Jeffersonsports
PHOENIX -9.5
POINTWISE
NORTHWESTERN RATING: 3
Cappers Access
Virg Tech
Vandy
Scott Spreitzer
South Flor
Joe Wiz
Northern Ill
Redzone Sports
Heat
S.Ill-Bradley Under
Bob Donahue
Lakers
ARTHUR RALPH
UNLV
MIGHTY QUINN
Wichita State
PHILLY CONNECTION
Miami+2
NATIONAL SPORTS SERVICE
TENN -2
BURNS
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
MISSOURI STATE
Game: Drake vs. Missouri St.
Prediction: Missouri St. Reason: I'm taking the points with MISSOURI STATE. Its been an impressive season for the over-achieving Drake Bulldogs. This figures to be an extremely difficult spot though as Drake has already clinched its first regular-season Missouri Valley Conference title in 37 years and is coming off a road win over a top 10 opponent. In other words, the Bulldogs have all but locked up their first trip to the "Big Dance" since 1971. Therefore, it would get pretty easy to have a letdown off the big road win and/or get caught looking ahead to "more important" games. Regardless of the Bulldogs' mindset, winning at Missouri State is no easy task. In fact, the Bulldogs have lost six straight here and are an ugly 1-15 all-time. Drake beat the Bears 65-54 on Jan. 12 in Des Moines. However, that game was closer than the score indicates, as the teams were tied with four minutes remaining. Missouri State may be near the bottom of the MVC, but it has been tough to beat at home, going 13-2. The Bears have won their last three games in Springfield by an average of 23.0 points. This will be the Bears' first game against a ranked opponent of the entire season and I expect a highly inspired effort. Look for them to be the hungrier team, continuing their homecourt dominance in this series.
VANDERBILT
Game: Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt
PM Prediction: Vanderbilt Reason: I'm taking the points with VANDERBILT. I lost by going against Tennessee in the big win at Memphis. I think I was just a game too early though and I'm going to attempt to go against them again this evening. Talk about a "letdown" spot. Not only are the Vols finally in first place in the polls and coming off a huge win over a hated instate rival but that was their first win over a top-ranked opponent since 1969. Letdown or not, this is an extremely difficult venue to play at. In fact, the Commodores have won 17 straight home games and 30 of their last 31 here. To say that the Commodores will be extremely motivated is probably an understatment. Not only do they now get a crack at the #1 team in the country but they also will be attempting to avenge a 20-point blowout loss at Tennessee in January. The Commodores were also slight home underdogs when they hosted the Volunteers last season and they managed a narrow upset win. That dropped Tennessee to 0-2 SU/ATS the past three seasons as road favorites of -3 or less and brought Vanderbilt to 3-1 SU/ATS as home underdogs of +3 or less. Looking back further and we find the Commodores at a profitable 13-7 ATS the last 20 times they were home underdogs of three points or less, with all 13 of those "covers" resulting in outright victories. They've won three of the last four series meetings here and I expect them to score another 'upset' this evening.
SETON HALL
Game: Seton Hall vs. South Florida
Prediction: Seton Hall Reason: I'm taking the points with SETON HALL. Recent results have given us solid value with the visitors here. The Bulls have come off three straight pointspread victories, while the Pirates have failed to cover in three straight. A closer look shows some similarities though. Both teams were just 1-2 SU over those games and both teams are coming off an extremely close game. Seton Hall knocked off Depaul by two points while South Florida lost by one at Cincinnati. That was the second straight 1-point game which the Bulls have played (fifth straight decided by 11 or less) and I won't be surprised to see their tendency to play close games continue this evening. Seton Hall already beat South Florida by 10 earlier this season and they also won here last February. In fact, they're 4-0 SU/ATS the last four meetings. Making it to the Big Dance is pretty unlikely. However, at 16-11, if they can sweep their final four games, they still have an outside shot. That's not quite as unbelievable as it sounds as three of those games come against weak teams (South Florida, St. John's and Rutgers) and the only "good" team is Syracuse, with that game coming at Seton Hall. Again, sweeping those four games is probably unlikely. However, the possibility is there and that gives the Pirates a lot to play for. Look for a highly motivated effort as the Pirates build off the win over Depaul, continue their success in this series and improve to 18-12 ATS the last 30 times (lined games) they had failed to cover the spread in their previous three games.
NBA
MIAMI
Game: Sacramento Kings vs. Miami Heat
Prediction: Miami Heat Reason: I'm taking the points with MIAMI. While their record certainly doesn't show it, the Heat are a better team right now than they have been for quite some time. They came very close to snapping their losing skid last time out, eventually losing in overtime to Philadelphia. As Pat Riley noted: "We did everything we could to win except win..." Facing a team which they have dominated here, I expect them to "take the next step" and earn the first victory of the "post-Shaq" era. The Heat are 16-3 all-time against the Kings here at Miami, winning five games in a row against them there by an average of nearly 13 points. Overall, Miami has gone a perfect 8-0 ATS the last eight meetings and has won the last seven matchups outright, since losing at Sacramento on Jan. 13, 2004. The Kings haven't been playing well defensively lately, as they are allowing 111.3 points over the last three games, while allowing opponents to hit 47.7 percent (31-for-65) from 3-point range. For the season, the Kings are just 9-19 SU on the road, including a 0-1-1 ATS mark as road favorites of three points or less. Looking back further and we find them at just 2-10-2 ATS (4-10 SU) in that role the past three seasons. During the same stretch, the Heat have gone a healthy 9-5 SU/ATS when listed as home underdogs of three points or less. It's also worth noting that the Heat are 28-3 SU, going 21-8-2 ATS, the last 31 times that they played a home game with an over/under line ranging from 200 to 204.5. The Heat play three road games after this, including a rematch with Sacramento on Sunday, and it goes without saying that they'd love to snap their skid before leaving town. As Dwayne Wade said: "Nobody in this locker room is going to quit..." Look for a highly motivated effort and for the Heat to get it done. *Non-Conference GOW
MILWAUKEE
Game: Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks Reason: I'm taking the points with MILWAUKEE. I played on the Bucks in their first game back from the Break and they knocked off Detroit. At the time, I mentioned that they were healthier than they had been in the first half and that I expected them to start off the second half on a profitable run, at least at home. Following the upset over the Pistons, it wasn't a huge surprise that they were blown out at Detroit in the rematch. They didn't hang their heads though. Rather, they returned home and upset Denver in their most recent game. Michael Redd appears to finally be back to 100% health as he scored a season-high 41 points in the win over the Nuggets. He had this to say: "Major wins against quality teams, that's encouraging. We have to come out every game, from here on out, with an attitude." This game is arguably more important to Milwaukee. While the Cavs are battling for playoff seeding, currently 3.5 games out of the final spot, the Bucks are battling for their playoff lives. The Cavs were impressive on Sunday as their new players made their debut and the team won by 20 points. That was at home though and it also came against Memphis, the second worst team in the West and one with no shot at the playoffs. Conversely, today's game comes on the road and comes vs. a highly motivated divisional opponent, one which already played the Cavs extremely tough (Bucks were 2-0 ATS) in two games at Cleveland, winning one of those outright. Note that the Cavs are just 1-5 ATS this season when coming off a double-digit victory in their previous game. Its also worth noting that they've got a huge showdown with the Celtics on deck for tomorrow and that the Cavs are just 5-8 ATS on the season when playing the front end of back to back games. Additionally, they're still without Daniel Gibson and there's still likely to be an adjustment period to all the new faces in the lineup. Look for the Bucks to prove to be the hungrier team, continuing their recent strong play at home and improving to 9-3 ATS on the season after scoring 105 or more points in their previous game. *Best Bet
UNDER Lakers/Blazers
NHL
OTTAWA
Game: Ottawa Senators vs. Boston Bruins
Prediction: Ottawa Senators Reason: I'm playing on OTTAWA. We're getting an excellent price with the better team due to the fact that the Sens lost 5-0 at Toronto yesterday. The Sens are 13-7 the last 20 times they played the second of back to back games though and 21-13 the past three seasons after scoring one goal or less in their previous game. Additionally, the Sens will be out for "revenge" as the Bruins upset them at Ottawa a few weeks ago. Note that the Sens, who were listed at -200, outshot the Bruins by a 31-22 margin. Additionally, note that they had won four straight series meetings before that and that they've won their last four visits to Boston. This is the Bruins' first game back home off a successful 5-game road trip. That's often a difficult situation and I expect them to stumble against a fully focus and determined Ottawa club. *Eastern Conf. GOW
John Ryan
Game: Minnesota Wild at Washington Capitals
Prediction: Minnesota Wild
Reason: Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Minnesota ? Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 100-40 and has made 44.7 units in profits since 1996. Play on road favorites of -200 or less against the money line with an average goalie posting a save percentage of 89.5-91.5% versus a team w/ a poor goalie posting a save percentage of =45% with a defense of <=42% over the last 2 seasons; 9-2 ATS versus good defensive teams allowing a shooting percentage defense of <=42% this season. Take New Mexico.
Wolkosky Milan
10* SAC/MIA UNDER 203
10* ORL/NJN UNDER 203½
10* CLE/MIL UNDER 199
10* SEA/GSW UNDER 223
SportsKingz
RUTGERS +11 (5 UNITS)
UNLV -7.5 (5 UNITS)
Big Al
Missouri State
Vanderbilt
Priceless Picks
1 Unit on Northern Illinois +8
I like the Huskies in the home dog role catching nearly double digits. The public will be all over Western Michigan here as they overlook the fact that the Broncos are just 6-9 on the road this season. Northern Illinois is coming off a big momentum gaining win at Akron and has covered the spread in back-to-back games. The Huskies are a perfect 2-0 SU and ATS at home versus W. Mich. the past 3 seasons and 4-2 ATS in all meetings the past 3 seasons. NIU is 8-2 ATS after playing a road game this season and 9-2 ATS versus good defensive teams with a shooting pct defense of <=42% over the last 2 seasons. Western Michigan will get caught overlooking the Huskies tonight and Northern Illinois will give the Broncos a scare.
Wunderdog
New Jersey at Carolina
Pick: Carolina +105
New Jersey has dominated Carolina this season, outscoring them 15-3 in three games. This is Carolina's last chance at revenge and we like their chances as they are 6-1 this season revenging two straight losses by 2+ goals. The Hurricanes are riding a bit of momentum having won twostraight, scoring 11 goals in the process. They will need that kind of offense vs. a Devils team that is keeping all comers out of the net. But,this Carolina team can score (3.3 per game at home this season). If Carolina can get 3 goals, they likely win as New Jersey's offense is weak. Road teams having won five straight lose 60% of the time in that sixth game. Carolina is 20-2 the past three seasons at home off a home game in which both teams scored 3+ goals. This is a good spot for a motivated Hurricanes team.
Jeff Alexander Sports
1 Unit on Seattle/Golden State UNDER 223
Golden State has been an overs machine of late, but the Warriors come up against a team tonight that is every UNDER player's dream. The Sonics have gone UNDER in 6 of their last 7 games and 10 of their last 13. Oddsmakers have consistently been overvaluing the point production of a team which is averaging just 95 ppg on the road. All 3 games at Golden State has gobe UNDER the number the past 3 seasons. With Golden State playing without regular Andris Biedrins and with Stephen Jackson banged up and listed as day-to-day. The Warriors are not at full strength. With Golden State not quite as explosive tonight, we'll take the UNDER.
Locksmith Sports
1 Unit on Michigan -8.5
Coach Beilein finally has his guys playing. The Wolverines have won 4 of their last 5 games SU and 7 of 9 ATS. Northwestern has lost 7 in a row and 10 of its last 11. Michigan is a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS in all games in this series the past 3 seasons and 12-5 SU and ATS in all games since 1997. The Wolverines won the first meeting on the road by 10 points back in mid-January when they weren't playing the kind of ball they are now. Michigan is 17-4 ATS in home games after a win by 6 points or less since 1997. Beilein is 21-6 ATS after allowing 50 points or less in all games he has coached since 1997. Michigan's defense is performing very well right now and I expect them to really give the Wildcats fits tonight. Northwestern goes down to Michigan by double digits again.
Ferringo
Small card today. Not a ton of value in the air. No worries, we will be back at it with extreme prejudice on Wednesday and Thursday.
3-Unit Play. Take Bradley (-1.5) over Southern Illinois
The Braves are on fire and we should be catching SIU in a letdown spot after playing their best game of the year on Saturday against Nevada. SIU's guards won't be able to slow down Bradley's backcourt, and SIU has had struggles on the road this year in less-hostile environments than this
Larry Ness
Drake @ Missouri State
PICK: Missouri State
REASON FOR PICK: No. 20 Drake has already clinched its first regular-season Missouri Valley Conference title in 37 years and is coming off a road win over then-No.8 Butler on BracketBuster Saturday. It's the perfect spot here at Missouri St for the Bulldogs to "let down," except head coach Keno Davis has seemingly made his team immune from such happenings. In Drake's 71-64 victory at Butler, Josh Young (16.5) scored a career-high 25 points and hit three clinching free throws after being fouled on a desperation 3-point attempt with 20 seconds left in regulation and Drake leading by just two points. The Bulldogs have won their first regular-season conference title since 1971 and appear to have all but locked up their first NCAA tournament berth since that year. Houston (14.1-4.2) and Emmenecker (7.4-4.6-6.0) join Young as the mainstays in the backcourt, while the 6-8 Cox (11.6-8.4), the 6-5 Korver (9.3-3.8) and the 6-8 Heemskerk (5.5-3.3) are the team's best frontcourt players. While Drake, which was picked to finish ninth in the MVC, is enjoying a remarkable season, Davis wants his team to finish on a high note against eighth-place Missouri State (14-15 / 6-10) and last-place Wichita State. However, this is Missouri State's final home game and the Bulldogs will be trying to end a six-game losing streak at Missouri State, where they are just 1-15 all-time. The Bulldogs beat the Bears 65-54 on Jan 12 in Des Moines, scoring the game's final 11 points over the last four minutes. Young missed that game with a sprained ankle but Klayton Korver stepped up and scored a team-high 19 points on 5-of-8 shooting from 3-point range as Drake snapped a 10-game losing streak versus the Bears. Missouri State may be near the bottom of the MVC but it has been tough to beat at home, going 13-2. The Bears have won their last three games in Springfield by an average of 23.0 PPG. The Bears start the 6-9 Richards (6.7-4.0) at center, alongside of two excellent 6-5 forwards, Mitchell (14.1-6.1) and Lamberth (13.9-4.9). Spencer (7.8-3.3 APG) and Shane (6.4) Laurie plus Fuehrmeyer (7.2-3.9 APG) make up the backcourt. This will be the Bears' first game of the season against a ranked opponent and while I may be "tugging on Superman's cape" here, I'll take the small home dog.
Matty O'Shea
Vanderbilt +2
JWhip
Cavaliers/Bucks OVER 195.5
JB
Rockets -13
LT Profits
Boston College +5.5
Neither the Boston College Eagles nor the Virginia Tech Hokies are going to the NCAA Tournament this season unless they upset the apple cart in the ACC Tournament, but we do expect a tight battle here, giving the underdog Eagles value at this price.
Yes, Boston College has won just once in nine games, but at least the Eagles have been competitive while going 3-1 against the spread in the last three games, and their last two road efforts have been nice covers at Duke and Florida State. They should also be motivated by revenge here, as they lost 81-73 at home in overtime to the Hokies last month, so they would love to return the favor here in Blacksburg.
On the other hand, we feel that 16-11 Virginia Tech will have a difficult time getting excited about the Eagles, as they are coming off of an upset win at Maryland and a revenge win vs. Georgia Tech, and they have another revenge game vs. Wake Forest up next. Tonight seems like the dead spot in this stretch of games, especially since the Hokies beat BC earlier.
As a result, we see this game going down to the final buzzer with an outright upset not out of the question.
Boston College +5.5
Colorado Avalanche @ Calgary Flames Under 5.5 (-125)
The Under is now 20-10 in all Colorado Avalanche road games this season, as well as 17-12 in all Calgary Flames home games, so look for more of the same tonight.
The Avalanche have had major troubles finding the net lately, as they have now scored two goals or less in six of their last seven games, and they lit the lamp just three times in the other game. Furthermore, they scored one goal or less in four of those games. Things have gotten so desperate for Colorado that they resigned injury-prone 73-year-old Peter Forsberg yesterday, although his return to the ice will not be for at least a couple of games.
Now the Flames have been like night and day defensively home and away this season. While they have been prone to getting involved in shootouts on the road, they have been more like the Calgary of old on this rink, where they are allowing 2.52 goals per game. Most importantly, goaltender Miikka Kiprusoff is at peak form right now, as he has allowed just two goals on 102 shot over his last three starts!
In fact, the Flames as a team have allowed just four goals in four games, so look for another low-scoring affair tonight.
Avalanche/Flames Under 5.5 (-125)