NORTHCOAST
SIGNATURE PLAYS
3* Cleveland Cavaliers
The Platinum Sheet
PHOENIX at LA LAKERS
I’m not sure why I have this hangup on fading the Lakers this week, but it continues here on Christmas against the Suns. So far in ’07, the Lakers have played well enough to warrant being favored here or at the very least, a very small home underdog. On the road though is where the Suns really “shine”. PHOENIX is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. The average score was PHOENIX 110.1, OPPONENT 104.7 - (Rating = 2*). This is also a nice revenge spot for Mike D’Antoni’s team and PHOENIX is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons. The average score was PHOENIX 107.2, OPPONENT 101.8 - (Rating = 1*). We should see a focused Suns’ team in this holiday game.
Play: Phoenix +1
The Gold Sheet
TUESDAY, DECEMBER 25
Miami 96 - CLEVELAND 95—Miami has been a solid play when getting more than a handful of points on the road this season, covering 6 of 7 when getting 6 or more points away from home. Cavs have been in a pointspread-cover drought over the last month, covering just 4 of last 12 games through Dec. 22, and Miami gave them all they wanted last season, winning 3 of the 4 meetings. Remember, last year Cleveland was on top of its game. This year, not so much for the 12-15 (through Dec. 21) Cavs. 06-MIA -5' 92-89 (194), CLE -2' 103-79 (193), MIA +3 86-81 (185), Mia +6 94-90 (OT-182)
Phoenix 109 - LA LAKERS 108—There are two ways to look at this one. First that Phoenix is going to be more than a little motivated by the fact that the Suns absorbed their worst defeat of the season on Nov. 2 when the Lakers came to Phoenix and won 119-98. That should be enough to get the juices flowing for Steve Nash, Shawn Marion and Amare Stoudemire. On the other hand, the Lakers are 2-0 this season as a home dog, and they have played very well at Staples Center against the league’s elite teams, logging a 10-5 spread mark facing “A” teams at home in ‘05-06 and ‘06-07. They are also 7-3 vs. the number last 10 games facing Phoenix. 07-La +9 119-98 (216); 06-LA +5’ 114-106 (207), PHO -10 99-94 (220), Pho -4' 115-107 (218), PHO -10 93-85 (220), PHO -10' 95- 87 (211), PHO -9 126-98 (208), LA +4 95-89 (210), Pho -5' 113-100 (207), PHO
-10' 119-110 (210)
PORTLAND 106 - Seattle 90—This is the first meeting between Kevin Durant and the youngsters from Portland (the league’s youngest team). Blazers have won and covered 6 straight at the Rose Garden prior to hosting Denver on Friday, and expect their run of good fortune to continue against a Seattle side that plays little defense most nights, yielding 105 ppg, the third-highest figure in the league. Sonics just don’t get enough out of guard Earl Watson or center Kurt Thomas to pose a serious threat to Portland’s young depth. 06-Port +8' 110-106 (198), SEA -6' 97- 73 (203), Sea +3' 95-77 (196), PORT +1 108-102 (192)
Pointwise NBA Newletter Selections
TUESDAY, DECEMBER 25
(2:30) Miami Heat 109 - CLEVELAND CAVS 108
(5:00) Phoenix Suns 110 - LA LAKERS 106
(8:05) PORTLAND BLAZERS 99 - Seattle 88
BEST BETS: MIAMI (4), PORTLAND
Mighty ! Quinn
Lost another one last night
Suns -2 1/2
9 - 26 last 35 plays
JB Sports
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS -4.5
Mike Rose
Lakers
Vegas Experts Tip Of The Day
13-9 Month of Dec
7-5 totals
6-4 sides
These teams aren't on National TV often and that's going to mean offense, not defense. Seattle gives up 107 per game on the road and Portland's lit it up and scored 100.6 its last five games. Clubs have gone over the total in five of the last eight meetings. In fact, SEATTLE is 144-100 OVER vs. division opponents since 1996.
Play on: Over
Yankee Capper
NBA
3 Units - Miami Heat +5
3 Units - LA Lakers +3
ARTHUR RALPH
Portland Trail Blazers
Sebastian
7* Seattle +7 ½
10* Phoenix -3
Red Zone Sports
Mia Heat
Insider Sports Report
4* Phoenix/L.A. Lakers OVER 220.5
3* Portland -7.5 over Seattle
Elite Sports Picks
Phoenix/L.A. Lakers OVER 220.5
Discount Sports Picks
5* L.A. Lakers +2.5 over Phoenix
Charlies Sports Members Section
Seattle @ Portland over 198 (500* )
Cleveland-4' (30*)
Phoenix-3 (20*)
Phoenix @ Lakers under 220 (20*)
Miami @ Cleveland under 192 (10*)
Frank Rosenthal
Cavs-4.5
Under 192
Suns-2.5
MTI Sports
4-Star Miami +5 over CLEVELAND - Cleveland is off a 105-96 home loss to the Warriors. The Cavs were down 38-22 at the end of the first quarter and never once held the lead. The Cavs have been in situations like this before and have came up empty. Cleveland is 0-9 ATS with less than two days rest when they are off a loss in which they never led, failing to cover by an average of 9.9 ppg. After their dismal performance vs the Warriors, the normally affable Lebron James refused to talk to the media. HC Mike Brown have no explanation for the Cavs' poor performance. His job is in jeopardy, yet he has no answers.
The Heat, on the other hand, are off a home win over the Jazz in which they shot 51.9% from the field and made 20-of-23 free throws. This is an excellent PLAY-ON situation - especially if the team is a road dog after such a solid shooting performance. The league as a whole is 11-0 ATS (+7.5 ppg) as a road dog with at least one day of rest after a game in which they shot at least 50% from the field and at least 85% from the free-throw line. After the win over the Jazz, Dwayne Wade said, "It's big. It's big because we'd lost four of our last five games. This is a very good team and this shows the toughness of the team. We can build from here.''
Finally, the Cavs host the Mavs next, a team that beat them 92-74 in their opener this season. Home favorites with non-conference revenge games next are not good investments. In fact, NBA teams are a combined 0-9 ATS as a single-digit home favorite with a non-conference revenge game next, winning only one of the nine games straight up!
Miami has played on each of the last three Christmases and has won all three games. Grab the points and consider a moneyline play on the Heat.
MTI's FORECAST: MIAMI 94 Cleveland 92
4-Star Phoenix at LA Lakers OVER 220' - The Suns are off a 122-103 win over the Raptors in which Steve Nash was 3-of-7 from the field but dished out a whopping 16 of the team's 32 assists. When Steve Nash relieves himself of the scoring burden and allows his teammates to score, the Suns can play some very high-scoring games. Phoenix is a perfect 10-0 OU since November 03, 2006 after a win at home in which Steve Nash took fewer than 10 shots, going over by a staggering 29.4 ppg on the average. This exclusive player-based trend is 3-0 this season, with each game going over by double-digits without the benefit of an overtime. In addition, the Suns are 6-0 OU since December 07, 2006 after a win at home in which Steve Nash had more assists than points, with an average OU margin of an unheard-of +37.9 ppg.
Finally, the Suns are an amazing since December 05, 2001 on the road after a double-digit home win in which they had at least thirty assists, eclipsing the OU line by an average of 29.6 ppg.
LA is off a 95-90 win over the Knicks in which they held NY to 39.5% shooting nd had only 18 assists on 37 baskets. These stats point to a high-scoring game here, as the Lakers are 8-0 OU (+13.9 ppg) as a home dog after a game in which they allowed less than 40% from the field and 7-0 OU (+12.0 ppg) as a home dog after a game in which the percentage of their baskets that were assisted was at least ten percentage points lower than their season-to-date average.
The Lakers' player-based trends reveal that LA is 6-0 OU (10.9 ppg) at home after a win on the road in which Derek Fisher shot worse than 33% from the field and 7-0 OU (11.2 ppg) after a win on the road in which Lamar Odom took fewer than 10 shots. The Suns offense will be unstoppable and the Lakers will have to abandon the half-court game in an attempt to keep up. An entertaining affair.
MTI's FORECAST: Phoenix 121 LA LAKERS 115
4-Star Seattle +7 over PORTLAND - This is by far the most points the Blazers have given all season and they most they have given to a rested opponent since the 2004-05 season, when they beat the Hawks 102-101 laying 12. It's a challenge for a team that is used to playing the role of underdog to play as a heavy favorite. The role of underdog is motivating. It is a role from which a team can gain respect. As a favorite, the Blazers will not have this motivation. Portland has been a 4+ point favorite three times this season and is 0-3 ATS and 1-2 SU in those games.
In their last game, the Blazers outscored the Nuggets 30-20 in the fourth quarter to earn a 99-96 win. Now they have three days off after this heroic effort. This can be a very soft spot for teams. In fact, the league is 0-15 ATS with at least three days rest when they are off a win in which they trailed at the end of the third quarter, as long as they weren't getting 8+ points in that come-from-behind win. in addition, the Trailblazers themselves are 0-7 ATS as a home favorite with 3+ days rest, failing to cover by an average of a whopping 15.2 ppg.
Seattle is off a 123-115 win over the Raptors in which they shot 56.0% from the floor and made 19-of-21 free throws. This is an excellent PLAY-ON situation - especially if the team is a road dog after such a solid shooting performance. The league as a whole is 11-0 ATS (+7.5 ppg) as a road dog with at least one day of rest after a game in which they shot at least 50% from the field and at least 85% from the free-throw line.
When a young team is hot, three days off is not what they want. It will cool them off and allow the Sonics to easily stay within this number - and perhaps pull the outright upset. Grab the points.
MTI's FORECAST: PORTLAND 91 Seattle 95
Sports Gambling Hotline
Seattle at PORTLAND (-8)
Our free play run stands at 30-18 the last 48 days.
Christmas night action from the pacific-northwest, and we have to go with the favored Blazers over the Sonics. Talk about a December to remember, Portland is on a 10-game winning tear, and they have covered in 9 of those 10 games.
Greg Oden...Greg Oden who? Portland is way ahead of schedule, and while this was supposed to be a marquee showdown of Oden and Sonics top draft pick Kevin Durant, it is now a look at a Trailblazers team that is the feel-good story of the NBA these first two months.
Seattle is just 4-10 away from home, and 6-8 against the spread away from the Key Arena. Portland meanwhile sports a 12-3 mark at the Rose Garden, and they have gone 10-5 against the spread at home thus far.
This is the first meeting of the season between the teams, and we will side with the hot host to make it 11 in a row, and 10-1 against the spread.
Play on Portland.
2* PORTLAND
Larry Ness
Phoenix
Drew Gordon
1. 200,000* Suns
2. 50,000* Sonics
IndianCowboy
Game: Phoenix Suns @ Los Angeles Lakers
Pick: 3 unit(s) TOTAL: Under 221.5 (-107) (Play of the Day)
2 Plays today - both are free since its Christmas. Happy Holidays to you and yours.Write-up to come shortly.
Lakers/Suns Under 221.5
The Lakers are more of a defensive team than people give them credit for. The Lakers are 2nd in the league in rebounding and top 3 in the league in field goal percentage. Tack that on with the fact that the Suns will look to be more active on the defensive end today as they must if they are going to win the rebound total and not to mention that they gave up 119 points to this team at home last time, makes for a decent under play here. The Suns have played the under of late on the road in their last 4 contests and the Lakers are more of a physical team than people give them credit for as the maturing of Andrew Bynum cannot be understated. The under is also 6-0 in Western Conference Games for the Suns and the under is 6-1 for the Lakers when they play teams with a winning percentage of greater than 60% showing that when bette teams come knocking, this team does play with a bit more defensive intensity.
Suns -1.5 First Half
(Additional Play (Can't plug this in the backend - feature not yet available, but this is a play).
Regardless of how well the Lakers are defensively, when the Lakers carried a 33 point lead at one point against the Suns on the road at Phoenix, the Suns will be fired up for this game. I do expect the Lakers to come back and make this game competitive but I think the Suns get off to a fast start. After all, the Suns are a team that were rusty in the beginning of the year as there was a new cog in the system known as Grant Hill. Now, this team has meshed and this team would love to get some revenge here and the Lakers are more of a second half team regardless anyway. For example, remember back to when the Nuggets played the Lakers in L.A. and the Lakeshow started off very poorly only to come back fired in the second half. I look for the Suns to play with more intensity in the first half and this game to tighten up in the second half.