Black Widow Sports
1* on Phoenix Suns -9.5
The Suns will bounce back from their terrible loss to the Detroit Pistons on Sunday. The Memphis Grizzlies look completely lost out there without Pau Gasol on the floor and Damon Stoudamire to lead the way at point guard. Getting back into the win column against the Grizzlies should be an easy task for the Suns as Memphis has lost five straight and 11 of its last 12. Memphis was trounced in Cleveland on Sunday, suffering a 109-89 setback for its third straight double-digit defeat. The Suns have won their last 5 meetings with Memphis, almost all in blowout fashion. Phoenix is 17-6 ATS in road games when playing 6 or less games in 14 days over the last 2 seasons. Memphis is 0-7 ATS in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season. Take Phoenix and lay the points.
Wunderdog
Cleveland at Milwaukee
Pick: Milwaukee +3.5
The Bucks have done nothing on the road, but they have flexed their muscles at home, especially against the good teams. The Bucks own an impressive 9-4 ATS mark at home vs the .500+ teams in the NBA. Two of the ATS losses have been by a single point. They have already claimed out-right wins at home vs Denver,Detroit,Washington,Orlando,Dallas,LA Lakers, and Toronto. The Cavs have already lost on the road to the Knicks,Atlanta,Seattle,New Jersey,and Charlotte, so this is far from a lay-up. When you consider they are playing at Boston within 24 hours of this game, it becomes more interesting, because you know that rests in the back of their minds, and this game, which looks easy, may not get their full attention.
InfoPlays
3* on Ohio State +8
Ohio State has to have a great game tonight against the Indiana Hoosiers if they are to make the NCAA Tournament. Head coach Thad Matta will have his troops ready to go tonight against a Hoosiers team that is still dealing with the resigning of coach Kelvin Sampson. Coaching doesn’t win ball games by any means, but the Hoosiers are definitely worse off without Sampson giving the guidance this young team needs. Ohio State is 13-2 ATS in road games versus good shooting teams - making >=45% of their shots after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. Ohio State lost to Indiana by 6 points earlier this season. The Buckeyes are 23-9 ATS revenging a home loss vs opponent since 1997. Indiana is 1-8 ATS in home games after playing 3 consecutive games as favorite over the last 3 seasons. Bet Ohio State on the road.
WUNDERDOG
Game: Orlando at New Jersey (7:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on First Half UNDER 100.5 -110 (risk 4 to win 3.6)
Magic games average 205.1 ppg but most of the scoring comes in the second half, especially of late. Over their last five games, 210.2 ppg have been scored, but just 98.4 in the first half. New Jersey games average just 90.5 ppg in the first half. So, 102.5 is too high, driven up by Orlando's full game averages. Combine this with the Nets' 41-14 UNDER mark in the first half in all games this season, and we have a strong play here on the first-half UNDER. In games with a total over 100, the Nets are 9-1 UNDER. And, when facing teams that average 103+ ppg, they are 12-1 UNDER in the first half! Orlando is 18-4 UNDER in the first half when playing a winning team this year. Everything here points to an UNDER in the first half and that's our play.
Game: Cleveland at Milwaukee (8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Milwaukee +3.5 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
The Bucks have done nothing on the road, but they have flexed their muscles at home, especially against the good teams. The Bucks own an impressive 9-4 ATS mark at home vs the .500+ teams in the NBA. Two of the ATS losses have been by a single point. They have already claimed out-right wins at home vs Denver,Detroit,Washington,Orlando,Dallas,LA Lakers, and Toronto. The Cavs have already lost on the road to the Knicks,Atlanta,Seattle,New Jersey,and Charlotte, so this is far from a lay-up. When you consider they are playing at Boston within 24 hours of this game, it becomes more interesting, because you know that rests in the back of their minds, and this game, which looks easy, may not get their full attention.
Game: Utah at Minnesota (8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Minnesota +7 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
The Timberwolves have played much better of late. A team that won just 5 of their first 34 games, has now won 5 of their last 14. What is more important, is they have become much more competitive as indicated by their 11-5 ATS mark over their last 16 games. This is a team that began the season by losing at home to teams with a winning record by 8+ in 11 of their 1st 12 games. They have now turned those numbers around, as they have lost by 7 or less in 5 of the last 8, in the same situation. The Jazz have been a very hot team, having gone 20-4 over their last 24 games, but the 4 losses have all been on the road, where they are just 12-17 on the season, and that is their ATS record as well on the road. They have been even worse as a road favorite where they are just 7-11 ATS on the season. They also have bigger battles on the horizon, as their next 2 are vs Detroit, and New Orleans. We like the improving Wolves to hang tough at home in this one.
NHL
Game: Minnesota at Washington (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 5.5 -120 (risk 3 to win 2.5)
Here we get two poor defenses and average offenses although neither offense is playing well right now. Washington has averaged just 2.1 goals per game over their last seven games while Minnesota has scored 3 total goals in their last three games. Washington is coming off a 1-goal performance last game and they are 12-4 UNDER the past three seasons at home in that situation. Under Jacques Lemaire, the Wild are 61-41 UNDER off a home loss. The way these offenses are going, we like the UNDER here.
Game: New Jersey at Carolina (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Carolina +105 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 3.2)
New Jersey has dominated Carolina this season, outscoring them 15-3 in three games. This is Carolina's last chance at revenge and we like their chances as they are 6-1 this season revenging two straight losses by 2+ goals. The Hurricanes are riding a bit of momentum having won two straight, scoring 11 goals in the process. They will need that kind of offense vs. a Devils team that is keeping all comers out of the net. But, this Carolina team can score (3.3 per game at home this season). If Carolina can get 3 goals, they likely win as New Jersey's offense is weak. Road teams having won five straight lose 60% of the time in that sixth game. Carolina is 20-2 the past three seasons at home off a home game in which both teams scored 3+ goals. This is a good spot for a motivated Hurricanes team.
Game: Ottawa at Boston (7:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Ottawa -120 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 2.5)
We faded Ottawa yesterday and they suffered a horrible 5-0 defeat to lowly Toronto. Now we will back them after that embarrassment. They will come out fired up here after that debacle and they are a good road team at 17-12, scoring 3.3 per game. Boston is a losing home team that averages just 2.4 goals per game at home. They have lost by an average of 0.6 goals per game to division foes, allowing 3.1 goals per game and amassing an 8-13 record. They are 28-41 the past three seasons at home vs. poor defensive teams that allow 2.9+ goals per game. Ottawa is a solid 15-6 on the road this season at -100 to -150.
Game: Colorado at Calgary (9:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Colorado +130 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 3.9)
Hope is back in Colorado. The Avs re-signed legend Peter Forsberg yesterday. Although he doesn't join the team on the ice until Saturday, his signing will provide an emotional lift to the team tonight. On top of that, there is more reason for confidence from the Avs. They finally have their top three weapons back from injury, playing together. Joe Sakcic, Ryan Smyth and Paul Stastny played together on Sunday for the first time since November. Colorado has an wining record as an underdog the past two seasons and they are 27-10 over that span coming off a road loss. We look for Colorado, with key players back and the emotional boost from one more coming, to take this game.
Game: Detroit at Edmonton (9:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 5.5 -140 (risk 3 to win 2.1)
Detroit's slide continues. After complete domination of all comers through February 5th, the Red Wings have lost eight of nine games. The good news is that their defense only slipped a bit. Over those nine losses, they have allowed 2.8 goals per game. It's their offense that has dissappeared. Over those nine games they managed to eclipse two goals just twice and are averaging just 1.7 goals per game. The Wings are 18-10 UNDER this season on the road while Edmonton is 17-11 UNDER at home. Edmonton's road offense is atrocious but at home it's very good (2.5 goals per game). So, we have two UNDER teams with very good defenses and one good offense that is slumping severly. The Red WIngs are 10-2 UNDER this season on the road vs teams that average 2.9+ goals per game allowed. They are also 11-4 UNDER on the road off an UNDER this season.
VEGAS RUNNER OFFICIAL "STEAM" TUES NBA
2* UNDER 198.5 CLEV /MIL
John Ryan
Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt
Pick: Vanderbilt
Ai Simulator 5* graded play on Vanderbilt – AiS shows an 85% probability that Vanderbilt will win this game. So, much for the number one ranking in the country when you have to play in the SEC. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 109-62 ATS since 2002. Play on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are off 3 straight wins against conference rivals and playing only their 2nd game in 8 days. UT is a very good team and deserving of the number one ranking in the nation. Yet, these strengths bring out the best in Vanderbilt. Note that Vanderbilt is 16-5 ATS in home games versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season since 1997; 31-13 ATS in home games versus good offensive teams scoring 77+ points/game since 1997; 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) as a home underdog or pick since 1997. Although the Memphis game started out with a blistering scoring pace both defenses took over the game and the UNDER was an easy money winner. This UNDER game puts UT into a very poor role. Note that UT is 2-11 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons. Vanderbilt also playing with significant revenge after an 80-60 blowout at UT on January 17th. Nothing could be better for Vanderbilt than to get the home win and knock UT out of the ranks of number 1. Take Vanderbilt.
Sports Monitor
MATCHUP: Sacramento Kings (26-29) at Miami Heat (9-45)
Miami is -1.5 and the total is 202 points
TRENDS: Miami is 18-36 against the spread this season. Miami hascovered ten of the last 11 in this series. Miami hascovered seven of their last 34 home games. The KIngs havecovered seven of the last 26 as the favorite.
GAME SUMMARY: The Heat, less than two years removed from winning their onlyNBA title, will try to extend that success in an effort to snap an 11-game skid. They have also dropped 26 of their last27 games, with the lone win coming against Indiana at home onJan. 26 to halt a 15-game slide, the second-longest in franchise history.
PREDICTION: Sacramento 104 Miami 98
Akmen NHL
3* Ottawa/Bost under 5.5
C&P Experts
VTech -5
Jared Klein
Dallas Stars -125
The Dallas Stars are not going to give up the Pacific Division lead without a fight. This is a team that has the ability to win at home where they are 20-12 but also on the road where they have posted a record of 19-15 so far this season. Dallas is also going into this game a little healthier as Defenseman Philippe Boucher was activated Monday by the Dallas Stars after missing 38 games following shoulder surgery. Boucher hasn't played since December 3rd. He has 11 points and 24 penalty minutes in 28 games. The Stars have won 11 of their last 13 games to pull within six points of Detroit for the most points in the league. “We are not staying back right now,” Stars captain Brenden Morrow was quoted as saying. “We are playing aggressively and dictating play, which are positive signs for this hockey club.” The Blues are headed in the opposite direction of the Stars. St. Louis has lost three straight and are clearly sellers heading into today’s trade deadline. Some of the Blues could very well be traded and not be with their lineup tonight making the Blues shorthanded against one of the best teams in the league. Look for the Stars to continue their torrid pace tonight in St. Louis with a win. Recommedation: Dallas
Paul Leiner
25* NBA Over 201.5 LAL/Port
25* CBB Over 131 Indiana/Ohio State
25* CBB South Florida -3.5
10* NBA Over 213 Phx/Mem
Free play 5* CBB Vanderbilt +2
John Martin
10* Missouri -5.5
5* SW Missouri St. +1.5
5* BYU +4.5
5* V Tech -5.5
Bob Balfe
NBA Basketball
Nets +5 over Magic
Bucks +4 over Cavs
College Basketball
Rutgers +10.5 over UConn
Savannah Sports
3 Units Indiana -8
2 units Orlando -4.5
2 Units Utah -7
1 unit UConn -9.5
Linecrusher
3*Sacramento -1.5 over Miami
At this price how can you not fade Miami who threw in the towel a long time ago. The Heat have lost 11 straight, are 1-26 their last 27 games, are 5-22 home, are 9-44 overall and have the worst record in the NBA.
4*Missouri -5.5 over Oklahoma State
Have to figure Oklahoma State will be at least somewhat flat if not totally flat coming off of Saturdays monster 61-60 home upset win vs then #5 ranked Kansas handing the Jayhawks just their 3rd loss of the season. Oklahoma State is just 2-10 straight-up on the road so far this season vs board teams while Missouri is 12-3 at home.
4*Vanderbilt +2 over Tennessee
Good spot for Vandy to be flat as a road favorite coming off of Saturdays huge 66-62 national TV win at Memphis handing the #1 ranked Tigers their first loss of the season and now it is the Vols who are ranked #1 and ripe for an upset loss themselves in this situation. You know Vandy wants this game being a national TV home underdog playing the nations #1 team with the added motivation of playing with revenge for a 20 point 60-80 loss at Tennessee January 20th not to mention the Commodores are a perfect 16-0 straight-up at home this season vs board teams. Upset
GOLD SHEET LATE TELEPHONE SERVICE
CBB
"UNDER" 130 points SOUTHERN ILLINOIS at BRADLEY
OKLAHOMA STATE +5.5 over MISSOURI
MICHIGAN -8.5 home over NORTHWESTERN
NBA
CLEVELAND -3.5 over MILWAUKEE
Malinsky
Evansville @ Wichita State
PICK: over
REASON FOR PICK: 3* EVANSVILLE/WICHITA STATE Over
A case could be made that the trophy for the ”Single Most Irrelevant Game of the Season” goes to this one, but because of that we believe that we have a strong advantage to work with. So let’s play.
These two teams are locked into the play-in game of the Missouri Valley Conference tournament at St. Louis next Thursday night, regardless of this outcome, or whatever either team does on Saturday in their final regular season game. So what does it mean? For Gregg Marshall and Marty Simmons it means a night to let the kinds go out and have some fun, and why not off of what have been a pair of disappointing campaigns? If either coach has a defensive scheme that he thinks can work well against this opponent we are not going to see it tonight; that will be kept in a drawer until next week. And with the oddsmakers forced to project such a low Total, we have plenty of room.
Here is what led to those projections – Wichita State playing a long time without offensive spark plug Matt Brauer, and Evansville also having a recent stretch without Jason Holsinger. The Shockers have played five games with Brauer back in the starting lineup and went Over the Total in regulation each time, by a combined 54.5 points, or nearly a full 11 per game. Note that we specify regulation because there were three overtimes in that span, but all three games had already eclipsed the projection in the first 40 minutes. That is not enough to make up for all of the earlier low scores in the Wichita data-base, and note that it is not only Brauer’s return on offense but also the fact that a depth-shy squad has worn down to the point at which they are offering little defensive resistance. In their last two games they have allowed Indiana State to score 60 points in 25 minutes after halftime, and Northern Arizona 48 in 20.
For Evansville the three Missouri Valley games without Holsinger produced Under’s by 12.5, 14 and 30.5 points, which carries a lot of line impact in the “math” circles, despite the fact that he is now back to full health (14 points in Saturday’s BracketBuster win at Eastern Illinois). He now combines with emerging freshman guard Kavon Lacey to provide an explosive back-court combination that can find plenty of room against this defense.
Look for these teams to play with a lot of abandon tonight, pushing the tempo and having fun against defenses that will not put up a whole lot of resistance. We will use a 3* Rating because of the problems with limits on non-televised games, but if you are able to play a full 4* at 120 or lower (and a 3* to 122) do so accordingly.