Bobby Maxwell
Atlanta +3 at PHILADELPHIA
Today we shift to the pro ranks for a comp selection on Atlanta as the Hawks go to Philly to battle the Sixers.
Philadelphia has failed to cash in any of its last three games, including a 100-95 home loss to the Bobcats on Friday and a 101-97 loss to Detroit on Sunday.
Meanwhile the Hawks are coming off maybe their best victory of the season, beating the Lakers 83-76 at home on Sunday as a 3 1/2-point home favorite.
That momentum is going to carry Atlanta to this one tonight.
Atlanta is on a 5-2-1 ATS run in the last eight meetings with the Sixers and 3-0 ATS in their last three visits to Philly. Also, looking at this series, you'll see the 'dog is on a 6-2-1 ATS run and the road team is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seen.
The Hawks are on further ATS runs of 9-2-1 overall, 9-3 against Eastern Conference squads, 10-2 against winning teams, 5-1 on Tuesdays, 5-2 as a 'dog and 12-5 as a 'dog of less than five points. Look at the other side and you'll see the Sixers are on ATS slides of 2-5 overall, 2-7 at home, 3-7 as a favorite and 4-10 as a home chalk of less than five points.
Atlanta has the young legs to keep up with the Sixers and they got more inside presence with Al Horford and one of our favorite players in Joe Johnson. Go ahead and grab the points and play the Hawks in this one.
2♦ ATLANTA
Chris Jordan
Notre Dame vs. Penn State +4, at New York City
The Nittany Lions are going to keep this one close, as I've been a little more impressed with their road to this Final Four, than I have been with Notre Dame's. After all, Penn State was one of the first three teams mentioned as those that were shunned by the Big Dance committee.
Yet while the Irish got to play all three of their tourney games at home, the Lions were shipped to Gainesville after two home wins over Rhode Island and George Mason. Installed a 10-1/2-point underdog to Florida, the Lions scoffed at the notion, and drilled the Gators by nine, 71-62.
Notre Dame took out UAB, New Mexico and a Kentucky team that was dealing with off-court distractions with lame-duck coach Billy Gillespie (at the time). Now the Irish hit the streets, where they're 6-11 SU and ATS on the year.
And though much is being made about this team already having plenty of experience in New York City, not to mention the whole Big East factor, I am simply not buying into it and see Penn State as the value play.
You have Talor Battle, the Big Ten's leading scorer has helped Penn State (25-11) tie a school-record for victories. You have Jamelle Cornley, who had 23 points and 12 rebounds against the Gators, despite an injured left shoulder. And according to one report, you have "a convoy of busses (expeted to arrive) from University Park (with) a load of Penn State fans (coming to)Manhattan."
Penn State has another big road win to its credit as well, having won at Michigan State this past regular season. And in case you forgot, the Spartans are in that 'other' final quartet. Battle poured in 29 points on then-ranked No. 9 MSU. The Lions scored three other upsets over ranked opponents. The last being against Illinois on March 5, when Battle raced the length of the court for the game-winning layup.
This team knows how to win boys, and four points might be too much if this one comes down to the end.
1♦ PENN STATE
Sports Gambling Hotline
Notre Dame vs. PENN STATE +4 - at New York, NY
Both schools have rattled off 3 wins in this NIT Tournament, but it is Penn State's 71-62 upset win at Florida in the quarterfinals as a double-digit dog that has us very impressed.
If the Nittany Lions can win in Gainsville, we feel they are more than capable of contending with the Irish for a spot in Thursday night's final.
Notre Dame has done the majority of their damage this season in South Bend, on the road Notre Dame is just 5-11 against the spread this season, including a 1-1 spilt both straight up, and against the spread on this court less then a month ago in the Big East tournament.
Penn State went a positive 9-7 against the spread on the road this year, incluing outright wins at Illinois, and Final Four-bound Michigan State, not to mention last week's win at Florida.
We give Penn State a fighting chance at making it to Thursday night's final, the fact we are catching a couple of baskets maes the play that much better.
Play on the Nittany's.
4♦ PENN STATE
DAVE COKIN
LOS ANGELES LAKERS / CHARLOTTE BOBCATS
Take LOS ANGELES LAKERS
The Lakers are off a loss and in revenge as they head to Charlotte on Tuesday evening. For whatever reason, LA seems to have trouble with this team, but given the conditions tonight, I think we're going to see Kobe and company very focused. The Bobcats are no longer pushovers and they've been tough at home, but I have to lean the Lakers way tonight.
JIM FEIST
DETROIT PISTONS / CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
Take OVER
The streaking Cavaliers can play any style, uptempo or defensive one. They take on a Detroit team that played defense in the first half of the season, but now they are playing none. The Pistons are on a 10-2 run over the total, a veteran team that really isn't putting in the effort defensively. Some good news on offense is that the last game Allen Iverson returned. Coach Mike Curry liked the pairing of Will Bynum and Iverson, despite their obvious lack of size. The players' aggression put a lot of pressure on the 76ers defense. The last time these teams met Cleveland hung 99 points on a Detroit team that was playing defense. Look for plenty of offense in this one, play the Pistons/Cavaliers over the total.
Scott Spreitzer
Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs
I'm laying the points with the Spurs on Tuesday night. Revenge is on the mind of the Spurs' players tonight after dropping their most recent meeting with OKC just a couple of weeks ago. The Thunder had been a strong ATS play for much of this season, but they have begun to take their lumps down the stretch. OKC has dropped three straight, losing by 18, 16, and 19 points to the Lakers, Raptors, and Celtics, respectively. It won't get any easier tonight as the Spurs continue to get into "playoff-mode." San Antone is also off a tough loss to the Hornets and will be ready to go tonight. It's a shot at a blowout for SAS and I believe they'll take full advantage. I'm laying the points with San Antonio on Tuesday.
Play on: San Antonio
MATT FARGO
Utah Jazz @ Portland Trail Blazers
PICK: Portland Trail Blazers
Utah is on the road and we all know what that could entail. Of all of the Western Conference teams in the top eight eligible for the playoffs, the Jazz have the worst road record of the bunch. After winning a season high four straight road games, Utah has now lost four of its last five games away from home, a win in Oklahoma City being the lone exception. This is the first of two straight extremely important divisional games for Utah and unfortunately, both are on the road. The Jazz are 0-14 in their last 14 road games against teams with a winning record, covering just three of those 14 contests and currently riding a 0-9 ATS run in those games. On top of the road woes, Utah has been dreadful this season when playing with no rest, going 3-14 including a 5-12 ATS mark. The Jazz are also 4-14 as underdogs, covering only seven of those 18 games. Portland is now 30-7 at home this season, going 22-14-1 ATS. It has won two straight following an overtime loss against the Sixers and since January 24th, he Blazers are a solid 15-2 in their last 17 games at the Rose Garden, going 11-6 ATS in those games. Portland has been excellent in the medium price range, going 12-5 ATS this season when favored between three and 7.5 points. Utah meanwhile has been horrid as a medium to large underdog, going 3-7 ATS as an underdog of five points or more. Both teams are right in the thick of the Northwest Division with Utah trailing Denver two games and Portland trailing by a game and a half. The home team has had the edge in this series, winning and covering six straight meetings including the first three this season. The Blazers are 12-4 ATS this season coming off a home win by 10 points or more so they have used momentum very effectively. They are also 16-4 ATS in home games after two or more wins over the last two years and that once again shows the momentum working in their favor. Utah has dropped eight straight road games against the number when getting points and that also includes six straight when getting five or more points so a price such as this should not be looked at being too big for Portland to cover. The Blazers were favored by nine points in the last home meeting back in January and they won that one by 14 points and this time around, we catch a break with the line by over a bucket. 3* Portland Trailblazers
VEGAS EXPERTS
Utah Jazz at Portland Trailblazers
The home team in this series has won six straight games SU/ATS. That is not surprising considering both the Jazz and Trailblazers are historically both very good at home. In fact, this year 30-7 SU at the Rose Garden and a money-making 22-14 ATS. The Utah Jazz have dropped four of their last five road games, covering just one of those games. Portland’s last two home games were both 20-point victories, easily winning as chalk.
Play on: Portland
LT Profits
San Diego State +1
While we have a lot of respect for the Big 12, we feel that the 26-9 San Diego State Aztecs have been underrated all year, and they get the call here over the 23-14 Baylor Bears.
Remember that this contest is in Madison Square Garden, and the key here is how these teams have performed on the road. The Aztecs are a respectable 5-5 straight up on the road, although they have been slightly outscored in those games by a scant average of -1.3 points. Remember also that they dismantled another Big 12 team in this tournament in Kansas State 70-52, and San Diego State is a very bettor-friendly 18-12-1, 60.0 percent against the spread this year.
Baylor may come out of the tough conference, but they are just 4-8 SU on the road while getting outscored by -4.9 points per game. They have also not looked as impressive as San Diego State in their three NIT wins so far, with two of their three wins so far being by exactly two points. It is also worth noting that Baylor is actually ranked behind the Aztecs in the Pomeroy Ratings, as San Diego State is ranked 29 and the Bears rank 35.
We look for those ratings to come to fruition tonight with a San Diego State victory.
Pick: San Diego State +1
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EZWINNER'S FREE SELECTION
Date: Tuesday, March 31, 2009
Game: New Orleans Hornets @ Sacramento Kings
Sport: NBA
Time: 9:05PM CST
(768) Sacramento Kings (+7)
My clients and I cashed in a winner with the New Orleans Hornets over the
San Antonio Spurs on Sunday as the short handed Hornets played a great
game winning as a small home underdog, but tonight we find them in the
role of the road favorite. This is a great spot for a letdown by New Orleans
after beating one of the best teams in the West and now facing one of the
worst teams that the West has to offer. Sacramento played very well in
their last game as my clients and I also cashed in on them on Sunday
night as they upset the Suns as a six point home underdog. The Kings
are more than capable of pulling off also pulling off the upset here and
as the Hornets are only 1-7 against the spread in their last eight road
games against teams with losing records and New Orleans in only 1-9-1
against the spread in their last eleven visits to Sac town. Take the points.
2009 Free Selections Record 49-40 (55.1%)
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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
235 - 157 run 60 % ( 7-2 recent run )
Tuesday Bradley
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Free Selection from Totals4U
Tuesday's free selection: San Diego State + 1
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Undefeated's system plays now 4 - 0
Over 201.5 total points
New Orleans vs. Sacramento
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Vernon Croy
Detroit Pistons vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Play: Detroit Pistons +9.5
Grab the points with the Pistons tonight on the road since they need this win a lot more than the Cavaliers who have a comfortable lead over Orlando and Boston. This pick also falls into one of my NBA systems and the Pistons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against a team with a winning record over .600. The Pistons are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games when the posted total is 170 to 179.5 and they are a perfect 3-0 ATS in their last 3 road games as a dog of +9.5 to +12 points. The Pistons are also 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games as a road dog of +5.0 to +10.5 points and the Cavaliers are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games when favored by -5.0 to -10.5 points. Take Detroit as my NBA Free Play for Tuesday Night and make sure you get on my NBA Total of the Month as my 80% NBA Run continues tonight at a special price for Tuesday.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Utah Jazz +6.5
The last time these two teams faced off was in Portland on January 31st and the Jazz were crushed 108-122. With the motivation to avenge that loss and to win the division in a tight race, I can't see the Jazz going down by 7 points tonight. Utah has struggled on the road this season, but tonight's situation is a little bit different as Utah is 25-11 ATS revenging a road loss vs. an opponent of 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons, winning these games by an average score or 106.1 to 97.8. Portland is 39-63 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points since 1996 and 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. Take Utah.
Dwayne Bryant
Old Dominion +2 vs Bradley
Bradley is the small chalk in this CIT title game simply because they're at home. I think the wrong team is favored here. At the time of this writing, 72% of the public was backing Bradley, but the Braves are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning SU record.Bradley wouldn't even be in this CIT title game if it hadn't been for a 75-foot heave at the buzzer to beat Oakland in the quarter-finals.Old Dominion is simply the better team. Their offensive efficiency ranking is 119, while Bradley's defensive efficiency ranking is 139. Slight edge to Old Dominion. Old Dominion's defensive efficiency ranking is 74, while Bradley's offensive efficiency ranking is 122. Another edge for Old Dominion.The Monarchs also have a nice edge in effective height rating at +1.8 compared to Bradley's -0.4. That's a 2.2 effective height rating edge, which is significant. That would seem to tie into Old Dominion being ranked 25th in the nation in rebound margin. Bradley is ranked 194th in that category.There are just too many advantages for Old Dominion and I don't think home court is enough to overcome all that.I'll grab the points with Old Dominion.
Wunderdog
Los Angeles Lakers at Charlotte
Pick: UNDER 192
The Charlotte Hornets are a rare team as they are a top five defensive team, yet have a losing record on the season. They have played at home 11 times against the NBA's top 10 in points per game scored, and nine of the 11 have gone UNDER the total. These 11 games were played to an average total of 196, while the average points scored were 184.2, that is 11.8 ppg less than the posted totals in these matchups. Teams that averaged 104.5 ppg were reduced to 93.8 ppg, which would rank No. 28 in the NBA. In turn, the Lakers have played against 12 teams on the road in the top 10 in defensive points allowed. They have averaged less than 100 points per game against these teams. Charlotte is also 20-7 to the UNDER at home against teams with a .600 winning percentage or higher and after an ATS loss, the Lakers are 8-1-1 ATS to the UNDER. I like this one to end up UNDER the total.
Evan Altemus
Old Dominion Monarchs @ Bradley Braves
Pick: Old Dominion Monarchs +2
Bradley has a substantial edge in home court advantage, as they have drawn over 10,000 fans in these post season games. In addition, they have played all of their CIT games at home, so the Braves are well rested. However, I feel that these two factors are giving us excellent point spread value, and the oddsmakers are telling us something about these two teams. Bradley is just a small favorite, despite playing with a fairly strong home court advantage. The Colonial Athletic Association is a step above the Missouri Valley Conference this season. This year has been one of the weaker years for the MVC, evident by only one team making it into the NCAA tournament. In addition, Northern Iowa was bounced in the 1st round, while Creighton was defeated at home by a relatively weak Kentucky team in the NIT. In addition, Old Dominion underperformed for most of this season before turning things on in February. The Monarchs are a very athletic and well coached team. In addition, their three wins in the CIT have come against much better teams than Bradley. The Citadel, Belmont, and James Madison are overall tougher opponents than Pacific, Oakland, and Austin Peay. In addition, Old Dominion played very well on the road this season, going 7-6 straight up away from home. They are an experienced team as well, so they won’t get rattled in the hostile environment. Look for Old Dominion to get the outright win.