SPORTS ADVISORS
NIT
(at New York)
Baylor (23-14, 12-17 ATS) vs. San Diego State (26-9, 18-12-1 ATS)
Baylor advanced to Madison Square Garden for the NIT semifinals with victories over Georgetown (74-72), Virginia Tech (84-66) and Auburn (74-72), going 2-1 ATS. After narrowly edging Georgetown at home, the Bears went on the road and upset the Hokies and Tigers, with the last-second win at Auburn coming a week ago tonight.
Baylor ended the regular season in a 2-10 SU and 1-11 ATS funk – all against Big 12 opponents – but has since won six of seven both SU and ATS, with the only blemish being a 73-60 loss to Missouri as a 6½-point underdog in the Big 12 tournament championship game. Four of the team’s last five wins have come by a total of 17 points.
As one of the tournament’s No. 1 seeds, San Diego State hosted all three of its NIT games. After two blowout wins over Weber State (65-49 as an 11½-point favorite) and Kansas State (70-52 as a five-point chalk), the Aztecs on Wednesday jumped out to a large lead against No. 2-seeded St. Mary’s and held on for a 70-66 quarterfinal victory, cashing as a 3½-point home chalk.
The Aztecs, one of the last teams left out of the Big Dance, are on an 8-1 SU run and they’ve followed up an 0-6 ATS drought by cashing in six of their last seven contests. SDSU’s only defeat in the last five weeks was a last-second 52-50 loss to Utah in the Mountain West Conference tournament title game in Las Vegas on March 14.
These teams feature contrasting styles. Baylor averages 75.5 points per game on 46.4 percent shooting – including 73.6 ppg on 50.8 percent shooting in the last five games – while San Diego State gives up just 59.8 ppg on 41.2 percent shooting, including 56.2 ppg and 36.7 percent in the last five.
San Diego State is 5-2 on neutral courts this season (3-2-1 ATS in lined contests), while the Bears are 5-1 SU and ATS at neutral sites (the only loss coming to Missouri in the Big 12 tournament title game).
The Bears are on ATS runs of 13-3 at neutral sites and 4-1 after a victory, but they’ve failed to cash in seven straight games when laying less than seven points. San Diego State sports positive pointspread runs of 6-1 overall (all versus winning teams), 5-0 in non-conference play, 5-0 against the Big 12 and 8-2 after a spread-over, but the Aztecs are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 at neutral sites and 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 as a ‘dog of less than seven points.
For Baylor, the under is on streaks of 12-3-1 overall and 5-1-1 as a favorite. Meanwhile, San Diego State is in the midst of several “under” runs, including 39-16 overall, 35-16 in non-conference play, 4-1 against the Big 12, 7-1 at neutral sites, 11-3 as an underdog and 4-1 on Tuesday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Notre Dame (21-14, 12-18 ATS) vs. Penn State (25-11, 16-12-1 ATS)
After a pair of close home wins over UAB (70-64) and New Mexico (70-68), Notre Dame had a relatively easy time with Kentucky in Wednesday’s quarterfinals, rolling 77-67 as a 3½-point home favorite to advance to New York. The Fighting Irish, whose year was derailed by a seven-game midseason losing skid, have won nine of their last 13, going just 7-6 ATS. In fact, they’ve covered in consecutive outings just once the entire season.
Penn State, which was one of the last teams left out of the NCAA Tournament, needed a miracle three-pointer against George Mason to force overtime in its opening-round NIT contest. The Nittany Lions went on to win that game 77-73 as a 5½-point favorite, then got past Rhode Island (83-72 as a one-point home chalk) and Florida (71-62 as a 10½-point underdog) to punch their ticket to Madison Square Garden. Going back to Feb. 14, Penn State is on an 8-3 run (6-5 ATS).
Penn State is shooting 48 percent in the NIT and holding the opposition to 43.7 percent, while the Irish are connecting on just 41.4 percent of their field goals in this event and allowing opponents to shoot 43.9 percent
The Nittany Lions have split their four neutral-site games this season both SU and ATS, with the winner cashing in each contest. Likewise, Notre Dame has split six games at neutral venues this season both SU and ATS, with the winner covering the spread each time.
Notre Dame continues to carry negative ATS trends of 3-8 after a SU win, 7-20 after an ATS triumph and 5-12 against teams with a winning record, but the Irish have cashed in seven consecutive Tuesday contests and four of their last five as a favorite. Penn State is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 non-league outings, but 1-4-1 ATS In its last six against the Big East and 5-17-1 ATS in its last 23 as an underdog of less than seven points.
For the Irish, the “under” is on stretches of 8-1 overall, 8-3 at neutral sites 7-1 after a SU win, 7-1 as a favorite and 6-0 when giving points at neutral venues. Conversely, Penn State is on “over” tears of 5-2 overall, 4-1 against the Big East, 4-1-1 on Tuesday and 4-1 as an underdog.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
COLLEGE INSIDER TOURNAMENT
Old Dominion (24-10, 13-15-1 ATS) at Bradley (21-14, 16-15 ATS)
Old Dominion throttled Colonial Athletic Association rival James Madison 81-43 as an eight-point home favorite on Thursday to advance to the championship game of the inaugural College Insider Tournament. The Monarchs, who opened the tourney with a pair of eight-point home wins over The Citadel and Belmont, have won 13 of their last 15 games. They’re just 8-7 ATS during this stretch, but 3-1 SU and ATS on the highway (all in Colonial Athletic Association action).
Bradley barely knocked off both Austin Peay (81-74) and Oakland (76-75) in the first two rounds of the CIT, failing to cash in both games at home. But the Braves handled Pacific 59-49 on Wednesday and cashed as a five-point home favorite to halt overall ATS slides of 0-3 and 1-5. Bradley has followed up a four-game losing skid by going 8-2 in its last 10 (5-5 ATS), including 6-0 at home (3-3 ATS).
Old Dominion is on ATS runs of 8-3-1 as an underdog (7-3-1 as a road pup), 5-2 when catching less than seven points and 9-3 when playing on the road after three or more straight home games. However, the Monarchs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 Tuesday outings and 4-18 ATS in their last 22 after a spread-cover.
Bradley’s ATS streaks include 37-18-3 at home, 9-4 as a favorite, 10-4 as a chalk of less than seven points, 23-10 after a SU win and 10-1 after surrendering less than 50 points in their previous contest. On the downside, the Braves are 2-6 ATS in their last eight out of conference and 1-5 ATS in their last six against teams with a winning record.
The Braves carry “over” streaks of 8-3 overall, 5-2 at home, 41-19-1 as a home chalk, 10-4-1 on Tuesday and 6-2 as a favorite. Conversely, the under for Old Dominion is on stretches of 5-1 overall, 8-2 on the road, 5-0 after a SU win and 9-2 as a road ‘dog of less than seven points.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
NBA
Atlanta (43-31, 41-32-1 ATS) at Philadelphia (37-35, 32-38-2 ATS)
The 76ers look to halt a two-game slide and continue their playoff push when they welcome the Hawks to the Wachovia Center.
Philadelphia followed up Friday’s 100-95 home loss to Charlotte as a 4½-point favorite with Sunday’s 101-97 setback at Detroit as a 2½-point underdog. The Sixers’ two-game dip comes on the heels of a 7-2 SU run, and they’ve now failed to cover in three straight games, five of the last seven and 15 of the last 22. Also, Philly is just 5-4 SU and 2-7 ATS at home during this 22-game stretch.
Atlanta is coming off Sunday’s 83-76 upset victory over the Lakers as a 3½-point home favorite, a triumph that came after consecutive home losses to the Spurs (102-92) and Celtics (99-93). The Hawks, who have played 11 of their last 12 games at home, get four of their next five on the road, where they’ve lost three in a row and six out of seven (3-4 ATS), the only win coming at lowly Washington.
These squads split their first two meetings this season, both in Atlanta, with the Hawks winning 95-88 as a 2½-point chalk and losing 109-94 as a 5½-point choice. Despite the 76ers’ cover in the latter contest, they’re still only 2-5-1 ATS in the last eight meetings with the Hawks, including 0-3 ATS (1-2 SU) at home. Also, the underdog is on a 6-2-1 ATS roll and the road team is on a 5-1-1 ATS romp in this rivalry.
Atlanta has failed to cover in six of its last seven games against Atlantic Division opponents, but otherwise the Hawks are on ATS runs of 9-2-1 overall, 9-3 against the Eastern Conference, 10-2 versus winning teams, 5-1 on Tuesday, 5-2 as an underdog and 12-5 as a pup of less than five points. Philadelphia is 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 against the Southeast Division, but from there the pointspread runs turn negative, including 2-5 overall, 2-7 at home, 3-7 as a favorite, 4-10 as a home chalk of less than five points and 3-7 after a SU defeat.
For the Hawks, the “over” is on runs of 4-1 overall, 4-1 on the road, 4-1 as an underdog and 4-1 when playing on one day of rest. For the Sixers, the “over” streaks include 6-1 overall, 5-1 against the Eastern Conference, 5-2-1 versus the Southeast Division, 8-3-1 as a favorite, 9-3 on Tuesday, 4-1 when playing after one day of rest and 16-5-2 after a SU loss.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA and OVER
Utah (46-27, 37-36 ATS) at Portland (46-27, 38-34 ATS)
Two of the top three teams in the crowded Northwest Division square off at the Rose Garden, as the Blazers will host the Jazz.
Utah knocked off the Knicks 112-104 at home on Monday night to move into a second place tie with Portland in the Northwest Division, 1½ games behind the Nuggets, whom the Jazz will play in Denver on Thursday. Utah has rebounded from a three-game SU losing streak to win five of its last six, and since the beginning of February, Jerry Sloan’s squad is on a 20-5 SU run. However, the Jazz failed to cash as an 11-point favorite against the Knicks and they’ve followed up a 9-1 ATS run by going 5-10 ATS in their last 15.
Portland has been idle since Saturday’s 86-66 pummeling of Memphis as a 12½-point home favorite. It was the Blazers’ best defensive effort and the Grizzlies’ lowest point total of the season. Portland is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games and it has covered in six of its last seven overall. Additionally, Nate McMillan’s squad is 15-2 SU and 11-6 ATS in its last 17 at the Rose Garden
The home team has dominated this rivalry lately, winning six straight meetings and nine of the last 10 both SU and ATS, with the winner covering the pointspread in all 10 contests. This season, the Jazz won the first two clashes at home – 103-96 as a 6½-point favorite and 97-88 as a three-point chalk – but Portland cruised to a 122-108 win as a nine-point chalk in the most recent meeting Jan. 31.
Also in this divisional tussle, the favorite has gotten the money in each of the last five head-to-head battles, and going back several years, the host is on a 20-8 ATS roll, with the Blazers riding a five-game SU and ATS winning streak against the Jazz inside the Rose Garden.
Utah is 1-4 SU and ATS in its last five roadies after going 4-0 SU and ATS in its previous four on the highway. Additionally, the Jazz are in pointspread ruts of 2-7 overall, 1-9 as an underdog, 0-8 as a road pup, 1-7 against winning teams and 2-7 when playing on back-to-back nights. Conversely, in addition to their 6-1 ATS run overall, the Blazers are on positive ATS streaks of 6-1 as a favorite, 4-0 on Tuesday, 4-1 against the Western Conference and 5-1 when going on two days’ rest.
The under is on runs of 5-2 for Utah overall, 7-1 for Utah against the Western Conference, 9-3 for Utah on Tuesday and 20-8 for Portland in divisional contests. On the flip side, the over is on streaks of 7-3-1 for the Blazers at home, 4-0 when the Blazers are favored by 5 to 10½ points and 15-5-1 when the Jazz are an underdog. Finally, the total has alternated in the last six meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PORTLAND
DUNKEL
Oklahoma City at San Antonio
The Spurs look to bounce back from their loss at New Orleans and take advantage of an Oklahoma City team that is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games as an underdog and 1-5 in its last 6 overall. San Antonio is the pick (-12) according to Dunkel, which has the Spurs favored by 14. Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-12).
Game 751-752: Detroit at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 115.404; Cleveland 127.890
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 12 1/2; 174 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 10; 177 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-10); Under
Game 753-754: Atlanta at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 120.160; Philadelphia 122.621
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 2 1/2; 196
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia by 3; 193
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+3); Over
Game 755-756: LA Lakers at Charlotte
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 123.980; Charlotte 119.795
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 4; 186
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 5 1/2; 193
Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (+5 1/2); Under
Game 757-758: Chicago at Indiana
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 120.000; Indiana 121.069
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 1; 210 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 759-760: Dallas at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 119.370; Minnesota 114.582
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 5; 194
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 761-762: Oklahoma City at San Antonio
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 111.576; San Antonio 125.809
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 14; 187 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 12; 189
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-12); Under
Game 763-764: New York at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: New York 111.044; Denver 125.317
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 14 1/2; 225 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 11 1/2; 222
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-11 1/2); Over
Game 765-766: Utah at Portland
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 122.075; Portland 126.935
Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 5; 198
Vegas Line & Total: Portland by 6 1/2; 194
Dunkel Pick: Utah (+6 1/2); Over
Game 767-768: New Orleans at Sacramento
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 120.886; Sacramento 111.842
Dunkel Line & Total: New Orleans by 9; 208
Vegas Line & Total: New Orleans by 6 1/2; 203
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-6 1/2); Over
NCAAB
Notre Dame vs. Penn State
The Irish come into tonight's NIT contest with a 13-6 ATS record in their last 19 games as a favorite between 1 and 6 1/2 points, while the Nittany Lions are just 5-17-1 ATS in their last 23 games as an underdog by the same margin. Notre Dame is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Irish favored by 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Notre Dame (-3 1/2).
Game 769-770: Baylor vs. San Diego State
Dunkel Ratings: Baylor 70.233; San Diego State 65.271
Dunkel Line: Baylor by 5
Vegas Line: Baylor by 1
Dunkel Pick: Baylor (-1)
Game 771-772: Notre Dame vs. Penn State
Dunkel Ratings: Notre Dame 67.318; Penn State 61.739
Dunkel Line: Notre Dame by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Notre Dame by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Notre Dame (-3 1/2)
Game 773-774: Old Dominion at Bradley
Dunkel Ratings: Old Dominion 62.030; Bradley 61.975
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Bradley by 1
Dunkel Pick: Old Dominion (+1)
NHL
Ottawa at Florida
The Panthers are just 1-4 in their last 5 home games and face an Ottawa team that is 7-0 in their last 7 games when playing on 1 day of rest. The Senators are the underdog pick (+130) according to Dunkel, which has Ottawa favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (+130).
Game 1-2: Tampa Bay at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 10.465; Boston 12.019
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-400); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-400); Under
Game 3-4: Nashville at Columbus
Dunkel Ratings: Nashville 11.436; Columbus 11.328
Dunkel Line & Total: Nashville by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Columbus (-160); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Nashville (+140); Over
Game 5-6: Chicago at Montreal
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 10.693; Montreal 11.067
Dunkel Line & Total: Montreal by 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Montreal (-125); 6
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-125); Under
Game 7-8: Ottawa at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 12.029; Florida 11.215
Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Florida (-150); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (+130); Over
Game 9-10: Vancouver at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Vancouver 12.211; Minnesota 11.786
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-125); 5
Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (-125); Under
Game 11-12: Anaheim at Edmonton
Dunkel Ratings: Anaheim 11.877; Edmonton 11.268
Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Edmonton (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (+105); Over
Game 13-14: Dallas at Los Angeles
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 9.937; Los Angeles 10.488
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-150); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-150); Under
Michael Alexander
Chicago Blackhawks vs. Montreal Canadiens
Play: Chicago Blackhawks +102
The Chicago Blackhawks, sitting 4th in the Western Conference with 91 points visit the Montreal Canadians in NHL Picks action. The Hawks had a three game winning streak snapped by Vancouver on Sunday but have really struggled recently losing 8 of their last 12 overall. They have had trouble versus the Canadians when in Montreal going only 3-6 in NHL picks action. Chicago has had a potent offense this season as they rank 3rd overall in the NHL averaging 3.22 goals per game. Their goaltending has been respectable as they rank 7th overall allowing an identical 3.22 goals against. This will be the first meeting between these two teams.
The Montreal Canadians come into this NHL picks contest fighting for their playoff lives. They currently sit in the 8th and final spot in the Eastern Conference but are only 1 point in front of the Florida Panthers and four points in front of the hard charging Buffalo Sabres. Montreal had their two game winning streak snapped by the Sabres back on Saturday but have been struggling as well losing 8 of their last 12 NHL Picks games as well. They can most blame their goaltending for their recent swoon as they have allowed a whopping 3.8 goals per game. The Canadians offense hasn't been able to keep pace averaging 2.92 goals per game and rank 13th in the league.
Trends/Angles: MONTREAL is 10-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) in home games after a home game where both teams score 3 or more goals over the last 3 seasons.
Montreal just isn't getting the goaltending to stay with the Hawks. I'm taking Chicago in this one.
Craig Trapp
Notre Dame vs. Penn State
Play: Notre Dame -4
Notre Dame and Penn State are both on fire in the NIT and have started playing much more consistent than they did in the regular season. Both of these teams had several key wins in the regular season but neither of these teams could put any sort of consistent win streak together to stamp their ticket to the Big Dance. But lucky for them the NIT put them both in and now they can prove why they should have been in the Dance. Lets look at the records and trends!
Team records:
Notre Dame: 21-14 SU, 12-18 ATS
Penn State: 25-11 SU, 17-12 ATS
Recent ATS Trends
-Fighting Irish are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.
-Fighting Irish are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games vs. team with a winning record
-Nittany Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games as an underdog.
-Nittany Lions are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. Big East.
The Big East Conference has been the best conference all season and Notre Dame will once again prove the hype of the conference is well deserved. Notre Dame has had a few problems all year and the main issue has been rebounding. Lucky for ND that PSU is not a stellar offensive rebounding team. The other problem ND has had is consistent defensive intensity. Also lucky for ND is the fact that PSU is not an explosive offensive team. This match up could not be more perfect for a ND slaughter. This game will not be close and will be a blowout the whole second half. Harrangody might get 35 tonight as PSU has no answer that can stop his offensive post moves.
SCORE ND 77 - PSU 64
James Patrick Sports
Old Dominion vs. Bradley
The Monarchs enter tough territory here as the Braves are a solid 37-18-3 ATS at home their past 58 contests and ODU is 2-8 ATS in Tuesday action. Bradley lost in the finals of the best of three CBI Championship Series to Tulsa last season and we expect them to grab a crown on their home court this time around. Tuesday's complimentary selection in March Madness action is Bradley Braves.
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Utah Jazz
It's revenge time for the Jazz who take on the Trailblazers at the Rose Garden in Portland tonight. And that's a good thing if you're Utah as they are 9-2 SU and ATS in this series when looking to avenge a loss from the previous meeting, including 6-0 SU and ATS as a dog or favorite of 5 or less points. With the Jazz 5-1 SU and ATS since February on the road off a home game look for the Blazers to drop to 4-12 SU and ATS against teams off back-to-back wins in 2009 here tonight.
Tom Freese
New Orleans at Sacramento
New Orleans is 25-11 ATS their last 36 games vs. Pacific Division teams and they are 10-4 ATS vs. a team that scored 100 or more points in their last game. The Hornets are 4-1-1 ATS their last 6 games as road favorites of 5.0 to 10.5 points. Sacramento is 10-21 ATS their last 31 home games and they are 8-20 ATS off an ATS win. The Kings are 1-6 ATS off a straight up win and they are 1-4 ATS after scoring 100 or more points in their last game. PLAY ON NEW ORLEANS -
Ben Burns
Vancouver Canucks at Minnesota Wild
Prediction: Under
These teams have seen each of their last two meetings finish above the total. Both those games were played at Vancouver though. Looking at the last five meetings between these teams at Minnesota and we find the 'under' at 3-0-2. Those games produced an average of four goals per game. Overall, the Wild have seen the 'under' go 4-2-1 their last seven games, including 2-0 their last two here at Minnesota. Consider the Under.
Jimmy The Moose
Vancouver Canucks at Minnesota Wild
Prediction: Vancouver Canucks
The Canucks have won 7 of their last 10 games. Vancouver has been red-hot for awhile now and are a profitable 19-7 in their last 26 overall. Vanvouver has won 7 of their last 9 games vs. a Western Conference opponent. In their last 18 games following a win they are 13-5. The Wild are 8-22 in their last 30 games following a win. In their last 35 games vs. a team with a winning record they are 10-25. The Canucks are 5-2 in their last 7 trips to Minnesota. Play on the Vancouver Canucks -.
Nick Parsons
Vancouver Canucks -120 @ Minnesota Wild
Vancouver has a chance to win its division, something that was a pipedream a month ago, as Calgary continues to lose and when looking at each teams remaining games, the Canucks certainly have the easier road to the end. Vancouver will look to finish the season strong and try to finish up a spot or two in the standings before this is all said and done; Vancouver is an awesome 12-7 (+4.1 units) vs. division opponents. It was a nice road victory for the Wild on Sunday at Edmonton. But is it enough? Despite the win, Minnesota remained in 11th place in the Western Conference through Sunday, three points behind eighth-place St. Louis and four behind seventh-place Nashville; Minnesota is 9-22 (-10.4 units) when playing against a team with a winning record! Play on VANCOUVER!
Bob Harvey
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Charlotte Bobcats
Play: Charlotte Bobcats +5½
Motivation will decide tonight's game between the Lakers and Bobcats.
The Lakers have already clinched division and conference titles and while a Phil Jackson coached team would never be never be accused of “coasting”, getting and keeping players healthy for the playoffs is the top priority for the Zen master.
Meanwhile Charlotte is one of those teams that seemingly have the Lakers number winning five of their last six outings against LA. The Bobcats are also in the playoff chase in the Eastern Conference trailing Chicago by two games for the 8th and final playoff spot.
The Lakers are coming off their worst performance of the year in Atlanta. That game saw the Lakers finish with just 76 points, 31 points below their season average.
While the Lakers would love to clinch the best record in the league, you can expect the starters to log fewer minutes as they prepare for the post-season.
Jeff Benton
For Tuesday’s free play, we’ll head to the NIT semifinals and play Penn State plus the points against Notre Dame.
Both these teams won three straight games to get to this point, but I’ve been much more impressed with Penn State’s journey to Madison Square Garden than Notre Dame’s. In defeating George Mason and Rhode Island at home, followed by last week’s big-time upset at Florida, the Nittany Lions outshot their opponents 48 percent to 43.7 percent. By comparison, Notre Dame faced UAB, New Mexico and Kentucky, and despite hosting all three games in their home gym, the Irish made less than 42 percent of their shots, while their opponents shot nearly 44 percent.
And if you look back over the Irish’s last five games – four of them victories – you’ll see that they’re averaging 68 ppg on 39.4 percent shooting, including 38.9 percent from three-point land. What’s really interesting about that stat is, in addition to the three NIT home games, the other two contests were played in Madison Square Garden against Rutgers and West Virginia in the Big East tournament. Want to know how bad Notre Dame’s offensive production was in those two contests in New York? It scored 61 and 62 points and shot 35 percent and 38 percent, respectively!
Tonight, the Irish go up against a defensive-minded Penn State squad that yields only 62.7 ppg on 43.3 percent shooting for the season, including 65.2 ppg and 41.8 percent in the last five. Just as important, the Nittany Lions’ sluggish offense has come to life in the NIT, scoring 77, 83 and 71 points after previously being held under 70 points in 11 consecutive games (all in the Big Ten).
Penn State has also thrived in non-conference action of late, going 8-3 ATS in its last 11 outside the Big Ten. Meanwhile, Notre Dame has struggled to cover numbers against quality competition (5-12 ATS in the last 17 versus teams with a winning record). What’s more, the Irish – who covered as a 3½-point favorite in Wednesday’s 77-67 quarterfinal home win over Kentucky – have cashed in consecutive games just ONCE all season long!
Bottom line: I watched Penn State dismantle Florida last week IN Gainesville, and I’m telling you, this team is underrated and could easily take out the inconsistent Irish. Grab the points in what figures to be a low-scoring affair.
5♦ PENN STATE
Matt Rivers
For Tuesday take the Pacers at home.
Just the other day these two teams faced each other and it was the Bulls who pulled out the six point win but non-cover at home in the Windy City. Now back in Indiana I will gladly back the Pacers here at this semi steal of a price.
Sure Vinny Del Negro's team is the one that has a chance at the playoffs as Indiana has been decimated this season by injuries but Chicago is not going to sweep this somewhat home and home, it's just not happening.
Chicago has had a successful month of March allowing them to get into a playoff position and do have guys playing at very high levels in Ben Gordon, Derrick Rose and John Salmons. But with Danny Granger back filling it up and having the home court advantage as well as a matter of revenge I have no issues at all in backing the Pacers today as that should be too much for the visitors' positives in this spot.
Da Bulls are also playing a third game in four days which included an extra five minutes of action up North in that overtime loss at Toronto on Sunday. That certainly does not help the situation today and in the end the Pacers at home should flat out exact some revenge and win this game!
Tony Weston
Today's Selection
We came through once again yesterday as the Knicks do their job and give us another winner in this spot.
That puts us at 6-1 our last 7 Comp Plays and puts us at 14-5 our last 19 freebies.
We’re coming through with another winner tonight as we continue with more NBA action as we’re taking the Charlotte Bobcats at home against the Los Angeles Lakers.
No matter how bad the Bobcats are - and the franchise is regularly horrible - or how decent they are - and Larry Brown has worked wonders with the team - Charlotte has a history of making money against the Lakers.
Coming into this game the Bobcats have covered in 7 of their last 8 games against the Lakers, including consecutive covers in their last two meetings.
Also, Charlotte has covered in 4 consecutive games against the Pacific Division and has covered in 14 of its last 18 games at home.
Now the Bobcats battle a Lakers team that has covered in only 2 of its last 11 games against the Southeast Division and has gone only 5-12 ATS its last 17 games coming off a SU loss.
In this series the underdog has gone 7-1 ATS their last 8 meetings and the ’dog will cover once again tonight as the Bobcats cash in.
Take the points and take Charlotte at home in this one tonight.
3♦ BOBCATS
Karl Garrett
Detroit at CLEVELAND -10
Lay the points tonight with the Cavaliers as they take on the Pistons.
How do I like the Cavs?
Let me count the ways!
# 1 - Cleveland is riding a 12-game winning streak which is a franchise record. They have also covered in their last pair of wins, and 3 of their last 4 wins during their current tear.
# 2 - The Cavaliers are 35-1 straight up at home this year, and they are on a 23-9 spread run their last 32 at the Quicken Loans Arena.
Finally, Cleveland has won and covered thel last pair of series meetings against Detroit, both coming by double-digits.
G-Man is laying the lumber with the Cavaliers, as they roll to win # 13 in a row.
3♦ CLEVELAND