BEN BURNS
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
BUFFALO
Game: Bowling Green vs. Buffalo
Prediction: Buffalo Reason: I'm laying the points with BUFFALO. Its been a tough year for the Bulls as they enter tonight's game with an ugly 9-18 overall record. Things could have been a lot better though and the Bulls have been a lot more competitive than their record indicates. Of the their last 14 losses, 10 have been by 10 points or less and three were in overtime. In eight of their last 14 losses, the Bulls have held second-half leads. They also suffered back-to-back double-overtime losses to Western Michigan and Central Michigan. Though only 2-11 in the MAC, only two of their regulation losses have been by more than 10 points. Tonight represents a rare winnable game as Bowling Green is the only other team in the Mac East with a record which is below 500. Tonight's also an extra "special" game. Not only are the Bulls playing with "revenge" but this is their home finale, along with "Senior Day" for senior forward Andrew Atman. The final game comes at Ohio (18-10) making this by far their best chance at a victory over a Mac East opponent. I expect the Bulls, who beat the Falcons here by eight last season and 14 in 2006, to make the most of the opportunity. They catch the Falcons in a good "letdown" spot as they have a big showdown with Miami Ohio on deck and are coming off an upset over nationally ranked Kent State. Note that the Falcons are just 3-11 SU the past three seasons when coming off a win over a conference opponent while Buffalo is 7-4 ATS on the season when attempting to avenge an earlier road loss. I feel that this game will mean more to the Bulls and I expect them to be the "hungrier" team. Look for them to salvage some pride by closing out their home schedule with a win and cover, improving to 5-1 ATS the last six in this series. *MAC Conference GOM
OHIO STATE
Game: Purdue vs. Ohio State
Prediction: Ohio State Reason: I'm playing on OHIO STATE. The public has gotten pretty down on the Buckeyes, due to a recent tough stretch. However, a closer look shows that they've primarily won the games that they were "supposed to win" and that they've been highly competitive in the majority of the others. On 1/19, they went into Tennessee, one of the toughest venues in the country, and stayed within five points of the Volunteers. They followed that up by beating up on both Illinois and Minnesota at home and then doing the same to Penn State on the road. Back to back road games were too much and they lost by five at revenge-minded Iowa (they beat Iowa by more than 30 earlier) next time out. The Buckeyes bounced back to thump Michigan in their next game, before losing a close one vs. Indiana. Next, they won big at Northwestern. Once again, back to back road games proved to be too much for them, as they lost by 10 vs. revenge-minded Michigan. Next, they played both Wisconsin and Indiana (on the road) very tough, losing by three and five points. In their last game, again playing the second of back to back road games, they were beaten badly at revenge-minded Minnesota. The point that I am trying to make is that people have the perception that they the Buckeyes are playing poorly. However, the only times that they've truly played poorly in all of 2008 have come when they've been playing the second of back to back road games, all of which happened to come against teams which were playing with "revenge" from a previous loss. They're obviously not in that situation here. Rather, they find themselves as the team playing with "revenge" and as slight home favorites, a role in which they have excelled. Indeed, the Buckeyes are 10-4 SU/ATS the last 14 times that they were listed as home favorites of three points or less. During the same stretch, the Boilermakers were just 3-12 SU/ATS when listed as road underdogs of three points or less. They've also lost seven straight games here and are just 3-15 ATS the last 18 in this series. Look for the Buckeyes to salvage some pride as they avenge the earlier loss and continue their homecourt domination in this series. *Annihilator
NBA
SACRAMENTO
Game: Los Angeles Lakers vs. Sacramento Kings
Prediction: Sacramento Kings Reason: I'm taking the points with SACRAMENTO. The Lakers have finally cooled off a little, going 1-3 ATS their last four games, including an outright loss in their most recent road game. On the other hand, the Kings are going the other way as they snapped their 4-game losing skid with a momentum-building double-digit victory in their last game. I say "momentum-building" as they rallied all the way back from a 20 point halftime deficit. That's no real surprise though as the four losses all came on the road while the victory came here at Arco Arena, where they have been a much better team for years and where they are currently playing very well. Indeed, Sunday's win brought them to 8-1 (7-2 ATS) their last nine games here and 10-2 their last 12. Despite a slow start here this season (due to injuries) the Kings can still finish above 500 here for the season, which provides them with additional motivation. As coach Reggie Theus had to say: "It would be a significant goal of ours to reach that (winning record at home) and I think something that we can build on even for next year in terms of what was expected of us this year and where we're headed." The Kings lost the last time they hosted the Lakers. However, they're still 6-3 SU/ATS the last nine series meetings here with one of the losses coming by only four points. Its also worth noting that the Kings are a terrific 13-3 ATS the last 16 times they were underdogs of six points or less, winning 12 of those game outright. Conversely, the Lakers are 2-5 ATS the last seven times that they were favored by six points or less and they're just 5-11 ATS the last 16 times they were listed as road favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. Looking back further and we find them at a money-burning 41-61-2 ATS in that role the past decade. Kobe Bryant will get his points. However, he's not likely to get 50+ again as Ron Artest is a former NBA Defensive Player of the Year. Pau Gasol is going to get his too. Although all with the Grizzlies, its interesting to note that Gasol is 0-10 lifetime here. Knowing that they'll be facing the Lakers at LA in less than a week, and three more times to close out the season, look for the Kings to continue their excellent recent homecourt play tonight. *Pacific Division GOM
Gold Medal Club 18 Karat
Detroit @ Wright State
PLAY ON DETROIT +
WE note Wright State is 0-8 ats at home after 2 conference games- and also a brutal 1-9 ats as home chalk- too many points here!
Gold Medal Club 18 Karat NHL Dog Winner
Chicago @ Minnesota
PLAY ON CHICAGO +
Great line value here as Chicago no longer resembles a M.A.S.H unit, Minnesota does not match up well with this young quick Hawk team and were blanked by the Hawks last time out Minnesota, now is facing some key injuries. Knowing Chicago is 14-7 after scoring 4 goals or more in there last game look for 3 goals to be enough to win this contest
WINNERS EDGE
NBA
Detroit Pistons - 15 , 2 units
LA Lakers - 5 , 2 units
Atlanta Hawks + 1 , 4 Units ( NBA game of week )
CBB
Arkansas +2 , 2 units
Nebraska + 13.5 , 1 unit
Al
At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies plus the points over Chicago.
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes over Purdue.
At 9 pm, on ESPN-U, our selection is on the Kansas State Wildcats minus the points over Colorado, as KSU falls into a super 49-17 ATS system of mine that plays against certain revenging road teams which are off a SU win, and matched up against a foe off back-to-back SU/ATS losses.
Locksmith Sports
1 Unit on Atlanta Hawks +1
We'll take the Hawks in the home dog role tonight. Atlanta has had Golden State's number, mainly because it has young and athletic athletes which can run up and down the floor with the Warriors. Atlanta just won by 7 points in late February at Golden State and we'll take the Hawks at home in a heartbeat. Atlanta is 4-1 SU and ATS in this series the past 3 seasons and a perfect 2-0 SU and ATS at home. Atlanta is a very good home team at 18-11 SU and 17-12 ATS. Golden State is 1-9 ATS after playing 3 consecutive games as favorite this season and 6-19 ATS after playing a game as a home favorite this season period. The Warriors are 9-20 ATS after having won 3 of their last 4 games this season and 4-16 ATS off a home win this season. It's always tough for a team to play across multiple time zones on the opposite coast. Take the Hawks here.
Wunderdog MLB
New York Mets at Florida
Pick: Florida +107
Runs have been hard to come by for the Mets so far this spring. They have scored just 16 times over six games, good for just 2.67 runs per game. Mark Hendrickson will square off against John Maine. The Marlins have scored no less than three runs in each of their seven games and are putting up 5.57 rpg, which should be enough to get the win today.
Jeff Alexander Sports
1 Unit on Texas -13.5
All I have to say is look out to Nebraska fans as the Longhorns will be out for revenge after going down to Texas Tech a few days ago. At 15-1 SU and 7-4 ATS in home line games, the Longhorns have been virtually unbeatable at home. Nebraska's road woes are well documented. The Huskers are just 3-7 SU and ATS on the road this season. Texas is 8-1 SU and ATS in its last 9 games. Nebraska is only 5-15 ATS in road lined games over the last 2 seasons. Texas is 10-1 ATS in home games after playing a game as favorite over the last 2 seasons. The Huskers do not have the guards to compete with Texas' monster backcourt. Take Texas.
Jeff Benton
The oddsmakers seem to have caught up with the Lakers, who have failed to cover the spread in three of their last four games after an astonishing 13-1 ATS roll. However, two of those non-covers came against the Blazers (a team L.A. has notoriously struggled against), and the other came in Sunday’s four-point overtime win over the Mavs as a 6½-point favorite.
Tonight, the Lakers face Sacramento for the first time this season, and while the Kings have been solid at home (18-10, including 10-2 in the last 12), I don’t see how they’re going to handle Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol, who have been playing out of their minds since becoming teammates, including combining for 69 points and 25 rebounds in Sunday’s win over Dallas. Also, Sacramento’s recent home success aside, they’re just 4-7 SU (4-6-1 ATS) in their last 11 overall, with the wins coming against the Heat (home), Bobcats (road), Hawks (home) and Blazers (road). Big whoop.
Finally, with a much less talented team, the Lakers took three of four from the Kings last year, going 2-0 in Sac-town. Also, they’re 4-1 SU and ATS in the last five meetings; the favorite is 14-5 ATS in the last 19 meetings; and the straight-up winner has cashed in each of the last 10 head-to-head battles. L.A. (7-1 SU and ATS in its last eight road games; 11-2 ATS in its last 13 on the road) rolls in this one.
(Based on a 1* to 10* rating system)
3* L.A. LAKERS
Matt Rivers
For Tuesday take the points with the Nets.
Yes the Nets are struggling and are pretty much a dead man walking right now after trading away Jason Kidd but at this price, with revenge, and while being still in the playoff picture makes me all about the points.
Yes San Antonio is once again possibly the best team in the game after winning their 9th straight game in New Jersey on Sunday but it's still a lot of points for Tim Duncan and company to lay in this spot. The Spurs are as good as they come but they are still a team that grinds it out and doesn't exactly run and gun in 25 point blowouts on a daily basis.
Vince Carter and Richard Jefferson are still guys that have an upside and if they have their juices flowing here against the defending champs can help New Jersey stay in this thing. In the end the Nets are probably overmatched but at this price with some factors going our way why not scoop up the extremely healthy number
LT Profits
Purdue @ Ohio State u125.5
The Big Ten Conference has become renowned for its low scoring games, and we expect more of the same tonight when the Purdue Boilermakers visit the Ohio State Buckeyes.
The Under is a lucrative 17-8, 64.0 percent in all Ohio State games this season, including 8-3 here at home. The Buckeyes have also gone Under in seven of their last nine games overall, with five of the Unders producing no more than 120 combined points scored and the other two landing on 122 and 124 points respectively, all less than this posted total.
Now Purdue is a balanced 13-13 overall this season in regards to totals, but they have historically player closer to the vest in conference play. In fact, the Under is now 40-19 in the Boilermakers’ last 59 Big Ten games, including their current 4-1 Under run.
Now granted, these teams went Over in a 75-68 Purdue win at West Lafayette in January, but these clubs have gone Under in the last three meetings here in Columbus, and we look for the Buckeyes to control the pace again tonight.
Pick: Purdue, Ohio State Under 125.5
Toronto Raptors +9.5
Now we realize that Chris Bosh is out for the Toronto Raptors tonight, but this line seems like an over-adjustment as they visit the Orlando Magic.
For starters, the Magic are one of just two teams in the NBA that actually have a better straight up record on the road (21-12) that they do at home (17-11). For those of you keeping score, the other team is the New Orleans Hornets. Furthermore, Orlando’s average winning margin at home has been +4.9 points, which is not nearly enough to cover this inflated number.
Besides, it is not as is Orlando is at full strength, as Jameer Nelson missed Saturday’s game vs. the New York Knicks with the flu, and it is uncertain if he will be able to play tonight. Regardless, it is the Raptors that have dominated this head-to-head series, going a fantastic 8-1 against the spread in the last nine meetings.
Now the Raptors may not win this game on the court, but we feel that they are more than capable of taking the Magic down to the wire, even without Bosh.
Pick: Raptors +9.5
Paul Stone
New Mexico -6.5
With such a "soft" bubble in this year's NCAA Basketball Tournament, I believe the Mountain West Conference has a solid shot at landing three teams in the "Big Dance."
BYU appears to be on firm ground, while tonight's combatants _ UNLV and New Mexico _ are "even money" in my opinion to BOTH make the tournament.
But we digress.
Looking at tonight's MWC showdown, I look for New Mexico to atone for an earlier season 19-point loss at UNLV.
The Lobos are always tough in Albuquerque as evidenced by this season's 13-3 ATS home record at "The Pit."
Straightup, New Mexico is 15-2 on its home floor.
Lay the 6 1/2 points and take New Mexico
Wunderdog
Akron at Ohio
Pick: Ohio -3.5
Akron comes in off a 20-point blowout win while Ohio is off a 24-point loss. If that were not enough to make Ohio the hungrier team here, the Bobcats are looking for revenge for a 1-point loss to Akron in January.We expect a top effort here from Ohio. This team has been unbeatable at home this season (11-0), winning by 12 ppg on average. Their defense is awesome as they have held opponents to 60.5 ppg here this season and their average in 14 conference games has been 58.1 ppg on 40.8% shooting! The Bobcats are riding a 39-16 ATS streak at home over winning teams and a 87-62 ATS run as a favorite. This season they are 8-2 ATS at home. They are also 11-2 ATS the past two seasons revenging a loss.
Priceless Picks
1 Unit on Sacramento +5
I like the Kings catching a nice amount of points at home here. The Lakers are 2-12 ATS in March games over the last 2 seasons and 7-24 ATS after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. The Kings are quietly 18-10 at home and 17-11 ATS in those games. Sac is 8-0 ATS after having lost 4 of their last 5 games this season and 12-2 ATS after having lost 3 of their last 4 games this season. The Kings are also 18-8 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. Sacramento is never an easy place for opponents to play especially with the way Artest and Martin have been causing matchup problems. Take the points.
Dave Malinsky comp 4* play
GAME: Seattle SuperSonics @ Detroit Pistons
4* SEATTLE/DETROIT Under
Over the last two months of the NBA season the MTG, or “Manage The Game” settings, are going to be a big part of our portfolio. And the best part is that the fundamental logic behind the plays is such that the edges will never go away. It all has to do with a control element in a game – the bigger the gap the more control the favorite has, which means that the notions of merely winning and moving on are firmly within their grasp. Tonight we have about as good of a setting as the concept can bring.
Because of all of the veterans on hand, Detroit understands the notion of pacing through the regular season as well as any team. And with a major showdown at Boston tomorrow, one that can get the Pistons back in the hunt for the Eastern Conference home court advantage, this is a night to do little more than is necessary. That means no pushing of the tempo, and also no going out of the way to get any kind of margin. And the evidence is pretty clear as to how Flip Saunders & Co. will handle it – they are 6-3 to the Under when laying double figures at home this season, and 10-5 in the category the past two campaigns. And let’s note that we can put an * next to one of those settings – shortly after the All Star break they had a home revenge game vs. Milwaukee in which the opposite logic applied; they were out to get a kill, and got one in a 127-100 rout. Naturally, that one went Over. But now it is back to a more normal flow for the setting.
The flip side here is that P. J. Carlesimo is trying to build the pieces with a young Seattle team, and is tightening up the playing rotation to improve the defense. The Sonics have been road underdogs five times since February 1st and not only went 4-1 to the Under in that span, but those five games finished a collective 52.5 points below the projections, for 10.5 per game. He certainly does not want to be forcing any tempo here against the superior team, and with both sides looking for a moderate pace we have outstanding value at this price.
Strike Point Sports Picks For College Basketball
3-Unit Play. Take Miami (OH)/Kent State Over 124.5
2-Unit Play. #527 Take Western Michigan -3 over Central Michigan
3-Unit Play. #563 Take Purdue +2 over Ohio State
2-Unit Play. Take Nebraska/Texas Over 129.5