Ben Burns
Seattle Supersonics vs. Indiana Pacers
Play: Indiana Pacers
This line has come down slightly from its opening number, providing us with solid value on the home favorite. It's true that the Pacers haven't won too often lately. However, they've also been playing some top tier teams, most recently on the road vs. the likes of Cleveland, San Antonio and Houston. Facing a Seattle team which is just 6-26 on the road should provide an excellent opportunity for them to break into the win column. Therefore, its worth noting that when the Pacers have won, they've mostly done so by a comfortable margin. In fact, their most recent three victories have all come by double-digits. Looking back further and we find that each of their last four wins have come by a minimum of eight points and that 15 of their last 17 victories have come by a minimum of six points. The Sonics have lost four straight and each of their last three losses came by a minimum of eight points. Looking back a bit further shows that seven of their last eight setbacks have come by a minimum of six points with those eight defeats coming by an average of greater than 14 points. The Sonics turned the ball over 22 times, leading to 30 points by the Raptors in their latest loss. That marked the fourth time in five games in which they have allowed a minimum of 20 turnovers. Look for that type of "sloppy" play to prove costly this evening, as the revenge-minded Pacers improve to 5-1 ATS after having played their previous three games on the road.
John Ryan
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Play: Portland Trail Blazers
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Portland – AiS shows a 73% probability that Portland will win this game by 3 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 48-19 ATS for 71% since 1996. Play against home teams that are terrible teams outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game and after a close win by 3 points or less. Portland is not a strong defensive team ranking 15th in forcing turnovers at 13.4 TOPG. Note that Minnesota is 9-19 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams that are forcing <=14 turnovers/game this season. Minnesota is also just 7-15 ATS versus teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game this season. Take Portland.
Rocketman Sports
Seattle Supersonics vs. Indiana Pacers
Play: Seattle Supersonics
Indiana is 12-26 ATS last 3 years against poor defensive teams allowing 99 points per game or more in the 2nd half of the season. Indiana is allowing 105.4 points per game overall this year and 104.8 points per game at home this season. Seattle is 4-1 SU overall vs Indiana last 3 years. Indiana will be without two of their best players in Jermaine O'Neal and Jamaal Tinsley. SuperSonics are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Tuesday games. SuperSonics are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. SuperSonics are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog. SuperSonics are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games. SuperSonics are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. SuperSonics are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 1 days rest. Pacers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Tuesday games. Underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on Seattle tonight!
BEN BURNS
NBA BASKETBALL
MINNESOTA
Game: Portland Trail Blazers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Prediction: Minnesota Timberwolves Reason: I'm taking the points with MINNESOTA. I feel that the situation strongly favors the T-Wolves here. For starters, they are playing well right now and bring some positive momentum into tonight's game. Two games ago, they traveled to Sacramento and knocked off the Kings. That's no small feat, as the Kings are typically pretty tough at Arco Arena. The T-Wolves followed that up by beating the Clippers in their most recent game, rallying from a 13-point third quarter deficit and giving them two wins in a row for the first time in more than a year. They've since had the past two nights off. Unlike their hosts, the Blazers are anything but well-rested. Indeed, they played last night and will now be playing their fourth game in the past five days, all in different cities. That's as gruelling as it gets in the NBA. Making matters worse is that last night's game was an extremely hard fought loss against Lebron James and the Cavs. That loss figures to be a bit tough for the young Blazers to immediately "shake off" as they were leading the entire first half and led by as many as 13 in the second quarter. The Blazers' previous two games had both been high-scoring "track meets," which had resulted in victories of six and three points. In other words, none of the first three games, in this current 'four games in five nights' situation, have been easy. That means that fatigue could be a real factor as the game progresses. Looking at the last five times that the Blazers played the second of back to back games and we find them at 2-3 SU/ATS. The two victories were both close, coming by two points vs. the Clippers and six vs. the Knicks. The three losses all came by a minimum of seven points. This marks the fourth game of a five-game trip for the Blazers. The final game is a "revenge" game against Sacramento, a team which defeated them at Portland a few weeks ago. With that game on deck, off a very tough loss, playing in a "gruelling" scheduling spot, and knowing that they will face these same T-Wolves at Portland in a few days, I expect the Blazers to struggle tonight. Look for the T-Wolves, who are playing with double-revenge, to have the fresher legs and for them to improve to 3-0 ATS on the season when listed as a home underdog of three points or less. *Western Conf. GOM
BULLS
Game: Utah Jazz vs. Chicago Bulls
Prediction: Chicago Bulls Reason: I'm taking the points with Chicago. Despite their recent winning streak, the Jazz remain below 500 on the road, going just 14-19 on the season. Note that they're also just 9-14 ATS in non-conference games. On the other hand, for all their struggles, the Bulls can get back to 500 at home with a victory this evening. All games are important to teams involved in the playoff race and the Jazz surely want to keep their momemtum going. That being said, this game is arguably more important to the Bulls than it is to the Jazz. Forget about the fact that they're playing with "revenge" from an earlier loss at Utah, the Bulls desperately need victories. Entering Tuesday's play, there are only three games seperating the 8th and 12th place teams in the East and the Bulls are right in the thick of it all, currently sitting in 10th. The Bulls have been fighting hard, as evidenced by their profitable 13-7 ATS mark over the last 20 games. As solid as the Jazz are, facing them here in Chicago is a significantly easier task than winning at Detroit vs. a Pistons team playing with "triple revenge" or winning at Boston. Coming off games at Detroit and Boston, I expect the Bulls to view tonight as both a winnable and an extremely important contest. The Bulls have won four of their last five home games, going 4-1 ATS, including a double-digit win over Cleveland in their most recent game here. I'll take the points but I look for them to continue their recent strong play here and for them to score the upset this evening, dropping the Jazz to 2-9 ATS when playing with two day's rest in between games. *Non-Conference GOW
HOCKEY
TORONTO
Game: Philadelphia Flyers vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
Prediction: Toronto Maple Leafs Reason: I'm playing on TORONTO. This is a big game for the Flyers, as they currently occupy the eighth and final playoff spot in the East. Its an even bigger game for the Leafs though, as they're way back in 13th, eight points behind the Flyers. With only a dozen games remaining and with four other teams in between them and the Flyers, making the playoffs is certainly a longshot. Barring a miraculous finish, it will mark the first time in the past 80 years that the storied franchise has missed the playoffs in three consecutive seasons. That being said, this team has a lot of heart and they certainly haven't quit. Despite a 2-1 loss to the Devils last time out, the Leafs remain a healthy 5-2-1 in their last eight games. They've already lost both previous games with the Flyers (after sweeping them last season) and they know that tonight's game is of the "must win" variety. The Leafs registered a whopping 56 shots in the 3-2 loss here at Toronto on January 5th but Flyers' goalie Niittymaki "stood on his head" to steal the win for the visitors. While they're unlikely to get 50+ shots again, I expect a similar level of intensity and for them to outwork the Flyers, who may let down just slightly, knowing that they face the Leafs at Philadelphia again tomorrow night. Look for Toronto to find a way to earn the critical two points, improving to 119-90 (+23.3) over the past decade after scoring one goal or less in the previous game. *Game of the Week
PASSING TONIGHT IN COLLEGE BASKETBALL
Larry Ness
Oral Roberts vs Ind.-Pur
IUPUI comes in as the 'hotter' team having won 13 of 14 and with the better overall record (26-6). However, Oral Roberts' 16-2 league mark this year (23-8 overall) gave the Golden Eagles their fourth straight regular season title (have won two straight conference tourneys) and while they aren't playing in their home gym (Mabee Center), they are playing in their home town of Tulsa. Gone from LY's champs are the 6-8 Caleb Green (20.5-9.3) and high-scoring guard Tutt (16.2) but the cupboard is hardly bare for Scott Sutton (in his ninth year at ORU). The frontcourt has depth, with the 6-10 King (9.7-6.6), the 6-8 Lewis (9.0-5.5), the 6-7 Vealy (4.7-4.8) and the 6-9 Ogunoye (3.1-3.3). In the backcourt, the starters are Ehambe (11.3) and Liberty (9.9), but the team's leading scorer is guard Jarvis (16.1), who comes off the bench. IUPUI probably has the best player on the floor in guard Hill (21.4-6.8-4.4) but inside, two 6-7 players, Avery (10.9-4.6) and Pettiford (8.8-5.5), will have matchup problems. During its current 13-1 run, the Jaguars beat ORU in Indianapolis 69-66, after losing in Tulsa back on Jan 17, 64-63. One can see by the scores that these teams are fairly even but in the end I'm siding with the home team (home city, anyway) which owns a HUGE edge inside and has the confidence that comes with its recent domination of its conference. Lay the short number, as ORU makes it three straight trips to the "Big Dance."
Black Magic Sports
1 Unit on Western Kentucky -8.5
Western Kentucky will win the Sun Belt Conference Title tonight in blowout fashion over Middle Tennessee State. Western Kentucky knows they have to win this game to get into the Big Dance despite their 26-6 record on the season. Middle Tennessee State is riding one hell of a ride into the finals, but it’s all about to come to a screeching halt tonight. Western Kentucky has won 4 straight and 5 of their last 6 meetings with Middle Tennessee. Western Kentucky is 15-4 in all meetings since 1997. Western Kentucky is just blowing teams out while playing determined basketball. They are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last 4 games overall, winning each contest by double-digits. Cash in with Western Kentucky as the favorite tonight.
Cajun-Sports Horizon League Championship
Game:Cleveland State Vikings vs. Butler Bulldogs
Line: Butler Bulldogs -10
Rating: TWO-Star
Selection:CLEVELAND STATE +10
Analysis: Top Seed Butler will host the Horizon League Championship Game tonight and will be facing the Vikings of Cleveland State. Cleveland State needs this win to get into the Big Dance but Butler is assured of an at-large bid no matter the outcome of this contest. These two teams have already met twice this season with the host holding serve in both contest but the Vikings were within five points here at Hinkle of stealing a win. Since that loss here the Vikings have not been on the losing end of any contest and have waited for this opportunity to avenge that loss. Motivation for Cleveland State not only comes from a chance to “dance” but an opportunity to take down the Bulldogs on their home floor. Match-ups are key and this Vikings team matches-up well against the Bulldogs as evidenced by their two previous meetings. From the technical side we note that the Bulldogs are 0-4 ATS off back-to-back SU wins, 2-7 ATS when facing an opponent coming in off a SU win and 1-5-1 ATS as a #1 or #2 Seed their last 7 times to post. Butler has also struggled in title games posting a 0-3 record since winning the league tournament in 2001. Cleveland State is 11-2 ATS after a win by 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons and 6-0 ATS after playing 2 consecutive games as favorite this season. We also have a system that tells us to Play Against CBB home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points coming in off a home win against a conference rival, a team with a winning percentage of >= 80% facing a team with a win percentage of 60% to 80% on the season, 61-22 ATS since 2002. Take the points here as the Vikings take the Bulldogs down to the wire. Cleveland State 67 Butler 68
Akmens
Butler/Cleveland State OVER 119
NorthCoast Community Line.
3* on Clev. St. Butler Under the total
3* on N.Arizona
Chris Jordan
400* Utah
100* Portland State
Philly Connection
SanJose St/L.Tech under 132
Sean Higgs
Weber State ---- Taking the points with the Panthers tonight. Northern Arizona swept the regular season this year, but will find it difficult to pull the hat trick. Weber is 6-0 ATS their last 6 overall and forget about, vs Big Sky teams they are 36-17 ATS their last 53. Clearly this team knows their opponents. The Lumberjacks of Northern Arizona on the other hand have limped in 3-7 ATS their last 10 and just 2-7 ATS their last 9 vs Big Sky teams. Weber, with better free throw shooting and defense, will win this one outright.
Under Butler --- Horizon League Championship Under tonight. These teams have played under 6 of 7 overall and 5 straight in Butler. The Vikings have played 7 of 10 under, 4 straight road unders. The Butler Bulldogs have gone under 4 of 5 vs Horizon teams and 5 of 6 vs teams with losing road records.
Chicago Bulls-- Let's take the home dog Bulls here. The underdog has hit 8 of the last 10 here. Bulls a very profitable 11-4 ATS as home dogs of a half to 4.5 points, while the Jazz fall into a 1-4 ATS stat on the road laying those numbers. Utah also a brutal 8-18 ATS as a road favorite their last 26 and just 9-19 ATS vs Eastern Conference teams their last 28 times out. Chicago catches a nice home win over the road weary Jazz here.
Wolkosky Milan
10* WASHINGTON -6
10* LA LAKERS -11½
10* MIL/WAS OVER 202
10* SEA/IND UNDER 218½
10* UTA/CHI UNDER 215
Bob Akmens
Louisiana Tech +6.5
This play is the result of a successful computer model that has allowed Bob Akmens Sports to finish in first-place in 152 different categories of documented monitored handicapping contests since 1978.
The computer models I’ve developed for each sport look at the most-predictive variables that go into the winning and losing of games.
Several interesting factors in today’s play are as follows (ATS = against-the-spread) –
LOUISIANA TECH covers when they play in:
A conference game: 10-5 ATS last 15 games
A game after a conference game: 10-5 ATS last 15 games
A game after allowing at least 80 pts: 6-1 ATS last 7 games, 10-3 last 13 games
A game vs a losing team: 9-1 ATS last 10 games
SAN JOSE STATE fails to cover when they play in:
A game where the total is between 130-139.5: 4-11 ATS last 15 games
A game where they’re favored: 0-5 ATS last 5 games; 6-11 last 17 games
The month of March: 0-6 ATS last 6 games
A game after a loss to a conference opponent: 3-7 ATS last 10 games
A game after failing to cover at least 3 in a row: 4-10 ATS last 14 games and 16-28 last 44 games
A game vs a losing team: 2-8 ATS last 10 games
GO WITH LOUISIANA TECH +6.5
LT Profits
Portland Trail Blazers @ Minnesota Timberwolves u189.0
The Portland Trail Blazers and Minnesota Timberwolves are two offensively challenged basketball teams, and we do not expect much scoring when the two square off tonight.
The Blazers are coming off of an 88-80 yawner of a loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers last night, and the Under is 10-5, 66.7 percent when Portland has played with no rest this season. They are averaging just 93.7 points per game on the road for the season, and not too surprisingly, the Under is 9-3 in Portland’s last 12 road games. Most incredibly, the Under is 26-10, 72.2 percent in all Blazers conference games this season!
Timberwolves are averaging 93.6 points per game overall with the Under going 35-25-2, 60.3 percent in all of their games. This is also their first game back home after a three-game Western swing, a situation where many teams come out sluggishly.
These teams combined for 169 points in a 90-79 Portland victory the last time they played in January right here in this building, and we look for a similar type of game here.
Pick: Blazers, Timberwolves Under 189.5
Louisiana Tech +6.5
It won’t be pretty, but in what should be a soppy game, we actually see value in the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs catching this many points vs. the San Jose State Spartans.
After all, this game is being played in Las Cruces, New Mexico, and both of these teams have been equally inept away from home. San Jose finished at 4-11 on the road while losing by an average of -10.7 points per game, nit exactly what you want in a six-point favorite! Besides, the Spartans are in poor current form, having lost their last five games overall both straight up and against the spread, including an 87-83 loss to these Bulldogs in the regular season finale on Saturday.
Yes, Louisiana Tech has been awful on the rod themselves, but at least they enter this tournament with some momentum, as that win over San Jose Saturday was their second straight following an upset win over Hawaii. Also, as bad as Louisiana Tech was SU this season (6-23), they actually had a winning 14-11 ATS record.
Finally, the Bulldogs actually covered both head-to-head meetings this season, and we look for them to make it a hat trick at what we feel is a generous spread.
Pick: Louisiana Tech +6.5
Mike Rose
Western Kentucky -8.5
This isn’t the Finals match-up that most expected once this tournament started last week. However, were now in the midst of the “Madness of March” so it makes perfect sense that the Blue Raiders upended the host of this tourney last night (South Alabama). Watching the Jaguars go down in flames certainly had the Hilltoppers grinning from ear-to-ear, and they should administer the deathblow tonight against a Blue Raiders squad that’s playing over their heads simply due to the extra adrenaline racing through their bodies.
MTSU’s road to the Sun Belt Championship started last week when they upended Louisiana Monroe at home 74-69, but failed to cover the 10-point spread. The combined 143 points soared Over the closing ‘total’ of 132.5. Their next game saw them upend the Troy State Trojans 65-59 in Mobile, AL as 6-point neutral court favorites. They pushed ATS, but the combined score fell comfortable Under the ‘total’. Last night’s game against host South Alabama saw them beat the Jaguars outright, 82-73, as 11.5-point underdogs and the combined points soar Over the closing ‘total’ of 131. So, through three games of the SB tournament, MTSU is 2-1 ATS and the Over has cashed in 2 of their 3 games.
Western Kentucky earned the #3 seed for the tournament, so they didn’t have to compete in the First Round. It’s Quarterfinal match-up against North Texas saw them win by an 84-70 final count and knock the Mean Green off for the second time this season. The 14 point win easily took care of their backers that laid 7.5-points and the 154 combined points eclipsed the closing ‘total’ of 144.5. Next up was Arkansas Little-Rock whom they pounded at home by a 71-47 final count at the end of January. The story was quite the same this time around as well as they rolled them by 15-points (70-55), and covered the 10-point spread in the process.
Western Kentucky took each of the match-ups this year (71-66 @ MTSU & 62-51 @ home), but MTSU covered both times (+6.5) & (+15.5). You know what they say about beating a team three straight times in the same season. That said, the underdog is 7-3 ATS the L/10 times these SBC rivals have squared off, but MTSU is 2-5-1 ATS their L/8 neutral site games as an underdog.
Do the Blue Raiders have enough in them to compete after pulling off a shocking win over the #1 seeded Jaguars last night, or will Western Kentucky hold suit and make a bubble team happy? Tune in to ESPN2 at 9:00 ET and find out!!!
Brandon Lang
5 Dime - Middle Tenn St
5 Dime - Penn
5 Dime - Cleveland State
5 Dime - Indiana Purdue
5 Dime - Northern Arizona
5 Dime - Timberwolves
Free Pick - Portland State
Keith Martin Sports
San Jose st. Over 132.5
Comp - Penn +3