Philly-Connection Premium Play
3* Richmond +12.5
Philly-Connection Free Play
Ohio -7.5
Arthur Ralph
Superpick: Richmond
Regular Play: Alabama St
FREEBIE : Ohio U
Cajun-Sports NBA 100% Winning Angle
Game: Phoenix Suns vs. Portland Trailblazers
Line: Phoenix Suns -3.5
Rating: TWO-Star
Selection: (584) PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS +3.5
Analysis: With a win tonight the Suns will have won five straight a feat they have not repeated since November 30 - December 7th. They will be playing six of their next seven on the highway and attempt to keep pace with the Lakers for the top spot in the Pacific Division. Portland opened a three-game home-stand on Saturday with a 107 to 96 win over Minnesota. LaMarcus Aldridge had 26 points and 5 boards, while Brandon Roy finished with 25 points and 8 assists. Aldridge is averaging 23+ points per contest which is 6.2 points better than his season average over the last six games. Roy is averaging 24+ points which is 4.5 more than his season average during the last three games. Roy had 25 points in their last meeting with the Suns and is averaging better than 24 points a game in his last three versus Phoenix. Aldridge only had 11 points in the last meeting with the Suns and has only averaged 6 points per contest during his 5 career games versus them. We look for those numbers to improve as Roy and Aldridge have begun to play well together and so has the team around them. We note that the Blazers are 23-11 ATS when facing a team with a winning record at home over the last two seasons; they seem to get up for quality opponents. They are also 15-4 ATS when coming off a SU win and playing at home. Take this one step further and their record improves to 15-2 ATS if they also won that game ATS. If they have been having success against the spread, covering at least 4 or 5 of their last 6 contests they are a solid 8-1 ATS at home. Finally when Portland is coming in off a game where they won S/U by 10 or more points and scored at least 105 points in their last game and are now playing at home they are a perfect 14-0 ATS in that situation. Take the points here as the host takes the Kids from the Valley of the Sun right down to the wire.
Tom Freese
Rhode Island vs. Creighton
Creighton is 26-14 ATS off a conference game and they are 8-1 ATS after failing ATS in 3 of their last 4 games. The Bluejays are 4-1 ATS their last 5 home games and they are 6-2 ATS on Tuesday. Rhode Island is 4-11 ATS off a conference game and they are 1-8 ATS off a conference loss. The Rams are 3-15-1 after losing 4 or 5 of their last 6 games.
PLAY ON CREIGHTON
Triple Threat Sports!
Syracuse (-) over Robert Morris
Cuse is one team that does get excited about playing in the NIT, especially this season, as there were not real Big Dance aspirations after that loss to Nova in the Big East tournament. Boheim will have his team ready, and Robert Morris has not risen to the challenge well in this type of setting, posting a 1-7 ATS mark in tournament play, and in fact lost on their home floor in the conference tournament semifinals. Lay the lumber here.
Jeff Alexander Sports
1 Unit on Stephen F. Austin +9
The Minutemen did not want to be playing in the NIT as they felt they had a team capable of making the Big Dance. Stephen F. Austin is a good team and should not be catching this many points against a UMass team lacking motivation. UMass is 1-8 ATS in home games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game over the last 2 seasons and 8-24 ATS in home games after having won 3 of their last 4 games since 1997. Stephen F. Austin was a 13-4 road team this season and the Minutemen were just 4-8 ATS in home games. Also, Ford is only 2-9 ATS in home non-conference games as the coach of UMass. Take the points.
SPORTS REPORTER
*DETROIT over DENVER by 14
*MILWAUKEE over MIAMI by 7
MILWAUKEE 88-81
NEW JERSEY over *CHICAGO by 8
L.A. LAKERS over *DALLAS by 10
RECOMMENDED
*HOUSTON over BOSTON by 6
HOUSTON 100-94
GOLDEN STATE over *SACRAMENTO by 9
PHOENIX over *PORTLAND by 12
Matt Fargo
Stephen Austin vs. Massachusetts
Play: Stephen Austin
The NIT cannot be looked at the same way as the NCAA Tournament or the regular season for that matter. While the games are decided on the court, a lot of them are already decided before the games are even played and this could be one of those. Massachusetts has no interest in playing in this game or in this tournament. The Minutemen had a very good season and they thought they could sneak into the Big Dance but the résumé just wasn’t good enough.
While they are disappointed to not be going to the NCAA Tournament, it will be hard for them to be getting up for this game following what happened in the Atlantic Ten Tournament. Massachusetts had an 18-point lead in the second half against Charlotte and also a nine-point lead with less than five minutes to go but the 49ers rallied for a second straight night. Leading scorer Gary Forbes along with other teammates lay stunned on the floor after the game showing what a disappointment it really was.
While the Minutemen want no part of this, Stephen F. Austin is thrilled to be here. The Lumberjacks are not happy about losing in the Southland Tournament to Northwestern St. but this is the first appearance in a national tournament in over 20 years so it is special. This is the best season since joining Division I 21 years ago and their record ended up being the 10th best in the country. Sure they came from a weak conference but they went to San Diego and Oklahoma and came away with outright victories.
The Lumberjacks five losses this season are due to the top two scorers having been contained offensively. Josh Alexander and Matt Kingsly average combined 31.9 ppg and the Lumberjacks are 19-1 this season when both reach double figures, and they are undefeated at 10-0 when they both score their average. The Minutemen do not have a defense that can contain both and they should be able have their success down low. Massachusetts has only one player taller than 6’7” that contributes significantly.
On the flip side, the Lumberjacks have held 21 opponents to 60 points or fewer and have only allowed three teams to score more than 70 points. They have held opponents to 39.2 percent shooting from the floor which is 14th in the country. The numbers do not get much worse on the road either. Another big factor is free throw shooting as they are hitting 73.9 percent over their last five games while Massachusetts is hitting a mere 63.2 percent over that same span. Massachusetts is on upset alert as a large favorite. Play Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks 1 Unit
Tony Karpinski
Robert Morris vs. Syracuse
Play: Robert Morris
Pick on Robert Morris = We are going to take the 13 points tonight. For these small school to be playing in the NIT is a dream come true. Robert Morris is a decent squad and will control the tempo. Syracuse will be flat after getting crushed in the second half against Villanova in the Big East Tourney. They are used to going to the big dance each year and will have a major letdown tonight. I don't see any motivation for them to be playing Robert Morris.
Priceless Picks
1 Unit on Chicago Bulls -5.5
The Nets are terrible on the road at 11-21 SU and 12-19 ATS this season. New Jersey has lost 7 straight road games and is 0-6-1 ATS in those games. The Nets are 6-16 ATS in March games over the last 2 seasons, 8-23 ATS after playing a home game this season, and 3-12 ATS after playing 2 consecutive home games this season. Chicago is 11-3 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season. The Bulls are 3-1 SU and ATS at home versus the Nets the past 3 seasons. Lay the points.
Dave Malinsky 4* play
GAME: Denver Nuggets @ Detroit Pistons
PICK: under
Offered at: 212.5
REASON FOR PICK: 4* DENVER/DETROIT Under
The market behavior on this one should not come as a surprise at all, off of that Nugget explosion against Seattle on Sunday night, making it a remarkable 305 points over the last two games. The oddsmakers saw that coming, of course, when they opened a 209 that was already higher than it should have been, and now we see 212.5 becoming common. We are not sure that this one can go any higher, so we will play now. This is not the Harlem Globetrotters vs. the Washington Generals anymore.
If you are George Karl, among the last things that you want to do off of those offensive explosions is to face a team like Detroit on the road. The Pistons take a lot of pride in their defense and physical play, and will relish the opportunity to give the Nuggets their comeuppance. That is what this kind of team does, and you can imagine Rasheed Wallace chalking his elbows while watching those recent Denver films. And to slow the Nuggets down will not be anything new - there have been five meetings between these teams since Karl took over in Denver, and they have played to an average of 188.6 points in regulation, with the Nuggets failing to reach 100 in any of them.
This is not just about defense, of course - the Pistons are masters at controlling tempo at the offensive end, which helps to keep running opponents from ever getting out of the starting gates. They have only been involved in five home games all season in which the posted Total was higher than 195, and those games played 4-1 to the Under, finishing a collective 75 points below the projections, a full 15 points per game. With this being only the 5th game in 11 days on the current home stand the physical freshness is there to execute a game plan similar to that 98-93 win in Denver three weeks ago, when they had little time to prepare (played at Phoenix the previous day), yet still had full command of the tempo. An offense that is second in the NBA at taking care of the basketball won’t be forced out of their preferred rhythm and timing, which gives us plenty of room to work with at this price.
LT Profits
Atlanta Thrashers @ Philadelphia Flyers u5.5
The Under is now 7-1 in the last eight head-to-head meetings between the Atlanta Thrashers and the Philadelphia Flyers, and we see no reason why this game should be any different.
The Thrashers are having a very disappointing season after the best year in franchise history a year ago, and they have had trouble finding the net lately, scoring three goals or less in eight of their last nine games including scoring two or less in six of those contests. They have been particularly bad on the road all season, averaging just 2.30 goals per game overall.
The Flyers were actually contending for the division title a little while ago, but they have now plummeted to eighth in the East, no thanks to a current four-game losing streak. Philadelphia is averaging just 2.00 goals per game during this streak, scoring 1, 2, 2 and 3 goals respectively. Now granted, Atlanta is usually much more generous defensively, but none of the three head-to-head meetings so far this year have exceeded five combined goals scored.
We look for more of the same tonight, as these teams will struggle to reach five goals in their current forms.
Pick: Thrashers, Flyers Under 5.5
Oklahoma State @ Southern Illinois u122.0
The Southern Illinois Salukis are accustomed to playing low scoring games in the Missouri Valley Conference, while the Oklahoma State Cowboys do not object to a half-court pace either, so points should be at a premium tonight.
The Under is 4-1 in the last five Southern Illinois games, with a very low average combined total score of just 115.4 point in those contests. They are playing great defense during this stretch, limiting their opponents to 41.0 percent shooting from the floor, and considering that Oklahoma State is shooting just 40.7 percent from the floor on the road for the entire season, we look for that fine defense to continue.
Now the Salukis are averaging 67.6 points per game offensively at home this season, but we are not convinced they could reach that level vs. a Big 12 opponent here. Southern Illinois’ scoring average drops to 62.2 points when they played out of conference this season, and in three games against the six so-called power conferences, the Salukis scored 45 points vs. USC, 51 vs. Indiana and 63 vs. Mississippi State.
Another effort in the 50s would not surprise us here, so look for a safe Under.
Pick: Oklahoma State, Southern Illinois Under 122
Delaney
10* Suns
20* Stephen F Austin
ATS Basketball Lock Club
4 units Robert Morris
4 units NC-Ashville
3 units Denver Nuggets
NHL
4 units Edmonton
3 units Over Wash-Nash
The Fat Jack
RHODE ISLAND +7
OKLAHOMA STATE +5 1/2