Nite Owl Sports
Detroit Pistons @ Miami Heat
Pick: 2 units Miami Heat -5
As is the case with many of our picks, this one is technically on Miami, but it's more against Detroit, whose season TY can best be described by the 1970s Simon & Garfunkel song entitled "Slip Slidin Away." Piston management made a big mistake dealing star point guard chauncey billups to denver in early November for Allen Iverson, who has not turned out to be the "Answer" for their offensive problems, and while replacement PG Stuckey showed promiise both in LY's playoffs and early on TY, he has not played very well for the past few weeks. Nor have nagging injuries to Rip Hamilton and Rasheed Wallace (both of whom are now playing, but obviously in some pain and not at full strength) helped. The recent result of all this is that Detroit has been a travelling train wreck over their last ten games, going a miserable 2-8 SU and 1-9 ATS in them, including (being mired in) an ugly six game losing streak (both SU and ATS), with their latest example of "ugly ball" being their 21 point loss at the "Q" on Sunday to Cleve, a team they used to dominate. And while Miami is also coming off of an equally ugly performance, a 23 point loss at Orlando, the similarity ends there, as these two teams have reacted very differently to losses TY -- while Heat is 15-10 off a loss, pistons are a miserable 7-19 ATS, which indicates two major negatives on their part, especially in a post-loss mode like tonite -- they have no "heart" and they have begun to "accept" losing as a way of life.
But the negatives for detroit don't end there, as they are 13-24 after scoring < 100 points, and 14-24 ATS after allowing points.Both teams are playing on one day of rest, a mode which has been kind to Heat backers, with Miami 16-12 ATS in that rest mode, compared to a lousy 11-18 ATS for Detroit.
Pistons used to be tough "outs" as road dogs, but not so any more, as they are just 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS in their last 5 games as road dogs visiting B teams (like Miami) and C teams, incl recent SU and ATS losses visiting C teams Chicago and indy.
So go with Miami at -5 or less to get the win and the cover.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Orlando Magic -1.5
Chicago likely hangs around for a while tonight, but when the final buzzer sounds, it will be the Magic getting the "W". Orlando's move to bring in Rafer Alston to alleviate the loss of Jameer Nelson is already paying off as Alston scored 12 points and added 9 assists in a blowout win over Dwayne Wade and company last time out. Orlando has won both meetings this season, including a 113-94 blowout here in Chicago on New Year's Eve. In all, Orlando is 8-1 against the Bulls the last 3 seasons, winning all 4 meetings in Chicago. Orlando is 19-8 ATS in road games this season and 11-2 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season. Bet the Magic.
Rocketman Sports
BYU @ San Diego State
Play:1* San Diego State Pickem
San Diego State is 11-1 SU at home this year. San Diego State is allowing only 59.3 points per game overall this year and 54.3 points per game at home this season. Aztecs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Aztecs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Aztecs are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 home games. Home team is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings. Cougars are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Cougars are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings in San Diego St. We'll recommend a small play on San Diego State tonight!
LARRY NESS
Los Angeles Lakers @ Oklahoma City Thunder
PICK: Oklahoma City Thunder
Scott Brooks moved Kevin Durant (26.2-6.6) to the small forward position and last year's rookie of the year has taken to the change, averaging 33.2 PPG in nine February games (held under 30 points just once). With the continued fine play of fellow forward Jeff Green (16.9-6.9), the excellent work from rookie PG Westbrook (15.3-4.7-5.1) and the resurgence of former Net Krstic (8.6-5.1), the Thunder have some 'building blocks.' Of course, the Lakers are already 'there,' owning the league's best overall record of 46-10. However, let's point out that while the Lakers are just 29-27 ATS, the 13-43 Thunder are an impressive 34-21 ATS, including 18-11 at home. Kobe (27.6-5.5-5.0), Gasol (18.4-9.5) and Fisher (10.9-3.6 APG) have been the three constants in LA's starting lineup but LA has surprised most (some?) by going 9-1 without Bynum. Lamar Odom has "come up HUGE" in Bynum's absence, shooting 52.3 percent from the floor, while averaging 17.2 PPG and 13.8 RPG since Bynum went down with a knee injury on Jan 31 in Memphis. The Thunder enter this game on a five-game losing streak, which began in LA on Feb 10. The Thunder have allowed 140 and 133 points in each of their last two games, while opponents have shot 53.3 from the floor against them, in their current five-game slide. However, don't forget that the Thunder 'hung around' in LA vs the Lakers in that Feb 10 game, losing just 105-98. The Lakers return to LA for a TNT game on Thursday with the Suns and then head back out on the road for games at Denver and Phoenix, so this game is hardly a major priority. Expect the Thunder to give LA all it wants in this one, before falling. Take the points.
King Creole
Byu Cougars @ San Diego State Aztecs
Play on: San Diego State Aztecs
This is a Mountain West series in which San Diego State has dominated. Now throw in a same-season REVENGE motivator and our choice is clear cut. SAN DIEGO STATE is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings versus Byu and 7-3 ATS in the last 10. And when the Aztecs have HOSTED the Cougars in this building, they are a PERFECT 5-0 SU and ATS. Let's not forget that San Diego State is already 10-1 SU in home games this season. They have not lost at home since Nov. 18th when Arizona State beat em 59-52.
What's worked for us in the last few weeks has been playing on Conference favorites with the ultimate motivation.... same-season REVENGE.
17-8-3 ATS this season: All Conference home favorites off a DOUBE DIGIT SU loss and playing with 'SSR1" (Same-Season SINGLE Revenge). Bring in an opponent ALSO off a SU loss (like the Cougars), and the results improve to 10-3-1 ATS.
A 77% winning percentage is pretty (10-3-1 ATS), but we can do better. Let's query the current ATS streaks of both teams. The host Aztecs come in on a 3-game ATS losing streak.... while Byu comes in with a 5-0 ATS record in their last 5 games.
12-1 ATS last 4 years: All Conference home favorites off BBB ATS losses (SAN DIEGO ST), with the last game also a DOUBLE DIGIT SU loss.... versus any opponent off BBB ATS wins (Byu).
8) PICK OF THE DAY
Wager type : Straight Bet(s) Select #1 : NBA Basketball
Phoenix Suns Spread -7 -110 for Game
Risking 110.00 To Win 100.00 USD
GL
Stephen Nover
Portland Trail Blazers @ Houston Rockets
PICK: Houston Rockets
The Portland Trail Blazers are on pace to win more than 50 games this season. They are a growing power. But at this stage, they still have not proven to be a strong road team.
Portland is 10-17 against the spread this season away from the Rose Garden. The Trail Blazers have lost and failed to cover in their past three away contests, falling to Golden State, Oklahoma City and Dallas.
Portland is off three straight home wins. But those were against Memphis, Atlanta and the Los Angeles Clippers.
Now the Trail Blazers have to step up against a hot foe in a setting where they have lost eight of the past nine times. Houston has won four in a row and has won seven straight at home. The Rockets are 8-1 the past nine times they've hosted Portland.
Aaron Brooks is fitting in well as Houston's new point guard. The Rockets actually are a better team without Tracy McGrady, having gone 15-6 without him.
Until the Trail Blazers show something on the road, they remain a fade away from home, especially in this spot and against this foe.
This is a one-unit play for me.
Yankee Capper
NBA
Oklahoma City +8
NCAA Hoops
Wichita State -9.5
Florida +3.5
Florida State +2.5
NHL
Phoenix Coyotes +145
Chris Jordan
Dallas at SAN ANTONIO
The offense has been a little sporadic for the Mavericks of late, but they have put up some gritty numbers thi smonth, including 116 their last time out. Heading into San Antonio for a Texas tussle with the Spurs, I'm thinking the Mavs will be looking to run and gun once again, especially since the Spurs will be sans Manu Ginobili. And the Spurs are going to have no choice but to step up offensively as well.
San Antonio is capable, trust me. It has Roger Mason, it has Tim Duncan, it has Tony Parker ... and in case you didn't know, Duncan has recorded four straight double-doubles against Dallas. He incites offense in this clash. Four of the last six meetings have gone over the posted total and I don't see anything different taking place tonight.
1♦ Mavericks/Spurs OVER
Indiana State at WICHITA STATE
The Sycamores sure could use a win tonight in Wichita. They're on a five-game win streak, and with an outside, long-shot chance of avoiding next Thursday's play-in round of the Missouri Valley Conference tournament, games like tonight have taken on new meaning. But this isn't about the 9- or 10-point underdog tonight, this is about how that pup will come in with plenty of pep in its step to challenge a Shockers team that is 7-3 in Missouri Valley games and has not lost at Koch Arena spanning back to Jan. 17.
In their BracketBuster victory over Cleveland State last Saturday, every Shockers starter reached double-figures on the scoreboard. With ISU, there are four players who have scored 10 or more in four consecutive games. Smells like offense to me. Play this one high tonight.
1♦ Indiana State/Wichita State OVER
Drew Gordon
Charlotte at PHOENIX -7
Solid Free Play winner on the Kings keeping it within the number in their 112-105 loss to the Hornets last night! Another FREE NBA winner goes tonight...
Had this been the Suns under Terry Porter, I would've jumped all over the Bobcats plus the points (although we know the line would've been tighter obviously). BUT by now we know this is not the same Suns team, scoring 124 ppg on 56% shooting over their last 5 games! Coach Gentry has re-opened the flood gates, and although their defense has struggled, it this kind of match up where the Suns can simply overwhelm their opponent.
Herein lies the problem for the Bobcats, as they average just 92 ppg on the season (91 ppg on the road), and there's simply no chance in hell that they keep pace with the break-neck Suns tonight. Seriously guys, looking over their last 10 games, the Bobcats broke the century mark 3 times, with one of those coming in OT (against the Magic), and the other two coming against terrible defenses (Wizards, Pacers)... And even then, they just barely made it past the 100-point marker!
From a match up standpoint, Barbosa and Richardson have taken over the scoring duties (happily I'm sure, as they both love the ball in their hands), while we've seen a little rejuventation in Shaq, who's out to prove he can carry this team's frontcourt without Stoudemire. Steve Nash is also resurfacing, now that they're playing his brand of basketball. While Charlotte is a strong defensive team, they simply do not have the size (Okafor is dwarfed by O'Neal), or the speed (Barbosa is a quick as it gets) to slow this Suns attack. In the end, the Bobcats have lost 3 of their last 4, and the way they're playing, its going to be a long night for the visitor in this one. Suns roll!
Take Phoenix over Charlotte in this NBA match up.
3♦ PHOENIX
Scott Delaney
We're going to play the Timberwolves/Raptors Under the posted total tonight.
I realize the Raptors received an offensive immunization shot with Shawn Marion, but my numbers tell me this one will stay low.
Two of the last three meetings have stayed low, and the Wolves are on under runs of 5-2 when they face teams with a losing straight-up mark and 7-3 the last 10 times they've been installed as the road dog in this range.
With Toronto the under is on winning runs of 6-0 when laying points in this range, 8-1 as a home favorite, 6-1 off a straight-up win, 4-1 off an ATS win and 5-2 at home.
Play this one under tonight.
Jake Timlin
Today's Selection
Still with a realistic shot a winning the regular season or at least a share of it I look for New Mexico make yet another statement with a 20 plus blowout at home tonight. After all given that New Mexico has won and covered the past two meetings, including a 15 point win at TCU this season I see the Lobos having one easy time tonight. You see for New Mexico thanks to having won 4 of their last 5 games, including winning their last 3 games at home by an average 22 points per game they now have a legitimate shot at both the league title and NCAA bid do to a favorable remaining schedule. Meanwhile, for TCU they still suck due to having dropped 7 of their last 8 games overall and failing to cover in 8 of their last 9 games. So in one of the more lopsided games of the night look for the Horned Frogs to struggle in the Pit as New Mexico post another 20 plus point home win. All New Mexico minus the points!
PICK: New Mexico Lobos
Tony Weston
Today's Selection:
The Knicks can’t quite do enough last night as they fail to cover and hand us a loss in this spot.
That’s fine as we’re getting back on the winning track tonight as we’re taking the surging Phoenix Suns at home against the visiting Charlotte Bobcats.
This is the second time these two have hooked up this season and the second time since the Suns traded Boris Diaw and Raja Bell for Jason Richardson. The last time they played, on Jan. 23, the Bobcats got over with a 98-76 outright win over the Suns, who were installed as a 4-point favorite.
But since then, a lot has changed with the Suns. First, and most importantly, Phoenix fired Terry Porter and his slug-like offense. Second, the Suns have lost Amare Stoudemire to an eye injury.
As devastating as the loss of Stoudemire will be, the Suns have seemed to work around that. Since Porter was fired the Suns have averaged 132.5 points per game and have covered in three of their four games under interim coach Alvin Gentry.
Phoenix is also 3-1-1 ATS its last five games at home and has won four of five straight up in the “Valley of the Sun.”
Now the Suns battle a Charlotte Bobcats team that has failed to win SU or ATS in either of its last two games and has not covered in four of its last six games on the road.
Keep in mind, also that Phoenix is 5-2-1 ATS its last eight games against the Bobcats and has beaten Charlotte straight up at home in each of their last four meetings in Phoenix by an average of 11.7 points per game.
The Suns are installed as about 7-point favorites and will cruise to an easy win tonight. Take Phoenix at home in this one.
3♦ SUNS
Craig Davis
Okay, so we missed on our free play on the Sooners last night but we’ve still cashed three of the last five FREE PLAY winners and hit another 25-dimer with Louisville last night for my paying customers. The run continues tonight as I give you another free play winner to show you what I’m capable of.
Take the Thunder PLUS the points tonight at home as they keep this one close. When OKC does win a game, it’s at home (winning just three times on the road all season). There haven’t been too many sellouts at the Ford Center in OKC this season, but you can bet this one will be sold out and the crowd will be live.
These young players feed off the crowd as well as any team in the NBA (trust me, I’ve seen it in person) and the last time these two hooked up, the Thunder walked out of the Staples Center with a seven-point loss. This young bunch has absolutely no pressure on them tonight and with this being the first time the Lakers have visited OKC, you never know what to expect from Kobe and the bunch.
Safe to take OKC plus the number at home tonight.
2♦ OKLAHOMA CITY
John Ryan
Orlando Magic at Chicago Bulls
Prediction: Chicago Bulls
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Chicago Bulls as they host the Orlando Magic slated to start at 8:05 EST.. Orlando shot 55% in their last game against Miami, which was a 122-99 win. They have shot over 50% in 10 games this season, but are just 3-7 ATS in the next game. Supporting this graded play is a strong MONEY LINE system that has posted a 22-9 mark making 25.1 units since 1996. Play against any team versus the money line off 2 consecutive wins by 10 points or more against a division rivals facing an opponent off a upset loss as a favorite. Take the Bulls.