Wunderdog NBA
Game: Denver at Detroit
Pick: 5 units on Detroit -5 (-110) (risk 5 to win 4.6)
The Nuggets high octane offense has now put up 305 points in their last two games. The 168 vs the Sonics was an NBA season high. We were on them in that game, a 52-point win, but we are fading them in a big way tonight. When the Nuggets score, they win, and usually cover, but when they don't they get buried. Don't think the Pistons haven't taken notice of this! Detroit takes defense personally, and when they step on the court with defense in mind, they just don't give it up. The Nuggets are averaging 109 ppg, but when they play on the road against teams in the top eight in the NBA in points allowed, they average a very pedestrian 95.7 ppg! That's a full 13+ point dropoff. The odds-makers say they don't reach 100 tonight, and that means they will be in trouble. The Nuggets are just 2-16 ATS when they don't reach the century mark. They have reached scored 100+ in 15 of 21 road games, or 71.4% of the time vs teams not in the top eight in points allowed. They have hit triple-figures in 3 of 10 games or 30% vs the top eight. Detroit is at the top of the NBA in points allowed. Just six of 32 teams have gotten to the century mark against the Pistons on their home floor this season. Denver over the last three years (six games), has never scored triple digits against the Pistons home or away, without the assistance of OT. Denver can't win when they don't score 100, and have gotten beaten up by some of the solid NBA teams on the road that play defense. They have already lost at San Antonio by 11, at NO by 24, at Boston by 26, at Houston by 28, and at Houston again by 14. Those are teams in the top five in the NBA. The Nuggets output in these games? 93.7 ppg! Detroit by double-digits.
Game: Los Angeles Lakers at Dallas
Pick: 3 units on Dallas -5.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
The Lakers are all of a sudden at risk of losing three straight. We think they do, and don't keep it close. They've had a rough schedule since sitting on top of the Western Conference a few days ago. They had to face New Orleans, then Houston and now Dallas with Utah on deck! Without the services of Pau Gasol, this team just isn't nearly as good. We were all over Houston last game as our Game of the Month and the Lakers lost by 12 points. Without Gasol again here, facing a resurrgent Mavs team, we see a similar result. Even before Gasol went out, there were signs of problems for LA as tehy have now lost seven of their last ten games ATS. Dallas meanwhile has won five straight SU and ATS, blowing out all comers. They love playing at home where they are 29-4, and they will be "up" for this game. The Lakers are 1-9 ATS the past two seasons off two straight road losses. They are also 4-16 ATS in March games this season and last. Dallas is 9-0 ATS the past two seasons at home after covering the spread as a double-digit favorite. We have momentum going in two completely opposite directions here and we'll take the team on the up, which is Dallas.
Game: New Jersey at Chicago
Pick: 3 units on Chicago -5.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
The Nets have won back-to-back games vs. playoff teams in Cleveland and Utah. Now they are a 5.5 point underdog to the Bulls who have lost two in a row and four of their last five, allowing 109 per game over that stretch? Seems kinda funny, huh? Yes. We will embrace that strangeness and back the Bulls here. The fact remains that prior to their most recent couple of wins, the Nets lost six in a row both SU and ATS. In those six losses, they averaged just 84 ppg! They are just 11-21 SU and 12-19 ATS on the road this season, allowing 102 ppg. Chicago is playing with revenge here and NBA favorites revenging an upset road loss are a 65% ATS play if they have a losing record. The Bulls are 11-3 ATS in their last fourteen games vs. teams that allow 100+ ppg. New Jersey is 14-23 ATS this season ass an underdog and they are 3-13 ATS after covering two of their last three games. Bulls in a big win here.
Game: Boston at Houston
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 182.5 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Houston has now won 22 consecutive games and will face the NBA's best team, at least record-wise, tonight at home. It is about as close to a playoff game atmosphere as you'll ever find in an NBA regular season game. When you consider defense, it is reflective most noticeably in the play of Houston, Boston, San Antonio and Detroit. Houston has had two at home with San Antonio, and no one has gotten to even 90 points. Boston has had three games with Detroit and the highest points prodcued was 92, with no game reaching 180 total points scored. Houston also played San Antonio on the road, and the total points scored was 174. Now we have the ultimate two defenses, squaring off in nothing short of a playoff game. As a result, this game will be hard pressed to touch 180, and is likely to be played in the mid-80s to the winner. We like this to go UNDER as is, but the special nature of this one adds to the value, as we have a regular season line in a game with playoff intensity.
Game: Boston at Houston
Pick: 4 units on First Half UNDER 90.5 -110 (risk 4 to win 3.6)
For many of the same reasons, we like this high-intensity game to also go UNDER in the first half.
Game: Golden State at Sacramento
Pick: 3 units on Game Total OVER 229 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
The Warriors are averaging 116 per game over their last five while allowing 106. Sacramento scores 105 per game at home while allowing 102. This is why this total is set at 229. Yes, high, but not high enough given the styles and recent play of these two teams. Sacramento is 31-24 OVER the past two seasons vs. winning teams. They are 35-18 OVER during that span vs. teams that hoist up 18+ three pointers per game (the Warriors average 27 per contest). The Kings are also 41-28 the spast two seasons vs. teams that allow 100+ ppg. In games that are expected to come down to the wire (line of +3 to -3), Golden State is 14-6 OVER this season. They are also 24-14 OVER after scoring 100+ in four straight games. This one's going to be a shootout of epic proportions.
BEN Burns
NHL
Game: Phoenix Coyotes vs. Edmonton Oilers
Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Phoenix and Edmonton to finish UNDER the number. These teams played a relatively high-scoring game against each other at Phoenix recently. With a ton on the line, I'm expecting a much lower-scoring affair this evening. The Coyotes managed only one goal at Vancouver last night. That marked the 11th time in their past 12 games that they've scored two goals or less. The lone 'other' game saw them manage only three. Not surprisingly, the UNDER was a profitable 8-3-1 during that stretch. Its also worth noting that they've seen the UNDER go 3-1 the last four times that they played the second of back to back games and that they scored a total of only six goals during that 4-game stretch. The Oilers knocked off the Sharks 2-1 last time out and only two of those goals came in regulation. For the season, they've seen the UNDER go 14-7 when playing a home game with an over/under line of 5.5. Looking back further and we find the UNDER at a highly profitable 112-67 (63%) when they've been in that situation (home game with a total of 5.5) over the past decade. Look for those numbers to improve as this evening's "defensive battle" falls below the number once again. *Annihilator
Bob Balfe
NBA Basketball
Nets +5 over Bulls
College Basketball
Coppin State +7 over Mount St Mary's
Coppin State is a team lead by all seniors and they have the best player on the court in senior point guard Tywain McKee. Mckee can take over a game and on a National Spotlight with the whole country watching I believe he will do just that. Mount St. Mary's is probably the better team and they have a very deep bench, but this is a win or lose situation so I am more looking for how starters are doing. Coppin State started the season 4-19, but in those losses played a number of tournament teams. Those teams all beat them, but experience of big games will help. The bottom line is Coppin State lost 20 games this year and maybe the worst team according to their record ever to get into the tourney. They simply have nothing to lose. Look for McKee and the rest of the seniors to make this a very close game. Seven points is too high. Take the dog!
Savannah Sports
3 Units on Houston +4.5
Rob Veno
Stephen F. Austin +9.5
Blue Chip: Oklahoma State +5.5
Blue Chip: Ohio Over 127.5 -110
Atslocks.com (not Atslock Club)
10 Unit Ohio U -8 Over Brown
8 Unit Akron +7.5 Over Florida St
5 Unit Minnesota -3 Over Maryland
Erin Rynning
Playmaker. Nets +5.5
WAYNE ROOT
Chairman - SF Austin
Millionaire - Richmond
Money Maker - Pistons
Maddux Sports
3* Det-5
3* Portland +3.5
3* Coppin State +7
3* Creighton -7
3* Richmond +12
Rocketman Sports
1* Stephen F. Austin +9 1/2
1* Akron
1* Alabama State
1* Rider
Winning Points Online NCAAB
NCAA PLAY-IN (at Dayton, OH)
**PREFERRED
Mount St. Mary's over Coppin State by 14
Your really have to love the media for its after-the-fact resourcefulness. The following is courtesy of USA Today:
''Don't underestimate the team with a losing record in the play-in game of the NCAA basketball tournament. Since the first play-in game in 2001, all four teams with sub-.500 records that have played in that game have won — Siena in 2002, UNC-Asheville in 2003, Florida A&M in 2004 and Oakland (Mich.) in 2005 — and advanced to face a No. 1 seed.''Isn't that special? Coppin State is the team with the losing record in tonight's NCAA Play-in Game. That is the team which USAToday is recommending not be "underestimated,"based solely on what four other teams did -- four other teams who are not Coppin State.
In 2004, Florida A&M had a better offensive efficiency rating than the team they beat, Lehigh. In 2005, Oakland had a better offensive efficiency rating than the team they beat, Alabama A&M. And, for tonight, Coppin State does NOT have a better offensive efficiency rating than the team they meet, Mount St. Mary's. Coppin State gets only .89 points per possession, and their best player who averages 16 points per game is coming off a 33-point performance. He's gotta come down off that. Mount St. Mary's gets .98 points per possession. Not good when matched up against a typical NCAA Tournament team. But Coppin State is not a typical NCAA Tournament team.
The media loves to make assumptions based on flat Won-Loss records. Without that "history" of Play-in wins by sub-.500 teams in the Play-in game, they'd have said that Coppin State had no chance tonight. With the history, they have invented a reason for why Coppin State has a chance.Sure, they have a chance. But we don't have to like that chance. MOUNT ST. MARY'S, 68-54.
Kelso
50* Maryland
The Prez
Los Angeles Lakers @ Dallas Mavericks
PICK: Over 205
REASON FOR PICK: The loss of center Pau Gasol (ankle) makes the Lakers -- less defensive -- and more reliant on the outside jumper. Dallas, who has picked up their defensive intensity as of late, still isn't the stop-unit they've been the last two years. The two Western Conference powers, Los Angeles and Dallas, enter a Tuesday night affair staring down a 205.5 total, one that should easily be surpassed, as each team will struggle to stop the other.
Dallas' victories over the last two months have come against the leagues weak sisters -- the Eastern conference -- and the Lakers didn't realize how dependent they had become on their center position until Gasol went down last week. In fact, Dallas hasn't beaten another Western contender since January.
As ominous as not beating a Western Conference foe may sound, the Mavs have won five in a row to remain but 2 1/2 games behind state-mate Houston. Since the acquisition of Jason Kidd, Dallas is 0-5 against current playoff teams losing to New Orleans, San Antonio, the Lakers, Utah and Houston.
The Over is 4-0 in Lakers last 4 games as a road dog (plus 5.5 at Dallas tonight) and is 6-0 in Lakers last 6 games following a S.U. loss (Houston).
Key Stat: The Mavs have gone over the total seven straight times against Pacific division foes.
The Lakers will need 40 points from Kobe Bryant tonight -- which they will get -- and the Mavs will take advantage of mismatches in the paint to find the charity stripe 30 times. The combination of these two factors alone offer investors a top play on OVER the total in Dallas.
Bob Akmens
NHL Atlanta Thrashers/Philadelphia Flyers OV 5.5 (-115) / 3 units
NBA Los Angeles Lakers/Dallas Mavericks OV 209.0 / 3 units
College Basketball Oklahoma State/Southern Illinois UN 122.0 / 3 units
College Basketball Rhode Island/Creighton OV 150.5 / 3 units
Gina
Phoenix Suns (44-22) at Portland Trail Blazers (35-32)
Phoenix has won seven straight and 11 of the last 12 meetings, including six of its last seven at Portland. Go with the Phoenix Suns tonight at the Rose Garden for their fifth straight win. The Trail Blazers will have a big task staying with the Suns. Phoenix is the second highest scoring team in the league averaging 110 points per game.Portland is a horrible 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games at home and 1-6 ATS in its last 7 home games against Phoenix.
Phoenix Suns