DUNKEL
San Antonio at Utah
The Spurs look to bounce back from their loss against the Lakers and take advantage of a Utah team that is just 3-9 ATS in January. San Antonio is the underdog pick (+2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the game even. Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (+2 1/2).
Game 701-702: Indiana at Orlando
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 116.987; Orlando 129.488
Dunkel Line & Total: Orlando by 12 1/2; 208
Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 9 1/2; 214
Dunkel Pick: Orlando (-9 1/2); Under
Game 703-704: Sacramento at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 108.673; Cleveland 125.743
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 17; 209
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 14; 203
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-14); Over
Game 705-706: Denver at Memphis
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 121.767; Memphis 111.244
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 10 1/2; 203
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 6; 201
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-6); Over
Game 707-708: San Antonio at Utah
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 120.559; Utah 120.679
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 195
Vegas Line & Total: Utah by 2 1/2; 193
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (+2 1/2); Over
Game 709-710: Charlotte at LA Lakers
Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 118.772; LA Lakers 128.352
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 9 1/2; 200 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 12; 195
Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (+12); Over
NCAAB
Northeastern at VA Commonwealth
Northeastern is averaging just 62.5 points per game and runs into a VCU team that is 12-4 ATS against poor offensive teams (<=64 points per game) over the last three seasons, including 2-0 ATS this year. Virginia Commonwealth is the pick (-6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Rams favored by 9. Dunkel Pick: VA Commonwealth (-6 1/2).
Game 711-712: Buffalo at Western Michigan
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 56.611; Western Michigan 59.253
Dunkel Line: Western Michigan by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Pick
Dunkel Pick: Western Michigan
Game 713-714: Delaware at George Mason
Dunkel Ratings: Delaware 50.120; George Mason 64.588
Dunkel Line: George Mason by 14 1/2
Vegas Line: George Mason by 11 1/2
Dunkel Pick: George Mason (-11 1/2)
Game 715-716: Eastern Michigan at Kent State
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Michigan 42.574; Kent State 61.379
Dunkel Line: Kent State by 19
Vegas Line: Kent State by 15
Dunkel Pick: Kent State (-15)
Game 717-718: Miami (FL) at NC State
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (FL) 68.195; NC State 64.250
Dunkel Line: Miami (FL) by 4
Vegas Line: Miami (FL) by 2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (FL) (-2)
Game 719-720: Kentucky at Mississippi
Dunkel Ratings: Kentucky 71.461; Mississippi 63.960
Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Kentucky by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Mississippi (+8 1/2)
Game 721-722: Boston College at Maryland
Dunkel Ratings: Boston College 62.775; Maryland 65.378
Dunkel Line: Maryland by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Maryland by 4
Dunkel Pick: Boston College (+4)
Game 723-724: Air Force at Wyoming
Dunkel Ratings: Air Force 50.701; Wyoming 58.297
Dunkel Line: Wyoming by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Wyoming by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Air Force (+9 1/2)
Game 725-726: Indiana State at Creighton
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana State 51.120; Creighton 65.974
Dunkel Line: Creighton by 15
Vegas Line: Creighton by 16 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana State (+16 1/2)
Game 727-728: Purdue at Wisconsin
Dunkel Ratings: Purdue 71.413; Wisconsin 69.440
Dunkel Line: Purdue by 2
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 1
Dunkel Pick: Purdue (+1)
Game 729-730: Texas at Baylor
Dunkel Ratings: Texas 69.745; Baylor 68.618
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1
Vegas Line: Baylor by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+1 1/2)
Game 731-732: Marshall at Southern Mississippi
Dunkel Ratings: Marshall 54.413; Southern Mississippi 66.811
Dunkel Line: Southern Mississippi by 12 1/2
Vegas Line: Southern Mississippi by 8
Dunkel Pick: Southern Mississippi (-8)
Game 733-734: Northeastern at VA Commonwealth
Dunkel Ratings: Northeastern 57.614; VA Commonwealth 66.799
Dunkel Line: VA Commonwealth by 9
Vegas Line: VA Commonwealth by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: VA Commonwealth (-6 1/2)
Game 735-736: BYU at Utah
Dunkel Ratings: BYU 64.293; Utah 71.691
Dunkel Line: Utah by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Utah by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Utah (-3 1/2)
Game 737-738: Iowa State at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Iowa State 57.071; Colorado 54.565
Dunkel Line: Iowa State by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Pick
Dunkel Pick: Iowa State
Game 739-740: Austin Peay at Eastern Kentucky
Dunkel Ratings: Austin Peay 52.717; Eastern Kentucky 52.697
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Eastern Kentucky by 2
Dunkel Pick: Austin Peay (+2)
NHL
New Jersey at Ottawa
The Senators have won three of their last four overall and four of their last 6 against the Devils at home. Ottawa is the underdog pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has the Senators favored straight up by 1. Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (+110).
Game 51-52: Detroit at Columbus
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 12.585; Columbus 12.642
Dunkel Line & Total: Columbus by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-170); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Columbus (+150); Over
Game 53-54: Washington at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 12.096; Boston 11.670
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-160); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+140); Over
Game 55-56: Carolina at NY Rangers
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 11.301; NY Rangers 10.240
Dunkel Line & Total: Carolina by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers (-160); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+140); Under
Game 57-58: Montreal at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 12.660; Tampa Bay 11.556
Dunkel Line & Total: Montreal by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Montreal (-150); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-150); Over
Game 59-60: New Jersey at Ottawa
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 11.091; Ottawa 11.891
Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: New Jersey (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (+110); Under
Game 61-62: Philadelphia at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 12.377; Florida 11.412
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Florida (-110); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-110); Under
Game 63-64: Toronto at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 11.051; Minnesota 10.591
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota (-190); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+165); Over
Game 65-66: Atlanta at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 10.881; Dallas 12.408
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas (-210); 6
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-210); Over
Game 67-68: San Jose at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 11.490; Colorado 12.239
Dunkel Line & Total: Colorado by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-200); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+170); Over
Game 69-70: Anaheim at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: Anaheim 11.444; Phoenix 12.602
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 1; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-125); Under
Game 71-72: Buffalo at Edmonton
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 11.655; Edmonton 12.823
Dunkel Line & Total: Edmonton by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Edmonton (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (-125); Over
James Patrick Sports
San Antonio vs. Utah
The Cavs took down the Jazz in Utah's last home game and then the Nuggets got the best of the Jazz on Sunday evening in Denver. The Spurs are just 1-5 ATS in Salt Lake City and this series has seen the home team cash in 17 of 21 games. We'll stay at home with Utah Jazz as our Tuesday selection in NBA action.
Tom Freese
San Antonio Spurs at Utah Jazz
Prediction: Under
San Antonio is 24-8-1 UNDER their last 33 games as underdogs and they are 41-19-1 UNDER their last 61 road games. The Spurs are 44-21 UNDER off a straight up loss and they are 22-8-1 UNDER as road dogs. Utah is 8-3 UNDER their last 11 games as favorites of 4.5 or less points and they are 6-1 UNDER on Tuesday. The Jazz are 5-2 UNDER vs. a team with a winning road record and the last 8 meetings in Utah with the Spurs have gone 6-2 UNDER. PLAY ON 'UNDER'
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Utah Jazz -2
Utah has lost 3 straight and will be out for blood at home tonight. The Jazz are 5-1 straight up and ATS at home versus the Spurs over the last 3 seasons. Not having Boozer and Kirilenko hurts the Jazz but they have been without key players throughout the season and are still 17-5 at home. The Spurs have dropped 4 straight regular season games in Salt Lake City and Utah is an impressive 13-3 ATS in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was UTAH 102.9, OPPONENT 91.2. Utah is also 16-5 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons
Wunderdog
Anaheim at Phoenix
Pick: Anaheim +106
The Coyotes have sure out-played the Ducks this season. But when these teams get together, the Ducks have had it all over Phoenix. There is one other place the Ducks have shined over the years and that's when playing an opponent off a big offensive performance. The Ducks own a 36-15 mark when facing an opponent that scored five or more goals in their previous game (Coyotes notched six vs. Red Wings). The Ducks shutout the Coyotes 2-0 in their only meeting thus far this season, and that runs their mark to 20-9-1 in the last 30 played between these two teams. I'll stick with the hot hand and go with Anaheim here as a live dog.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Nuggets/Grizzlies UNDER 204
Memphis has scored 91 points or fewer in 9 straight and is 12 of its last 13. Its low scoring has produced 9 unders in its last 12 games and we'll ride this unders machine again tonight. 5 of Denver's last 7 games have gone under the total and 6 of the last 7 meetings in this matchup have gone under the number. Plays under on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (MEMPHIS) - cold team - failing to cover the spread in 12 or more of the last 15, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days are 22-3 since 1996. Utilize the Under.
LT Profits
Kentucky -8
The Kentucky Wildcats are somehow still unranked despite playing as well as any team in the country right now, but they can go a long way toward correcting the pollsters oversight with a nice double-digit road win tonight vs. the Mississippi Rebels.
Kentucky is 11-1 straight up and 9-2 against the spread in the last 12 games, with the only straight up loss being by three points on the road at Louisville. Their average winning margin during this 12-game stretch is +17.9 points, and they are 4-0 ATS on the road during this run with double-digit wins at Tennessee, Georgia and Alabama.
Their recent success has not been lost on the Pomeroy Ratings, where the Wildcats are ranked number 20, mainly due to a defense that is ninth in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency. They also making 56.7 percent of their two-point attempts offensively (fifth in nation) while limiting opponents to an incredible 38.1 percent success rate on twos (second).
Meanwhile, Mississippi is a modest 10-9 straight up, ranking them just 108 by Pomeroy. The Rebels do not force many turnovers (rank 277) and they allow too many offensive rebounds (303), so we do not see how they can slow the Wildcats down if Kentucky goes on another of their big runs that have become rather routine lately.
Even with this game in Oxford, this contest could get out of hand quickly as we see Kentucky rolling to another double-digit road win.
Pick: Kentucky -8
THE GOLD SHEET
ORLANDO 109 - Indiana 92—After getting pushed into OT at Conseco Fieldhouse Nov. 21, Orlando made sure it was properly focused in 110-96 cruise past Indiana at Amway Arena eight nights later. Pacers had no answer for Dwight Howard (32 points & 21 boards) in 2nd meeting, using four different defenders and numerous combinations on “Superman” to no avail. Hot Magic has won and covered last 6 thru Jan. 21. 08-Orl -2 100-98 (OT-203), ORL -7' 110-96 (203); 07-Ind +8 115-109 (212), Orl -3' 121-115 (214), ORL -10' 122-111 (221)
CLEVELAND 106 - Sacramento 81—Oddsmakers might consider how close Sacto played Cleveland last season when Kings covered both meetings (2 and 4-point decisions)...but they’re still liable to make Cavs an exorbitant favorite. Which might not be a problem for LeBron & Co., considering Cavs’ 12-3 chalk mark at “The Q” entering this contest. 07-Cle -6 93-91 (193), CLE -7' 97-93 (191)
Denver 107 - MEMPHIS 93—Trade rumors running rampant in Memphis (G Mike Conley supposedly on block), as Grizzlies continue in meltdown mode,dropping 9 of last 10 SU and failing to cover 8 of those last 10 thru Jan. 18. And in Memphis’ last five consecutive losses thru Jan. 18, Grizzlies have held the lead exactly once. Denver still likely to be without Carmelo Anthony (fractured hand) for another week or so, and remember that ‘Melo led Nuggets scorers with 24 in 100-90 win over Memphis back on Nov. 9. 08-DEN -8’ 100-90 (198); 07-Den -3 106-102 (216), DEN -16 108-86 (226), Den -8' 120-106 (231), DEN -15 120-111 (232)
UTAH 95 - San Antonio 86—Payback is definitely on Utah’s mind after numbing 119-94 beating it absorbed from S.A. back on Nov. 21. And Jazz can’t use excuse of no injured Carlos Boozer or Deron Williams that night, as Spurs were also shorthanded (backcourt of Tony Parker & Manu Ginobili was also sidelined). Boozer still likely to be out of action, but Jazz still keeping their heads above water, winning 5 of last 7 thru Jan. 19. 08-SAN -4' 119-94 (174); 07-SAN -1 104-98 (201), UTAH -2' 97-91 (194), UTAH -3 90-64 (197), SAN -4' 109-80 (184)
LA LAKERS 104 - Charlotte 98—L.A. not so reliable laying points lately at Staples Center, dropping last 3, and 8 of last 11 spread decisions as home chalk. Meanwhile, Charlotte offering good value as road dog (12-5 vs. line in role thru Jan. 24), and remember that Bobcats (a 14-point dog!) shocked Lake Show at Staples a year ago. 07-La -8' 106-97 (209), Cha +14 108-95 (211)
THE GOLD SHEET
WESTERN MICHIGAN over Buffalo by 1 to 2—07-Wmu -4 100-90 (2OT)
GEORGE MASON over Delaware by 8 to 11—07-DEL +6 73-68 (OT), GMU -15 70-58
KENT ST. over Eastern Michigan by 13 to 16—07-Ksu -5 77-67
NORTH CAROLINA ST. over Miami-Florida by 3 to 5—07-NCS -1' 79-77 (OT), Mia -5 63-50 (CT)
Kentucky 75 - MISSISSIPPI 62—Gears beginning to mesh nicely for Billy Gillispie’s UK bunch that is now confident it can succeed on SEC trail after impressive recent road romps at Tennessee (when G Jodie Meeks scored aschool-record 54 points!) and Georgia. Dynamic inside-outside combo of Meeks & 6-9 soph frontliner Patterson (18.4 ppg) too much for Ole Miss, still on short rations minus star G Warren and further depleted in backcourt with Gs Gaskins & Polynice also on shelf. 07-KY -5 58-54
MARYLAND over Boston College by 4 to 6—07-Bc +6 81-78, Mary -1 70-65, Bc +5' 71-68 (CT-neut.)
WYOMING over Air Force by 12 to 15—07-Afa +2' 64-62 (OT), AFA -7 72-66
CREIGHTON over Indiana St. by 14 to 17—08-Cre -9' 79-61; 07-ISU +3 62-54, CRE -12' 86-69
Purdue over WISCONSIN by 1 to 3—08-PUR -6 65-51; 07-PUR +1' 60-56,Pur +10 72-67
BAYLOR over Texas by 1 to 2—07-TEX -7 80-72, Tex +1' 82-77
SOUTHERN MISS over Marshall by 6 to 8—07-Usm +2' 63-58
VA. COMMONWEALTH over Northeastern by 4 to 6—07-Vcu -3 66-62
UTAH over Byu by 7 to 10—07-Byu +3 55-52, BYU -7' 67-59
Iowa State over COLORADO 2 to 4—07-ISU -6 57-41, COLO -3 67-55
Dwayne Bryant
Charlotte Bobcats +11
The Lakers are coming off a huge revenge win against the Spurs and could be a bit flat tonight. The last time the Lakers came off a big win was on Wednesday. They were coming off a 105-88 pounding of LeBron and the Cavs. They responded by coasting to an 11-point win over the lowly Clippers as 16-point chalk. Charlotte is playing some solid basketball right now. The Bobcats are 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games. And believe it or not, Charlotte has actually won four of the last five in this series, including the last two in LA. The Lakers last three wins in this series have come by a grand total of just 11 points.
I'll take the Charlotte Bobcats +11
Memphis Grizzlies +5.5
Denver is coming off two impressive wins and has dominated this series (7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings). So on the surface, this looks like it should be an easy Denver win. And the public thinks so too, as 92% of the bets have come in on Denver at the time of this writing. Yet the line has swung 1.5 points in Memphis' favor. So it appears the "smart money" is on Memphis. I happen to agree.
Denver is coming off wins by 19 over Sacramento and 20 over Utah. On the flip side, Memphis has dropped nine straight both SU and ATS. Throw in the recent series history and it's easy to see why the public is hammering Denver. But this is a tough spot for the Nuggets. Off two impressive wins and with a tough conference foe (New Orleans) up next, it'd be easy for them to get caught looking past this Memphis team which they've owned. But Memphis will be playing with a sense of urgency tonight in their first game under new head coach Lionel Hollins. "I think it's a fresh start for a lot of guys," said point guard Mike Conley. "It's a chance for some people to get to redeem themselves. Everybody wants to play well for the new coach. You know, show him what you can do." They're catching Denver at the right time to do just that.
I'll take the Memphis Grizzlies +5.5
Smart Money
CBB
#712 Western Michigan +1.0
Smart Money
NBA
#707 UNDER 193 San Antonio
Vegas Experts
Northeastern at Virginia Commonwealth
Expect homecourt advantage to play a significant role this evening as Northeastern is a lousy 9 for 29 at the betting window, on the road, when playing against a team with a winning record. They are just 5-16 ATS on the road after being a road underdog in their previous game. A big reason for these road woes is that N'eastern only scores 60 PPG in away games. VCU allows even less than that at home, yielding just 59.3 PPG. They are 8-1 in CAA play and 9-0 at home.
Play on: Virginia Commonwealth
Dave Price
1 Unit on Orlando Magic -9
The Magic has lost 2 straight and because of that they won't get caught looking ahead to Cleveland tonight. Orlando is already 2-0 against the Pacers this season and cleaned their clock by 14 in its other home meeting. The Pacers have really struggled on the road, having lost 5 straight away from home to fall to 6-18 on the season. The Magic are 16-4 at home and they will be hungry to get back in the win column tonight. System: Play On Home teams (ORLANDO) - a very good team (>=+7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after a loss by 6 points or less. This system is 23-4 ATS the last 5 seasons. Lay the points!
SPORTS ADVISORS
(16) Purdue (15-4, 7-8 ATS) at Wisconsin (12-7, 7-9-1 ATS)
Purdue shoots for its fifth straight victory and a regular-season sweep of the Badgers when it treks to the Kohl Center for a Big Ten battle with ice-cold Wisconsin.
The Boilermakers’ winning streak began with a 65-52 rout of the Badgers as a six-point home favorite back on Jan. 11. They followed that with a narrow two-point win at Northwestern, but have since posted a pair of easy wins against Iowa (75-53 as a 12½-point home favorite) and Minnesota (70-62 as a one-point road pup Saturday). Purdue is allowing just 57 points per game during its current winning streak.
While the Boilermakers have won four in a row, Wisconsin has dropped four straight (0-3-1 ATS), including Saturday’s 64-57 setback at Illinois, pushing as a seven-point underdog. After giving up an average of 55.7 ppg in their first three conference games (all wins), the Badgers have allowed 70 ppg during their losing skid.
Purdue started the conference season 0-2 SU and ATS, but is now 4-2 SU (3-3 ATS) against Big Ten opponents. Conversely, the Badgers began conference play 3-0 (2-1 ATS) but are now 3-4 (2-4-1 ATS).
Including the victory over Wisconsin earlier this month, the Boilermakers have won three straight in this series and they’re 6-0 ATS in the last six, including three straight spread-covers at the Kohl Center (1-2 SU). Last year, Purdue went to Madison and prevailed 72-67 as a 10-point underdog. The pup has cashed in five of the last six head-to-head clashes between these schools.
Purdue is on ATS streaks of 12-5-1 on the road and 25-9-1 against the Big Ten, but it is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after a spread-cover. Wisconsin carries negative pointspread streaks of 1-4-1 overall (all against winning teams), 1-6 on Tuesday and 0-4 at home against teams with a winning road record. Also, the Badgers are now 1-6 SU and 2-4-1 ATS against ranked opponents.
The over is on stretches of 4-1 for Wisconsin at home, 5-1 for the Boilermakers overall, 4-1 for the Boilermakers on the road and 6-1 for the Boilermakers in Big Ten play. Conversely, the under is 5-1 in the last six clashes in this rivalry, with the Jan. 11 contest at Purdue staying low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PURDUE
(11) Texas (14-4, 7-8 ATS) at Baylor (15-4, 6-5 ATS)
Texas returns to the road for the third time in four games when it invades the Ferrell Center in Waco, Texas, looking for its 23rd consecutive victory over Baylor.
The Longhorns are coming off easy wins over Texas Tech (71-49) and Texas A&M (67-58), but they failed to cash as a 12-point home chalk in Saturday’s victory over the Aggies. Texas is just 1-4 ATS in its last five games, during which it has averaged just 67.4 ppg while shooting 39.8 percent from the field (22.7 percent from three-point range).
Baylor fell out of the Top 25 once again this week after getting crushed 95-76 at Oklahoma as a seven-point road underdog, ending a modest two-game SU and ATS uptick. The Bears have surrendered 85, 87, 92 and 95 points in their four losses while giving up just 65 ppg in their 15 victories.
The Longhorns are 3-1 SU and 1-3 ATS in Big 12 play (1-1 SU and ATS on the road), while Baylor is 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS in conference (2-0, 1-1 ATS) at home).
Texas struggled to an 82-77 victory in its trip to Waco last season, but cashed as a 1½-point road underdog for its 22nd straight win in this rivalry as it also improved to 7-2 ATS in its last nine games at Baylor. The Longhorns cashed in both meetings last year after the Bears went 3-0 ATS in three clashes in 2007. Despite Texas’ dominance in this rivalry, the last five battles have been decided by an average of just 5.4 points per game after the ‘Horns won the previous five by an average of 21.2 ppg.
Baylor is 11-1 on its home court, but only four of those have been lined games, and it has gone 2-2 ATS. Because of the weak caliber of opponents, the Bears are outscoring their visitors by 18 ppg (86-68). Meanwhile, Texas is 5-3 SU and ATS in road/neutral-court situations, putting up just 67.2 ppg (39.2 percent shooting) and allowing 65.8 ppg (41.3 percent shooting).
Although the Longhorns are 1-4 ATS in their last five overall, they’re 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 Tuesday contests. Baylor is 5-2 ATS both in its last seven games on Tuesday and its last seven following a SU defeat.
For the high-scoring Bears, the over is on stretches of 22-7 overall, 10-4 at home, 37-16 in Big 12 action, 7-2 on Tuesday, 9-2 after a SU loss and 19-7 after a non-cover. The over is also 4-1 in Texas’ last five versus winning teams and 4-2 in the last six meetings in this rivalry (2-0 last year).
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
NBA
San Antonio (29-14, 19-23-1 ATS) at Utah (25-20, 22-23 ATS)
The Spurs, who are in the midst of a stretch where they will play 11 of 12 games on the road, pay a visit to EnergySolutions Arena for the first time this season as they take on the struggling Jazz.
San Antonio kicked off a three-game road swing with Sunday’s 99-85 loss at the Lakers, ending a four-game SU winning streak and dropping to 2-6 ATS in its last eight as it fell way short as a 7½-point road underdog. The Spurs short just 37.5 percent from the field and missed 18 of 23 tries from three-point range, while allowing Los Angeles to connect on 46.4 percent of its shots, including 7 of 17 from beyond the arc.
Utah has lost three in a row and four of its last six, and it is also mired in an 1-6 ATS nosedive, including four consecutive non-covers coming into this game. One night after getting clipped by the Cavaliers in a 102-97 home loss as a three-point underdog, the Jazz on Sunday went to Denver and got steamrolled 117-97 as an eight-point road underdog.
Utah’s defense has been nonexistent of late, giving up an average of 109.8 points per game over the last five contests and allowing 107 or more in seven of its last eight outings. However, the Jazz have scored at least 97 points in 14 of 15 games, hitting triple digits nine times during this stretch. Meanwhile, the Spurs have held five straight opponents under 100 points, allowing just 88.4 ppg, but they’ve also scored less than 100 in six straight contests, putting up only 90.5 ppg.
San Antonio smoked the Jazz 119-94 as a 4½-point home favorite in the season’s first meeting back on Nov. 21. Going back to the 2007 Western Conference finals – which the Spurs won in five games – the home team is on a 9-1 SU and ATS run in this rivalry, and the SU winner has cashed in all 10 of those contests. Additionally, the host has cashed in 17 of the last 21 meetings, and the favorite is 19-7 ATS in the last 26.
In addition to being 2-6 ATS in its last eight overall, San Antonio is stuck in pointspread funks of 2-6 against winning teams, 1-4 when playing on one day of rest, 11-23 as a road underdog and 7-16 ATS as a road ‘dog of less than five points.
Although the Jazz have failed to cash in five straight overall and four of their last five as a favorite, they are on positive ATS runs of 50-24-2 as a home chalk, 19-7-1 as a home chalk of less than five points, 10-3 when playing on one day of rest and 20-8 versus the Southwest Division.
For Utah, the over is on stretches of 4-1 overall, 6-1 at home 4-1 as a favorite, 8-2 against the Western Conference, 8-2 against the Southwest Division and 5-1 when going on one day of rest. Also, the over is 6-2-1 in the Spurs’ last nine games against the Northwest Division, but otherwise San Antonio carries nothing but “under” trends into this game, including 5-0 overall, 41-19-1 on the road, 24-8-1 as an underdog, 8-2 as a ‘dog of less than five points, 44-21 after a SU loss and 7-2-1 on Tuesday.
Finally, the over is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings in this series, but six of the last eight clashes in Salt Lake have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UTAH
Jake Timlin
Today's Selection
Monday winner on the Timberwolves I am now 11-4 with my last 15 freebie winners, including 3 straight complimentary winners.
Things look good for the Cowboys to make it two straight cover wins at home as they face a bad Air Force on the high plains tonight. After all given that Wyoming is a perfect 12-0 straight at home this season and winning by an average 10.4 points per game in those 12 games thanks to averaging 82 ppg I just don’t see the Falcons keeping things close. Not when for Air Force gone are the glory days as the Falcons minus a few coaches over the years they are back to the cellar of the league a sitting at 0-5 SU/ATS this year, including a pair of MWC road loses by an average 18 points per game. Flat out given how dominate the Cowboys are this year at home mixed in with how back Air Force is this season I look for nothing but a Wyoming blowout in Laramie tonight.
All Wyoming minus the home points!