Jeff Benton
A piss-poor third quarter by the 76ers in New Orleans cost us our free play on Monday. Still, I’m on a 45-27 roll with the freebies over the last 72 days, including 20-11 in College Hoops. For Tuesday, we’ll venture to ACC country and play Maryland minus the points at Boston College.
I backed the Terrapins with a free play on Saturday and it was easily my worst call of the entire college basketball season, as Maryland got annihilated at Duke 85-44 as a 15-point underdog. It was as complete and thorough a beat-down as the final score indicated – for instance, Maryland scored just 15 first-half points, had nearly as many turnovers (17) as made field goals (18), shot 28.1% overall, made just 2 of 12 three-point tries and had only 29 rebounds. In fact, if not for an off shooting day by the Blue Devils (42.5%), the Terps might’ve lost by 55 or more!
So why come back with Maryland tonight? It’s a simple situational play. Look, Maryland’s not as bad as it looked on Saturday, just as we knew that Boston College wasn’t nearly as good as it looked in a stunning 85-78 victory at then-No. 1 and unbeaten North Carolina on Jan. 4. You may recall that the Eagles followed up that historic win on Tobacco Road with four consecutive lopsided losses (including one at home to Harvard). And although they have pulled out of that funk to win their last two against Georgia Tech (80-76 overtime win) and N.C. State (79-68 at home), I couldn’t have been less impressed because the Yellow Jackets and Wolfpack are ACC bottom-feeders this season.
Maryland is 11-1 at home, and while I admit that the majority of those wins came against weak non-conference competition and two inferior ACC opponents (Virginia and Georgia Tech), the fact is the Terps are defending their own turf. Also, prior to the debacle against Duke, Maryland had been on a 9-3 run, with the three defeats coming by a total of six points!
Simply put, Gary Williams is way too good of a coach with way too much pride not to have his team ready to play this game tonight. And if the Terps were to bounce back win this by 15 or more, I wouldn’t be at all surprised. Lay the reasonable price.
5♦ MARYLAND
Matt Rivers
For Tuesday take the points with the Kings.
It's hard to say much negative about LeBron and the Cavaliers right now and especially when they are at home but I will still take my chances with this huge number back on the Kings.
Cleveland just had a very very successful 3-1 West Coast road trip capped off with a buzzer beating win in Golden State and then the outright in Utah on the rough back-to-back with travel. Now Mike Brown's squad is back home where the team is unblemished and playing a poor Sacramento team.
Sure the perfect home record should remain in tact as Cleveland is too good to lose this game against the poor 10-35 Kings, who have dropped five in a row and 17 of 20, but this is that first game back after a long road trip which is normally a very tough game to cover and with West and Ilgauskas still banged up I can't help but grab this monstrous number back with a bad but at least semi capable Sacramento team.
Kevin Martin is a quality scorer and there are a few other pieces like John Salmons. This team is better than their record indicates and I can't exactly see the Cavs exactly be all that into this thing after traveling back home here from the left coast.
LeBron and the home boys are certainly rolling right now and will win but I will take such a hefty number back for sure with the capable Kings.
Nelly
Buffalo - over Western Michigan
Years ago Western Michigan held one of the great home court edges in the nation but this season the Broncos have lost three home games, losing to mediocre teams Loyola-Chicago, IUPUI, and UW-Green Bay. Western Michigan has won four of the past five games after an ugly 3-10 start to the season but this team is not strong enough to compete with some of the better teams in the MAC, home or away. Buffalo is one of those teams as the Bulls are 12-5 on the year and only have one loss in conference play. Buffalo has won seven of its past eight games despite only playing two of those games at home. The Bulls won at Miami last weekend and also beat Akron away from home. Buffalo also won neutral site games against Pepperdine, Colorado, and Colorado State and early in the season lost by just four playing against Connecticut. Buffalo is 9-4 ATS on the season and this will be a key game for the Bulls after losing in OT at home against the Broncos in the lone meeting last season. Although this may look like a tough situation with a second straight road game the Bulls have shown they can handle a grueling road schedule and Buffalo should control this match-up.
JIM FEIST
DENVER NUGGETS / MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
Take: MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
Something has been missing with Memphis of late: Wins and effort. At least the effort will change this game, as they Grizzlies introduce new coach Lionel Hollins, replacing fired head coach Marc Iavaroni. This will be the first home game for the new coach. They face a Denver team a long way from home, one that has played onlyl ONE road game the last 10 games! Look for a fired-up effort from the home team and crowd for the new coach. Play the Grizzlies.
Cajun Sports
Marshall Thundering Herd vs. Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles -8.5
2* Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles -8.5
The Thundering Herd will make the long trip south from West Virginia to Mississippi to face Conference USA rival Golden Eagles on Tuesday night.
Marshall has fallen below .500 on the season (9-10 SU) after suffering a loss on Sunday to Central Florida, 87 to 69 as a 7 point road underdog. The Herd has been well below the .500 mark when it comes to ATS records for most of the season as they are a money burning 2-11 ATS this season overall.
Marshall has struggled when playing as a road underdog; they are 36-56-1 ATS. Tonights contest falls into the point range where the Herd has had the most trouble, as they are 0-7 ATS when playing on the road an installed as an underdog of 6.5 to 12 points. Southern Miss has been a money-maker in this situation with a record of 23-8 ATS as a favorite over the last three seasons and 12-3 ATS when facing a team with a losing record over the same period of time.
The boys from Marshall have a record of 1-9 SU and 2-7 against the spread when taking to the highway. They are averaging 66.7 points per game versus teams that allow 68.9 points per game. Defensively the Herd allows 77.1 points per game against teams that normally only score 69.8 points per game. Marshall is shooting 39.1 percent from the field when playing on the road; their three-point shooting is as horrific, shooting only 29.5 percent from behind the arc. While allowing their opponents to shoot 46.9 percent from the field and 45.3 percent from three-point land, all bad signs for a Herd team a long way from home.
Southern Miss has been successful at home this season posting a record of 8-2 SU but only 2-3 against the number. Overall the Golden Eagles are 12-6 SU and 5-7 ATS with the overall record certainly being helped by their play at home. They are averaging 70.6 points per game versus teams that normally only allow 68.1 points per game and on the defensive end of the floor the Eagles have held opponents to 58.3 points per game against teams that average 68.5 points per game.
All signs point to a Southern Miss win and cover in tonights contest so we will lay the chalk and back the host as they add to their home record an improve on their ATS record as well.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: (2*) Southern Mississippi 73 Marshall 56
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Sacramento Kings
When Cleveland returns home to host Sacramento tonight they will do so knowing they are just 6-16 ATS as home chalk off a 4-plus game road trek, including 1-8 ATS when off a SU and ATS win. With Cleveland eyeing up a much bigger game with Orlando on deck, look for the Kings to improve to 6-3 ATS in this series here this evening.
Bobby Maxwell
Sacramento +14 at CLEVELAND
Cleveland is back home after a four-game West Coast road trip. They've played six of their last seven on the highway and return home just one day after finishing the trip in Utah with a 102-97 victory as three-point 'dogs.
The Cavs won their final three games on the trip and seven of their last nine (6-3 ATS). But we've got a theory that we go against teams returning home after a long roadie. There are too many distractions once they get home and the fatigue really starts to set in.
You look at the history of this series and you'll see why the Kings always seem to be right there against the Cavs. Last season, the Cavaliers edged the Kings 93-91 in Sacramento and didn't cover as a six-point favorite and then they met in Cleveland and the Cavs scored a 97-93 win and again failed to cover as an eight-point favorite.
Only one of the last six games (three years) between these two has been decided by more than 10 points. Sacramento is also 5-3 ATS in the last eight meetings with the Cavs and 6-4 ATS in the last 10.
The Kings are also on ATS runs of 4-1 against the Central Division, 5-2 after a non-cover and 5-2 on the highway against teams wtih a winning home record. Cleveland is just 3-7 ATS after a straight-up win and 2-6 ATS in their last eight after a spread-cover.
Grab all these points tonight and play the Kings in Cleveland. They likely won't win it outright but it's going to be a whole lot closer that people think. Play Sacramento.
4♦ SACRAMENTO
Sports Gambling Hotline
Kentucky -8' at OLE MISS
Yes, the line is starting to get a little inflated on Kentucky, but we see no reason to buck them now, as Billy Gillispie's team is rolling strong as they head to Oxford having won their last 5 games, and 11 of their last 12 straight up.
The Wildcats have also won, and covered their last 3 on the SEC road, and tonight they are facing an Ole Miss team that has lost their last 3, and 4 of their last 5 straight up.
Last season, Kentucky took a 58-54 decision at Rupp as the 5 1/2-point favorite, and they did win their last visit to Ole Miss back in 2007 by 10-points.
In fact, the Wildcats are 4-1 straight up their last 5 trips to Oxford.
Things going too well right now to go against Kentucky.
We say lay the road wood with the Wildcats, as they pick up another road win, and cover on the SEC trail.
Play on Kentucky.
2♦ KENTUCKY
Karl Garrett
Purdue +1 at WISCONSIN
College basketball tonight, and there is just no way I can back Wisconsin right now, even at the Kohl Center.
Wisconsin comes into this game having lost their last 4 games both straight up, and against the spread, and their offense has really been sputtering of late, as Bo Ryan's team has been held in the 50's in two of those four losses.
The Badgers losing streak started against Purdue, as the Boilermakers took a 65-52 decison earlier this month at home. That win was the start of the Boilers current 4-game winning streak as they take to the court tonight.
Purdue has won the last 3 series meetings, and they have covered the last 4 series meetings.
Until the G-Man sees some signs that Wisconsin is consistently capable of putting the ball through the hoop, the G-Man will fade them.
Take Purdue.
4♦ PURDUE
GAVE COKIN
BOSTON COLLEGE / MARYLAND
Take MARYLAND
I love the situation as they will be determined to show they.5?re better than in that total disaster at Duke on Saturday. The only thing that prevents me from actually playing this is that BC has gotten out of their own slump and the Eagles are now dangerous as road dogs. But playing decent teams off a seriously awful performance is not bad strategy, so I.5?ll lean to the Terrapins here.
Brett Maverick Sports
Wisconsin -1
Our free selection comes from the College Ranks where we go to one of the toughest places in the Nation for a visitor to walk out with a win . Bo Ryan's Badgers are 115-9 on this home court and 24-2 straight up when playing with revenge. With just a win needed to get the money, we look for Wisconsin to continue this hard nosed home attitude and cash a nice spread winner tonight. When Purdue does not win straight up when facing revenge they are 1-20 vs the spread. Take the home court advantage with Wisconsin.
AC Sports Advisors
Charlotte Bobcats vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Play: Charlotte Bobcats +11.5
I think Lakers have a little let down here after two big wins this week against Clev and SA. The Laker are getting ready to hit the road also and don't usually cover these big spreads. Plus Bobcats are playing good ball and should keep it close hey buy a point for insurance.
Big Al Mcmordie
Texas at Baylor
Play: Texas
At 9 pm, our member selection is on the Texas Longhorns plus the two points over Baylor. Texas comes into Tuesday night's Big XII Conference battle with Baylor off a 67-58 home win over the Aggies of Texas A&M, while the Bears were waxed by Oklahoma 95-76, snapping their two-game win streak. Baylor has been installed as the favorite here, and there's no denying the Bears have a good team this season. But Texas has won 22 straight games in this series, so it's tough to pass up a quality program like the Longhorns with that kind of history on their side. Additionally, Baylor falls into a negative 31-73 ATS system of mine which plays against certain home favorites off a loss of 16 or more points. Take Texas.
Jimmy The Moose
Montreal Canadiens at Tampa Bay Lightning
Prediction: Tampa Bay Lightning
This will be the first game after the All Star break for both team's. The Canadiens had several players representing the team team in the game and will be the more tired team tonight. The Canadiens come into this one having lost 2 straight and 3 of their last 5 games. After a horrible start the Lightning are finally starting to play up to expectations and have won 5 of their last 7 games. Tampa has won 3 of their last 4 home games. The team's have played twice this season with Tampa winning the first meeting 3-1 and losing the second 2-1 in a shootout. Tampa played the Canadiens tough and they'll take this one tonight. Play on the Tampa Bay Lightning +
Brian Hansen
Buffalo Sabres at Edmonton Oilers
Prediction: Edmonton Oilers
The Oiles are 24-19-3 and are coming out of the break having won in their last game of the 1st half, 4-3 at home over the Blue Jackets. The Sabres are 2-5 their last 7 when playing with 3 or more days rest! Play on EDMONTON!