SPORTS ADVISORS
NCAA TOURNAMENT
Morehead State (19-15, 18-12 ATS) vs. Alabama State (22-9, 1-0 ATS)
(at Dayton, Ohio)
Alabama State won the Southwestern Athletic Conference tournament championship by rallying past Jackson State 65-58 on Saturday, cashing as a 3½-point favorite in its only lined game of the season. The Hornets are back in the Big Dance for the third time in school history and the first time since 2004.
Morehead State closed the regular season with four straight losses, including three by a total of 12 points. However, the Eagles swept through the Ohio Valley Conference tournament, capped by a thrilling 67-65 double-overtime win over Austin Peay as a one-point underdog in the championship game March 7. That victory put Morehead State back in the Tournament for the first time since 1984.
Alabama State enters the Tournament on a four-game winning streak, and since opening the season 2-7, they’re on a 20-2 run. However, the last team from the SWAC to win a Tournament game was Alcorn State, which beat South Alabama in 1980. Although the Hornets played just one lined game this season, they’re 6-1 ATS in their last seven on the board, including 5-1 ATS as an underdog, 5-1 ATS in non-conference play and 4-1 ATS at neutral sites.
Morehead State cashed in all three games of the Ohio Valley tournament and is on an 11-2 ATS run, including 5-1 ATS as a favorite and 4-0 ATS when laying less than seven points. Also, the Eagles have also cashed in 16 of their last 21 against teams with a winning record, but they’re 2-5 ATS in their last seven on Tuesday and 5-25-4 ATS in their last 34 lined non-conference games.
The underdog is 5-3 ATS since the inception of the “play-in” game.
The over is 5-2 in Alabama State’s last seven neutral-site contests, but the Eagles are on “under” streaks of 3-1 overall, 5-2 after a SU win and 9-4 after a spread-cover.
Tonight’s winner stays in Dayton, Ohio, and faces No. 1 overall seed Louisville in Friday’s opening-round Midwest Regional action.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
NIT
Davidson (26-7, 12-16-2 ATS) at South Carolina (21-9, 10-13-2 ATS)
One year after advancing all the way to the Elite Eight, Stephen Curry and Davidson were relegated to the NIT after losing to the College of Charleston 59-52 as a 9½-point favorite in the semifinals of the Southern Conference tournament back on March 8. That loss snapped a four-game winning streak for the Wildcats, who enter the postseason in a 2-7-2 ATS slump. Davidson, which had made three straight trips to the Big Dance, is in the NIT for the first time since 2005.
South Carolina started the season 16-4, but split its final 10 games – all in SEC action – going 2-6-1 ATS in the last nine. The Gamecocks went one-and-done in the SEC tournament, losing to eventual champion Mississippi State 82-68 as a 2½-point favorite Friday. They struggled defensively down the stretch, allowing 73 points or more in six of their final eight contests.
Curry, who scored 20 of his team’s 52 points in the loss to Charleston, averages 28.4 ppg on the season on 45.6 percent shooting, he’s scored at least 20 in all but three games this year, including the last 17 in a row. Behind the sharpshooter’s stellar play, the Wildcats went 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in the Big Dance last year.
The Gamecocks are back in the postseason for the first time since winning back-to-back NIT championships in 2005 and 2006, as they went 10-0 SU and 8-2 ATS along the way, including 3-0 at home (2-1 ATS). South Carolina has cashed in seven consecutive NIT contests.
In addition to their current 2-6-1 ATS drought, the Gamecocks are mired in pointspread funks of 7-19-1 at home, 3-8 in non-conference play, 1-4 against the Southern Conference and 1-5 against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, Davidson is on positive ATS streaks of 35-16-1 on the road, 11-4 in non-conference action, 10-4-1 in postseason tournament games, 13-3 as an underdog, 7-1 as a road pup, 7-1 on Tuesday and 54-20-3 after a non-cover.
For the Wildcats, the under is on stretches of 5-1 against non-league opponents, 4-1 on the road and 4-1 on Tuesday, while South Carolina is 5-2-1 “under” in its last eight overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DAVIDSON and UNDER
UNLV (21-10, 12-16 ATS) at Kentucky (20-13, 13-14-1 ATS)
After earning automatic bids to the Big Dance each of the last two years – including advancing to the Sweet 16 in 2007 – UNLV missed out on the big party this season after 4-6 finish to the Mountain West Conference campaign. The Runnin’ Rebels are coming off consecutive lopsided losses to San Diego State – a 57-46 defeat as a four-point road underdog in the regular-season finale and a 71-51 setback as a 3½-point favorite on their home floor in opening-round tournament action Wednesday. UNLV has lost four straight on the road (1-3 ATS).
Kentucky’s 17-year run of making it to the Big Dance ended when it lost five of its last six games both SU and ATS, including Friday’s 67-58 defeat to LSU as a one-point underdog in the quarterfinals of the SEC tournament. The Wildcats didn’t have much of a home-court advantage down the stretch, losing two straight and four of six, while going 1-6 ATS in their last seven as a host. However, tonight’s game will be played at Kentucky’s former home gym (Memorial Coliseum) rather than at Rupp Arena.
UNLV has followed up a 7-1 ATS run by failing to cash in six consecutive games, going 0-3 ATS on the highway and 0-5 ATS against teams with a winning record. On the bright side, the Rebels are on positive ATS runs of 4-1 in non-conference games, 12-5-1 on Tuesday, 8-1 after a double-digit home loss and 5-0 as an underdog of 7 to 12½ points, and going back to 2005, they’re 11-6 ATS in postseason tournament play.
In addition to pointspread slumps of 1-5 overall and 1-6 at home, Kentucky has failed to cover in four straight Tuesday contests and is 1-4 ATS in its last five against winning teams and 3-7 ATS In its last 10 when laying points. However, the Wildcats have cashed in five of their last six outside of the SEC.
The under is on runs of 4-1 for UNLV on the road, 7-2 for UNLV as a road ‘dog, 17-5-1 for UNLV on Tuesday, 5-2 for Kentucky overall, 7-3 for Kentucky at home and 12-5 for Kentucky after a pointspread setback.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Washington State (17-15, 11-17-1 ATS) at St. Mary’s (26-6, 14-12-1 ATS
Washington State’s two-year Big Dance run ended with Thursday’s 64-53 loss to UCLA as an 8½-point underdog in the quarterfinals of the Pac-10 tournament in Los Angeles. Prior to that game, the Cougars had won four of five while going 4-0-1 ATS. Still, they’re just 6-9 SU and 7-7-1 ATS in their last 15 games, all in the Pac-10.
St. Mary’s likely was the last team left out of the Field of 65, despite closing the season on a 7-1 SU run. However, the one loss was ugly, an 83-58 setback to rival Gonzaga in the finals of the West Coast Conference tournament in Las Vegas on March 9. Although St. Mary’s followed the Gonzaga loss with Friday’s 85-65 rout of Eastern Washington, it wasn’t enough to earn the Gaels their second straight trip to the Big Dance.
Washington State is on ATS dives of 1-5-1 on the road, 2-5 in non-league action, 5-14-1 as an underdog, 2-10-1 as a road pup and 2-9 ATS as a ‘dog of less than seven points.
St. Mary’s came up just short as a 21½-point favorite in Friday’s 20-point pounding of Eastern Washington, making the Gaels 1-4 ATS in their last five, and including the West Coast Conference tournament, they’re 2-7-1 in their last 10 postseason games. However, St. Mary’s is on positive pointspread runs of 6-2 at home, 6-2-1 in non-conference games, 5-1 versus the Pac-10, 4-0 as a favorite of less than six points and 4-1 against teams with a winning record.
For the Cougars, the under is on stretches of 5-0 overall, 6-2 against West Coast Conference foes, 37-15-1 away from the Pac-10 and 8-3 after a SU defeat. The under is also 4-1 in the Gaels’ last five overall, but the over is 6-1 in their last seven at home and 4-0 in their last four non-conference tilts.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ST. MARY’S
NBA
Orlando (49-17, 42-23-1 ATS) at Cleveland (53-13, 42-24 ATS)
The Magic hit the road for an Eastern Conference battle with the Cavaliers at Quicken Loans Arena in a matchup of the NBA’s top two teams against the spread.
Orlando ripped Utah 105-87 Sunday as a 5½-point home chalk for its third straight win and cover, and the Magic are now 7-1 SU (6-2 ATS) in their last eight starts. Orlando has averaged 100.8 ppg and allowed just 89.2 ppg over its last five, including three road contests. Stan Van Gundy’s squad owns the second-best road record in the league at 23-10 SU and 22-10-1 ATS, with the winner going 30-2-1 ATS in those 33 games.
Cleveland topped New York 98-93 Sunday for its fifth consecutive SU win, but the Cavs fell short as a 10-point favorite for their second straight ATS setback, and they are just 2-4 ATS in their last six starts. Cleveland has outscored its foes by six points per game during its current run (105.8-99.8), including sweeping a three-game West Coast swing (1-2 ATS) last week. The Cavs maintain the NBA’s best home record at 29-1 SU and an impressive 23-7 ATS, outscoring visitors by an average of nearly 15 ppg at Quicken Loans Arena (103.3-88.4).
Orlando has had Cleveland’s number lately, winning and cashing in the last three meetings and going 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS in the last nine clashes. In the lone meeting this season, Orlando won 99-88 in January laying five points at home. The Magic have covered on their last four trips to Cleveland (3-1 SU), the underdog is 7-2 ATS in the last nine contests and the road team is on a 5-2 ATS run.
The Magic have cashed in just one of their last five starts against the Central Division, but they are otherwise on pointspread tears of 36-16 overall, 55-27-3 on the road (5-1 in the last six), 4-0 after a day off, 13-4 against teams with a win percentage above .600, 21-10 after a spread-cover and 23-11 after a SU win.
The Cavaliers are on a 35-16 ATS run in Cleveland and are 37-15 ATS in their last 52 starts after a non-cover. But they are also on ATS skids of 1-4 after a SU win and 1-4 against teams with a win percentage above .600.
The under for Orlando is on rolls of 7-1 against winning teams and 4-1 after a day off, and the under for Cleveland is on streaks of 5-0 at home, 6-2 against winning teams, 12-4 in the Eastern Conference and 35-17 playing on one day’s rest. Finally, the total has stayed low in seven of the last nine meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Detroit (33-32, 27-38 ATS) at Dallas (40-27, 33-34 ATS)
The Mavericks look to get back on track after dropping consecutive games in California when they return home to American Airlines Center to host the inconsistent Pistons.
Dallas finished a four-game road trip with two straight losses, falling at Golden State 119-110 as a 1½-point favorite and then losing 107-100 at the Lakers on Sunday, though it covered as an 8½-point pup. The two-game hiccup comes on the heels of a 7-2 SU run, and with Sunday’s spread-cover in Los Angeles, the Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in their last five starts. Dallas is riding a seven-game home winning streak (6-1 ATS) and is 17-2 SU in its last 19 inside American Airlines Center (12-7 ATS).
Detroit tumbled to lowly Memphis 89-84 as an 8½-points home chalk Sunday, and the Pistons have now alternated SU and ATS wins and losses over their last six starts. Detroit’s last five games have all been decided by either four or five points, with the Pistons going 2-3 SU and ATS in those contests.
Dallas has won three of the last four in this series, including a 112-91 rout in Motown as a 3 ½-point road underdog in this year’s first meeting. However, the Pistons are still 4-2 ATS in the last six battles, and the home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven clashes.
The winner has covered in each of Detroit’s last nine games and 30 of the last 32 overall, including 14 of 15 on the highway. Also, the winner is 23-3 ATS in the Mavericks’ last 26 contests (11-3 ATS at home). Finally, the victor has cashed in eight of the last nine meetings between these squads.
Dallas has reached triple digits in scoring in eight of its last 11 games and 18 of its last 25, but it has allowed more than 100 points in six of its last seven. Meanwhile, since a three-game stretch in which it scored at least 100 points in every contest (all wins), the Pistons have hit triple figures just once in their last five, and that was in overtime. However, they’ve held 13 of their last 15 opponents under the century mark.
The Mavericks are on a 2-8 ATS skid following a spread-cover and are just 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 games against the Central Division, but they are on a host of pointspread hot streaks, including 5-2 overall, 6-0 after a SU loss, 4-0 against the East, 10-4 as a favorite and 7-1 as a home chalk. The Pistons are on ATS upswings of 7-3 overall, 5-1 against winning teams and 4-1 on the road, but they also carry negative pointspread trends of 1-4 against the Southwest Division and 9-20 after a non-cover.
The over for Dallas is on rolls of 5-0 against Central Division foes, 5-0 at home, 13-3 as a favorite and 8-3 after a SU loss. On the flip side, the under for Detroit is on stretches of 4-1 against winning teams, 20-7-1 against the Southwest Division, 17-8 on the road and a lengthy 82-38-2 with the Pistons as an underdog, including 44-20 as a road pup.
Furthermore, the total has stayed below the posted price in four of the last five meetings between these two squads.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DALLAS
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Detroit
The Pistons travel to Dallas to meet the Mavericks in a nice spot for Detroit tonight. That's because they are playing as road dogs with same season revenge off a SU favorite loss, a role in which they are 9-4 ATS. With the Mavs in off a hard fought loss to the Lakers , look for the Pistons to hit on all cylinders here this evening.
Jimmy The Moose
Buffalo Sabres at Ottawa Senators
Prediction: Over
Buffalo comes into this one having played over the total in 4 of their last 5 games. Ottawa has played over the total in 9 of their last 12 games. The over is a profitable 7-2 in their last 9 games vs. an Eastern Conference opponent. The Senators have played over the total in 4 of their last 5 divisional games. The over is 8-3-1 in the last 12 meetings overall between the clubs. Both team's can score and both can give up a lot of goals. Play the over in this one.
Cajun Sports
Boston Celtics vs. Chicago Bulls
Play: Chicago Bulls +2
The United Center will be the site of tonight’s Eastern Conference clash between the host Chicago Bulls and the visiting Boston Celtics. We have used this Bulls teams twice recently as our free selection with success in both cases so we are dipping into that well one more time. Chicago has won and covered six straight in the Second City and their recent acquisitions via trade have certainly made a difference in their performance. With the Celtics struggling and KG expected to miss tonight’s contest along with Allen and Davis this should give the red-hot Bulls a chance to finally break through and halt that losing skid. The Celtics have won and covered their last six versus the Bulls winning by double-digits in each case. The good news for the Bulls is the defending champs have dropped four straight against the number on the highway and six of seven versus conference rivals. A check of the database shows that NBA teams coming off three straight ATS losses are 99-132-4 ATS in their next game. We will take the points here as the host finally gets the straight up win over the defending champs and continues their home-court domination.
Graded Selection: 2* Chicago Bulls 102 Boston Celtics 97
DUNKEL
Alabama State vs. Morehead State
The defensive-minded Hornets (63.5 points per game allowed) run into a Morehead State team that is 4-0 ATS against good defensive teams (allowing <=64 points per game). The Eagles are the pick in the play-in game (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has Morehead State favored by 4 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Morehead State (-2 1/2).
Game 567-568: Alabama State vs. Morehead State
Dunkel Ratings: Alabama State 47.433; Morehead State 51.940
Dunkel Line: Morehead State by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Morehead State by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Morehead State (-2 1/2)
Game 569-570: Davidson at South Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Davidson 60.206; South Carolina 66.781
Dunkel Line: South Carolina by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: South Carolina by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: South Carolina (-3 1/2)
Game 571-572: Rhode Island at Niagara
Dunkel Ratings: Rhode Island 63.211; Niagara 64.973
Dunkel Line: Niagara by 2
Vegas Line: Niagara by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Rhode Island (+4 1/2)
Game 573-574: George Mason at Penn State
Dunkel Ratings: George Mason 57.090; Penn State 65.931
Dunkel Line: Penn State by 9
Vegas Line: Penn State by 6
Dunkel Pick: Penn State (-6)
Game 575-576: UAB at Notre Dame
Dunkel Ratings: UAB 63.719; Notre Dame 70.950
Dunkel Line: Notre Dame by 7
Vegas Line: Notre Dame by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Notre Dame (-5 1/2)
Game 577-578: UNLV at Kentucky
Dunkel Ratings: UNLV 59.601; Kentucky 65.510
Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 6
Vegas Line: Kentucky by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UNLV (+7 1/2)
Game 579-580: Nebraska at New Mexico
Dunkel Ratings: Nebraska 61.453; New Mexico 71.767
Dunkel Line: New Mexico by 10 1/2
Vegas Line: New Mexico by 8
Dunkel Pick: New Mexico (-8)
Game 581-582: Weber State at San Diego State
Dunkel Ratings: Weber State 57.567; San Diego State 69.355
Dunkel Line: San Diego State by 12
Vegas Line: San Diego State by 13
Dunkel Pick: Weber State (+13)
Game 583-584: Washington State at St. Mary's (CA)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington State 69.290; St. Mary's (CA) 65.323
Dunkel Line: Washington State by 4
Vegas Line: St. Mary's (CA) by 4
Dunkel Pick: Washington State (+4)
Game 589-590: Northeastern at Wyoming
Dunkel Ratings: Northeastern 56.187; Wyoming 62.117
Dunkel Line: Wyoming by 6
Vegas Line: Wyoming by 3
Dunkel Pick: Wyoming (-3)
Game 591-592: UTEP at Nevada
Dunkel Ratings: UTEP 62.899; Nevada 63.979
Dunkel Line: Nevada by 1
Vegas Line: Nevada by 2
Dunkel Pick: UTEP (+2)
Game 521-522: Kent State at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Kent State 56.377; Oakland 63.323
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 7
Vegas Line: Oakland by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-3 1/2)
Game 523-524: Rider at Liberty
Dunkel Ratings: Rider 52.151; Liberty 51.241
Dunkel Line: Rider by 1
Vegas Line: Liberty by 4
Dunkel Pick: Rider (+4)
NBA
Detroit at Dallas
The Pistons are coming off an 89-84 loss to lower-rated Memphis and are just 5-12 ATS after an upset loss in the previous game. The Mavericks are the pick (-5) according to Dunkel, which has Dallas favored by 8 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-5).
Game 551-552: Orlando at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 120.775; Cleveland 125.919
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 5; 188
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 6; 192 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Orlando (+6); Under
Game 553-554: Sacramento at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 113.340; Atlanta 122.129
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 9; 208 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 12; 202 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (+12); Over
Game 555-556: Boston at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 121.851; Chicago 120.503
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1 1/2; 198
Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 2 1/2; 195 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+2 1/2); Over
Game 557-558: Detroit at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 115.578; Dallas 124.146
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 8 1/2; 184
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 5; 188 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-5); Under
Game 559-560: Minnesota at San Antonio
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 112.501; San Antonio 124.995
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 12 1/2; 190
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 11; 191 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-11); Under
Game 561-562: Washington at Utah
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 110.079; Utah 126.437
Dunkel Line & Total: Utah by 16 1/2; 195
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 563-564: LA Clippers at Golden State
Dunkel Ratings: LA Clippers 107.789; Golden State 118.178
Dunkel Line & Total: Golden State by 10 1/2; 243
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 565-566: Philadelphia at LA Lakers
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 113.168; LA Lakers 127.138
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 14; 207
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 10; 203
Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (-10); Over
Scott Rickenbach
Boston Celtics (-) @ Chicago
It doesn't get much better than this set-up. Yes, the Bulls have been playing well and the Celtics have struggled without Kevin Garnett. However, this one sets up beautifully.
Boston is fired up after a tough loss at Milwaukee on Sunday while the Bulls come into this one feeling a little too good about themselves after notching a big win over New Orleans on Saturday. It's the perfect spot for the Celtics to bounce back and get a statement win over a Chicago team that is playing a little "over their heads" right now. The result of this situation is solid line value as a Celtics team that still has a wealth of talent, even without Garnett, is only laying about a bucket here when they should be laying at least four points! Grab the value here on Tuesday and consider a small play on Boston minus the short number on Tuesday night.
Big Al Mcmordie
Los Angeles Clippers at Golden State Warriors
Prediction: Golden State Warriors
At 10:30 pm, our member selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over the Los Angeles Clippers. In its last game, also at home, Golden State surrendered a season-high 154 points to the Phoenix Suns, and lost 154-130. The Warriors were favored by 1.5 points in that game, so they failed to cover by a whopping 25.5 points. However, since 1990, NBA teams cover over 74% at home off a home game in which they failed to cover by 25 or more points, if they're matched up against a foe off exactly one win. Even though Golden State will be without Stephen Jackson tonight (he was suspended for drawing his 16th technical foul), we'll step in and take the Warriors minus the points.
Nick Parsons
Sharks @ Coyotes
Play: Phoenix
Value play here; Phoenix is coming off a 2-0 home loss to the Predators and I believe they offer us great value this evening! Phoenix is in fact 8-7 vs. division opponents while the Sharks are 4-5 after 3 or more consecutive unders; play on PHOENIX!
Sports Gambling Hotline
Philadelphia at LA LAKERS -10'
We will lay the double-digits with the Lakers tonight, as there is a definite home team trend that has emerged between these teams, with the host sporting a 9-3 spread mark the last 12 series meetings.
The Sixers are riding a 3-game win streak, but those wins came at home, on the road, Philly is just 14-16 against the spread this year. The 76ers are also just 4-10 against the number their last 14 overall.
Los Angeles has won their last 3, and 5 of their last 6, and they have also won the last 3, and 5 of the last 6 against Philly, covering in 3 straight, and 5 of those 6.
With the strong series numbers in their favor, and a 30-4 home mark on their side, we will side with the Lakers minus the points in this east-west tussle.
Play on LA.
3♦ LA LAKERS
Bobby Maxwell
Philadelphia +10 at L.A. LAKERS
The Lakers haven't been able to cover at home lately and tonight they get a youthful, exuberant team in the Sixers coming to town. Go ahead and grab the double-digit points and play the Sixers tonight.
Philadelphia has won three straight (2-1 ATS) and they beat the Heat 85-77 on Sunday as a seven-point favorite. They are getting some outstanding play from a starting five that loves to get up and down the court and has a point gaurd that makes the right decision. Thaddeus Young, Andre Iguodala, Samuel Dalembert and Willie Green all benefit from the consistency of PG Andre Miller. The guy just doesn't turn the ball over and makes the right, smart decision almost every time. He had 10 points, 11 assists and two steals against the Heat on Sunday.
Philly is on ATS runs of 9-4-2 after a spread-cover and 4-0 ATS in their last four as a 'dog of 5 to 10 1/2 points. Meanwhile the Lakers are just 8-19 ATS when playing on one day of rest and 1-5 ATS in their last six as a chalk.
We're going with the young, enthusiasm the Sixers bring to the table. Grab the points and Philly in this one.
2♦ PHILADELPHIA
Karl Garrett
Davidson +3 at SOUTH CAROLINA
G-Man on a 5-2 comp play run coming into Tuesday's action.
Take Davidson plus the points at South Carolina in the NIT.
Both teams had hoped to be playing in the Big Dance, but saw their bids fall short this go-round.
Davidson at least closed with straight up wins in 4 of their last 5, while South Carolina could muster just one win over their final 4 games, and just 3 straight up wins in their last 7.
The Gamecocks limped to the finish line with a money-burning 2-6-1 spread run their last 9, and playing at home hasn't been much better for South Carolina either, as they are just 7-19-1 their last 27 in Columbia.
Normally playing at home in the NIT is an advantage, but with Davidson being close in proximity, and the Gamecocks not exactly playing their best ball of the season right now, the G-Man will take any points they are giving.
Wildcats the call in this one.
3♦ DAVIDSON
Jeff Benton
Davidson +3' at SOUTH CAROLINA
Scored an easy freebie winner with the Blazers in NBA action Monday. Let’s make it 2-for-2 to start the week as we back Davidson plus the points at South Carolina.
Simply put, this one comes down to the pointspread numbers, and all of them point in favor of Stephen Curry and the Wildcats. Numbers like: Davidson is 35-16-1 ATS in its last 52 road games, 11-4 ATS in its last 15 non-conference games, 13-3 ATS in its last 16 as an underdog, 7-1 ATS in its last seven when catching points on the road and 10-4-1 ATS in its last 15 postseason tournament contests, including last year’s stirring run to the Elite Eight of the Big Dance.
Meanwhile, check out how South Carolina has been burning money of late: 2-6-1 ATS in its last nine overall (including 1-4-1 ATS as a favorite), 7-19-1 ATS in its last 27 at home, 3-8 ATS in its last 11 non-league games and 1-4 ATS in its last five against teams from the Southern Conference.
You throw in the fact that South Carolina has given up 82, 86, 96, 75, 97, 82, 85, 98 and 82 points in its nine losses this season, and you gotta believe that Curry – who knows that every time he takes the floor from here on out could be his last at Davidson – must be licking his chops coming into this nationally televised contest. Take the points with the underdog, which won 14 of 18 road/neutral-site games this season.
4♦ DAVIDSON
Michael Cannon
UNLV +7 at KENTUCKY
I am now on a 5-0 run with my free plays as the Trailblazers deliver over the Grizzlies last night!
Take Unlv plus the points over Kentucky.
The Wildcats missed out on the big dance after a 17-year run mainly because they lost five of their last six games (SU and ATS). They certainly didn’t impress at home, losing two straight and four of six and going 1-6 ATS in their last seven at Rupp Arena.
The Runnin’ Rebels didn’t finish up strong either, going 4-6 SU in their last 10 games. But I like them to stay within this generous spot on the road tonight.
Unlv is on positive ATS runs of 4-1 in non-conference action, 12-5-1 on Tuesday, 8-1 after a double-digit home loss and 5-0 as a dog of 7 to 12 ½-points. The Rebels are also on an 11-6 ATS run in postseason tournament play.
Kentucky is on ATS slides of 1-5 overall and 1-6 at home, and they have also failed to cash in four straight Tuesday games. The Wildcats are also just 1-4 ATS in their last five against winning teams and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 as a chalk.
Take the points with Unlv as they stay within the number on the road.
2♦ UNLV
Washington State at ST. MARY'S -4
Take St. Mary’s minus the points tonight over Washington State.
St. Mary’s no doubt is disappointed to be left out of the big dance, but I doubt you’ll see a flat effort out of them tonight as they will want to prove to the committee that it made a mistake by not extending them an invitation.
The Gaels closed the season on a 7-1 SU run, while the Cougars limped to a 6-9 SU finish.
St. Mary’s is on positive ATS runs of 6-2 at home, 6-2-1 in non-conference action, 5-1 versus the Pac-10, 4-0 as a chalk of less than six points and 4-1 against team with a winning record.
Washington State is on ATS slides of 1-5-1 on the road, 2-5 in non-conference play, 5-14-1 as an underdog, 2-10-1 as a road dog and 2-9 as a dog of less than seven points.
Take St. Mary’s minus the points as they grab the win and cover.
3♦ ST. MARY'S
Matt Rivers
For Tuesday take the points with Washington State.
Patty Mills and St. Mary's can respond in one of two ways. The Gaels could come out fighting after getting snubbed by the NCAA Tournament Committee or they can shrivel up like a little Girleyman and look like crap. I believe they will lean more towards the latter and will therefore grab the number with the visiting Cougars.
Washington State was not the team this season we had known over the previous few. Guys like Robbie Cowgill and Kyle Weaver left and Tony Bennett's squad was fairly mediocre overall. But the Cougs did show some signs in monster road wins at UCLA and Arizona State and have a guy in Taylor Rochestie who really played well down the stretch. State even finished the season winning four of their last six games including sweeping away the very talented Sun Devils, blowing out Arizona, shocking the big bad Bruins in Pauley and dismantling Oregon by a billion.
Just like the NCAA Tournament Committee I'm not too sure what Mills and the Gaels will bring to the table. This team was rolling earlier in the season but lately have been inconsistent and rather blah. Mills is clearly not 100% and even at home, which is obviously a solid advantage, should not just lace em up and beat up a decent enough Pac-10 squad. St. Mary's was destroyed by Gonzaga in the WCC Tournament as that was beyond ugly and is just a bit off kilter right now. In the last game they did just beat a bottomfeeder in Eastern Washington but the game was actually tighter than expected in the first half and pounding a terrible team does not show me all that much here.
Bennett will have his boys play that slower than slow offense keeping the pace slow and the game tight and in the end I will take my chances with the Cougars as they not only could cover this game but very well may get the outright!
DAVE COKIN
UNLV / KENTUCKY
Take UNLV
UNLV has been awful on offense down the stretch, which is why they're playing in the NIT instead of the NCAA. But they match up well with what might well be a very flat Kentucky squad in this first round contest. The Rebels excel at forcing turnovers and the Wildcats are among the most careless teams in the country. The game is not at Rupp Arena, as the Wildcats are playing second fiddle to some high school playoff games and one of their beat writers indicated to me that they don't seem to be very excited about playing this game. It really sets up well for UNLV, although my enthusiasm is definitely tempered by the fact the Runnin' Rebels can't put in the ocean right now. Nevertheless, with the number where it is, I will lean to UNLV to at least cover the spread.