Jrtips
NY KNICKS vs. NUGGETS
The Denver Nuggets are looking for its fourth straight victory with their well-oiled offense that has helped Denver win eight of its last nine games. The Nuggets (48-26) are just one-half game behind second-place San Antonio in the standings, and still have a realistic chance at home-court advantage in the first round. Denver is coming off a 129-116 home win over Golden State after getting key wins in the final two games of its road trip at New Orleans and Dallas. The Knicks have lost eight of their last nine to fall out of contention in the East. New York's fast-paced style and woeful defense wont be able to slow down Denver's red-hot offense. The Nuggets have scored at least 100 points in each of their last nine, averaging 112.8 points and shooting 49.1 percent over that span. Against Golden State, another up-tempo opponent, Denver shot 55.1 percent as seven players scored in double figures, led by Carmelo Anthony's 31 points. The Knicks (29-45) have dropped the first two games of their three-game trip, including Monday night's 112-104 defeat at Utah.The Knicks erased a 24-point deficit and briefly took a fourth-quarter lead against the Jazz, but they still fell to 1-16 in road games against teams currently over .500. Now the Knicks will have an even toufgher game playing a second straight night at high altitude. The Knicks lost 115-83 in last years visit to Denver, and the Nuggets won 117-110 at Madison Square Garden on Dec. 28th. New York also may be shorthanded after guard Larry Hughes injured his ankle Monday as the Knicks have already played the last two contests without Quentin Richardson. The Knicks played a tough game in utah last niht but they wont have anything left going against this red- hot, high powered Denver offense on a back to back night in high altitude.TAKE DENVER-12 1/2
Scott Rickenbach
Dallas Stars @ Los Angeles Kings
PICK: Over
When a team starts to "shut off" the intensity as a result of falling out of the playoff race, we often get line value with totals. Last night the Stars lost 6 to 5 in overtime at Phoenix. Those 11 goals scored are a sign of things to come. With Dallas seeing their playoff hopes slip through their fingers, their defense is no longer able to pull together with the kind of solid efforts they were providing back when the Stars were rolling. Mentally, it's just about impossible to maintain this level when a team is slumping at the end of a season. This results in crazy, more "care-free" games and, with the Kings soon joining the Stars on the golf courses rather than in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, the expectation here is a higher scoring game. We realize Los Angeles isn't known for high scoring games but at this time of the season and on home ice and catching the Stars in back to back spot, we absolutely expect the Kings to push the pace here! Consider a small play on OVER the total in Los Angeles in the NHL on Tuesday night.
DOC
Dallas Mavericks @ Minnesota Timberwolves
PICK: Under
The under is 7-1 in the last eight meetings in Minnesota and we see this one going the same way tonight. The over is overadjusted for this game since the Mavs have played so many up-tempo teams lately. Their last 10 games have included meetings with Denver, Golden State (twice), Indiana, the Lakers and Phoenix. However, they face a Minnesota team tonight that has been really struggling offensively. They have reached the century mark just once in their last eight games. They have averaged just 92 PPG during that span and have failed to get out of the 80s four times in their last eight. Four of the last five for the Mavs have gone under the posted number.
LARRY NESS
Detroit Pistons @ Cleveland Cavaliers
PICK: Cleveland Cavaliers
The Pistons enter this game 36-3, just barely ahead of the Bulls (36-39) for the seventh playoff seed in the East. Detroit would like to stay at No. 7 (thereby avoiding Cleveland), although a matchup with Boston or Orlando in the first round, isn't likely to turn out very well for this past contender, now pretender. The Pistons are getting healthier but who cares? The Cavs are currently on the NBA's longest active winning streak (12 straight, which is also a franchise all-time best). The Cavs own the East's best record by a comfortable five-game margin but don't look for any "let up," as Cleveland's lead over the Lakers is just two games (for the overall best mark) and the Lakers do own the tie-breaker if the teams finish with the same record. While LeBron (28.4-7.7-7.4) is the centerpiece of everything, one may have noticed that in Sunday;'s 102-74 rout of the Mavs, he played "only" 31 minutes, while 12 players saw action. The Cavs are a remarkable 35-1 SU at home (25-11 ATS), winning by the average margin of 102.8-to-88.3 PPG. They've allowed just 82.0 PPG in taking the first three games of this four-game homestand and after losing in their first meeting this year with the Pistons, have won the last two, holding Detroit to just 79.0 PPG. Lay it!
Rocketman Sports
Old Dominion @ Bradley
Play On: Bradley
Old Dominion is 4-12 ATS in all tournament games the past 3 years. Bradley is 18-7 ATS last 3 years after allowing 60 points or less. Bradley is 14-4 SU at home this year and 41-13 SU at home the past 3 years. Monarchs are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game. Monarchs are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. Monarchs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 Tuesday games. Monarchs are 4-18 ATS in their last 22 games following a ATS win. Braves are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game. Braves are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5. Braves are 23-10 ATS in their last 33 games following a SU win. Braves are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite. Braves are 37-18-3 ATS in their last 58 home games. We'll recommend a small play on Bradley tonight!
Dennis Macklin
Ottawa Senators at Florida Panthers
Prediction: Ottawa Senators
Grabbing the very live dog Senators here in a series they've dominated to the tune of 8-3 over the L11. Sens 10-3 L13 overall and come off nice 3-0 whitewash of the Lightning. The Panthers won last two, both on the road, but have lost five of six on home ice and have allowed three or more goals in four of five and seven of nine. Take Ottawa.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Pistons/Cavs UNDER 180
13 of the last 17 in this series have gone under the number, including 6 of the last 8 at Cleveland. All 3 matchups have gone under this season and we'll continue to ride this trend tonight. Cleveland is 14-3 UNDER in home games in March over the last 2 seasons, 10-1 UNDER in home games off a home blowout win by 20 points or more over the last 3 seasons, and 14-4 UNDER in home games when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Detroit is 19-7 UNDER when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Under in this defensive battle.
Jeff Alexander
1 UNIT ON Chicago Bulls +2
The Pacers are thin without Murphy and Dunleavy in the lineup and I'll take a Bulls team fighting hard to hang onto the final playoff spot in the East here. The Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings and the Bulls are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games as an underdog. Plus, Chicago is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU loss. Off a tough loss in Toronto, I like Chicago to get back in the win column tonight.
John Martin
1 Unit on Detroit Pistons +10
Detroit is finally getting healthy and they’ll make a statement tonight with a great showing against the Cleveland Cavaliers on the road. Richard Hamilton and Allen Iverson are back in the lineup, and Rasheed Wallace returns tonight after missing 11 games. This Detroit team is dangerous when healthy, and they are not going to lose by double digits tonight in Cleveland. The Cavs have won 2 of 3 meetings in this series this season, so Detroit wants to square it at 2-2. This is especially the case after the embarrassment they suffered in their last meeting, a 21-point loss to the Cavaliers. Detroit will be playing with their pride on the line in this one. The Pistons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Detroit is 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. This line would be right if Detroit weren’t fully healthy, but they are back at full strength now and the odds makers have clearly inflated this spread. Cash in with the Pistons as the underdog.
Info Plays
3* on Bulls/Pacers OVER 215
Reasons why the Bulls/Pacers game goes OVER the Total:
1.) Chicago beat Indiana 112-106 at home just 3 nights ago. That 218-point effort will get eclipsed tonight when the Bulls travel to the Pacers Tuesday. Indiana scores more points at home, averaging 105.4 PPG this season. Chicago is a much worse defensive team on the road, allowing 105.1 PPG away from home this year. The Bulls are scoring points at will right now with a 109.4 PPG average over their last 5 ball games.
2.) Trends favoring the OVER. The OVER is 13-4 in Bulls last 17 games as an underdog. The OVER is 9-3 in Bulls last 12 games as a road underdog. The OVER is 25-10-3 in Chicago’s last 38 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The OVER is 14-6-1 in Pacers last 21 games as a favorite. The OVER is 20-6-1 in Pacers last 27 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. The OVER is 18-7 in Indiana’s last 25 games following a S.U. win. The Pacers have found their offense, beating Washington 124-115 their last time out.
3.) System Play. We’ll Play Over - Any team (CHICAGO) - after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game against opponent after going over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game. This is a 282-194 OVER System hitting 59.2% since 1996. Both teams are clicking offensively right now, but struggling to get stops. Bet the OVER 215 points.
Greg Shaker
Old Dominion Monarchs at Bradley Braves
Play: Bradley -2
Both teams have been impressive down the stretch of this season and both earned the right to play on their homecourt throughout this tourney. This contest will be played in Peoria and that is simply good for these Braves who have had outstanding success here, losing just 3 times to some pretty good squads, Northern Iowa, Creighton, and Butler. The Competition Level has been better this year for Bradley and when they have looked at a familiar basket, they have performed much better with their shooting skills. If we simply look at offensive and defensive efficiencies for this contest we don't see the whole story. There is no doubt that ODU has done better stopping the opposition, they have a height advantage, they rebound better. The Braves are going to have to work the perimiter tonight and they have done that very well here in Illinois with a high percentage of outside shots made. Most recently over 39% from beyond the arc over their last 5 games played. We are very likely to see a slow tempo for this contest and we are also very likely to see a close contest. Free Throw Shooting could easily decide who wins this game and Bradley certainly has the upper hand in that department with much better yearly stats and even better recent stats. The Braves are the #1 Seed in this Tourney and they did have a miracle win verses Oakland. Does that mean Destiny? I think so and the Folks in Peoria are pretty excited about tonight's contest. While this game is not even close to my favorite on the card tonight, it is worthy of a play.
King Creole
SAN DIEGO STATE plus the pt(s) vs Baylor
You don't want to be playing on a team that's off multiple UNDERDOG wins in the NIT Tournament. So we'll play on previous patterns and tendencies to repeat themselves as we fade the Baylor Bears in the first game of tonight's double-header.
1-6 ATS for ALL NIT teams who come in off 2 or more UNDERDOG wins in a row (Baylor).
2-10 ATS. ALL NIT favorites playing off a SU ROAD underdog win (Baylor).
BIG 12 favorites do very poorly in the NIT favorite when priced fairly low.
BIG 12 favorites of 7 < points are 6-14 ATS in the NIT Tourney (Baylor)... and a PERFECT 0-5 ATS in the last 5 years.
San Diego State enters the semi-final round off 3 straight HOME wins (and covers). That's a good sign for underdogs in this round.
5-1 ATS since 2002: All NIT semi-final underdogs playing off a SU and ATS FAVORITE win (SD STATE).
5-1 ATS: All NIT semi-final underdogs playing off 3 STRAIGHT home games (SD STATE).
4-0 ATS: All NIT semi-final underdogs playing off a SU win of 5 or less pts (SD STATE).
If the line in this game goes down to PICK EM... or SAN DIEGO STATE turns into a favorite, then downgrade this selection slightly....
Andre Gomes
SAC +6.5 vs NOH
The Hornets are coming from a pivotal and very important win against the Spurs. However they are still shorthanded for today as Tyson Chandler and Peja Stojakovic are out for this game. So the Hornets relies only in Chris Paul and David West to get done their job, this is enough for them to grab some wins but to blow out their opponents the story is completely different. Their bench is one of the worst benches of the league ranked 28th with 23.7 ppg. However in the last 5 games the numbers are even worst as they averaged just 17.6 ppg (dead last in the league), James Posey is out for this game as well and I doubt that the Hornets can dominate a game right now.
The Kings meanwhile are coming from a nice win against the Suns 126-118 and despite the horrible numbers that they have being home underdogs (8-13 ATS) the fact is that they struggled being short dogs but when being medium/large dogs at home the story is completely different as they are 6-2 ATS being dogs of 6 or more points. I think that the Kings have the tools to be competitive in here. Nocioni is back to starting lineup and the Hornets' lack of dept will favors us during the game. For some reason the Kings are 3-0 ATS against the Hornets in this season as they matchup pretty well against them. Don't be surprised if the Hornets lead early in the game because with CP3 and West on the floor they are a better team, however when those guys sit the Hornets are a terrible team and the Kings will close the gap. I think the Hornets are overrated for tonight. In the last game of this series the Hornets beat the Kings in Sacramento by 7 points but Tyson Chandler and Stojakovic did play. Without them the guideline is completely different.
Note also that with Vlade Divac's jersey retirement scheduled during halftime of tonight's game this is going to be a rare sellout game and the Kings will be fired up for today. I wouldn't be surprised if an upset happens tonight. Take the Kings in here.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Notre Dame -4.5 over Penn State
The Fighting Irish are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite, while the Nittany Lions are 5-17-1 ATS in their last 23 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5. The Irish are 12-3 vs non-conf opponents this year and that was vs teams with a winning pct of .585. The Lions have gone an impressive 14-2 vs thier non-conf opponent, but that was vs teams with a winning pct of just .404, so it really wasn't tha impressive. The Irih defense has been playing better of late as they have allowed just 63 ppg on just 37.9% shooting in their last 6 games. Th Lions have allowed just 62.7 pg overall, but in their last 4 games they have allowed 71.5 ppg. Overall the Irish' defensive efficiency is 86th, while PSU's is 117th. Notre Dame is 16th in offensive efficiency as they have averaged 75.5 ppg overall, including 74 ppg away from home. The Lions have averaged just 66.9 ppg overall , including 65 ppg away from home. Notre Dame is also the better rebounding team (30th to 214th) and they are much better at the FT line (111th to 261st). Notre Dame is much more battle tested than the Lions nd they should move on to the NIT Championship game with ease.
2 UNIT PLAYS
Old Dominion +2.5 Over Bradley
The Monarchs are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games following three or more consecutive home games, while the Braves are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. ODU hs been impressive in the CIT as the have won their 3 gams by an average of 18 ppg and that includes a 38 points win over a good James Madison squad last time out. In that last game ODU shot 46.2% from te field, while holding JMU to just 31.3% from the floor, plus they outrebounded the Dukes 51-21. That's total domination. The Braves have made it to the championship games but they have not impressed in getting here. In gme one thy struggled with Austin Peay, before winning by 7 and then they needed a75ft heave at the buzzer to beat a non-lined Oakland team. inally in their last game they did beat Pacific by 10, but they still only shot 44%from the floor and were outrebounded in the game. Bradley has been outrebounded in their last 4 games and must now take on n ODU team that in 25th in rebounding margin. I see the Monarchs taking tis one by 5+.
Baylor/ San Diego State Over 135
The Over is 9-3 in Aztecs last 12 neutral site games as an underdog. SDSU's offensive efficiency is 86th, while the Bears is 24th. Baylor's games were lower scoring down the stretch of the regular season, but their last6 in the post eason has averaged 142.7 ppg. Baylor's games have averaged 146.3 ppg overall and 67.3% of their games hav score more than tonights total. SDSU plays a slower brand of ball, but feel that the Bears will speed the game up enough to get this one in the 140's.
1 UNIT PLAY
Baylor -1 over San Diego State
The Bears are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 neutral site games, while the Aztecs are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games. The Bears offense will be too much fo SDSU to handle as they move on to the Championship Game.
NBA
4 UNIT PLAY
(Power Angle Play)
CLEVELAND -9.5 ovr Detroit
The Pistons are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game, while the Cavaliers are 19-9 ATS in their last 28 games following a SU win of more than 10 points, plus the Favorite is 8-0 ATS in the last 8 meetings. The Cavs have been on quite a roll lately as they have won their last 12 in a row, and their last 3 wins have been by an average of 20.3 ppg. Cleveland is an amazing 35-1 at home this year and have outscored their oppnents by an average of 14.5 ppg, plus they have beaten Detroit by 21 points in their only meeting played here this year. Not only is the Fav 8-0 the last 8 in the series, but 7 of the 8 wins were by double digits and Cleveland is 3-0 ATS in their last 3 as a home fav in this series and have outscored the Pistons by 17.7 ppg. Detroit has been struggling once again as they have won just 5 of their last 9 games. Detroit is 28th in scoring (94 ppg) and must now take on a Cleveland team that is tops in scoring defense (90.9 ppg) and 2nd in defensive FG% (42.9%). Detrot has also scored just 93.6 pg on the road, while Cleveland has allowed just 88.3 ppg a home. For years the Piston's have ruled the roost in the Central Division, but the tide is changing and the Cavs will look to get revenge every chance they can. Detroit will be lucky to post 80 points in this one as the Cavs take it by 15+.
POWER ANGLE For This Play--- Since Jan of 1996 the Pistons are 0-16 ATS as a regular season dog of a win in which they trailed at the end of each of the first 3 quarters.
3 UNIT PLAYS
(Power Angle Play)
Dallas/ Minnesota Under 200
The Under is 5-1 in Mavericks last 6 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game, while the Under is 9-1 in Timberwolves last 10 vs. Western Conference and 5-1 in their last 6 games following a S.U. win, plus the Under is 7- in the last 8 meetings in Minnesota. The T-Wolves last 8 games have averaged just 192.3 ppg, whie the last 5 meeings here have averaged just 177.8 ppg. Minnesota has averagd just 91.8 ppg in their last 8 games and they average 98.2 ppg overall. Th Dallas offense has not been that spectacular of late, as they hae averaged just 96.8 ppg in their lat 5 games, plus they only score 97 ppg on the road. The Mav last 5 games have averaged just 196.4 ppg, while their road games have put up just 196.9 ppg. This game will not feature 2 of the better defenses in the league, but with both offenses struggling right know I can only see a game in the low 190's at best.
POWER ANGLE For This Play--- Since Jan of 2000 the Under is 15-2-1 when the Mavs are off at least 1 days rest off a loss in which their pct of baskets that were assisted was at least 10% points higher than their seasonal average.
Lakers -5.5 over CHARLOTTE
The Lakers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. Eastern Conference, while the Bobcats are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Lakers are off a bad loss to the Hawks and this has been a team that hs bounced back nicely from losses this year. The Lakers are 11-3 SU off a loss this year and have outscored those opponents by an average of 6. ppg in th process, while each one of those 11 wins have been by 6 points or more. Charlotte has been paying better of late as they have won 5 of ther last 7 games, but only 1 of their wins was vs a winning and their two losses were vs losing teams. Not an impressive resume of late for the Bobcats. The Bobcats hve scored just 93.6 ppg at home, while Lakers have alow just 86.8 ppg in their last 4 games. The Lakers have score 106.3 pg on the road this year and and I just don't see the Bobcats being able to put up enough points to keep this one close. Lakers by double digits here.
2 UNIT PLAYS
Philly/ Atlanta Under 193
The Under is 9-4 in Hawks last 13 games following a ATS win, while the Under is 13-5-1 in 76ers last 19 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Atlantahas scored just 97.3 ppg on the road, while the Sixers have put up just 97.7 ppg at home. The Sixers play excellent defense at home, where they allow just 93.5 ppg on the year. Atlanta has allowed just 96.2 pg overall and 95.2 ppg in their last 5 games. I just don't see this one hitting190 points, let alone 193.
Utah/ Portland Under 192.5
The Under is 13-3 in the Jazz last 16 games after scoing 100 points or more, while the Under is 20-8 in Portland's last 28 vs the Northwest.
1 UNIT PLAY
Chicago/ Indiana Under 215.5