Jake Timlin
In a matchup of teams that if they played a bit better should be in the Big Dance I look for a close tonight in Southern California as Weber State says well inside the number. You see thank to Weber State being good at 21-9 straight up and 19-6 ATS the reason the Wildcats cover tonight is San Diego State is not built on blowout teams out. In fact Steve Fisher has turned to very slow tempo to shorten games this year as evidence to the Aztecs only allowing 59 points per game which prior to the MWC tournament resulted in San Diego State failing to cover in 6 of 7 games. Meanwhile, for Weber State not counting their Big Sky tournament hiccup they had won 12 straight to end the regular season while cashing in their final 10 games. So in game that is going to be much closer than expected I say take Weber State plus the points.
PICK: Weber State Wildcats
GINA
Los Angeles Clippers at Golden State Warriors
Golden State is the highest scoring team in the league averaging 108 points per game, but play pintable defense, the worst in the league allowing an average of 112 points per game. Even so, the Clippers are 7-24 on the road and one of the worse scoring teams in the NBA. Go with the Golden State Warriors at home. The Clippers have lost six straight versus the Warriors at ORACLE Arena, going 1-5 ATS.
Golden State Warriors -2½
Mr. A
Dallas Mavericks -5½
San Antonio Spurs -11
Jrtips
MINNESOTA vs. SAN ANTONIO
The San Antonio Spurs let a victory slip away last night against one of the league's worst teams in a game that they should have had and continued to add to their winning record. Tim Duncan won't let that happen again as he quoted " it is over now, it is gone and we just have to worry about tomorrow and clean it up tomorrow". The Southwest Division-leading Spurs look to bounce back from that loss and win their ninth straight over the Minnesota Timberwolves in the opener of a four-game homestand tonight. San Antonio (44-22) lost all momentum from Saturday's key 88-85 win over Houston as Monday's 78-76 loss to last-place Oklahoma City moved Houston within 2 1/2 games of the Spurs in the Southwest. San Antonio had won nine of its previous 13 games and those four losses were all against teams likely playoff-bound, Cleveland, Portland, Dallas and the Los Angles Lakers. Last night, the Spurs appeared on their way to an easy win with a 17-point first-quarter lead but scored only 34 points in the second half which was there season low in points and the Thunder didn't take their first lead until midway through the fourth. The Spurs have won eight straight over the Timberwolves, and 13 of 14 meetings since the start of the 2005-06 season. San Antonio has also won nine straight at home in the series. Tony Parker led the Spurs with 28 points Monday and is averaging 36.0 points in three games against the Timberwolves this season which is his highest scoring average against any opponent. The three-time All-Star had a career-high 55 points in the Spurs' 129-125 double-overtime victory in Minnesota on Nov. 5. The Timberwolves have already been eliminated from the playoffs and are playing the role of spoiler down the stretch. On Saturday in Minnesota, the Timberwolves defeated Charlotte 108-100.The Timberwolves shot 53.1 percent Saturday for just the fourth time in their last 23 games but that won't happen tonight against this stingy Spurs defense and a team that will play with high intensity to make up for last night's embarrassing loss and win Gregg Popovich's 1,000th game as coach on their home court .
TAKE SAN ANTONIO-11
Dave Price
1 Unit on Detroit Pistons +5.5
Off a bad loss to lowly Memphis, expect to see the Pistons hitting on all cylinders tonight, especially with revenge on the brain after a blowout loss to Dallas earlier this season. While Dallas is 24-8 at home, it is just 14-18 ATS in those games and the odds makers are overvaluing the Mavs here. The Pistons are an outstanding 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss. Pound the Pistons.
DAVE MALINSKY
Northeastern @ Wyoming
PICK: Wyoming -2.5
We think the markets got this one wrong in the early morning trading, and now that -2 has become available in a few spots with the host Cowboys it is “go time”. Why did the mistake happen? Let’s go back to an early-season ticket that we cashed on Northeastern to set the stage –
It is conference time, and that means the “real season” in places like the Colonial Athletic Association, where smaller programs know their only chance to be Dancing in March is to win the conference. That means that November/December results can be all about preparing for league play, instead of piling up wins over even weaker sisters, and it also means that the oddsmakers and betting markets can have a difficult time making early evaluations. This is just such a setting. We believe a case can be made that considering the level of the program, no team has done more to be ready for this stage than Bill Coen and his Huskies.
First, Northeastern came out of last season in decent shape, with all five starters returning from a team that exceeded expectations to finish at .500 in CAA play. To build that chemistry even more they took a trip to Canada in late summer, going 6-1 in those seven games, and then came an early schedule that had the Huskies play at places like Memphis, Michigan, Providence, South Florida and Indiana, while also winning a cross-town trip to Harvard, and hosting Rhode Island. It had them well-prepared for their conference opener at James Madison, where they picked up a key win a month ago, and now in their first game at Matthews Arena since December 3rd they are being priced far short here."
Northeastern won that game easily, of course, but note exactly what we were saying above – not necessarily that the Huskies were good, but that they were ahead of their opponent in terms of development. And that continued through the first cycle of C.A.A. play, where they sat in first place at the end of January. But then the other teams began to develop their rhythm, and Northeastern was exposed for being the mediocre squad that heads to Laramie tonight. The Huskies were beaten by the likes of William & Mary (in the rematch of that winning ticket above), Drexel, Georgia State and Towson in an ugly slide to close the campaign, and have suffered the double whammy of not only missing a trip to the Big Dance that they once thought was in their sights, but not making the NIT either. Now a mediocre squad that has only played one game in the month of March, and has not won since February 25th, brings rustiness, a lack of enthusiasm, and also the difficulty of going from sea level to one of college basketball’s highest venues, a court that sits a 7,059 feet. They are in trouble.
Accentuating the difficulties is that Wyoming will come to play. The Cowboys harbored no real tourney expectations this year, so this is a true reward, and while Northeastern has had only a loss to Towson in all of March, heath Shroyer’s squad has been battle-tested by facing Brigham Young, Utah and Mew Mexico twice in that same span. And he is open about this being a reward - “This is only the seventh time in 20 years that this program has been to a postseason tournament, so we’ve made a lot of progress. I’m really proud of our guys. I’m really happy for our seniors (guards Brandon Ewing and Sean Ogirri, and forward Tyson Johnson) that they get to extend their careers and really lay a foundation for where this program is and where we hope to go … There hasn’t been a player in uniform the last six years who’s gone to a postseason tournament, so this is a big deal for them."
It is a particularly big deal for Ewing, one of the best players in the history of the program, and leads to matchup advantages against a slower Northeastern back-court. And the Wyoming floor leader is ready for it, while also acknowledging what the home advantage is worth - “This is big. I’ve never been into postseason play, and that’s one thing I’ve always wanted to do since coming to college … They’re coming from sea level to this high altitude. We want to try to run it down on them a little bit, but I’m sure they’ll try to suck it up.”
Look for Wyoming to not only be the more enthusiastic team early, but also the fresher one in the latter stages, and with guards Ewing (83.4 percent) and Ogirri (86.1) among the nation’s best at the free throw line, they are more than capable of closing it out with a late lead.
MTi Sports
The Warriors are 7-0 ATS (10.3 ppg) after a loss in which Stephen Jackson took fewer than 10 shots and The Warriors are 7-0 ATS (13.1 ppg) at home with at most one day of rest after a double digit loss in which they allowed a shooting percentage at least 10 percentage points higher than their season-to-date average. The Clippers are 0-11 ATS with at least one day of rest off a win that broke at least a five-game losing streak and 0-10 ATS (-9.4 ppg) since April 02, 2006 on the road with at least one day of rest after a win in which they shot at least 50% from the field.
Take the Warriors.
Wunderdog
Kent State at Oakland
Pick: Oakland -4
This is a opening-round game in the first-ever Collegeinsider.com Tournament. Kent State is looking for their 11th straight 20-win season, but I don't see it happening tonight. Kent State was carried by an eight-game winning streak during the year, but otherwise was a very mediocre 11-14. They closed the season on a 3-3 note. The Grizzlies come into this one as the second winning team in school history, notching 22 in the win column. They fell just shy of a chance for the big dance when they fell to eventual Summit Champ North Dakota State by two. The Golden Flashes are severely offensively challenged, connecting on just 43% from the floor this season. That will be tough against this Oakland team that is averaging nearly 75 points per game. Too much offense and a home-court advantage will carry Oakland to the win and cover here.
San Jose at Phoenix
Pick: UNDER 5.5
The Sharks were unbeatable at home for most of the season, but have dropped two of their last three. Now they take to the road and their defensive deficiencies were made up by their ability to score. That advantage has left the building as they have now gone into an offensive slump. The Sharks have found the net just 20 times over their last 11 games - less than twice per contest. The Coyotes are just slumping period, with just one win in their last nine, and they have been lucky to find the net at all. They have not produced over two goals in a single game in each of these last nine, and averaging an anemic 1.25 goals a game. I just don't see where the scoring is coming from here as this has the look of a 2-1 game and I'll play UNDER in this one.
Rocketman
Washington State @ St. Mary's
Play: St. Mary's -4
Washington State comes in with a 17-15 record this year while St. Mary's comes in at 26-6 on the year. St. Mary's was very close to making the Big Dance after a great season but playing in the weaker conference hurt them. This is a very good team though. Washington State is 4-13 ATS this year after scoring 60 points or less. St. Mary's is 13-1 SU at home this year averaging 80.1 points per game while allowing only 62.7 points per game on their home court. Cougars are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games. Cougars are 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Cougars are 5-14-1 ATS in their last 20 games as an underdog. Cougars are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5. Cougars are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Cougars are 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a road underdog. Cougars are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 road games. Cougars are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Cougars are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog of 0.5-6.5. Gaels are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5. Gaels are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. Pacific-10. Gaels are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. Gaels are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS loss. Gaels are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games. Gaels are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games. Gaels are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5. Gaels are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite. We'll recommend a small play on St. Mary's tonight!
Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
225 - 151 run 60 %
TUESDAY : WYOMING
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EZWINNERS'S FREE SELECTION
Game: Minnesota Timberwolves @ San Antonio Spurs
(560) San Antonio Spurs (-11)
The Spurs let one slip away last night at Oklahoma City. I
don't look for that to happen tonight against a struggling
Minnesota team that has lost eight out of their last ten
games. The Spurs are 4-1 against the spread at home
against the Timberwolves in the last five meetings between
these teams and I expect that dominance to continue
tonight. Lay the points.
2009 Free Selections Record 43-32 (57.3%)
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60% winning percentage since 2003 on their free pick
maddux sports
Today's Free Pick is Notre Dame -5.5
Dwayne Bryant
Detroit Pistons +5.5
Tough spot for Dallas, as this is their only home game during a 17-day stretch. The Mavs are coming off 4 games out West and they depart Wednesday for Atlanta and Indianapolis before getting 4 days off.
That first home game off a road trip is a difficult spot for these players, as they spend time with family and friends, take care of financial obligations, etc. Simply put, they are distracted by life itself. This situation is magnified tonight as Dallas won't be home again for another 8 days.
Detroit is coming off an embarrassing home loss to Memphis, so they should be plenty motivated tonight. And if that's not enough, this is also a big revenge game for the Pistons. The Mavericks smashed them by 21 points in the first meeting this season at Detroit, and the Pistons no doubt remember that whipping.
Richard Hamilton was still coming off the bench in that first meeting, but the Pistons are playing better (6-3) with him in the starting lineup. Hamilton has regained his form as a starter, scoring 20-plus in 10 of 11 games and dishing out a career-best 16 assists last week against Toronto.
The Pistons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss, and 23-9-2 ATS in their last 34 games as a road underdog of 5 to 10.5 points. The Pistons are also 13-6 ATS in their last 19 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600.
The Mavericks are 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 vs. Central Division foes, and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Mavericks are also 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win.
Here's another trend I picked up on from this series. In the 04-05 season, the road team won both meetings. In 05-06, the home team won both meetings. In 06-07, the road team won both meetings. In 07-08, the home team won both meetings. Following that pattern, it would seem that the road team should win both meetings this season. Dallas did win in Detroit on 1/23, so Detroit could very well keep that pattern going tonight.
To summarize, it's a tough spot for Dallas and a great bounce-back spot for Detroit in this revenge affair. I'll take the points with Detroit and expect a close game.