Jeff Benton
For Tuesday’s free play in college hoops, we’ll take the points with Rutgers against Notre Dame in opening-round Big East tournament play.
I’ve had a pretty good feel for the Fighting Irish of late. Two Saturday’s ago, I issued my 30 Dime Underdog Game of the Year – my biggest release of the College Hoops season – on Notre Dame plus the points at UConn, and the Irish lost by seven as an 11½-point underdog. Then on Friday, I scored a 10 Dime winner on Notre Dame in its 74-55 home win over St. John’s as an 11½-point favorite in the regular-season finale.
So why jump off the Irish here, especially when they’re facing the second-worst team in the Big East? Several reasons. First and foremost, it was just two weeks ago that Notre Dame nearly lost to the Scarlet Knights, rallying for a 70-65 win, but failing to cover as a 14-point chalk. That marked the ninth time in the last 10 meetings that Rutgers covered the spread against Notre Dame, going 8-1 ATS as an underdog, including a 72-65 upset in the 2005 Big East tournament.
Also, not only have the Irish failed to cash in 12 of their last 16 games – going 4-11 ATS in Big East play – but they haven’t covered in consecutive games all season long!
Finally, it’s obvious to everyone – Notre Dame included – that the only way the Irish are going to make it to the NCAA Tournament is to win the Big East’s automatic bid. That means five wins in as many days at Madison Square Garden. It’s the longest of long shots, but if the Irish are going to pull it off, they’re going to have to conserve energy however they can. The point? If they’re leading by 15 points or so late in the second half, their starters are going to get yanked, leaving the backdoor wide open for Rutgers (8-4 ATS as an underdog of more than seven points) to cover once again versus Notre Dame.
Grab the points, and despite the talent discrepancy, don’t be surprised if this is a competitive contest throughout.
3♦ RUTGERS
Matt Rivers
For Tuesday take the points with Cleveland State.
I do fully admit that Butler is the more seasoned and superior team when compared to the Vikings but we do have some factors in our favor and certainly enough to make a small play on today's dog.
To begin with Butler is not exactly an up and down team that just blows away opponents. The Bulldogs can clamp down and generally win games in the 50's and 60's making it ultra tough when playing solid competition to win going away. Plus these teams played twice this season with Butler winning both times by a meager two points each time. The first win was at Cleveland State 50-48 and just last week Butler won at home 58-56 as the seven or so point chalk. It's always difficult to beat a solid team for a third time in a season and the way the first two games played out how can you not grab a half of a dozen or so points here!?!?!?
Cleveland State is not a team that has reached this point by a fluke. The Vikings are an extremely competent team that not only played toe-to-toe with Butler a couple of times but also went into Syracuse and beat up the Big East's Orangemen.
The Bulldogs a few weeks back lost to Loyola Chicago as the 18 point home chalk and also fell in Wisconsin Milwaukee as the favorite. They may still be the class of the conference but the gap is narrowing by the day and therefore I will gladly back this very competitive underdog and the generous number!
Tony Weston
Today's Selection:
Tough loss last night as the Magic can’t do enough to give us another victory with our Comp Play selection. That’s fine as we’re switching gears and headed to the college basketball hardwood where we’re taking Hawaii over Fresno State tonight.
While Hawaii comes into the WAC tournament on a four-game SU losing streak, having covered only once in that stretch, the Rainbow Warriors now get a shot at one of their regular punching bags in the Fresno State Bulldogs.
Including two meetings in February, Hawaii is on a six-game cover streak against the Bulldogs and has gone 5-1 SU in that stretch against Fresno State, beating it, on average, 69.8-58.6.
Not only have the Warriors been strong against the Bulldogs, but they’ve been a solid money maker against the WAC, covering in seven of their last nine games against the conference. On the flip side, Fresno State has covered only eight times in their last 27 games against the WAC.
Hawaii is 7-3 ATS its last 10 games overall and will make it 8 of 11 with an easy cover tonight. Take the Warriors easy in this WAC showdown.
3♦ HAWAII
Sports Gambling Hotline
Charlotte +6' at SAN ANTONIO
We gave you a comp play winner on VCU last night to make it 22-11-2 our last 35 comp play releases.
Tonight an underdog play in the NBA on the Charlotte Bobcats who are playing their best basketball of the season. Charlotte comes to San Antonio having won and covered their last 6 games, and while it will be hard to extend the straight up streak, the cover streak should be just fine.
San Antonio has split their last 6 both straight up, and against the spread, and they do have a rather big Thursday night home showdown on-deck against the LA Lakers.
We expect the Spurs to have their minds on Thursday's game, as they allow the Bobcats sneak inside the number in this one.
The last series meeting saw the Spurs win by a basket at Charlotte as the 5-point road favorite. We see a similar final on tap tonight, as the Bobcats are playing some very competitive hoops right now.
Play on the Bobcats.
1♦ CHARLOTTE
Karl Garrett
Georgetown vs. ST. JOHN'S +6 - at NYC
Matinee play on the Red Storm plus the points, as I have no confidence on the Hoyas at all laying the number.
Georgetown just blew a 15-point lead to St. John's a week ago, en route to a 59-56 overtime loss in Jamaica, as the Hoyas mark when favored dropped to 1-8 their last nine.
St. John's comes into the Big East tournament with outright wins in 3 of its last 5, and covers in 5 of its last 7.
The Red Storm have also covered the last two series' showdowns.
With Georgetown a disappointing 16-13 this season, and just 8-16-1 against the spread in its lined games, I have to side with the Johnnies plus the points.
2♦ ST. JOHN'S
Bobby Maxwell
Rutgers +10' vs. NOTRE DAME, at New York, N.Y.
We've given you FREE winners 25 of the last 44 days and we'll add to that today with a comp winner on Rutgers as they open the Big East Tournament against Notre Dame.
know Notre Dame is "on the bubble" for the Big Dance, and the Irish will likely win this one, but it's not going to be easy. Nothing is easy for the Irish this season. They might win but they aren't covering double-digit points.
Rutgers got a win on Saturday 45-42 over South Florida but came up just short as 3 1/2-point favorites. The Scarlet Knights failed to cover in their final three games, but that came after a 6-2 ATS run, including 6-1 ATS as an underdog.
Rutgers went to South Bend, Ind. on Feb. 25 and hung close for the entire game, but fell 70-65 as a 14-point road 'dog, improving to 9-1 ATS in the last 10 series clashes, including a 72-65 upset win in the 2005 Big East Tournament as a seven-point pup.
Notre Dame has been as inconsistent as any team in college hoops. The Irish are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 overall, 4-11 ATS in Big East action, 2-5 in nuetral site games and 3-7 against teams with a losing record.
We're not calling for the outright upset here, but we'll happily grab the points with Rutgers in this one as this one turns out a lot closer than expected.
3♦ RUTGERS
Michael Cannon
Cleveland State vs. Butler -6, at Indianapolis
Take Butler minus the points over Cleveland State in the Horizon League championship game.
Cleveland State lost both regular season matchups with Butler, but played them tight in each game before falling by two in each contest.
So why does this line have Butler favored by six?
Mainly because Butler has been there, done that. The Bulldogs can match the Horizon League record of six tournament titles with a win tonight.
That motivation is enough to carry them to the win and cover tonight.
Last year Cleveland State faced Butler in the conference championship and was crushed, 70-55. I don’t see anything changing from then to now, and I expect Butler to pull it off again.
The Bulldogs have won four straight in this rivalry and eight of the last nine.
The Vikings are in ATS slides of 5-16 on Tuesday and 3-7 at neutral sites. The Bulldogs, meanwhile, are on ATS runs of 11-5 at neutral sites and 12-5 against winning teams.
Take Butler minus the points as they gain entry into the field of 65 with the win and cover.
3♦ BUTLER
Craig Trapp
Rutgers vs. Notre Dame
Play; Rutgers +11
In there only match up this year Rutgers gave the Irish a battle and had a chance to win it late but losing 70-65 in South Bend. Neither team have been good this year against the spread with Rutgers 11-11 and Notre Dame was one of the worst in college basketball at 8-16.
Recent Trends
-Scarlet Knights are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.
-Scarlet Knights are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
-Fighting Irish are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games.
-Fighting Irish are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 games following a ATS win.
-Fighting Irish are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
-Scarlet Knights are 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
-Underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
Notre Dame the last two years have been absolutely the worst team in college basketball against the spread when leaving South Bend, IN. Notre Dame will win but just as they have done all year they can't cover large spreads due to the poor defense they play. Enjoy this winner SCORE ND 71 - RUT 66
Tom Freese
New York Knicks vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Play: New York Knicks +3½
New York is is 14-5-1 ATS their last 19 games as road dogs and they are 5-2-1 ATS their last 8 road games. The Knicks are 5-2 ATS on Tuesday and they are 20-8-1 ATS their last 29 games vs. teams with a winning home record. Milwaukee is 9-22 ATS their last 31 March games and they are 10-21 ATS vs. Atlantic Division teams. The Bucks are 3-10-1 ATS off a straight up win and they are 2-5 ATS their last 7 games vs. the Knicks. PLAY ON NEW YORK +
Greg Shaker
St. John's / Georgetown Under 122.5
With this tournament being played at Madison Square Garden, this is, in effect sort of a Home Game for the Red Storm. That is good for our cause with St Johns playing much better D here in the Big Apple. So good, that they have a 12-6 overall record, but more importantly, 9-3 UNDER the mark. They are a curious team and have shown spurts of goodness throughout the year. They did give the Hoyas all they wanted about a week ago in a 59-55 Overtime Win, a game that featured just 102 Regulation Time Points. That contest was the fifth time in a row that a Georgetown/St John game ended below the posted total that Vegas put out. I can't expect anything other than that type of activity going on today again with this being Tournament Time, and a Georgetown Squad in town that features a pace rating of 281 in this land. Both Squads play very good defense with the #18 and #74 rated D squads out of 341 Division 1A Schools. Recent Play shows that the Hoyas have not scored into the 60's their last 4 times on a court. The Johnnies have not done the same their last 3 of 4 times on a court. Shot Totals for Hoya Contests have been very low as well, often not getting even close to the 100 mark. With 2 Schools who would rather play halfcourt style of play, the venue we are at, and this being the Big East Tournament, this play qualifies for No-Brainer. That works out well for me since I like to save my brain for other activities. I would play this one down to 118.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Bobcats/Spurs UNDER 178
5 straight games in this matchup have gone under the number, including the first one this season which tallied just 170 points. Odds makers do not set lines this low when they are expecting the teams to conquer it because they are well aware of how much the public likes to bet the over. San Antonio is 14-4 UNDER against Southeast division opponents over the last 2 seasons and 8-0 UNDER in home games after leading their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half over the last 3 seasons. The Under is 7-0 in Spurs last 7 vs. a team with a losing SU record and 7-0-1 in Bobcats last 8 vs. a team with a winning SU record. Take the Under.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Western Kentucky -4
The Hilltoppers have already taken down the Jags twice this season and I can't see W. Kentucky being denied a conference tourney title to match its regular season crown tonight. The Hilltoppers are the undeniable best team in this league and their success on neutral floors is what makes them a must play tonight. The Hilltoppers are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games as a favorite and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 neutral site games. The Jaguars have made a good showing in this tournament, but here is where they run out of steam. They are just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Lay the number tonight.
Wunderdog
Georgetown at St. John's
Pick: Georgetown -6
The Georgetown Hoyas slipped during the middle part of the season, and it has left them at 16-13. They are still alive in many bracketologist’s eyes for an at-large tourney bid based on the fact they have big wins and the No. 1 most difficult schedule in the country. I would expect them to come out here with their "A" game for this one. St. John's was not a good team at the beginning of the season, and with the injuries they have sustained, they certainly aren't any better now. They surprised Georgetown here late in the season, and it was because Georgetown was a no-show off the glass getting out-rebounded by an amazing 20 boards. They outplayed them in every other aspect of the game. I look for a turnaround in this one as the Hoyas win, cover, and advance.
Matt Fargo
South Alabama at Western Kentucky
Prediction: Western Kentucky
South Alabama has made a solid run to get to this championship game but this is where it ends. The Jaguars had a very disappointing season as far as early season expectations are concerned and while they are coming on strong at the right time, they will be outmatched once again. This goes against the theory that it is tough to beat a team three times in the same season bit in this case, we should see it happen without a problem. Western Kentucky took both meetings this season and both came down to one key factor and that was free throw shooting, The Hilltoppers shot a combined 24-29 (82.8 percent) from the stripe while South Alabama went a combined 17-30 (56.7 percent). Teams are not going to win many games doing that and it isn?t getting better for the Jaguars. South Alabama is hitting a very poor 57.8 percent from the free throw line over its last five games and it cannot be stressed enough how important it is to make these free throws. Western Kentucky falls into a great situation as well. Play against neutral court teams as an underdog in a game involving two teams that are allowing between 63 and 67 ppg, after a combined score of 110 points or less. This situation is 31-9 ATS (77.5 percent) since 1997 with the average point differential being +11.5 ppg. The Hilltoppers get the sweep tonight. 3* western Kentucky Hilltoppers
-ezwinners.com-
Game: Hawaii Warriors vs. Fresno State Bulldogs
(585) Fresno State Bulldogs (+1)
Both of these teams are bad and Hawaii has already beaten Fresno State twice this season. These teams are very evenly matched and I don't think Hawaii gets the 3-0 sweep. The Warriors are only 2-5-1 against the spread in neutral court games. Bulldogs get the win.
2009 Free Selections Record 36-32 (52.9%)