SPORTS ADVISORS
New Orleans (47-29, 32-42-2 ATS) at Miami (41-36, 37-38-2 ATS)
Two teams that wrapped up postseason berths over the weekend will now try to improve their playoff seeding as the Heat host the Hornets at American Airlines Center in South Beach.
New Orleans clinched its second straight playoff spot despite consecutive upset losses to the Warriors (111-103 as a five-point road chalk Friday) and the Jazz (108-94 as a 2½-point home chalk Sunday). The Hornets have followed up a three-game winning streak by going just 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS in their last seven, with their normally stout defense allowing 102.4 points per game during this stretch and six of those seven foes tallying 98 points or more.
Miami is coming off a three-game road trip that began with Wednesday’s tough 98-96 loss at Dallas but ended with victories at Charlotte (97-92 on Friday) and Washington (118-104 on Thursday). The Heat, who cashed in all three road games, are heading back to the postseason after finishing with the worst record in the NBA a year ago.
New Orleans swept the Heat in last year’s season series with a pair of double-digit routs, then pounded Miami 100-89 in this year’s first clash, which took place back in the second week of the season. Although the Hornets pushed as an 11-point home chalk in that contest, they’re still 6-0-1 ATS in the last seven meetings, and they’ve won five of the last six battles outright.
Additionally in this rivalry, the host is on an 8-2 SU roll (5-4-1 ATS), and the favorite is 10-4-1 ATS in the last seven-plus seasons.
The Hornets are mired in ATS funks of 4-9 overall, 1-4 on the road, 5-15 as an underdog, 7-20 as a road pup, 1-4 on Tuesday, 2-8 after a SU loss, 0-5 after a double-digit defeat and 1-4 when going on one day of rest.
Miami is on ATS slides of 0-4 after a double-digit loss, 2-5 against the Southwest Division and 19-41-3 after SU victory. Conversely, the Heat are on positive pointspread stretches of 4-1 overall, 4-1 at home, 8-1-1 on Tuesday, 4-1 as a favorite, 9-1 as a chalk of less than five points and 4-0 against the Western Conference.
For New Orleans, the “under” is runs of 10-3 overall, 8-3 against the Southeast Division, 4-1 against Eastern Conference foes, 4-1-1 as an underdog and 8-2 when playing on one day of rest. The under is also 10-2 in Miami’s last 12 against the Southwest Division, 10-2 in Miami’s last 12 against winning teams and 12-5-1 in Miami’s last 18 when playing on two days’ rest. Finally, the under is 10-2-1 in the last 13 Heat-Hornets clashes in South Beach.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MIAMI and UNDER
Orlando (57-19, 48-27-1 ATS) at Houston (49-28, 37-39-1 ATS)
The Magic, who are sill hoping to chase down the Celtics for the No. 2 overall seed in the Eastern Conference, make their only trip of the season to Houston to take on the Rockets, who have first place in the Southwest Division still within their sights.
Orlando’s late-season surge continued with Saturday’s 88-82 victory at Atlanta as a 1½-point road favorite. The Magic have won 15 of their last 18 games, going 11-6 ATS, including 4-1 ATS in their last five. Stan Van Gundy’s team, which has already clinched the Southeast Division title and trails Boston by one-half game for the East’s No. 2 seed, are also riding a four-game road winning streak (3-1 ATS).
Houston returned from an 0-2 SU and ATS road trip – losses at Phoenix and the Lakers – and hammered Portland 102-88 as a four-point home favorite Sunday. The Rockets are 18-7 SU in their last 25 games, but they’re just 7-8 ATS in their last 15. Rick Adelman’s squad, which trails the Spurs by one-half game for first place in the Southwest Division, has defended its home court with a vengeance lately, going 16-2 SU in its last 18 at the Toyota Center (10-7-1 ATS).
The Rockets have owned Orlando in recent years, winning two in a row, five out of six and eight of the last 10, all SU and ATS, with the winner covering the spread in each of those 10 contests. Back on Nov. 22, the Rockets went to Florida as a two-point underdog and prevailed 100-95 as a two-point underdog. The visitor has taken the last three meetings – all in the underdog role – including the Magic’s 97-92 victory as a 3½-point underdog in their lone trip to Houston last season.
Furthermore, the Rockets are on an 11-2 ATS roll against the Magic, the road team is 8-2 SU and ATS in the last 10 meetings and the ‘dog is 4-1 in the last five clashes.
With the exception of its recent ATS numbers against Houston, Orlando carries nothing but positive pointspread streaks into this game, including 38-18 overall, 59-28-3 on the road, 35-17-1 against the Western Conference, 22-8 against teams with a winning record, 15-6-1 on Tuesday, 23-9-2 when playing on two days’ rest and 4-1 as a favorite.
Houston is on ATS streaks of 21-6 versus the Southeast Division and 14-6 as an underdog of less than five points, but otherwise the Rockets are in ATS funks of 7-16 as a road pup, 9-20 as a home pup of less than five points, 7-17-1 after a double-digit win and 2-5-1 on Tuesday.
For the Magic, the under is on stretches of 8-3 overall, 4-1 on the road, 6-2 against the Western Conference, 7-3 as a favorite and 11-5 when playing on two days’ rest. Similarly, the Rockets are on “under” streaks of 6-1 as an underdog, 7-2 as a home pup and 5-1 versus the Southeast Division. Also, the under is 3-1 in the last four Magic-Rockets battles at the Toyota Center.
ATS ADVANTAGE: HOUSTON and UNDER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Atlanta (1-0) at Philadelphia (0-1)
The Braves look to build off Sunday night’s convincing victory in Philadelphia when they conclude their season-opening two-game series against the Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. Jair Jurrjens (13-10, 3.68 ERA in 2008) is set to toe the rubber for Atlanta opposite grizzled veteran Jamie Moyer (16-7, 3.71).
Behind a sensational outing from newcomer Derek Lowe, Atlanta spoiled the Phillies 2008 World Series championship celebration with a 4-1 victory Sunday. Lowe (eight scoreless innings, two hits allowed, no walks, four strikeouts) pitched a gem and was backed by home runs from Brian McCann, Jeff Francoeur and rookie Jordan Schafer.
Despite Sunday’s loss, the Phillies have still won 24 of their last 31 games (playoffs included), going 13-4 in regular season action and 15-3 at home, with all three home defeats coming against Atlanta.
Including the Braves three straight victories at Citizens Bank Park, the visitor is on a 13-3 run in this N.L. East rivalry. Still, Philadelphia has won 15 of the last 21 clashes overall.
Jurrjens was solid in his first full big-league season, but he turned in just two quality starts in his last seven outings, giving up four earned runs or more in five of those contests and pitching past the sixth inning just once – in his final start of the year at Philadelphia (6-2 defeat). In fact, Jurrjens’ final two starts of 2008 came against the Phillies – one home, one road – and he lost both, giving up six runs (all earned) on 10 hits in 12 innings (4.50 ERA).
Moyer defied his birth certificate last season, given up three earned runs or fewer making 37 starts, including three in the playoffs, yielding three earned runs or fewer in 28 of those outings. Although Moyer was the starter in two of Philadelphia’s three playoff losses, the team still won 10 of his last 13 starts, going 5-1 in his final six efforts at Citizens Bank.
In the regular season last year, Moyer was 6-4 with a 4.61 ERA in 16 home starts and 0-0 despite a 6.55 ERA in two outings against the Braves, both on the road and both one-run Philly wins. For his career, Moyer is 3-8 with a 5.36 ERA versus Atlanta in 14 appearances (13 starts). Meanwhile, Jurrjens was 6-5 with a 3.32 ERA in 15 outings on the highway in 2008, and the right-hander is 1-2 despite a 3.33 ERA in four career starts against the Phillies.
Atlanta is on positive streaks of 5-1 in divisional play, 4-1 on Tuesday and 35-16 after an off day, but it is 6-14 in its last 20 against southpaw starters. Meanwhile, the Phillies are still 38-16 in their last 54 overall, 25-7 in their last 27 at home, 18-6 in their last 24 as a home chalk, 20-7 in their last 27 against righty starters and 27-13 in their last 40 on Tuesday. Also, with Moyer on the hill, Philly is on runs of 8-2 overall, 4-0 at home and 24-7 against the N.L. East.
Including Sunday’s contest, which stayed well under the total, five of the last six meetings between these teams have stayed low. Also, the under is on runs of 5-2 for Atlanta overall, 8-3 for Atlanta on the road, 5-2 for Atlanta as an underdog, 5-1-1 for the Phillies overall, 7-0 for the Phillies as a favorite and 16-7-1 for the Phillies when Moyer starts.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Tampa Bay (0-0) at Boston (0-0)
After having their season-opener postponed by Mother Nature on Monday, the Rays and Red Sox will try once again to square off for the first time since Game 7 of the 2008 American League Championship Series. A pair of aces are still slated to take the mound, with Boston’s Josh Beckett (12-10, 4.03 in 2008) opposing Tampa Bay’s James Shields (14-8, 3.56).
The Rays are taking the field for a meaningful game for the first time since the bizarre ending to the 2008 World Series, which saw the upstart club lose the best-of-7 battle to the Phillies in five games, including three straight losses in Philadelphia to end the Fall Classic. Tampa Bay won the A.L. East with a 97-65 record, the first time in the franchise’s sorry history that it finished better than .500. However, the Rays were just 40-41 on the road in regular-season action.
Boston (95-67) finished two games behind Tampa Bay in the division standings but won the wild-card berth, then took out the A.L. West champion Angels in four games in the best-of-5 divisional round. The Red Sox lost three of the first four games to the Rays in the ALCS, rallied to force a Game 7, but lost in Game 7 in Tampa Bay by a 3-1 final.
Including the ALCS, the Rays won 11 of the last 16 meetings with the Red Sox, going 4-2 in Beantown. Still, going back several years, Boston is 40-11 in the last 51 clashes with the Rays at Fenway Park and 8-2 all-time against Shields, including 2-0 in last year’s playoffs.
The Red Sox went just 1-5 in Beckett’s last six starts, including 1-2 against the Rays (all in Tampa). In those three games against Tampa (two in the playoffs), Beckett gave up 11 runs (all earned) in 17 1/3 innings (5.71 ERA).
Shields earned Tampa Bay’s first-ever – and only – World Series victory, shutting out the Phillies over 5 2/3 innings in Game 2, prevailing 4-2. The young right-hander went 2-2 with a 2.88 in four postseason starts, including 0-2 despite a solid 3.46 ERA in two starts against Boston.
Beckett made just 12 starts at Fenway last year, going 5-5 with a 5.65 ERA, compared with 7-5 and a 2.85 ERA in 15 road efforts. On the bright side, Beckett was 2-1 with a 2.06 ERA in five regular-season outings against the Rays, and for his career, he’s 5-3 with a 3.11 ERA in 10 starts against Tampa.
The Rays are on runs of 10-3 against the A.L. East, 5-0 on Tuesday, 16-7 with Shields on the bump and 5-1 when Shields pitches on the road, but they’re also in slumps of 48-107 as an underdog, 0-4 on the road, 12-26 when Shields takes the mound as a pup and 6-20 when Shields is a road underdog.
Boston is 64-29 in its last 93 home games, 19-8 in its last 27 on Tuesday and 13-3 in its last 16 in series openers. However, with Beckett on the hill, the BoSox are in funks of 1-5 overall, 0-6 at home (all as a favorite) and 1-5 against A.L. East rivals.
Shields was a much different pitcher at home last year (9-2, 2.59 ERA) than on the road (5-6, 4.82). Additionally, he was 2-2 with a 5.85 ERA in four regular-season starts versus the Red Sox, including 0-2 with a 21.21 ERA at Fenway Park, dropping his career numbers against Boston to 2-4 with a 5.23 ERA in eight outings overall (0-3 with a 10.13 ERA in three games at Fenway).
The under is 4-1 in Beckett’s last five starts against Tampa Bay and 5-2 in Shields’ last seven starts against Boston. Additionally, the under is on runs of 5-1-1 for the Rays overall, 11-2 for the Rays when Shields is an underdog, 5-1-1 overall with Beckett on the mound and 19-9 when Boston faces a right-handed starter.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and UNDER
Jimmy The Moose
Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jays
These teams combined for 17 runs last night to easily play over the total and tonight's game will follow suit. Detroit has played the over in 5 of their last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter. The Tigers can hit the ball and the Jays have a good young nucleus of players that may be ready to take the next step. The Tigers send Jackson to the mound to make his first start for his new team. His last 3 starts last season and 4 of his last 5 played the over. The Jays send Purcey to the mound and he'll give up a few runs.
Play on: Over
VEGAS EXPERTS
Portland Trail Blazers at Memphis Grizzlies
All good things in life must come to an end and thus is the case with Memphis' recent four-game surge, which happens to include three outright dog wins. The Blazers have won and covered four straight in Memphis, including an 11-point win here last month, not to mention a 20-point beat down of the Grizzlies at home where they gave up just 66 points for the game. Portland is a young team with its eyes on the playoffs. Memphis is a team that's 3-14 ATS vs. the Northwest Division.
Play on: Portland
Game Time Sports Advisors
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: Chicago White Sox -126
We are backing the WHITE SOX as our free play. Lots of the so called "experts" think this a big year for KC after not finishing last in about 50 years. Let's back the homers and their veteran line-up.
James Patrick Sports
Hornets vs. Heat
New Orleans has had a lot of success against the Heat in Miami as they have cashed 6 in a row at South Beach and 5 of 6 meetings of late. The series has seen the road team cash 7 of 10 and James Patick Sports NBA complimentary selection on this Tuesday Fan Appreciation Day at James Patrick Sports is New Orleans Hornets.
Big Al Mcmordie
Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels
Prediction: Under
At 10:05 pm, our member selection is on the 'under' in the game between Oakland and Los Angeles. Trevor Cahill will get his first major league start for Oakland, and will have the benefit of not being seen before by the Angel bats. The A's also have gone 'under' the total in 40 of their last 60 games as a road underdog, and 64 of their last 101 at night. Los Angeles went 'under' in 46 of 80 home games last year, and 23 of the last 37 meetings between Oakland and Los Angeles have gone 'under.' Look for another low-scoring game here in Anaheim tonight.
Stephen Nover
Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants
PICK: Over
Anytime Jeff Suppan is starting and the total is less than eight, I'm taking a hard look at the over.
This matchup justifies an over play. Suppan is a journeyman, innings-eater type of starter unworthy of having a total this low next to his name even if Tim Lincecum is the opposing pitcher and the game is being played in a pitcher's park in cold and wet conditions.
It's expected the Giants are going to be weak offensively again. But we don't know that yet. Cornermen Pablo Sandoval and Travis Ishikawa had great springs.
Suppan can make any offense look strong. He has a career 4.99 ERA versus the Giants in eight starts. The Brewers are vulnerable at closer with Trevor Hoffman sidelined.
Milwaukee had a great hitting spring. Lincecum won the Cy Young Award last season, but struggled versus the Brewers. He was 1-2 with a 5.25 ERA against Milwaukee in four starts.
This is a day game with the first pitch scheduled to be thrown at around 1:05 Pacific time. The heaviest rains are expected to hit San Francisco between 11 a.m. and 4 p.m.
So there's a good possibility of an extended rain delay, which could mean a shorten outing for Lincecum.
This is a two star rating for me.
Sports Gambling Hotline
Philadelphia +5 at CHARLOTTE
We are on a 6-2 comp play run as we hit the hardwood this Tuesday night.
Take the points and the 76ers as they pay a visit on the Bobcats.
Philly was just blasted at New Jersey on Sunday, and they were also handed a setback the last time these 2 teams played on March 27th in Philly, 100-95 as the 4 1/2-point favorite.
Expect the Sixers to get back on track tonight we a solid showing, as Charlotte has not been playing well down the stretch, losing 3 straight, and 5 of their last 8. The Bobcats have also failed their last 4 tries when installed as the favorite.
Philly is 22-17-2 this season when playing with 1-day's rest, and we like them tonight plus the points to up that mark to 23-17-2.
Play on the Sixers.
2♦ PHILADELPHIA
Jeff Benton
Philadelphia at CHARLOTTE -5
The four-day winning streak with the freebies ended with Monday’s loss on the Astros. Still, I’m 8-3 over the last 11 days with complimentary selections, and I’m getting back on track Tuesday by backing the Bobcats at home against the Sixers in NBA action.
Charlotte’s playoff hopes are dwindling by the day, but the Bobcats continue to fight their asses off, and I expect nothing less tonight. Yes, they’ve lost three straight games to playoff-contenders Boston, Miami and Detroit (going 1-2 ATS), but prior to that, Charlotte had won and covered three in a row, beginning with a 100-95 upset victory over these Sixers in Philadelphia as a 4½-point road underdog March 27.
With that win, the Larry Brown-led Bobcats are now 3-1 SU and ATS in the last four meetings with Brown’s former employer, including two easy home wins by scores of 115-109 last year and 93-84 as a three-point ‘dog back on Nov. 24. In fact, prior to the Bobcats’ five-point win in the City of Brotherly Love in the most recent meeting last month, the home team had won eight of nine meetings (8-1 ATS).
What’s more, while the Sixers are indeed within just a half-game of the Heat for the No. 5 spot in the Eastern Conference playoff standings, the fact remains that Philly – after a long, tough, up-and-down season – officially punched its playoff ticket over the weekend. As a result, I think the 76ers are primed for a letdown tonight.
Finally, it’s hard to argue with these positive trends for the Bobcats: They’re 15-5 ATS in their last 20 home games, 10-4 ATS in their last 14 in the rare role of favorite, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 as a home favorite and 6-0 ATS in their last six against the Atlantic Division. Oh, and then there’s this: Charlotte has cashed in seven of the last eight meetings with the Sixers in Carolina! Lay this reasonable price with total confidence.
3♦ CHARLOTTE
Bobby Maxwell
Orlando pk at HOUSTON
On the pro hardwood tonight for a FREE play on the Magic as they make the trek to Houston to play the Rockets.
Just no way we go against the Magic in this one as Orlando is beating everybody and doing it at home and on the road. Orlando goes to Houston tonight and grabs this victory.
The Magic have won eight of nine overall, covered the number in four of the last five and they've won four straight on the highway (3-1 ATS), including an 88-82 win in Atlanta on Saturday, cashing as 1 1/2-point favorites. The defense is what has stepped up lately for Orlando, not allowing an opponent to get into triple digits in six straight games.
Houston had dropped three of four before getting a 102-88 win over Portland on Sunday, cashing as four-point favorites. This team's offense has been shaky, either getting into triple digits or not getting more than 87.
In this series, the road team has won six of seven and eight of the last 10 meetings (SU and ATS). Back in November, the Rockets went into Orlando and got a 100-95 victory as two-point 'dogs, and last season the Magic went to Houston and got a 97-92 win as 3 1/2-point pups.
Orlando is on ATS tears of 38-18 overall, 59-28-3 on the highway and 23-9-2 when playing on two days of rest. No way we go against maybe the hottest team in the NBA. Play the Magic.
3♦ ORLANDO
Karl Garrett
Tampa Bay +130 at BOSTON
The Cavaliers rolled the Spurs as my Sunday comp play to make it 11-2 the last 13 days with my comp plays!
After a Monday rain out in Beantown, coming right back with the defeding American League champion Rays plus money against the Red Sox.
Tampa has struggled at Fenway in regular season's past, but after exorcising some demons in last October's ALCS against Boston, I don't see any reason they can't snag an opening day upset win over the Sox.
Josh Beckett's home ERA last season was well over 5, and there is no reason the Rays shouldn't be able to get their licks in against him.
James Shields has had his ups and downs against Boston, but the righty did win 14 games last season, which is 2 more wins than Beckett sported at the end of the season.
Underdog play at Fenway Park on Tampa Bay Tuesday.
1♦ TAMPA BAY
Chris Jordan
Washington at FLORIDA -160
We're coming right back with another Run Line Play on the Florida Marlins, just as we scored with yesterday, blasting the Nationals 12-6.
Let's take another shot with them on the Run Line here. Florida will tee off on its former hurler, Scott Olsen, as I believe he’ll have a tough time throwing at his former teammates. I’d much rather side with Josh Johnson here, as he’ll be looking to prove he belongs in the No. 2 slot in the rotation, one year after opening the season on the disabled list, as he was recovering from Tommy John ligament replacement surgery.
Now the 25-year-old right-hander will look to pick up where he left off, as he gave the Fish a strong showing in the second half of the 2008 season, finishing with seven wins in eight decisions, while logging 87-1/3 innings. And make note, two of those wins one year ago were against Washington.
Washington will struggle with Johnson’s downhill delivery that makes him quite imposing standing a stout 6-foot-7. That stiff front leg delivery is followed by a spring-coiled arm that fills up the strike zone with a variety of pitches, include an inside heater that freezes batters quite often.
Look for a dominating performance by Johnson, and another big night at the plate by the Fish.
1♦ MARLINS RUN LINE
Matt Rivers
For Tuesday take the points with the Knicks.
There is no doubt that the Knicks have been fairly crappy over the past month plus and da Bulls are still motivated looking for that final playoff spot in the East but I still do not believe that Chicago can be laying a number like this today.
The Knicks are a funny bunch this season. They have certainly shown some upside when you don't think it's there but they have also shown a huge implosion capability and lose games by a billion. I'm not saying that necessarily one of those Jekyl and Hyde characteristics will rear its head today but I do believe that Nate Robinson, David Lee, Al Harrington and the visitors can compete for sure in this game and especially after the quality victory North of the border on Sunday in Toronto.
Ben Gordon, Derrick Rose, John Salmons and Brad Miller have played well over the past few months. The trades certainly turned out to be a good thing for Vinny Del Negro's team but the past three games have not been all that good and I don't believe this Chicago team is worthy of laying a big price like this.
The Bulls lost two straight and over the weekend were tied with the Nets (as the 8 point chalk) with two minutes to go before New Jersey went ice cold and suffered a terrible beat against the number in a nine point Chicago win. That was a third straight rather poor effort for this Chicago team and in a tight contest today in which either side truly could prevail I am just fine with the visitors from the Big Apple.
Do not be shocked by an outright!
Tony Weston
Today's Selection:
Alright, this thing is getting back on track tonight. Forget yesterday or even the last few days because they are over and barely even memories at this point.
Tonight, we’re getting back on the winning track as we’re taking the Seattle Mariners on the road at the Minnesota Twins.
Against Minnesota’s ace Francisco Liriano last night the Mariners got the offense going early and often, touching up Liriano for 4 earned runs in 7 innings of work. The Mariners produced up and down the lineup and cruised to a 6-1 victory.
Tonight, you’ll see much of the same as Seattle’s revamped lineup gets over on Twins scheduled starting pitcher Nick Blackburn.
Consider that no matter how bad the Mariners have been and how good Minnesota has been, Seattle has still take 3 of their last 4 meetings from the Twins. And going back to last season Minnesota is only 3-7 its last 10 games against the AL West and the team has only won one if its last 7 games when Blackburn takes the mound against the AL West.
Tonight, Seattle will hand Blackburn another loss against the AL West and get over in this matchup. Take the Mariners on the road in this one.
3♦ MARINERS
JIM FEIST
DETROIT TIGERS / TORONTO BLUE JAYS
Take DETROIT TIGERS
Detroit has a powerful offense and upgraded the infield defense significantly for this season. Miguel Cabrera will play first base after beginning last season as the Tigers' third baseman (he could handle it). 2B Placido Polanco is a sure-handed second baseman, along with SS Adam Everett. Moving Brandon Inge to third base is a terrific move. He reads the ball correctly and quickly off the bat, and rarely is betrayed by his footwork, plus his arm is strong and accurate. New starter Edwin Jackson is off a 14-11 campaign with Tampa, and was eve better on the road (8-5). Toronto doesn't have as strong an offense and starter David Purcey is off a 3-6 season with a 5.54 ERA. The visitors get the win at a great price. Play the Tigers.