Drew Gordon
Penn State at FLORIDA -10'
Let me be the one to tell you: Lay the points, as the Gators have been nasty in Gainesville, going 19-1 SU & 7-7 ATS, including Friday's dominant win over a very good Hurricanes team 74-60! More of the same tonight, and here's why:
The Lions on the other hand, have been nothing but average on the road this season, with blowout road losses like Minnesota (20-point loss), Michigan (20-point loss), and Ohio State (14-point loss) making it very difficult to side with them in this one. Problem stems from their offense, which while efficient at home, has had tremendous issues in hostile territory, and it won't get any easier tonight with Florida allowing 58 ppg on 41% shooting over their last 5 games!
Also, speaking of the Lions offense, they're in big trouble if their two injured stars are less than 100% tonight. Of the two, Battle & Cornley, it look like Battle is most likely to play, but a hip pointer is never an easy injury to play with. Cornley meanwhile is listed as questionable, and his possible absence (even if he plays, it remains to be seen how effective he can be) will severly hurt the Lions chances tonight. Florida has a couple solid big bodies, and without Cornley, they will own the paint.
Finally, the biggest mismatch is the Florida offense, led by Calathes, against a good, but not great Lions defense. Penn State has seemingly lost its focus on the defensive end of late, allowing 70 ppg on 45% shooting over their last five, and a trip to Gainesville is the LAST thing they need! Nick Calathes has been amazing, and with Tyus and Werner playing well, the Gators are fully equipped to expose a road-weary Nittany Lions squad in this one. Gators roll!
Take Florida over Penn State in this college hoops match up.
3♦ FLORIDA
Matt Rivers
11-4 comp play run after the loser on Davidson.
For Tuesday take the points with the Rockets.
This is a bottom of the barrell play for sure as the slate is small and not very good but gun to my head I'll back the red hot Rockets here.
Utah at home is as good as they come. For years and years the Jazz always won game after game after game on their home court. Nothing has slowed down even with the retirements of John Stockton and Karl Malone but the way Houston has been playing I'll take any points I can get with the them right now.
Yao Ming is an unstoppable force and Ron Artest has been playing extremely spirited ball of late. Losing Tracy McGrady did anything but end the team's season as these guys have really gelled and played total winning hoops of late just capped off by the great win in San Antonio against what is still a borderline great Spurs team.
For Rick Adelman to have guided his team to a 47-25 mark is unreal. Guys like Luis Scola and Aaron Brooks have really stepped it up and to be in first place this late in the season without their big gun is a tribute to all.
Houston has won four in a row and a whopping 16 of 20. No doubt Carlos Boozer, Deron Williams and the rest of the Jazz could come out with a win and cover tonight but the way today's visitors have been I can't help but scoop up the decent enough number.
Jake Timlin
First off I must tip my cap to Baylor as while they have been playing great over the past few weeks I see their season coming to an end tonight as Auburn takes care of business at home. Not when the Tigers are great at home at 18-3 straight up and 11-3 against the spread. In fact thanks to Auburn sitting at 21-7 ATS on the year it’s tough to imagine Baylor traveling for the second time this tournament and winning due to the Bears being just 1-6 straight up on the highway over their last 7 games. Meanwhile, back to Auburn they have won their seven games at home and with the straight up winning 20-3 ATS in the Tigers last 23 games all the signs point toward a home win and cover tonight for Auburn. With that take the Tigers minus the points as they advance to the semifinals.
PICK: Auburn Tigers
Craig Davis
Well, it wasn't a thing of beauty last night as I had something happen to me that's never happened before... two pushes and a win. My top play on Vermont was in the bag until the final seconds of overtime. The T'Wolves suffered the same fate, failing to score in the final seconds for a cover. Even as ugly as those two finishes were, we still profited for our clients going 1-0-2 with our dime plays and 1-0 with our free play on St. Mary's.
Tonight we go to the NBA hardwood for an easy free play winner on OKC at home. The last time the Thunder hosted the Lakers, they fell apart in the fourth quarter and failed to cover by a few points. That's not going to be the case tonight as OKC is at full strength, with Kevin Durant, Jeff Green, Russell Westbrook and the rest of the crew playing better basketball. The Ford Center will be sold out because the Lakers are in town, and you can be the crowd will be lively from the opening tip.
The Thunder have covered nine of their last ten when grabbing between five and 10 points at home and they've covered 13 of their last 17 (including one push) at home vs. a team with a winning record. Vegas tends to over-estimate the Lakers because they know people will bet on them, pretty much no matter what the number is. We're glad to take the eight points as OKC pushes the Lakers for the SU win tonight.
2♦ OKLAHOMA CITY