SPORTS ADVISORS
(12) Purdue (17-4, 9-8 ATS) at Ohio State (15-5, 9-7 ATS)
Purdue goes after its seventh straight victory overall and its fourth straight Big Ten road win when it travels to Columbus to battle Ohio State at Value City Arena.
Since suffering consecutive losses to Penn State and Illinois to start the Big Ten season, the Boilermakers have ripped off six consecutive victories (5-1 ATS). On Saturday, Purdue’s defense stifled Michigan in a 67-49 victory, covering as a 12½-point home chalk for its fourth straight ATS triumph. During the winning streak, the Boilers are allowing just 58.3 points per game, giving up 63 or fewer in all six contests.
The Buckeyes have followed up a two-game SU and ATS slide with back-to-back wins and covers over Michigan (72-54 as a four-point home favorite) and Indiana (93-81 as a seven-point road chalk). In Saturday’s victory over the Hoosiers, Ohio State set season marks for most points scored and most points allowed.
Purdue is 6-2 (5-3 ATS) in league action, including 3-1 on the road (2-2 ATS), while Ohio State is 5-4 SU and ATS in the Big Ten, including 3-1 at home (2-2 ATS).
The Boilermakers snapped an eight-game losing skid to Ohio State with last year’s 75-68 victory as a one-point home underdog in the first regular-season meeting. However, the Buckeyes got revenge with an 80-77 overtime win in Columbus, pushing as a three-point home chalk. Ohio State is on an 11-3-1 ATS run in this rivalry, including 5-2-1 ATS at home.
In addition to its 4-0 ATS run overall, Purdue is on positive pointspread streaks of 27-9-1 against the Big Ten, 13-5-1 on the road, 9-4 on Tuesday and 21-9-1 after a spread-cover. Ohio State is on ATS stretches of 5-2 overall (all in Big Ten play), 6-1-1 on Tuesday, 11-5 after a SU win and 8-2 after a spread-cover.
Purdue is on “over” streaks of 4-1 overall, 4-0 on the road, 5-1 after an outright victory and 7-1 after a non-cover. The over is also 6-2 in Ohio State’s last eight on Tuesday, and both of last year’s meetings between these schools cleared the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Maryland (14-7, 7-6-2 ATS) at (3) North Carolina (19-2, 9-10 ATS)
North Carolina looks to continue its ascent up the national rankings when it puts a five-game winning streak on the line in an ACC showdown against Maryland at the Dean Dome.
The Tar Heels are coming off Saturday’s 93-76 rout of North Carolina State, barely cashing as a 15-point road favorite, an effort that pushed Roy Williams’ squad to No. 3 in the rankings. During their five-game winning streak, the Heels are averaging 86.4 (47 percent shooting) and allowing 69.8 ppg (38.3 ppg). However, North Carolina has alternated ATS wins and losses in its last 10 games and hasn’t cashed in back-to-back contests since early December, a stretch of 13 outings.
Maryland halted a two-game SU and a three-game ATS slide with Saturday’s 73-68 home win over Miami, Fla., covering as a 1½-point favorite. The Terps are still just 3-5 in their last eight games (3-4 ATS), including 0-3 (2-1 ATS) on the road in ACC play. Also, in its last five games, Gary Williams’ team is averaging just 68.2 ppg (40.1 percent shooting) and giving up 76.6 ppg (43.8 percent shooting), including a disastrous 85-44 loss at Duke in the team’s most recent roadie.
The Terps have stunned North Carolina the last two years, winning 89-87 as a 3½-point home favorite in 2007 and 82-80 as an 18-point road ‘dog last year. Previously, the Tar Heels had won five straight clashes against Maryland (4-1 ATS). The host has cashed in six of the last eight series meetings, the underdog has covered in four of the last five, and the SU winner is 9-1 ATS in the last 10.
Maryland is 3-7 ATS both in its last 10 ACC contests and its last 10 on Tuesday. However, despite the debacle at Duke 10 days ago, the Terps are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 on the highway. The Tar Heels are 30-14 ATS in their last 44 contests versus teams with a winning record and 39-19-1 ATS in their last 59 after a non-cover, but otherwise they’re on pointspread dips of 5-8 overall, 3-7 in ACC action, 2-5 at home and 3-8 after a SU victory.
The over is 12-4 in the last 16 head-to-head meetings in this rivalry and 5-2 in the last seven clashes on Tobacco Road. Additionally, UNC is on “over” stretches of 5-2 overall, 6-2 at home, 4-1 after a SU win, 12-4 versus winning teams and 11-3-1 at home against teams with a losing road record. On the other hand, Maryland sports “under” streaks of 15-7-1 overall, 5-1 on the road, 4-1-1 on Tuesday and 7-1 after a SU victory.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NORTH CAROLINA and OVER
NBA
Boston (40-9, 28-21 ATS) at Philadelphia (23-23, 22-23-1 ATS)
The Celtics take their 11-game winning streak to Philadelphia for an Atlantic Division clash with the 76ers.
Playing without an ill Kevin Garnett, Boston still had little trouble putting away the Timberwolves 109-101 on Sunday. However, the Celtics came up short as a 12-point home chalk, snapping an 8-0 ATS run. During its winning streak, Doc Rivers’ club is 5-0 SU and ATS on the road, with an average margin of victory of 11.8 points per game.
Philadelphia has sputtered since a season-high seven-game winning streak, splitting its last six games while going 1-4-1 ATS. That includes Saturday’s 85-83 home loss to the Nets as an eight-point home favorite. Despite that setback, the 76ers are 6-2 SU in their last eight at home, but 0-3-1 ATS in the last four. The SU winner is 40-5-1 ATS in Philadelphia’s games this season.
Boston has taken the first two meetings between these teams this season, both at home – a 102-78 rout as an 8½-point favorite and a 110-91 destruction as a 13-point chalk. Since the start of last season, the Celtics are 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS in this rivalry, and the visitor is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
In addition to its ATS hot streaks of 8-1 overall and 5-0 at home, Boston is on positive pointspread streaks of 39-16-2 in divisional games, 5-0 against the Eastern Conference, 5-1 when playing on one day of rest and 7-2 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Philly is 4-1 ATS in its last five after an outright loss, but 1-5 ATS in its last six against Atlantic Division rivals.
The under is on streaks of 24-7 for Boston on the road, 9-3 for Boston when playing on one day of rest, 4-0 for Boston in Eastern Conference clashes, 5-2 for the Sixers overall, 19-8-1 for the 76ers at home and 9-4 for the Sixers against the Atlantic Division. However, the over is on runs of 4-1 for the Celtics on Tuesday, 8-1 for Philadelphia on Tuesday, 7-1 for Philadelphia after a SU loss and 6-1 for Philadelphia when going on two days’ rest.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON
San Antonio (33-14, 22-24-1 ATS) at Denver (31-16, 27-19-1 ATS)
Two Western Conference foes playing great basketball hook up at the Pepsi Center, where the Nuggets host the Spurs.
Denver has been idle since Friday’s 110-99 rout of Charlotte, barely cashing as a 10-point home favorite. The Nuggets are 4-1 SU in their last five and 11-4 SU in their last 15, and they’ve cashed in nine of their last 13 overall, going 4-1 ATS in the last five. George Karl’s club has averaged 106.5 ppg in its last six, including an 81-point effort in a loss at New Orleans on Wednesday, and the defense has held five straight opponents under 100 points (94.8 ppg).
San Antonio ran its winning streak to four in a row with last night’s 110-105 overtime win at Golden State, but it came up just short as a 5½-point road chalk to end a 3-0 ATS run. The Spurs are 8-1 SU in their last nine, but just 5-4 ATS. After going six straight games without scoring 100 points and averaging just 90.5 ppg, the Spurs have scored 106, 114, 106 and 110 in their last four (109 ppg) while holding six of their last nine foes under triple digits.
The visitor got it done in this season’s first two meetings between these teams, with Denver rolling 91-81 as a one-point underdog Nov. 19 and the Spurs cruising 108-91 at the Pepsi Center as a four-point road underdog Dec. 4. Prior to this year, the host had won five straight in this rivalry (4-1 ATS). Also in this series, Denver is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings, and the underdog has cashed in each of the last three after a 7-0 ATS run by the favorite.
Denver is 19-6 at home (15-9-1 ATS), including 10-2 in the last 12 (8-4 ATS). Meanwhile, the Spurs are 14-7 on the highway (12-9 ATS), including 7-2 in the last nine (6-3 ATS).
San Antonio is in ATS funks of 8-18 as an underdog of less than five points and 8-21 when playing on back-to-back nights. The Nuggets have failed to cash in five of their last seven when getting three or more days off, but otherwise they’re on pointspread runs of 5-1 overall, 4-0 as a favorite, 4-1 at home and 14-6 against teams from the stout Southwest Division.
The under is 24-8-1 in the last 33 clashes in this rivalry, including 11-4 in the last 15 battles in the Mile High City. Also, for the Spurs, the under is on streaks of 9-4 on the highway, 24-9-1 as a pup, 12-3 as a road underdog, 21-6 against winning teams, 4-1-1 when playing on back-to-back nights and 7-3-1 on Tuesday. Finally, Denver is on “under” stretches of 4-1 overall, 5-2 at home, 4-0 against the Western Conference and 4-0 on Tuesday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Cajun Sports
Hofstra Pride vs. George Mason Patriots -12
PLAY: 2* George Mason -12
The Patriot Center in Fairfax Virginia will be the site of tonights Colonial Athletic Association battle between the host George Mason Patriots and the visiting Pride from Hofstra. Both teams enter tonight’s game off straight up losses in their last game on Saturday January 31st.
Hofstra comes into this game with a record of 14-8 SU and 9-9 ATS overall. They are 8-5 SU and 5-6 against the spread when playing on the road this season. When playing on the road they average 68.2 points per game on 38.9 percent shooting from the field. Both of those numbers fall when facing a conference opponent, the Pride averages 63.6 points per game on 38.3 percent from the field. These numbers are important because the Pride is 9-28 ATS when playing on the road and shooting 34 to 39 percent. Defensively Hofstra is allowing 72.9 points per game versus teams that only average 66.2 points per game.
George Mason has played well this season with a record of 15-6 SU and a very solid 12-3 against the number overall in the 2008-09 campaign. The Patriots are perfect at home this season with a record of 10-0 SU and 6-2 ATS averaging 73.1 points per game versus teams that allow 66.4 points per game. George Mason is shooting 48.5 percent from the field when playing on their home floor and holding their opponents to 37.9 percent for 56.1 points per game. This is not good news for the Pride as they are 8-29 ATS when playing on the road and score 60 or fewer points. The Patriots are 41-17 ATS when they allow 55 to 60 points in a game and 15-6 ATS when they hold their opponent to 60 or fewer points.
Data Base research has uncovered a few technical situations that are active for tonight’s game. George Mason when coming off a road game is 46-28-3 ATS and 8-2 ATS their last 10. GM is 20-9 ATS off a SU road loss in their last game and now playing at home and 9-2 ATS if they won ATS in that contest. GM is 11-3 ATS as a conference favorite after going over the posted total in their last game. If they lost that game straight up they are 7-1 ATS in their next contest.
Our Team Performance Ratings Index projects a 17 point win by the Patriots in tonights game. Our Math Model Ratings Index also signals a play ON the George Mason Patriots with a 4 to 6 point advantage over the 12 point spread.
With significant support both fundamentally and technically we will back the host here as the George Mason Patriots take the pride out of Hofstra on Tuesday night in Fairfax.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: (2*) George Mason 74 Hofstra Pride 55
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Bradley
Conference supremacy is on the line as the Missouri Valley’s top dogs square off at Carver Arena. The Cats from Northern Iowa held serve less than 2 weeks ago with a 66-61 home win and now look for the season sweep on a floor where they have recorded just 3 SU victories in 17 efforts. The hosts have always protected their home court well, especially in this series, boasting a 5-1-1 ATS mark with same season revenge and a stellar 9-1 ATS log when the visitors check in off a SU win. The league-leading Panthers figure to enter on a winning note as they visit cellar-dwelling Indiana State over the weekend but we’ll look for the celebration to end tonight in Peoria, their house of horrors, aka the home of the Braves.
Alex Smart
Cleveland Cavaliers -10.5
The Cleveland Cavaliers (37-9) enter this home contest against the struggling Toronto Raptors(19-30) having won six of its last seven, including a hard fought tilt vs the Detroit Pistons last time out on the road. I expect the Cavaliers recent success to continue in their own building tonight, where they have won 22 straight games by an average of 16 PPG. The visiting Raptors have lost eight straight in Cleveland, including a 114-94 loss back on Dec. 9, and another one sided beat down looks to be on tonights agenda.
Toronto has lost nine of 12, and were blasted last time out, losing a 113-90 home decision to the Orlando Magic on Sunday. Needless to say, there are a lot of problems in Raptor land, and team confidence could be at a all time low, as is evident when star Chris Bosh was booed heavily by the home town fans in their last game.
The Raptors star blamed the fans, for his teams ineptness, Bosh said."The energy in the building isn't good," "We get down a little bit and everybody is like 'Oh my god.' Everything just goes to shambles and I think we feed off that too much. We can't pay attention to what's in the stands."
When players and teams start blaming their problems on the fans, than man, you have some serious problems. Cleveland is the type of team that will take advantage of this type of side, and like most championship calibre teams show very little mercy.
Final notes & Key Trends: Cleveland is 8-0 ATS this season against Atlantic division opponents , winning SU by an average of 16.5 PPG.
Projected score:Cleveland 105 Toronto 89 - Play on Cleveland
Jeff Benton
I’ve hit consecutive free plays the last two days in the NBA, including Monday’s easy winner with the Heat. For Tuesday, we’ll switch over to the college hardwood and back BYU as a double-digit road favorite at Air Force.
The Cougars finally got their act together Saturday, hammering Wyoming 84-60 as a 16½-point favorite. Prior to that, BYU had lost three of four games, all against Mountain West Conference opponents, while failing to cover in six straight lined games. Well, it doesn’t take a genius to understand that, every year in every conference, quality teams go through stretches like the one BYU just went through, and more times than not, it just takes one big blowout victory to get a squad back on track. And I think the Cougars got such a victory on Saturday and wouldn’t be surprised to see them go on a long hot streak, starting with this game against crappy Air Force.
The Falcons are 0-7 SU and ATS in Mountain West action, all as an underdog, and if you throw in a 67-64 non-lined home loss to Stony Brook, they’ve dropped eight in a row, including five straight at home. On Saturday, Air Force hosted UNLV, a team that always struggles to win in Colorado Springs, and the Rebels rolled to a 59-38 victory as a nine-point road chalk.
In fact, Air Force – which never lights up the scoreboard anyway – has been particularly dreadful offensive since conference play started, scoring 59 points or less in every game and averaging a paltry 48.6 ppg, including scoring 36 at home against Utah and 44 at home against San Diego State.
That’s not going to cut it against an offensive force like BYU, which has scored 77, 84 and 88 points in its last three games and averages 79.8 ppg on the season while shooting a blistering 50.5 percent from the field. What’s more, those numbers jump to 81.3 ppg and 52.4 percent when BYU goes on the road! Throw in the fact that Cougars have won and covered in five straight meetings in this rivalry, including last year’s 69-53 romp at Colorado Springs, and this one’s a no-brainer. Lay the chalk.
5♦ BYU
Matt Rivers
For Tuesday take the number with Rutgers.
Saying we are backing the inferior team is here is the understatement of the century but the way the Hoyas have been playing what do we have to lose!?!?
Georgetown has lost five straight games and seven of 9 and really canot possibly be the most confident of teams right now. I do think that John Thompson III's squad is very talented and will get right sooner rather than later as enough is enough but until they do so how can you not take such a hefty number back with a conference foe like this?
The Scarlet Knights are possibly the worst team in the entire Big East, I do admit that. But they did just have a blowout win over DePaul after covering in a tight game against Seton Hall and are playing with house money today as not much is really expected of them. Meanwhile on the opposite extreme DeJuan Summers, Greg Monroe and G-Town are under pressure right now as they may not even be a tournament time after the rough last few weeks. Oh and Summers is also far from healthy which I'm not complaining about.
The Hoyas are a porous 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9. I say once again, how can you not go against them here at this price!
Sports Gambling Hotline
Toronto at CLEVELAND -11
We expect Cleveland to put a beat-down on Toronto tonight at the Quicken Loans Arena.
Toronto has lost their last pair of games coming into this one, and they have also lost their last 3, and 7 of the last 8 in this series. Against the spread, the Raptors have also dropped 3 straight to the Cavs, and 5 of the last 7.
It is hard for us to imagine the Raptors staying close in this based on the numbers that we just rattled off. Also consider the fact Cleveland is still perfect at home at 22-0 straight up, and 17-5 against the spread, and you can see why we are endorsing a play on the Cavaliers minus the double-digits this Tuesday night at home.
The Raptors are just 10-16 straight up on the road this year, and we don't see them imrpoving on that mark in Cleveland tonight.
Lay the lumber, as the Cavaliers add another victim to their hit list this Tuesday night.
Play on the Cavs.
5♦ CLEVELAND
Bobby Maxwell
Marquette -10 at DEPAUL
FREE winners in seven of the last nine days and today we've got another one for you, this time coming from the college hardwood as we play Marquette on the road at DePaul in Big East action.
Marquette is putting together a fantastic season to this point and there is no way they are going to let it slip when they visit a DePaul team that is flat out terrible. Go ahead and lay the chalk with the Golden Eagles in this one as they should win this by 15 to 20 points.
The Blue Demons have dropped nine straight games and this team just can't stop anybody or score any points - a bad combination in basketball. They are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine games and they are 0-9 in Big East action. One of their covers was at Marquette back on Jan. 24 when they fell 79-70 but cashed as 16-point underdogs. But that was their highest point total in eight straight games.
Over their last five games, DePaul is averaging just 58.2 points per game and allowing 70.8. For Marquette, they are averaging 82 points and giving up 70.2 points in their last five contests.
The Eagles have won 11 straight games (7-2-1 ATS) and their only losses this season were at Tennessee and a shocker against Dayton on a neutral court. This team has beaten some monsters in the Big East with wins over Georgetown, at Notre Dame and over a very good Villanova squad.
DePaul is just 5-17 ATS in its last 22 home games and 3-13 ATS in its last 16 overall. On the opposite side, Marquette is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 on the road and in this series, the favorite is on an 11-3 ats run.
We will go ahead and lay the chalk with Marquette.
4♦ MARQUETTE
Karl Garrett
Mississippi State +10 at KENTUCKY
Tonight in college baskets, take Miss State plus the points as they head to Rupp Arena to take on the suddenly sliding Wildcats.
Billy Gillispie's team was going great guns, but they have lost their last pair on the conference trail, including a 1-point heartbreaker over the weekend to South Carolina at home.
Miss State is also off a loss, as they let Ole Miss come into Starkville, and upset the Bulldogs as the 9-point underdog!
Perhaps the Bulldogs were peeking ahead to this contest?
State has taken the last pair of series meetings, and they did cover in their last visit to Rupp Arena back in '07, falling by 4 as the 7-point dog.
With Kentucky failing 3 of their last 4 as the favorite, I will ride the points and look for Miss State to stay inside of this roomy impost.
2♦ MISS STATE
DAVE COKIN
PURDUE / OHIO STATE
Take PURDUE
Ohio State has enjoyed quite a bit of success against Purdue. The Buckeyes have a stellar 15-4 straight up record vs. this opponent and they're 15-3-1 ATS in those games. The numbers are similarly dominant in the games played at Columbus. Nevertheless, I like Purdue to beat the Buckeyes tonight. The Boilermakers are in top form right now, and it sure looks as though Ohio State just isn't quite ready to get past the top of the Big 10 food chain at this point. Purdue has been big money in the bank in conference play, covering 19- of their last 26 league games, and I'll look for the Boilermakers to get the job done this evening.
ROZ JUARBE
CHICAGO BULLS / HOUSTON ROCKETS
Take CHICAGO BULLS
The Bulls are finally playing up to their potential, on a 3-1 SU/4-0 ATS run. They were a big dog at Phoenix and won 122-111. Rookie Derrick Rose and Ben Gordon each scored 26 points for the Bulls. "We're just playing with more confidence," Gordon said. "We're making better decisions and getting stops when we need them." Houston is still trying to get healthy, on a 2-3 SU/ATS run. The young Bulls will run right at 'em and keep it close. Play the Bulls.
JIM FEIST
SAN ANTONIO SPURS / DENVER NUGGETS
Take Under
This is a showdown game of sorts, as Denver (31-16) has the sixth-best mark in the NBA, No. 3 in the West. Vince Carter calls the game a "measuring stick," and teammate Carmelo Anthony concurs. "This is a big test for us," Anthony said. "In our minds, we feel like we're one of the better teams in the Western Conference." The Spurs bring the second-best mark in the West into this game. Which means it will have a playoff atmosphere, so look for both teams to play some rugged, physical defense. Play the Spurs/Nuggets under the total.
Big Al McMordie
San Antonio Spurs vs. Denver Nuggets
Play: Denver Nuggets -5.5
At 9:05 pm, our complimentary selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over San Antone. The Spurs won last night, 110-105 in overtime at Golden State. And that win kick-started San Antonio's annual "Rodeo Road Trip," which coincides with the time that the Stock Show and Rodeo invades the AT&T Center. Overall, the Spurs will play eight straight games away from home, and tonight's game at the Pepsi Center in Denver will be one of the most difficult to win. And that's for two reasons: First, Denver is 30-13 since trading for Chauncey Billups on November 3. And second, San Antonio has, historically, been dismal when playing without rest, with a 23-44 ATS record its last 67. Take Denver.
Jimmy The Moose
Pittsburgh Penguins at Montreal Canadiens
Prediction: Over
The Penguins have played over the total in 3 straight games. Over their last 10 games the over is 6-3-1. The over is 4-0-1 in Pittsburgh's last 5 road games. In their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning record the over is 4-1-1. The over is 5-1-1 in the last 7 games vs. Norteast opponents. The over is 5-1-1 in Montreal's last 7 games. In their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing record the over is 4-0-1. The over is 8-1 in their last 9 games played with 1 day rest between action. The over is 6-1-2 in Pittsburgh's last 9 trips to Montreal. The over is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings between the clubs. Play the over.
Brian Hansen
Chicago Blackhawks at Edmonton Oilers
Prediction: Edmonton Oilers
Edmonton is coming off a 2-1 loss at home to Nashville, but I expect them to be sharp tonight vs. the Blackhawks. Edmonton is 14-7 when revenging a loss vs. an opponent; play on EDMONTON!