Moneylockoftheday
Digger's pick
Florida State
Junior's pick
Minnesota/Maryland Under
WINNING POINTS
**PREFERRED
*Houston over Boston by 6
HOUSTON 97-91.
**PREFERRED
Golden State over *Sacramento by 10
GOLDEN STATE 120-110.
Phoenix over *Portland by 5
PHOENIX 109-104.
Larry Ness Las Vegas Insider
Game: Houston at Nevada
Prediction: Nevada
Reason: How about the lack of respect for C-USA? Of Course Memphis is a No. 1 seed (2nd to only North Carolina, overall) but the Tigers were the only one of 12 C-USA schools to make the "Big Dance." UAB was the only school the NIT wanted. If not for this new CBI tournament, that would have been it for C-USA. However, the CBI took Houston, Tulsa and UTEP. The Cougars have to be just sick. Houston opened the year 11-1 but finished the season with back-to-back losses to UTEP in the season's final regular season game 87-81 at El Paso and then in the C-USA quarterfinals, 80-77. Add it all up and the team's 22-9 record only gets them a plane ticket to Reno, Nevada. Why would the Cougars even want to make the trip? McKiver (23.1-4.1) is an excellent guard but he misses his partner from LY (Lafayette), who averaged 14.3 PPG. Lanny Smith(once a double digit scorer in back-to-back seasons for Houston), has never fully recovered from his injuries and averaged only 5.5 PPG on the season. Last year, the 6-6 duo of Dowell and Thorpe (10.9-6.1) was a nice pair but only Dowell (11.2-6.7) returned and the 6-8 Toney (6.8-6.1) has been an average partner for Dowell this year, at best. As for Nevada, four starters were lost off of LY's 29-win team, which made a FOURTH consecutive NCAA appearance. Trent Johnson led Nevada to the NCAA's Sweet 16 back in 2004 (then left for Stanford) but current head coach Mark Fox has been there since, as last year's team concluded a four-year run in which the Wolf Pack won 106 games. All in all, this has to be considered a good year, as Nevada went 12-4 in the WAC (a four-way tie for first-place) and after an eight-point loss to New Mex St (in Las Cruces!) in the WAC tourney, Nevada will take a 21-11 overall mark into this game. The 6-5 Kemp was the lone returning starter from LYand led the team with averages of 19.8-5.4-3.3. Fields (12.3) and A. Johnson (11.3-4.1) joined him on the perimeter with the 7-0 McGee (14.2-7.10 and D. Johnson (6.7-4.6) starting in the frontcourt. Nevada lost its second home game of the season (to Cal) but then went 12-1 SU the rest of the way in the Lawlor Events Center. The lone loss came to Boise St (won WAC tourney) on Jan 19 and Nevada ended the year with six consecutive home wins, by an average margin of victory of 19.7 PPG (only Utah St stayed within double digits). On the bench, I'll take Nevada's Mark Fox over Houston's Tom Penders, any day! Las Vegas Insider on Nevada.
FERRINGO
2.5-Unit Play.Take UNC-Asheville (+15) over Ohio State
The best system to follow when it comes to NIT betting is to fade the teams that got snubbed by the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee. Ohio State is exactly such a team. You’ll get a blowout or two along the way, but in general double-digit favorites come to play. Asheville only lost at North Carolina by 12, at Tennessee by 13, and at Virginia Tech by 14. If they can play with those clubs they should be able to hang around with the Buckeyes. They have plenty of size and they have five players averaging in double figures, so they can get scoring from all over the court.
2-Unit Play. Take Richmond (+13) over Virginia
If you want to lay 13 points to a team that runs the Princeton offense, go right ahead. I’ll take the other side. The Spiders were one of the surprise teams in the Atlantic 10 this season. And although they tailed off in Money Time against more experienced teams, they are spunky enough to want to roll into UVA and beat their in-state rivals. It has to be a lot harder for the Cavs to get up for this one and that Richmond has everything to gain here. Richmond won at Virginia Tech this season and has beaten quality teams like Dayton, Temple, and Charlotte. And although Sean Singletary should score 40 in this one, I think the game is played in the 60’s and the Spiders hang around.
2.5-Unit Play. Take Oklahoma State (+5.5) over Southern Illinois
The Cowboys have been on a smoking 7-1-1 ATS run and seem to have adjusted well to playing as a perimeter team. OSU laid an egg in the first round of the NIT last year, but I think that they will have much more focus this time around because they’re matched up against a highly reputable program. Southern Illinois will be without starting point guard Bryan Mullins. And on a team that struggled this year precisely because their backcourt stinks, this isn’t a positive development. These teams score and defend at a similar rate, so catching points in what should be a close game is a big benefit. I think the Cowboys can win this one so I’m taking the points.
3-Unit Play. Take Stephen F. Austin (+10) over Massachusetts
The Lumberjacks have proven that they can play with the big boys. They won at Oklahoma and at San Diego this year, and since Thanksgiving their four losses have come by an average of just four points. They can shoot, they generally control the tempo, and against a team that doesn’t exactly lock down on defense they should be able to put some points on the board. Massachusetts is another club that is grudgingly playing in the NIT. I think they can clear SFA tonight, but I don’t see them blowing the doors off. The Minutemen are 3-7-1 ATS at home and 0-7 ATS at home against a team with a road winning percentage over .600.
STRIKE POINT SPORTS
1.5-Unit Play Take Robert Morris +14 over Syracuse
Because are the Orange really that interested in the NIT? Last year 'Cuse hosted an opening round NIT game and failed to cover a big number over South Alabama, and this year's young team is much more inconsistent. Had this been a non-conference game at the beginning of the season with a team wanting to improve, then it might be different. But Robert Morris will be the more focus team wanting the win. They'll get the cover in the Carrier Dome.
2-Unit Play. Take Robert Morris/Syracuse Under 155
The game above will stay under this number. They would each need basically 80 a piece, and I don't think this one will be played at that high a tempo. Th SU zone will slow down Robert Morris to a halfcourt game, and neither shoot the three ball well enough to light it up. This one stays in the low 70s at best.
2-Unit Play. Take Akron +8 over Florida State
Again, if this were a game at the beginning of the season, it would be different. But Florida State has again let down and not made the NCAA Tourney. How motivated are they now that they're stuck in the NIT again. Akron slipped up big time in the MAC title game, and I think they'll want to erase that bad loss and keep their season going. Zips are the play here.
2-Unit Play.Take Maryland +3.5 over Minnesota
For some reason I see the Terps coming out and playing a really good game. That hasn't been the case, but a new opportunity like this could be a nice way to close the season. Head coach Williams will have Maryland ready, and I think they take this game outright over the Gophers.
1.5-Unit Play.Take Rhode Island +7 over Creighton
This Rams team is tricky to figure out. They certainly have the talent, but for some reason it hasn't risen to the top of late. But the points here are certainly nice, because Rhode Island can win this game outright. I'll take a chance with the points and see what come about with them.
2-Unit Play. Take Rhode Island/Creighton Under 150.5
We'll see the Blue Jays want to keep this game in the 50s or 60s, and if it gets into a high scoring game, well, that favors Rhode Island, and thus our number above will likely hit. I think we see this one in the 60s, but in a closer game. Play the under.
Black Magic Sports
1 Unit on Golden State Warriors -2
Golden State has made easy work of the Sacramento Kings as of late. The Warriors are 3-0 in their last 3 meetings with the Kings, winning their last 2 contests at Sacramento. The Warriors beat the Kings by 7 and 17 points respectively in their last two road meetings with Sacramento. They have been a much better road team this season and they have a lot more at stake than the Kings considering they are one of the last teams in the playoffs if the season were to end today in the Western Conference. The Warriors are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games overall, scoring 116 points per game in the process. Golden State is 29-12 ATS as a road favorite of 6 points or less since 1996. Sacramento is 2-13 ATS in home games after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points over the last 2 seasons. Cash in with Golden State as the favorite.
DOC'S
4 Unit Play. Take Alabama State +19 over Arizona State
Being an ASU alum, I tend to follow the Sun Devils more closely then most would and know that this squad is really bummed about being in the NIT, since they feel they did enough to be in the big dance. That being said, it is hard to imagine they can be huge favorites against any team in the country, since they do not play the style of offense that allows them to reach triple digits very often. The Devils really struggled down the stretch and the Hornets are a solid team that went 15-3 in conference play. This will be a victory for the No. 1 seeded Sun Devils, but they will not be able to cover this inflated number giving us a top play cash with the Hornets.
3 Unit Play.Take Richmond +12 ½ over Virginia
In order to allow even crapper teams into the postseason a new tournament has been created called the CBI and it features a pair of Commonwealth teams on Tuesday night. Richmond comes from the A-10 Conference, a very underrated conference that wound up sending three teams into the big dance. That was only one less then what the ACC sent. Virginia has the best player on the floor in Sean Singletary, but his supporting cast is not good enough to allow for a blowout on Tuesday.
EZ WINNERS
NCAA
2 STAR: (587) STEPHEN F AUSTIN (+9.5) over Massachusetts
(Risking $220 to win $200)
2 STAR: (585) COPPIN STATE (+7) over Mount St. Marys
(Risking $220 to win $200)
1 STAR: (593) AKRON (+7.5) over Florida State
(Risking $110 to win $100)
1 STAR: (596) SOUTHERN ILLINOIS (-5.5) over Oklahoma State
(Risking $110 to win $100)
1 STAR: (598) MINNESOTA (-3.5) over Maryland
(Risking $110 to win $100)
NBA
1 STAR: (583) PHOENIX (-3.5) over Portland
(Risking $110 to win $100)
Larry Ness
Phoenix vs. Portland
Today's Pick: PORTLAND BLAZERS
Shaq had 14 points and 16 boards vs San Antonio but in the Suns' last three wins, in which they've averaged 127.3 PPG, Shaq's taken a total of just 12 shots, while averaging 9.3 PPG. Maybe the Suns are better with Shaq NOT contributing? Anyway, Phoenix won at Portland not that long ago (March 4), 97-92 That's really nothing new, as the Suns have won seven straight and 11 of their last 12 games against the Blazers. However, the Blazers are a very solid 23-9 SU at home this year, going 8-3 ATS as home dogs. The team is also 8-3 ATS over its last 11 overall games. Roy (19.3-4.9-5.8) is having another superb season (was R-O-Y last year) plus Aldridge (17.5-7.3) has made great strides in his second season, coming into this game having averaged 23.7 PPG over his last six outings. The difference between Portland now and then (when the Blazers went 17-1 SU and 16-2 ATS from Dec 3-Jan 9) is, that the role players are not stepping up as well on a regular basis. All that said, let's remember that Phoenix is just 2-2 SU on the road with Shaq, getting beat at New Orleans (by 17) and Denver (by 13), while winning at Memphis (big deal!) and here in Portland (by just five). In that March 4 loss, the Blazers were only 2-of-15 from behind the three-point line. A 4-for-15 performance would have meant a one-point win. I'm taking the home dog. Take the Blazers.
Rocky Atkinson
Stephen F. Austin vs. Massachusetts
Today's Pick: STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
Massachusetts is 2-9 ATS since 1997 in first round tournament games. Stephen F. Austin comes in with a 26-5 SU record this year. Stephen F. Austin is allowing only 55.6 points per game overall this year and 58.3 points per game on the road this season. Minutemen are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 home games. Minutemen are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Minutemen are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. Minutemen are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. We'll recommend a small play on Stephen F. Austin tonight!
Wunderdog MLB Play
Game: Oakland at Texas
Pick: 2 units on Oakland +102 (moneyline) (risk 2 to win 2)
The A's have had a great spring thus far at 15-5. They have scored more runs than any other team in the Cactus League, and at the same time have given up the fewest. Justin Duchscherer continues to impress this spring with his 2.25 ERA in two appearances, and is penciled into the rotation to this point. The Rangers will send Luis Mendoza to the hill. Mendoza is trying to lock down a place in the starting rotation, but his spring performance is not aiding his case. Mendoza has pitched to a 12.15 ERA this spring, so we will ride the A's who have been great at the plate and on the hill and have what appears to be the pitching advantage here.
GAMBLERS WORLD
TIP OF THE DAY
Sport: NCAA Basketball Game
Brown Bears vs. Ohio Bobcats
Prediction: Ohio Bobcats
Current Line: -8 Over/Under: 127 Reason: The Brown Bears and the Ohio Bobcats will battle Tuesday in the inaugural College Basketball Invitational Tournament at Ohio University Convocation Center. Oddsmakers currently have the Bobcats listed as 8-point favorites versus the Bears, while the game's total is sitting at 127. Team records: Brown: 19-9 SU, 13-9 ATS Ohio: 19-12 SU, 15-13 ATS Brown most recently: When playing on Tuesday are 4-6 After playing Dartmouth are 5-5 After a win are 8-2 Ohio most recently: When playing on Tuesday are 5-5 After playing Miami (Ohio) are 4-6 After a loss are 8-2 A few trends to consider: Brown is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games Brown is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road The total has gone OVER in 4 of Brown's last 5 games The total has gone OVER in 4 of Brown's last 5 games on the road Ohio is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games at home The total has gone OVER in 4 of Ohio's last 5 games Ohio is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 games at home Ohio is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games
Wolkosky Milan
10* DALLAS -6
10* LAL/DAL OVER 205½
10* MIA/MIL OVER 197½
RAS
Nevada -4.... 1
Richmond +12... 1
ODU OVER 139... 1
RAS
Nevada -4.... 1
Richmond +12... 1
ODU OVER 139... 1