JIM FEIST
PHILADELPHIA 76ERS / LOS ANGELES LAKERS
Take OVER
Philadelphia can puch it up the court is challenged, with Andre Miller and Andre Iguodala. They are 3-2 over the total the last 5 games and take on a team that loves to run, the top offensive team in the NBA. The Lakers can score anytime from a lot of hot hands, not just Kobe Bryant. Kobe scored 28 points and led a late 12-0 run that put Los Angeles back in control, but Trevor Ariza, Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom all had a big hand in Sunday's 107-100 victory over the Dallas Mavericks. The 76ers are a long way from home and this has all the makings of an uptempo game. Play the 76ers/Lakers over the total.
DUNKEL
Chicago at New Jersey
The Blackhawks run into a New Jersey club that is 9-1 against teams with a winning record in the second half of the season. The Devils are the pick (-160) according to Dunkel, which has New Jersey favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: New Jersey (-160).
Game 1-2: Chicago at New Jersey
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 10.688; New Jersey 12.049
Dunkel Line & Total: New Jersey by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: New Jersey (-160); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Jersey (-160); Under
Game 3-4: Philadelphia at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 11.843; Detroit 11.611
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-180); 6
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+160); Over
Game 5-6: Buffalo at Ottawa
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 11.556; Ottawa 11.998
Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Ottawa (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (-130); Over
Game 7-8: Toronto at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 10.581; Tampa Bay 11.302
Dunkel Line & Total: Tampa Bay by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Tampa Bay (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-130); Over
Game 9-10: Washington at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 11.436; Florida 11.108
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-115); 6
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-115); Under
Game 11-12: NY Rangers at Montreal
Dunkel Ratings: NY Rangers 12.074; Montreal 11.034
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Montreal (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (+115); Under
Game 13-14: Atlanta at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 12.344; Pittsburgh 12.048
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 15-16: Colorado at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 11.051; Minnesota 10.441
Dunkel Line & Total: Colorado by 1; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota (-170); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+150); Under
Game 17-18: St. Louis at Edmonton
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 11.093; Edmonton 11.346
Dunkel Line & Total: Edmonton by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Edmonton (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (-135); Under
Game 19-20: Dallas at Vancouver
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 10.950; Vancouver 11.796
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-180); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (-180); Over
Game 21-22: San Jose at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 11.073; Phoenix 11.161
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-200); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+170); Over
Craig Trapp
Boston Celtics vs. Chicago Bulls
Play: Boston Celtics -2
Don't miss this one BOS lost last game at MIL after being favored. Really need a bounce back game to help there chances to have the best record in the Eastern Conf. Check out trends below
Team records: Boston: 50-17 SU, 34-33 ATS Chicago: 30-37 SU, 34-32-1 ATS
Trends to consider:
Boston is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Boston is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games on the road
Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Chicago is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Chicago is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
CHI has been playing much better but they have not played the cream of the crop well all year. BOS might get KJ back tonight but either way they really need a win and will play extra motivated. SCORE: BOS 96 - CHI 89
Greg Shaker
Boston Celtics / Chicago Bulls - Under 195.5
The last meeting between these two teams saw the Celtics have their best shootin effort of the year as they netted 126 points on 50 of 84 from the court. The Bulls hit their shots at over 50% as well and we saw 234 points scored in that contest. That is not the norm for these Celtics and that scenerio is more than likely not going to happen tonight. Boston plays very solid D and their scoring is not nearly as prolific when they travel. In fact all Boston Road games average just 189 and all Boston Road games are 23-11 UNDER because of that. When given the chance to run, they will but that is not what they like to do. Chicago has been playing a lot of higher paced squads of late but their last contest was very similar to what we will see tonight. The Hornets are comparable to what they will see tonight and that one when well UNDER the Posted Total. Boston has lost 3 of their last 4 contests. They will be focused tonight and that means they will be so on D. I would play down to 192. PLAY UNDER.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
PENN STATE -6 over George Mason
The Patriots are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games, while the Nittany Lions are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS loss. George Mason has a fine year in the CAA as they were 22-10 overall and 15-6 in the conference. The Patriots were a solid home team this year (14-0), but on the road they went just 6-9, including just 2-4 in their non-conf road games. Some of their road games have reall been bad as they lost to Div 2 schools Liberty and Hampton away from home, while they needed OT to win at Vermont. The Patriots did win their first 2 games of the CAA tourney, but they were blownout in the championship game vs VCU, which is a team with the same talent level as the Lions. Penn State is a team that has been very solid at home, where they are 15-3 and have outscored their opponents by 8.7 ppg. Penn State has gone 7-1 and have outscored their opponents by 17 ppg. Penn state has a llowed just 58.4 ppg at home and will now be facing a George Mason squad that has had big troubles scoring down the stretch, as they have averaged just 56.1 ppg in their last 7 games. George Mason's defense has been tough this year, but the Nitany Lions have averaged 67 ppg on their home floor. Penn State should be in the big dance as they have had some impressive wins this year, so I look for them to take it out on a Patriots squad that has had some puzzling losses vs very weak teams, plus with their inabilty to score lately I just don't see them being able to put enopugh points on the board to keep this one close. Penn State by double digits here.
2 UNIT PLAY
NOTRE DAME -5.5 over UAB
The Blazers are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as a road underdog, while the Fighting Irish are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5. UAB has been a tough team at home this year, but on the road it has been a different story. The Blazers are just 9-10 when playing away from home this year overall, including just 5-10 in their last 15 road games and they have dropped their last 5 non-conference games when playing away from home. Now they have to travel to play an Irish tream that has been a very solid team at home this year. Notre Dame comes in with a 12-3 mark at home and have outscored their opponents by 13.9 ppg on their home floor..Notre Dame has won 31 straight non-conf home games, including all 6 this year and they have outscored this years opponents by 28.5 ppg. The Irish had a rough season in the Big East, but playing in that conference can only make them strong for the NIT. They are clearly the more talented team and are playing at home, plus they are happy to be still playing, even though it's not in the Big Dance. The Irish should win this one easily. Besides I couldn't not make a pick on my Irish on St Patty's day, right? Just Kidding. I really feel this is a good spot for them to get an easy win.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Nebraska at New Mexico
Terrible first round draw for the Cornhuskers as they get the team with potentialy the greatest home court edge in the entire tournament. New Mexico is 23-9 ATS L32 home games, favored in all but one of those contests while Nebraska is just 11-22 ATS in road games. Offensive is the problem for the Huskers outside of Lincoln as they average a scant 58.9 PPG on the road. New Mexico is averaging over 78 PPG here in Albuquerque.
Play on: New Mexico
Tony George
Nebraska vs. New Mexico
Play: Nebraska +8
Yes I know it is the "The Pit" at New Mexico, where they are strong, but Nebraska, despite losing to Baylor in hte Big 12 Tourney, (Baylor beat Kansas and played in the Championship Game) is sneaky good with Doc Sadler as head coach. Thye Huskers Play defense and take teams out of their gameplan. I cannot fault the Huskers late in the game either with cheap covers, hitting 80% of their free throws in their last 5 games and holding opponents under 59 ppg on the season.
While I think the Lobos will win this on a strong homecourt, NU played in the tough Big 12 this seasons and are battle tested and will not be intimidated. Nebraska beat Texas and Missouri this season and are capable of an upset here. If the Huskers play defense like they can and keep this low scoring, they should cover with ease.
PLAY on Nebraska
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Sacramento Kings +12
Off a blowout win over Portland and with Dallas on deck, expect the Hawks to coast tonight, leaving the door wide open for a Kings cover. These teams met a month ago with the Kings playing the Hawks to a 5-point game at home to cover the spread as a 6.5-point underdog. Playing Atlanta so tough in that game gives Sac Town a lot of confidence in this one. The Kings have quietly been on a covering spree, winning 9 of their last 13 against the number. The Kings are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning SU record, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU loss, and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog. We'll take the points here.
Nelly
George Mason + over Penn State
Penn State can make some legitimate complaints about its exclusion from the NCAA tournament but the Nittany Lions should have known they needed an exceptional conference season to make-up for their non-conference schedule. The crushing loss against Iowa to close the regular season likely made the difference and this could be a problematic game for Penn State despite playing at home. George Mason could not unseat VCU on top of the Colonial standings but the Patriots were clearly the second best team in an underrated league that has a great recent history of postseason success. George Mason allows just 60 points per game and although Penn State is accustomed to tough defense in the Big Ten the Lions went 1-6 S/U when being held to less than 60 points this season. Penn State is just 2-3 ATS in the past five home games and the Lions were bounced in round one of the NIT three years ago despite getting to host the opening game. George Mason has many statistical advantages in this match-up and should be the more motivated squad.
Tom Freese
Philadelphia at La Lakers
The Lakers are 20-8-1 OVER off a straight up win and are 20-7 OVER vs. Atlantic Divison teams. The Lakers are 5-2 OVER their last 7 Conference games and they are 4-0 OVER their 4 meetings with the Sixers with the last 3 meetings showing combined scores of 216, 212, and 207. Philadelphia is 4-0 OVER their last 4 games vs. winning teams and they are 9-2 OVER on Tuesday. The Sixers are 21-9 OVER with same season revenge. PLAY ON 'OVER'
Frank Jordan
UAB vs. Notre Dame
Play: Notre Dame
It is St. Patrick's Day and Notre Dame is playing UAB so you can throw the records out the window cause Notre Dame is going to win. Play the Fighting Irish
Boston Celtics vs. Chicago Bulls
Play: Boston Celtics
It is St. Patrick's Day and Boston is playing Chicago so you can throw the records out the window cause Boston is going to win. Play the Celtics
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Wyoming -2.5
We've got a mismatch on our hands here. I'll take the Cowboys at home where they are 13-3 SU and 8-3 ATS laying this small number. While Northeaster wins games with its defense, but it faces an offense averaging 80.1 ppg at home this season. That spell trouble for the Huskiers as Wyoming is 7-0 ATS versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games this season. Also, 15-4 ATS as a home favorite or pick over the last 3 seasons, 8-1 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less or pick over the last 3 seasons, and 9-0 ATS after playing 4 consecutive games as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. Lay the points.
Bob Balfe
Alabama State +3.5 over Morehead State
Alabama State may just be from the worst conference in College Basketball, but they won the regular season and the SWAC tournament which shows me consistency. Morehead State is from a better conference, but they were not the best team in it and are lucky to be in the tournament. Alabama State is bigger and more experienced and they have a center named Chief Kickingstallionsims. How much attention would that name get come Friday if they could advance. This should be a close game. Let's take the points. Take Alabama State.
King Creole
Philadelphia 76ers @ Los Angeles Lakers
Play: Philadelphia 76ers
As most sharp players know, the LAKERS are one of the few teams in the NBA that automatically have built-in VALUE when you play AGAINST 'em. Odds makers always jack up the lines on Los Angeles KNOWING that there's plenty of folks that will automatically play on them. As a result of these 'jacked-up' lines, it's no surprise that LA is actually 12-23 ATS as big favorites of -9 or greater points so far this season. That includes 4-10 ATS vs Eastern Conference opponents.... and 1-6 ATS since December 1st. So we'll be playing on the MOST profitable "anti-Laker" situation. That of the BIG fav.
Let's not forget that Philadelphia is a very good "long" DOG of their own. The SIXERS are 36-15 ATS in the last 10 years as non-division road UNDERDOGS of 9 > points. And in the last two seasons, they are a PERFECT 4-0 ATS when playing on the Western Conference road....
With bot teams coming in off multiple wins in a row, the Playbook NBA database tells the Dawg Pound Hotline that the POINTS are the play.
12-4 ATS this season for all NBA underdogs of 9 > points that are playing off BB SU wins (PHILLY).... vs any opponent off a SU win (Lakers). Since December 1st, these value Underdogs are a PERFECT 5-0 ATS when taking on a .666 > opponent (Like the Lakers).
This is the start of a long ROAD trip for the Sixers, and once again the database tells us to grab the points if these teams are playing with the confidence of multiple wins under their belts.
4-0 ATS this season for ALL NBA teams playing in the FIRST game of a 4+ road trip.... off 2 or more home games in a row (PHILLY)... with the last game a WIN... versus any opponent off BB SU wins (Lakers).
LA comes in off a SU win against Dallas, but they did NOT get the cash (it was an ATS loss as they were favored by -8.5). In the game before that, they came away with an outright UNDERDOG win against the Spurs.
1-8 ATS this season for all NBA favorites playing off a SU win BUT an ATS loss.... and a SU underdog win (Lakers).
Philadelphia has a 'No rest' situation on tap tomorrow as they will be flying to Phoenix after playing the Lakers tonight.
6-0 ATS since January 1st for all EASTERN CONFERENCE teams in the first of BB road games vs Western Conference foes... versus any opponent off a SU win.
Drew Gordon
Detroit at DALLAS -5'
Just when you think the Pistons have resurfaced, they do something only a bottom-tier team would do, lose to the Grizzlies outright at home! That's right, the same team that beat Orlando just a week prior, lost to the lowly Griz 89-84 Sunday at the Palace! Some would argue they'll be looking to bounce back, but doing so in Dallas is A LOT easier said than done!
Just look back at their last meeting, and you'll see a Mavs team that totally dominated the Pistons, winning 112-91 January 23rd at the Palace no less! What did we learn from that game? Well, we know Detroit is going to have a hell of a time stopping this Dallas offense, as the Mavs shot nearly 55% in that contest! That's bad news for Detroit-backers, because in case you didn't know, Dirk and company have been shooting the lights out of the ball, averaging 108 ppg on 47% shooting over their last 5 games!
Finally, how can you possibly trust this Detroit team on the road? True, they beat both Orlando and Boston, BUT a recent loss at Atlanta, and the fact they barely beat the Raptors at the Air Canada Centre in their last roadie, doesn't exactly inspire confidence! Look for Dallas to come out fired up in this one, as they try and snap their 2-game losing streak in their return home. While on the flip side, the Pistons inconsistency on the road pops up once again Tuesday. Mavs roll!
Take Dallas over Detroit in this NBA match up.
2♦ DALLAS