SPORTS ADVISORS
NIT
Baylor (22-14, 11-17 ATS) at Auburn (24-11, 21-7 ATS)
Baylor’s late-season surge has continued in the NIT with consecutive victories over Georgetown (74-72 as a three-point home favorite) and Virginia Tech (84-66 as a 4½-point road underdog). In Saturday’s rout of the Hokies, the Bears were unconscious from the field, shooting 61.7 percent (10-for-21 on three-pointers) while holding Virginia Tech to 32.4 percent shooting (7-for-30 from long range.
Auburn opened up NIT play by barely squeaking past Tennessee-Martin 87-82 as a 12-point home favorite Wednesday. However, the Tigers came back Friday and blew out Tulsa 74-55, cashing as a 5½-point home chalk as they added to the nation’s best pointspread record.
The Bears have won five of their last six (4-2 ATS) since the start of the Big 12 tournament after ending the regular season in a 2-10 SU and 1-11 ATS freefall, while Auburn is 11-2 SU and ATS in its last 13 outings. The SU winner is 20-3 ATS in the Tigers’ last 23 games and 19-2 ATS in Baylor’s last 21.
Baylor lost its final six regular-season road games in Big 12 play both SU and ATS before surprising Virginia Tech on Saturday. Meanwhile, including its two NIT victories, Auburn has won seven in a row at home (6-1 ATS).
Despite a 5-13 ATS mark in their last 18 games overall, the Bears still sport positive pointspread records of 4-1 on the road, 4-1 as an underdog and 19-8-1 when catching less than seven points. The Tigers are on ATS runs of 21-7 overall (all this season), 7-1 at home, 6-1 as a chalk, 5-0 when laying less than seven points, 10-2 as a home favorite, 5-1 in non-conference action, 5-2 on Tuesday, 20-7 after a SU victory and 11-1 after a spread-cover.
The under is on streaks of 11-3-1 for Baylor overall, 6-2 for Baylor on the road, 6-2 when Baylor’s an underdog, 4-1 for the Tigers at home and 4-1 for the Tigers as a favorite.
ATS ADVANTAGE: AUBURN and UNDER
Penn State (24-11, 15-12-1 ATS) at Florida (25-10, 12-15-1 ATS)
Penn State needed a miraculous three-pointer at the buzzer to force overtime in its first-round 77-73 NIT home win over George Mason a week ago, then two days later had a much easier time with Rhode Island, cruising 83-72 as a one-point home favorite. The 83 points scored were the most for the Nittany Lions since they tallied 83 against Lafayette way back on Dec. 21.
Florida had no trouble earning its way to the NIT quarterfinals, first routing Jackson State 84-62 as a 14½-point home chalk Wednesday, then steamrolling Miami (Fla.) 74-60 as a 5½-point home favorite Saturday. The Gators have followed up a three-game SU and ATS slide by going 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five, and the winner has cashed in each of the team’s last nine contests.
The Nittany Lions lost four of their last five road games during the Big Ten season, both SU and ATS. The SU winner is 14-1 ATS in the team’s 15 road/neutral-site contests. Meanwhile, Florida is 19-1 in Gainesville, going 6-3 ATS in its last nine as a host (3-0 ATS in the last three).
Penn State is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 non-conference games, but its 1-4 ATS drought on the road is further muddied by a 1-5 ATS mark in its last six following a spread-cover. The Gators are on ATS runs of 4-1 overall, 4-0 at home and 7-3-1 after a victory, but they’ve failed to cash in six of their last eight versus Big Ten foes and four of their past five on Tuesday.
The Nittany Lions are riding “over” tears of 5-1 overall, 4-0-1 on Tuesday and 5-0 after an outright win, the over is 7-2 in Florida’s last nine against the Big 10 and 7-3 in its last 10 on Tuesday. However, the under for the Gators is on streaks of 5-0 overall, 5-0 at home, 4-1 in non-conference play and 23-8-1 after a SU win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: FLORIDA
NBA
Houston (47-25, 35-36-1 ATS) at Utah (43-26, 36-33 ATS)
The surging Rockets, who have taken over first place in the competitive Southwest Division as well as the No. 2 spot in the Western Conference standings, go for their fifth straight victory when they travel to Salt Lake City for a clash with the Jazz.
Houston is coming off Sunday’s 87-85 victory at San Antonio as a three-point road underdog, improving to 3-1 ATS during its four-game winning run. The Rockets have won 16 of their last 20 dating to Feb. 11, going 12-8 ATS, including 6-0 ATS on the road. In fact, Houston has won four straight on the highway since – ironically – a 101-94 loss at Utah on March 4, though the Rockets cashed as an 8½-point pup in that contest.
Utah is coming off a three-day layoff, having most recently played Friday when it went to Oklahoma City and defeated the Thunder 101-94, cashing as a four-point favorite to halt an 0-4 ATS downturn. The Jazz, who have played six of their last seven contests on the road, have won 12 consecutive games at Energy Solutions Arena, but after covering in the first eight of those wins, they’ve gone 0-4 ATS in the last four, beginning with the non-cover against Houston on March 4.
The home team has won all three meetings in this rivalry this season and six straight going back to last year’s opening-round Western Conference playoff series. However, the Rockets are 5-2 ATS in the last seven battles (2-1 ATS this year), and both the visitor and the underdog have cashed in nine of the last 13 head-to-head matchups.
Houston has been dominating on the defensive end of the court, holding five of its last six opponents to between 84 and 88 points, the lone exception being a 106-101 overtime win over Detroit. Furthermore, the Rockets have given up 88 points or fewer 11 times during their current 16-4 SU run, allowing just three teams to reach triple digits during this stretch.
The Jazz have won 18 of their last 23 contests, scoring in triple digits in 18 of those outings. Utah has been held under 90 points just once since Dec. 26, as stretch of 39 games.
In addition to cashing in six consecutive road games, the Rockets are on ATS runs of 4-0 as an underdog, 4-0 against the Northwest Division and 4-1 when playing on one day of rest. The Jazz have countered ATS slumps of 1-4 overall, 0-4 at home, 2-5 on Tuesday and 0-5 against winning teams with positive pointspread streaks of 13-6 as a favorite, 57-28-2 as a home chalk, 23-10 versus the Southwest Division, 9-4 after a SU win and 9-2 when playing after three or more days off.
For Houston, the under is on runs of 7-2 overall, 7-0 on the road, 4-0 as a ‘dog and 5-2 when playing on one day of rest, but the over is 8-0 in the team’s last eight games on Tuesday. Utah’s “under” streaks include 5-1 overall, 7-0 at home, 5-0 against the Western Conference, 7-1 following a SU victory, 7-2 as a favorite and 8-3 on Tuesday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Cajun Sports
Houston Rockets vs. Utah Jazz
Play: Utah Jazz -5.5
Energy Solutions Arena will be the site of tonight’s Western Conference battle between the host Utah Jazz and the visiting Houston Rockets. This series has been dominated by the Jazz for the most part with them posting a record of 47-25 SU and 38-29 ATS since 1996. For games played in Utah the Jazz have won 30 of 36 meetings SU and 20-14 ATS since 1996. Houston won the first two meetings of the season; both were played in Texas while the Jazz were able to avenge one of those in their last meeting which was in Utah back on March 4th with Utah winning 101 to 94. The Jazz last played on Friday at Oklahoma City getting the SU and ATS win 101 to 94 as a four-point road favorite. They should be well-rested for tonight’s battle against a very familiar foe. Houston just played on Sunday at San Antonio winning 87 to 85 as a three-point road underdog. The Jazz are presently on a twelve-game home winning streak but have failed to cover the last four. We expect that ATS trend to change tonight as the Jazz take advantage of the Rockets on their home floor. We know they are 21-6 ATS in home games after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread the last 2 seasons, 13-3 ATS in home games after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread the last 2 seasons and 16-6 ATS in home games after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread the last 2 seasons. Utah is also 49-29 ATS as a home favorite and 18-6 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less the last 2 seasons. Houston is 2-10 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points this season, 3-12 ATS after playing a game as a road underdog and 10-24 ATS after a game where they covered the spread this season. Lay the chalk with the host as the Jazz equal the score with the Rockets this season and get us the ATS win.
Graded Selection: 2* Utah Jazz 109 Houston Rockets 95
Jorge Gonzalez
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Play: Under 205
The Oklahoma City Thunder (20-50) has suffered a tough first season after moving from Seattle and are not looking forward to facing the high scoring Los Angeles Lakers (55-14). This young team has problems scoring and looking tired as of late. Offensively the Thunder have really struggled failing to score a 100 points in their last 12 straight games for am average of 93.3 points per game.. The under has prevailed in 10 of those games. More specifically the Thunder have seen their last eight games go under the number when they have a day off between games. The last seven games at home have gone under the number as well. The Lakers will be looking to improve their defense with the playoffs just a few weeks away. Eight of the last 11 games for Los Angeles have gone under. Don't expect this to be a high scoring game.
Marc Lawrence
Play On: San Antonio
The Spurs return home to the Alamo Dome on the heels of back-to-back home losses to host the Warriors, a team they've taken out two times this season. They are also 24-12-1 ATS of late in this series, including 18-0 SU and 14-4 ATS as a host. Look for San Antonio to get back on the win track at the expense of Golden State here this evening.
Jimmy The Moose
Washington Capitals at Toronto Maple Leafs
Prediction: Under
Washington has played under the total in 5 of their last 7 games overall. The under is 5-1 in their last 6 road games. In their last 27 games vs. a team from the Northeast Division the under is a profitable 19-7-1. The under is 6-1 in the Leafs last 7 home games. Toronto has played under the total in 7 of their last 10 games overall. The under is 4-1 in their last 5 games following a win. The under is 4-1 in Washington's last 5 trips to Toronto. The last 6 meetings overall have played under the total. Play the under.
Karl Garrett
LA Lakers -8 at OKLAHOMA CITY
The G-Man is well aware of the Thunder's impressive 17-5-1 home court spread run their last 23 games, but I am also well aware what time of the year it is, and the fact the Lakers are gunning for the best record in the Association.
LA opened their current 7-game road swing with a win and cover at Chicago on Saturday, and I am going with them to make it 2-for-2 on this their last multiple road swing of the regular season.
Oklahoma City is just 2-4 straight up, and 2-3 against the spread their last 5 games, and they have struggled matching up against LA in the past.
Los Angeles has won the last 8 in this rivalry, and they have covered in 3 of the last 4.
With the Lakers trying to secure the best overall record in the NBA, the G-Man see no let up tonight against the Thunder.
Lay the road wood with LA.
4♦ LAKERS
Sports Gambling Hotline
Houston +5 at UTAH
Last night we gave you a college underdog winner on the College of Charleston, and tonight we go with another dog, this one out of the NBA, as Houston covers at Utah.
Most definite road, and underdog-oriented series numbers when these two rivals hook up, as the road team is 9-4 against the spread the last 13 meetings, and the underdog is also on a 9-4 spread run the last 13 tilts.
Houston comes to town having won their last 4 games straight up, and they are 19-16 overall this year on the highway.
Utah is just 1-3 against the spread their last 4 games, and just 3-6 against the spread their last 9 games overall.
Based on those numbers, we will play the underdog Rockets to come up with the cover at Utah thisTuesday evening.
Play on Houston.
3♦ HOUSTON
Bobby Maxwell
Baylor at AUBURN -5'
Tonight's winner comes from the college hardwood as we play Auburn to get the job done at home over Baylor.
Baylor may have looked good in the first two rounds of the NIT, but now they have to go on the road in a tough environment and that just hasn't been a good thing for the Bears. We'll lay the chalk with Auburn in this one.
Auburn is at home for the third straight NIT game, edgeing Tennessee-Martin 87-82 as a 12-point home favorite on Wednesday and they coming back Friday and destroying Tulsa 74-55 as a 5 1/2-point home chalk. The Tigers are 11-2 SU and ATS in its last 13 outings.
The Bears lost their final six regular-season road games in Big 12 play, both SU and ATS. They ended the season on a 2-10 SU and 1-11 ATS freefall.
On the opposite side, Auburn has won seven straight at home and gone 6-1 ATS in the process. The Tigers are on ATS runs of 21-7 ATS, 6-1 as a favorite, 5-0 when laying less than seven points, 10-2 as a home chalk, 11-1 after a spread-cover and 20-7 after a straight-up victory.
We like the Tigers today and they'll get this one by 10.
3♦ AUBURN
DAVE COKIN
ATLANTA THRASHERS / MONTREAL CANADIENS
Take ATLANTA THRASHERS
The Montreal Canadiens are an absolute mess right now. The Habs have had major off the ice distractions, their goaltending has been terrible, and they're winless in their last five games. Atlanta is way out of the playoff chase, but the Thrashers are playing hard and have actually been a pretty good team the last few weeks. Considering Montreal's miserable current form, I'd lean to the Thrashers at the big dog odds tonight.
JIM FEIST
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS / SAN ANTONIO SPURS
Take SAN ANTONIO SPURS
San Antonio is not in a good mood after two straight losses, on an 87-85 loss to the Houston Rockets that put them in second place in the Southwest division. Three of the their last four games have been losses by 3, 2 and 3 points. Golden State is in the middle of a 4-game road trip and doesn't play well against good defensive teams, losing by double digits to the Hornets and by 17 at Detroit. The home team needs a big win....and gets it. Play the Spurs.
Tom Freese
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Play: Los Angeles Lakers -8
The Lakers are 11-5 ATS their last 16 road games and they are 6-2 ATS when playing with two days of rest. The Lakers are 5-1 ATS as road favorites of 5.0 to 10.5 points and they are 4-1 ATS their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Oklahoma City has lost 6 straight games vs. the Lakers by an average of 12.5 points a game. The Thunder are 2-8 ATS their last 10 games vs. Kobe and company. PLAY ON LA LAKERS -
Matt Fargo
Golden State vs. San Antonio
Play: Golden State +10½
San Antonio has won 20 straight home meetings against the Warriors and there really is no reason to believe that it will end here. Or is there? The Spurs are not playing good right now as they have dropped two straight games at home and even though those came against the Celtics and Rockets, those losses can linger. Especially when it is tough to get up for the next opponent and what real incentive is there for the Spurs to get up for Golden St.? San Antonio has a pretty big game in Atlanta tomorrow night and that means one thing. Tim Duncan sits either tonight or tomorrow night. It is still undecided on which way the Spurs will go on that and while it is more likely for him to sit tomorrow in the second of the back-to-back set, it could very well be tonight with a much tougher opponent on deck for tomorrow. Either way, we get a good number on a team that is playing pretty well. Golden St. has won four of its last seven games and while it has lost five straight games on the road, the last three have been quite competitive. The Warriors got off to a horrible start this season but since January 11th, they have gone 15-17 which is far from playoff material but considering the start to the season was 10-28, this has been a huge turnaround. It is no coincidence that Golden St. has played better when Monta Ellis is in the lineup. The Warriors are 11-9 in the 20 games he has played in so they are no doubt a better ballclub when he is in the lineup. The Warriors lost by 35 points in the first meeting against the Spurs this year but Ellis was not playing. They lost in overtime at home in the second meeting and that was him having just an average game. It is also important to note that San Antonio had both Manu Ginobili and Tim Duncan on the court and they scored 32 points each. The Spurs are without Ginobili and could be without Duncan this time around. Golden St. falls into a very solid situation. Play against favorites of 10 or more points that are averaging between 92 and 98 ppg going up against a team that is allowing more than 102 ppg, after a game where both teams scored 90 points or less. This situation is 25-6 ATS (80.6 percent) since 1996. The philosophy is simple in that a low scoring game could be expected and that always favors the underdog, especially when that underdog is receiving double-digits. Also, Golden St. is 19-10 ATS revenging a same season loss against an opponent this season. 3* Golden St. Warriors
VEGAS EXPERTS
Baylor at Auburn
Baylor already owns one outright dog win in this tournament, but will find the going much tougher in Auburn against a Tigers team that is 10-2 ATS when favored on their home floor this season and 8-2 ATS in out of conference play. They dominated first round opponent Tulsa by a score of 74-55 which sets them up here as we note that they are 10-1 ATS this season when coming off a double-digit win. Prior to Round 1 win, Baylor has lost four straight true road games by 7+ pts.
Play on: Auburn
LT Profits
Utah Jazz -5.5
The Utah Jazz are one of the best home teams in the NBA, and we look for them to show off that fact in front of a national television audience when they host the Houston Rockets on TNT tonight.
The Jazz have now won 12 straight games at home straight up, which improves them to 29-6 SU at home for the season with an impressive average winning margin of +10.1 points here. Now granted, they have actually lost their last four home contests against the spread, but this in only because of inflated spreads as their smallest winning margin during this skid is six points, which would still be good enough to cover this game.
The Rockets have to guard against a letdown after an exhilarating, last-second 87-85 road win Sunday vs. their biggest rival, the San Antonio Spurs. Houston has also lost their last three visits to Utah by an average of 11.0 points. They did cover the number here in a 101-94 defeat as eight-point underdogs on their last visit in January, but an identical losing margin would not be good enough to cover this deflated spread.
All things considered, this seems like excellent line value for the Jazz at home.
Pick: Jazz -5.5
Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
229 - 155 run 60 %
Tues Penn St + 11
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maddux sports - 60% winning run on their free picks since 2003
Today's Free Pick is Utah -5.5
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EZWINNERS'S FREE SELECTION
Game: Houston Rockets @ Utah Jazz
(648) Utah Jazz (-5)
The Rockets are coming off of a nice win on Sunday at San Antonio,
but they are going against a Jazz team that has defeated them by an
average of 15 points in the last two meetings in Salt Lake City. Utah
is also 9-2 against the spread when playing with three or more days
rest. Lay the points.
2009 Free Selections Record 43-39 (52.4%)
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