match up. Penn is also coming off consecutive road losses, so you know damn well they'll be looking to bounce back tonight at home.
Finally, while Penn is lead by their guards, which have a nice edge over Tigers backcourt. The emergence of of 6'9 F Andreas Shreiber in their last game at league-leading Cornell will be key to their victory here tonight. The Quakers have lacked production from their frontcourt, but in 36 minutes Saturday Schreiber dropped in 23 points and 9 rebounds! Coupled with the edge in the backcourt, if Shreiber (or Eggleston for that matter) can step up again, this game will be a cake walk for Penn. Quakers roll at home in this one!
Take Pennsylvania at home over Princeton as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Purdue- If odds makers want to make it a bargain for me to take the hottest team in the Big Ten, at home, with a slew of trends and motivational factors in their favor, that's fine by me! Make no mistake, this will be a competitive game, but in the end, the Boilermakers will grab the cash at Mackey Arena tonight.
How do they do it? The same way they've been doing it over their last 10 games, where they've gone a ridiculous 9-1 SUATS, with a strong and efficient 4-guard attack and defense. 3 of the 4 starting Purdue guards shoot over 42% from beyond the arc, while all 4 starting guards shoot over 41% from the floor... Making for a balanced attack, where one game Hummel might step up (21 points on 3 of 6 3-pointers against Wisconsin) and a couple games prior it was Moore (24 points 10 of 12 shooting at Illinois). Got to love that balance!
Defensively, both teams are excellent, which will ensure this game remains close. However, the one issue I do have with Michigan State is their offense can be inconsistent on the road, for example in ugly outright losses at Penn State and at Iowa. Granted, the Iowa game was disgusting, where the Spartans managed only 36 points, but we can all agree they're a better team now.
However, their most recent road loss at Penn State is absolutely unacceptable. The Spartans got throughouly exposed in that match up, as a great home team, that still hasn't learned how to win on the Big Ten trail. Note that Michigan State is just 3-9 ATS over their last 12 games in conference, and it won't get any easier at the surging Boilermakers' house tonight.
Finally, when I told you the Boilermakers were 9-1 over their last 10 games, did you wonder who the last team to beat them SU was? Yup, you guessed it, it was the Spartans. As if Purdue needed any more momentum/motivation for this match up... The Spartans are due some payback, and Purdue will be glad to provide it tonight at the Mackey Arena!
Take Purdue at home over Michigan State in this Big Ten showdown.
3. Heat- Odds makers are still trying to get a handle on this "new-look" Heat team, and while tonight's match up may look like a mismatch on paper, I'm not convinced a road-weary Nuggets will be able to cover in this contest.
Denver is 10-13 SU & 11-12 ATS on the highway this season. True, they just crushed the Cavaliers in Cleveland Sunday, but doing it again tonight won't be nearly as easy. The Nuggets defense on the road is terrible, allowing a mind-boggling 107 ppg on 46% shooting this season. While the Cavs weren't able to capitalize against Denver's defensive deficiencies, I believe this new-look Heat team can.
Its no secret that coach Riley will be using this final half of the season to audition the Shawn Marion and Wade duo. All reports point to a more up-tempo style of basketball, with Wade and Marion leading the way, and Jason Williams getting back to his run-and-gun days at the point. I'm not saying we're going to see some kind of resurgence from the Heat, but in this case, against a weak Denver road defense, Miami can run with the Nuggets in this one.
Also, consider the fact the Nuggets have a much more qualified opponent on deck tomorrow with Dwight Howard and the Magic waiting in the wings. Do you really believe this inconsistent Nuggets squad is going to put together back-to-back "max-efforts" on the road? Especially with the Magic on deck? More likely than not the Nuggets come out a little flat, taking this game against the 9-41 Heat way too lightly.
Bottom line, trust me, I know its hard to back a Heat team that has done nothing but lose. However, with a "new-look" comes new energy, and a new style of play, which could prove very profitable against teams like Denver, that play absolutely zero defense on the road. Miami might not win SU, but they'll keep this one within the number tonight at home.
Take the Heat plus the points over the Nuggets in this NBA match up.
Winning Points Online NCAAB.
PREFERRED
Princeton over Penn* by 7
Let's take this opportunity to utilize the wonders of modern technology and reverse a weirdo margin in the main paper that would suggest Penn is 9 points better than anybody, let alone their Ivy League archrival.
Princeton started to stink first, beginning two years ago,and now they are on the way up, with a more veteran team and a healthier leading scorer -- Kyle Koncz -- than they had a year ago. Actually, Koncz is no longer the leading scorer. Two guys have vaulted over him into double-digits. Princeton actually had zero (0), none,nary an individual, not a one, nobody in double-digits per game a year ago. The players also like the new head coach much better -- they couldn't stand the other one who they chased away all the way to Denver University. Penn is in the early stages of learning to live with stinking, with a second-season head coach in the first season after key seniors recruited by the prior regime left.
Penn couldn't hit water from the back of a clam boat. They are shooting about 28% on three-pointers for the season, and their leading scorer -- freshman Tyler Bernardini -- has missed the last two games.He might return tonight. That's just fine. If anyone out there is fearing the return of a 13 ppg freshmen playing against Princeton for the first time in his life, it ain't gonna be us doing the fearing. Penn's poor shooting gives them an opportunity to fall behind. Princeton's clock-bleeding pace (58 possessions) will be jarring to Penn's kids that have been going at 70.1 possessions per game this season, making a comeback attempt a real pain in the neck. PRINCETON, 56-49.
Brandon Lang
10 Dime - Purdue
5 Dime - Western Michigan
5 Dime - Bradley
Free Pick - Vanderbilt
Scott Delaney
30* Pistons
10* Mich St.
Keith Martin Sports
Minnesota -4.5
Butler Over 127
Philadelphia Flyers -118
Frank Rosenthal
NBA HOOPS
702 HAWKS+6
706 HEAT+6.5
UNDER 209.5
713 MICHIGAN ST+2.5
OVER 130.5
728 SETON HALL OVER 151
732 VIRGINIA+9
OVER 157
734 DEPAUL+7.5
735 KY+4.5
UNDER 143
VEGASEXPERTS TIP OF THE DAY
Detroit Pistons at Atlanta Hawks
It's now or never for the Hawks who have lost the first three meetings to the Pistons this year. Home loss came by 11 points but before that Atlanta had won and covered two-of-three in the host role. Detroit hammered woeful Charlotte at home Sunday so steps up in class and goes out on the road here. Atlanta comes home after a Saturday night loss at red-hot Houston. It is 16-10 at home and 15-11 ATS.
Play on: Atlanta
Michael Cannon
10 Dime –
PITT
Take the Panthers minus the points tonight at home over Providence.
Pitt just barely got by West Virginia last Thursday when Ronald Ramon nailed a 3-pointer at the buzzer to give the Panthers a 55-54 win.
Pitt played sloppy in that game and was never able to get into an offensive rhythm, despite holding West Virginia scoreless for long stretches.
I like the Panthers chances of bouncing back offensively, particularly Sam Young and DeJuan Blair, who both struggled against Wvu.
Providence has been having problems defensively, as they are allowing 74.3 points per game on 45 percent shooting over their last six contests.
The Friars do boast a balanced offense, but Pitt is more than capable of shutting them down, so that shouldn’t be a concern here.
Pitt should have a little extra bounce in its step tonight, as starting point guard Levance Fields has been practicing with the team and is getting ready for his return to the lineup. Couple that with the emotional lift from Ramon’s game-winner over rival Wvu and it has all the makings of a Panther blowout tonight.
Take Pitt as the home chalk as they deliver the win and cover.
5 Dime –
MARQUETTE
Take Marquette as the small road chalk tonight over Seton Hall.
This is an important stretch for Marquette if they consider themselves one of the better teams in the Big East. After tonight’s game they have a home date with Pitt, and if they can deliver a 2-0 finish they will have proven they are still capable of beating teams ahead of them in the conference standings.
The Pirates will be without senior guard Paul Gause, who is out for the remainder of the season with a knee injury.
This should help Marquette, as they figure to have an advantage with an up tempo style of play.
Take Marquette as the small road chalk as they grab the win and cover.
DEPAUL
Take the points with DePaul tonight when they host Louisville.
This is a prime letdown spot for the Cardinals. They’re coming off consecutive wins over ranked opponents, including Saturday’s win over Georgetown.
Now they hit the road to face lowly DePaul, who currently sits 10th in the 16-team Big East.
DePaul coach Jerry Wainwright is a good X’s and O’s guy who thrives in the underdog role.
Take the points with DePaul tonight as they battle an unmotivated Cardinals team and stay within the number.
Gator's NBA/CBB 70% Report
CBB
Tuesday: Play On CBB favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after going under the total by more than 18 points in two consecutive games, with a winning record on the season. 59-24 ATS the last 5 seasons (71.1%) PLAY: Western Michigan -4.5
Gina
Denver Nuggets (31-19) at Miami Heat (9-40)
Denver Nuggets have won five straight and six of the last seven against the sorry Miami Heat. Go with the Nuggets to crush the Heat. Denver is 5-1 both straight-up and against the spread in its last 6 games and has won the last two games in South Beach.
Miami has dropped 11 of it’s their last 12 games at home, going 2-10 ATS.
Denver Nuggets
Today's Pick
7:00 p.m. Boston (39-9) at Indiana (21-30) Boston Celtics - 4½
7:30 p.m. Denver (31-19) at Miami (9-40) Denver Nuggets - 6½
Zen Gambler
NBA Monster Lock 4000*
Sacramento Kings @ Memphis Grizzlies over 211.0
NBA Monster Lock 2000*
Denver Nuggets @ Miami Heat over 209.0
Other Plays:
New Jersey Nets -6.5
Boston Celtics @ Indiana Pacers over 203.5
Atlanta Hawks +5.0
New Orleans Hornets -5.5
BEN BURNS
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
VIRGINIA
Game: North Carolina vs. Virginia Game Time: 2/12/2008 8:00:00 PM Prediction: Virginia Reason: I'm taking the points with VIRGINIA. The Cavaliers have been struggling, having lost six straight games and sitting in last place in the conference. They haven't lost seven in a row since 2002-03 though and they haven'e started off 1-9 in ACC play since 1976-77. Playing on ESPN with the support of the home crowd behind them, I expect a highly motivated performance from the Cavs this evening, as they attempt to avoid both those dubious distinctions. Recent losses notwithstanding, note that the Cavs remain a healthy 34-18 SU the past decade after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games. Virginia has enjoyed success at home in this series. In fact, they've gone 6-1 the last seven times they hosted the Tar Heels. They catch the Tar Heels in a tough spot as they come off a hard-fought come-from-behind victory vs. Clemson on Sunday. Not only did that game go to overtime but it cost them Marcus Ginyard, who sprained an ankle. That wouldn't normally be much of an issue. However, backup Bobby Frasor is already out for the season after suffering a knee injury in December. Worse, starter Ty Lawson, who leads the team with 5.7 assists (13.7 points) and runs the offense, is likely still out and senior Quentin Thomas played a career-high 46 minutes against the Tigers. That's a lot to deal with off an emotional OT win with a short turn-around between games. All things considered, I feel we're getting excellent value with the home underdog Cavaliers and I look for them to improve to 4-0 ATS the last four times they were listed as home underdogs in the +6.5 to +9 range. *Main Event
NBA BASKETBALL
ATLANTA
Game: Detroit Pistons vs. Atlanta Hawks Game Time: 2/12/2008 7:05:00 PM Prediction: Atlanta Hawks Reason: I'm taking the points with ATLANTA. The Hawks have struggled on the road and come off a blowout loss at Houston. However, they've been highly competitive at home. In fact, if we look at their last nine games here we find that they've won six of them, including victories over the likes of the Lakers, Cavs, Nuggets and Bulls. Additionally, all three of the losses came by five points or less. The Hawks, 4-2 SU/ATS the last six times that they were listed as home underdogs in the +3.5 to +6 range, have fared well against top tier defensive teams over the last couple of years, going 10-6 ATS the last 16 times that they faced a team which allows 91 points or less per game. That includes a 6-1 ATS mark the last seven times that they faced a team allowing 91 points or less during the second half of the season. Although they covered in their last game, the Pistons are still just 6-11 ATS their last 17 games. The Pistons, who have a divisional game vs. the Pacers on deck tomorrow, are also 0-3 ATS the last three times that they played the front end of back to back games. Playing with "triple-revenge" from a trio of earlier losses, look for the Hawks to continue their inspired play on this court, improving to 7-3 ATS the last 10 games in this series. *Eastern Conf. GOW
Johnny Guild
Butler Bulldogs -6
Minnesota Golden Gophers -4.5
Air Force Falcons + 13.5
Mr.A's
Detroit Pistons - 5
New Jersey Nets - 6
Cash & Profit Experts
Cbb
Minnesota -4.5 - POD
W. Michigan -4.5 -- COMP
Wolkosky Milan
10* DETROIT -4½
10* DET/ATL OVER 182
10* BOS/IND UNDER 205
10* NOH/CHI UNDER 193
LVTR
Play: MINNESOTA -4.5
We feel like we found a diamond in the rough here as Minnesota has quitely been racking up wins and ATS wins at that. Illinois has only shined against the cellar dwellers of the conference. When faced with quality competition, they have failed miserably. Illinois is 0-6 ATS as a road dog of 6 points or less while Minnesota has produced profits going 7-1 ATS as a favorite taking home wins with 19,14, and 13 point wins.
ATS LOCK
4 Boston -4 1/2
4 Detroit -4 1/2
Brandon Lovell
10* Butler -6.5
10* Bradley -2
5* Michigan St +1
ATS FINANCIAL
3 Louisville -7
3 Denver -6 1/2
Jim Kruger Cbb/nba
3* Hawks + 5
3* Minn -4.5
EZ Winners
3 STAR: (720) INDIANA STATE (+1.5) over Bradley
(Risking $330 to win $300)
1 STAR: (710) MEMPHIS (+5.5) over Sacramento
(Risking $110 to win $100)