SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(8) Detroit (39-44, 34-49 ATS) at (1) Cleveland (67-16, 51-32 ATS)
The top-seeded Cavaliers look to go up 2-0 in their opening-round best-of-7 series against the Pistons inside Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland.
Cleveland jumped out early and never looked back in Game 1 on Saturday, winning 102-84 as an 11½-point favorite. Not surprisingly, LeBron James was the dominant force for the Cavaliers, scoring 38 points, grabbing eight rebounds and handing out seven assists. Cleveland shot 52.9 percent from the floor and committed just four turnovers in the easy victory.
Detroit has now lost four straight overall and five in a row at the betting window. Furthermore, the Pistons are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine contests and 1-7 in their last eight against Central Division rivals.
Cleveland continues to be the league’s most dominant team at home, posting a 40-2 record (29-13 ATS) at Quicken Loans Arena. The Cavs are on a 6-1 SU and ATS run overall, and they are looking to advance past the first round of the playoffs for the third consecutive year.
Including Saturday’s win and cover, the Cavaliers have won four of five head-to-head matchups with the Pistons this season (3-2 ATS), including the last four in a row. Cleveland is 12-5 ATS in the last 17 meetings with Detroit (playoffs included) and 6-2 ATS in the last eight at home. Finally, the chalk has cashed in nine of the last 10 overall.
James and the Cavs reached the Eastern Conference semifinals last year, where they lost a thrilling seven-game set to the Celtics. They beat the Wizards in six games in the opening round (4-2 ATS) and they went 10-3 ATS in the playoffs last season, including 5-1 ATS at home.
The veteran Pistons have reached the Eastern Conference finals each of the last six years, including last season when they fell to the Celtics in six games (3-3 ATS). Detroit played the Cavaliers in the 2007 Eastern Conference Finals, losing in six games and failing to cash in each contest. Detroit is 4-2 ATS in its last six first-round playoff games while Cleveland is 7-2 ATS in its last nine first-round contests. Detroit is just 18-24 SU and 13-29 ATS away from home this season.
The Pistons are on several negative ATS slides, including 1-8 after a straight-up loss, 1-5 on the road, 1-7 against Central Division teams and 1-6 as a pup, but they’re still 18-8-3 ATS in their last 29 conference quarterfinal games. Cleveland is on a host of ATS runs, including 35-16 at home overall, 31-13 as a home favorite, 8-1 as a playoff favorite and 5-0 against the Eastern Conference.
These two topped the total on Saturday, ending a seven-game “under” run in this rivalry. Still, the under is 29-7 in the last 36 battles overall and 18-6 in the last 24 in Cleveland.
Detroit is on “over” streaks of 4-1 overall, 8-3-1 on the road and 12-4-1 against Eastern Conference teams, but the team is also on “under” swings of 18-8-1 as a ‘dog in the playoffs and 24-10-1 when it gets two days off. The Cavaliers have gone over the total in six of their last nine overall, but otherwise it’s all “unders” for the squad, including 6-2-1 at home, 39-20-1 as a home chalk, 4-2 on two days of rest, 7-4-1 as a favorite and 22-9 after a spread-cover,.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND and UNDER
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(5) Houston (54-29, 41-41-1 ATS) at (4) Portland (54-29, 46-37 ATS)
The Rockets completely dominated the young Trail Blazers in Game 1 and will now look to take a 2-0 lead back to Houston when this best-of-7 clash resumes with Game 2 inside the Rose Garden.
Houston jumped out to an 11-point first-quarter lead in Saturday’s series opener and never looked back, spanking the Blazers 108-81 and easily cashing as a five-point ‘dog. The Rockets got a monster game from point guard Aaron Brooks who put up 27 points and dished out seven assists, pairing nicely with Yao Ming’s 24 points and nine rebounds (9-for-9 on field goals and 6-for-6 on free throws). Houston shot an amazing 58.5 percent from the field while holding Portland to just 41.7 percent and allowing just two Blazers to reach double-digit scoring.
The Rockets have won six of their last seven overall (5-2 ATS). They averaged just 85 points in their final two regular-season contests and they failed to score more than 93 points in four of their last seven contests before busting out in Game 1.
Prior to Saturday’s embarrassing loss, the Trail Blazers – who are back in the postseason for the first time in six years – had won six straight to end the regular season (5-1 ATS). During that winning streak, they didn’t allow a team to get more than 98 points, but they looked helpless against Houston on Saturday.
Saturday’s win was the first for a road team in this series this season, but the Rockets have now won eight of the last nine in this rivarly (5-4 ATS), including four of the last five played in Oregon (3-2 ATS).
The Rockets are in the playoffs for the fourth consecutive season, but they have lost six straight playoff series and haven’t gotten out of the first round since 1997. They were eliminated by the Jazz in six games last season (3-3 ATS) and they are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 first-round playoff contests. Meanwhile, in addition to not making the postseason for six straight years prior to this season, Portland hasn’t advanced out of the first round since 2000.
The Blazers are now 34-8 (27-15 ATS) while the Rockets are 21-21 SU and ATS on the highway.
Houston is on ATS slides of 2-5 on the road and 9-23-1 after a spread-cover, but it is on positive pointspread runs of 5-2 overall, 4-1 in conference quarterfinal games, 6-1 against Northwest Division teams and 5-0-1 after getting two days off. Portland is on a plethora of positive ATS trends, including 13-4 overall, 21-9 as a favorite, 7-4 in first-round playoff games, 7-2 after getting two days off, 6-1 at home and 5-2 as a favorite of five to 10 ½ points.
The over was the play in Game 1 on Saturday, improving to 5-0 in the last five head-to-head matchups. Also, for the Trailblazers, the over is on runs of 7-2 at home, 5-0 against teams with winning records and 4-1 as a favorite of five to 10½-points. Conversely, the Rockets are on a host of “under” streaks, including 9-4 on the road, 5-3 as playoff ‘dogs, 6-2 as a pup and 4-2 after getting two days off.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PORTLAND
(8) Utah (48-35, 39-44 ATS) at (1) L.A. Lakers (66-17, 44-39 ATS)
The Lakers look to continue their dominance of the Jazz when they host Game 2 of this best-of-7 series at the Staples Center.
Despite sloppy rebounding play, Los Angeles still cruised to a 113-100 victory in Sunday’s series opener, barely covering as a 12-point home favorite. The Lakers, who ended the regular season with a 13-point home win over Utah a week ago tonight, shot a blistering 55.6 percent from the field in Game 1 and held Utah to 39.1 percent, and four Lakers scored in double figures, led by Kobe Bryant (24 points). However, L.A. got outrebounded 46-38, with the Jazz holding a 20-7 edge on the offensive glass.
Including consecutive wins over Utah, Los Angeles is 8-1 in its last nine games (6-3 ATS) and has won seven straight at home and 14 of its last 15 at Staples Center (8-7 ATS).
The Jazz have now dropped eight of their last 10 overall, going 2-11 ATS in their last 13. Utah also is mired in road slumps of 1-7 SU and ATS and 2-10 SU and ATS. Jerry Sloan’s squad has now given up an average of more than 110 ppg in its last 11 outings and it gives up an average of 106.5 ppg on the road for the season.
These teams met in the second round of the playoffs last year, with Los Angeles winning the series in six games (3-2-1 ATS). Including Sunday’s victory, the Lakers are now 4-1 SU and ATS against the Jazz this season. Also, they’re 11-4-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings with Utah overall and 9-1 ATS in the last 10 clashes in Hollywood. Finally, the home team is on a 9-1 SU roll in this rivalry (playoffs included), and the host is 14-4-1 ATS in the last 19 series battles.
For the season, the Lakers are 37-5 in their building but just 21-21 ATS. The Jazz are 15-27 on the road (17-25 ATS), including 1-13 SU and 2-12 ATS in 14 road games against Western Conference playoff teams.
L.A. has cashed in six straight first-round playoff games since 2007 and is on additional ATS streaks of 5-1 overall (all against the Western Conference), 5-0 as a favorite and 9-3 after a SU win. However, Los Angeles is only 8-16 ATS in its last 24 games when laying 11 points or more.
The Jazz are still 8-4 ATS in their last 12 first-round postseason contests, but only 1-4 ATS in the last five. Other negative pointspread trends for Utah include 2-11 overall, 1-7 on the highway (0-4 last four), 2-15 as an underdog, 2-10 versus the Western Conference, 1-5 against the Pacific Division and 3-7 on Tuesday.
Game 1 on Sunday barely went over the total, making the over 18-6 in the last 24 meetings, including 6-0 in the last six, and each of the last five battles in Los Angeles have hurdled the posted price. Additionally, Utah is on “over” runs of 9-2 overall, 8-0 on the road, 7-0 against winning teams, 8-2 versus the Western Conference, 40-19-2 as an underdog and 4-0 as a playoff underdog. For the Lakers, the over is on streaks of 5-1 overall and 5-1 against the Northwest Division.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. LAKERS and OVER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
N.Y. Mets (6-6) at St. Louis (8-5)
The inconsistent Mets open a brief three-game road trip at Busch Stadium, where they’ll trot out Oliver Perez (1-1, 7.84 ERA) to oppose the Cardinals’ Todd Wellemeyer (1-1, 4.50).
New York is coming off Sunday’s 4-2 home setback to the Brewers, snapping a modest two-game winning streak. The Mets, who have yet to win or lose more than two consecutive games in 2009, started the season on the road, splitting six games, but they’re otherwise on positive streaks of 10-4 against the N.L. Central, 7-2 on Tuesday and 13-6 versus right-handed starters.
The Cardinals haven’t been on the field since Saturday, when they suffered a walk-off 7-5 loss at the Cubs in 11 innings. St. Louis, which had Sunday’s game at Chicago rained out then had a scheduled off day Monday, has followed up a 7-1 run with back-to-back losses. Tony LaRussa’s squad has won four straight home games and four straight against southpaw starters, and the Redbirds are on further upticks of 14-5 overall and 6-2 against the N.L. East.
Since St. Louis beat New York in seven games to claim the 2006 National League pennant, these teams have met 14 times, with the Mets winning nine of those contests, including taking five of seven at Busch Stadium.
Perez got blasted in his first start of the season on the road at Cincinnati (eight runs, five hits, five walks allowed in 4 1/3 innings), but he rebounded with a sterling outing at new Citi Field on Wednesday, holding the Padres to a run on three hits in six innings en route to a 7-2 victory. With Perez pitching, New York is on runs of 4-1 on the road, 7-0 in series openers and 10-3 versus winning teams, but it has lost five of Perez’s last six outings against the N.L. Central and four of his last five starts against the Cardinals.
Like Perez, Wellemeyer bounced back nicely from a poor 2009 debut, scattering seven hits and a run over seven innings in a 2-1 road win at Arizona. Despite that effort, St. Louis is just 3-6 in the right-hander’s last nine trips to the mound, even though he’s allowed three earned runs or fewer in seven of those nine contests. The Redbirds have also dropped nine of Wellemeyer’s last 13 outings at home, including four straight as a home underdog.
Perez is 2-5 with a 4.65 ERA in 12 career starts against the Cardinals, including 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA in just one outing at Busch Stadium. Wellemeyer has faced New York five times (two starts, three relief appearances), going 0-1 with a 6.89 ERA. That includes a 7-4 home loss last year when he gave up six runs and 12 hits in five innings.
The over is 9-1-2 in Perez’s last 12 starts overall and 4-0-1 in his last five on the road, but the under is 6-2 in Wellemeyer’s last eight overall.
The over is 5-0-1 in the last six meetings between these squads and 4-0-1 in the last five clashes at Busch Stadium. Additionally, the over for the Mets is on streaks of 11-5 against the N.L. Central, 5-1 on Tuesday and 12-5-4 after a day off, while St. Louis has topped the total in five straight overall and eight of its last 11 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Minnesota (7-7) at Boston (7-6)
Two teams coming off weekend sweeps meet up at Fenway Park, where the Twins’ Scott Baker (0-1, 13.50) is set to square off against veteran knuckleballer Tim Wakefield (1-1, 3.00).
Boston capped a four-game sweep of Baltimore with Monday’s 12-1 Patriots Day rout, as reigning league MVP Dustin Pedroia went 4-for-6 with three RBIs and three runs scored. The Red Sox have won five in a row by the aggregate score of 38-16 while batting .318 as a team during the streak. Terry Francona’s club is off to a 5-2 start at home and is 69-31 in its last 100 contests at Fenway Park. Additionally, Boston is on streaks of 14-4 in series openers, 40-16 against A.L. Central opponents, 20-9 on Tuesday and 4-0 against right-handed starters.
After losing seven of their first 11 games out of the gate, the Twins got healthy against the Angels over the weekend, sweeping a three-game set and scoring 23 runs in the process after mustering just 14 runs total during a 1-5 slump. Minnesota has won 16 of its last 21 contests after a day off, but is otherwise in slumps of 3-9 on the road, 3-10 as an underdog and 2-5 against the A.L. East.
The home team won six of seven meetings between these squads last year, with Boston sweeping all three contests at Fenway by scores of 1-0, 6-5 and 18-5. The Twins have lost five of their last six at Fenway.
Wakefield took a no-hitter into the eighth inning at Oakland on Wednesday and finished with a complete-game, four-hitter in an 8-2 victory that started Boston’s current five-game winning streak. The right-hander went 7-4 with a 3.10 ERA in 14 home starts last year, and he’s 13-5 with a 4.31 ERA in 25 career appearances (22 starts) against the Twins. However, in his lone outing against Minnesota last year, Wakefield was awful, allowing seven runs (six earned) in 2 2/3 innings and losing 9-8 on the road.
Baker’s 2009 debut was a disaster, as he got lit up for six runs in four innings of Wednesday’s 12-2 home loss to Toronto. It was in sharp contrast to the way the young right-hander finished last season, when he had seven quality starts in his last eight outings and posted a 2.39 ERA during that stretch. Baker was 6-3 with a 3.95 ERA in 16 road efforts in 2008, and in his first-ever start against the Red Sox last July at Fenway, he pitched seven scoreless innings, but got a no-decision in his team’s 1-0 loss.
With Wakefield pitching, the Sox are on streaks of 35-17 at home, 23-10 as a favorite and 8-3 against the A.L. Central. Meanwhile, the Twins are 4-10 in Baker’s last 14 Tuesday outings.
The over is 6-1 in Baker’s last seven starts overall and 7-2 in his last nine on the road, while the over is 4-0-1 in Wakefield’s last five overall, 15-6-1 in his last 22 at home and 8-3-1 in his last 12 when facing A.L. Central squads.
Four of the last five Twins-Red Sox battles have topped the total. Also, the “over” is on streaks for Boston of 8-1 overall, 7-3 at home and 8-2-1 on Tuesday, while the Twins sport “over” trends of 4-1 overall 10-3-1 as an underdog and 10-3-2 on Tuesday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and OVER
DUNKEL
Utah at LA Lakers
The Lakers are coming off a 113-100 win in Game One and are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring 100 or more points in the previous game, while the Jazz are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing 100 or more points. Los Angeles is the pick (-11 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Lakers favored by 13. Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (-11 1/2).
Game 721-722: Detroit at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 117.944; Cleveland 128.146
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 10; 184
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 11 1/2; 177 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+11 1/2); Over
Game 723-724: Houston at Portland
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 126.749; Portland 128.875
Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 2; 192
Vegas Line & Total: Portland by 6; 184
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+6); Over
Game 725-726: Utah at LA Lakers
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 114.871; LA Lakers 127.986
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 13; 208
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 11 1/2; 211 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (-11 1/2); Under
NHL
Colorado at Arizona
The Rockies are 6-2 in Franklin Morales' last 8 starts as an underdog, while the Diamondbacks are 1-6 in their last 7 starts as a home favorite between -110 and -150. Colorado is the underdog pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has the Rockies favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+110).
Game 951-952: Florida at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Sanchez) 15.954; Pittsburgh (Karstens) 14.917
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Florida (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-130); Under
Game 953-954: Atlanta at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Kawakami) 14.517; Washington (Martis) 15.670
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-135); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+125); Over
Game 955-956: Milwaukee at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Parra) 14.846; Philadelphia (Moyer) 15.999
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 10
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 957-958: LA Dodgers at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 15.356; Houston (Ortiz) 15.402
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-140); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+130); Over
Game 959-960: Cincinnati at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Owings) 14.662; Cubs (Harden) 15.645
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-230); No Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-230); N/A
Game 961-962: NY Mets at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Perez) 15.939; St. Louis (Wellemeyer) 14.650
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+125); Under
Game 963-964: Colorado at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Morales) 15.039; Arizona (Petit) 13.876
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Arizona (-120); 10
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+110); Over
Game 965-966: San Diego at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Peavy) 14.366; San Francisco (Cain) 14.444
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: San Diego (-115); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+105); Over
Game 967-968: Texas at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (McCarthy) 15.417; Toronto (Halladay) 16.515
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Toronto (-230); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-230); Under
Game 969-970: Oakland at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Eveland) 15.054; NY Yankees (Pettitte) 15.912
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 10
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-210); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-210); Over
Game 971-972: Kansas City at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Ponson) 17.204; Cleveland (Laffey) 15.963
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-175); 10
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+165); Over
Game 973-974: Chicago White Sox at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Contreras) 15.534; Baltimore (Bergesen) 15.947
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-120); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+110); Under
Game 975-976: Minnesota at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Baker) 16.315; Boston (Wakefield) 14.749
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Boston (-170); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+160); Over
Game 977-978: Detroit at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Galarraga) 15.397; LA Angels (Weaver) 15.707
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-110); Under
Game 979-980: Tampa Bay at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Sonnanstine) 15.641; Seattle (Washburn) 14.008
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Seattle (-115); 8
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+105); Under
NHL
San Jose at Anaheim
The Ducks are 6-1 in their last 7 games as an underdog, while the Sharks are 1-4 in their last 5 playoff games as a favorite. Anaheim is the underdog pick (+115) according to Dunkel, which has the Ducks favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (+115).
Game 7-8: Pittsburgh at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 11.980; Philadelphia 12.234
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-135); Under
Game 9-10: Detroit at Columbus
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 11.768; Columbus 10.111
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-155); 5
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-155); Under
Game 11-12: New Jersey at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 10.549; Carolina 12.262
Dunkel Line & Total: Carolina by 1 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Carolina (-150); 5
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (-150); Over
Game 13-14: Vancouver at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Vancouver 11.904; St. Louis 11.134
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-160); 5
Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (-160); Over
Game 15-16: San Jose at Anaheim
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 10.285; Anaheim 11.598
Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-135); 5
Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (+115); Over
Cajun Sports
San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: San Diego Padres
AT&T Park will be the site of tonight’s National League battle between the host San Francisco Giants and the visiting San Diego Padres. The Padres are 9-4 to the start the 2009 campaign and have posted a record of 4-2 on their current road swing with Monday’s game against Philly postponed. They led that four-game series 2 to 1 and were in position for their second series win in three years in Philadelphia, but Monday's finale was called because of rain. San Diego will send ace right-hander Jake Peavy to the bump on Tuesday with his record of 2-1 and an ERA of 3.98. Peavy has already faced this Giants team once this season back on April 11th he struck out ten and came within two outs of a complete game in a 6 to 3 home win. Peavy has had success when he takes the bump versus the Giants with a career mark of 12-8 and an ERA of 3.30 in 24 starts. His last two trips to the Bay were back in 07 and he went 2-0 with an ERA of 1.38. San Francisco has struggled out of the gate with a record of 4-8 on the season which included losing all three in a road series versus the Padres back on April 10-12. The one good sign for the Giants is they have won four straight at home versus San Diego but they will send Matt Cain to the hill and he has not had much success after going 3-0 with a 1.64 ERA in his first five starts against the Padres. He has failed to beat them since September 2006. In 10 starts after that, Cain is 0-5 with a 3.59 ERA and has received only 16 runs of support. A check of the database shows Cain struggles in each of these situations, against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record he is 9-27 the last 3 seasons, 2-14 against the money line vs. teams outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs per game on the season, 7-21 against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 the last 3 seasons, 9-26 against the money line in the first half of the season the last 3 seasons and 8-22 against the money line against division opponents over the last 3 seasons. Finally we have a MLB system that tells us to Play AGAINST any MLB (NL) team with an on base percentage .310 or worse on the season, after scoring 2 runs or less in 4 straight games, 46-16 W/L +28.4 Units since 1997. With the pitching edge and the overall better team we will back the visitor here as the Padres put an end to that four-game road losing streak to the Giants.
Graded Selection: 2* San Diego Padres 4 San Francisco Giants 3
Craig Trapp
Florida Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Florida Marlins
Craig did well last week with his free R/L play of week and he looks to keep up the streak. This early in season love to take the favorite run line as there usually is more blowouts than late in the season. Lets look at the records and trends in this game:
Records
Florida Marlins 11-2 Sanchez 1-0 (1.65 ERA)
Pittsburgh Pirates 7-6 Karstsens 0-0 (6.75 ERA)
Trends
Marlins are 6-0 in their last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Marlins are 10-4 in Sanchezs last 14 starts as a favorite.
Pirates are 15-36 in their last 51 games as an underdog.
Pirates are 0-6 in Karstens' last 6 home starts.
Florida is coming off a really embarassing loss to this same team on Monday. What looked like a possible rain out ended up being a blow out with an overcast sky. Florida's bats were silenced and they got smashed in there 2nd loss of the season. Pittsburgh used there free winner of the series and the bats will be silenced by very good pitcher from FLA Sanchez. Sanchez looks like he is finally back from arm troubles and today will shut down PIT. FLA bats had been hot all year and today will get hot again and win going away. Run line is play in this game!! +130 what a value play on best record in the league. SCORE FLA 6 - PIT 1
JIM FEIST
NEW YORK METS / ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
Take: NEW YORK METS
The Mets are getting their act in gear, winning two out of three over the Brewers. Starter Oliver Perez is a dog here, but after a terrible performance he bounced back with an impressive win, 7-2. After giving up eight runs and five walks in 4 1/3 innings against Cincinnati last week, Perez held the Padres to one run and three hits. The lefty walked two and struck out four. They face St. Louis starter Todd Wellemeyer, who has allowed 19 hits in 12 innings, plus has a 6.89 ERA in 20 innings against the Mets. An excellent spot for the road dog, play the NY Mets.
Marc Lawrence
Play On: L.A. Angels w/Weaver
The Angels take on the Tigers in Anaheim this evening when Jered Weaver takes the hill in the opener of this 3-game set. And home has been where the money is for Weaver where he has cashed in 6 of his last 7 team starts. It's also where the Halos have dominated Detroit, winning 11 of the last 14 games. Stay at home with Weaver and the Angels here tonight.
Jimmy The Moose
Pittsburgh Penguins at Philadelphia Flyers
Prediction: Over
The Penguins gave up 6 goals in game 3 and that was good enough to go over the total. In game 3 the team's combined for 9 goals which easily played the over. Pittsburgh has scored 10 goals over the three games so far and will continue to put the puck in the net. The Flyer have come to life thanks to the home town fans and expect the building to be noisy again tonight and the Flyers to play like they did last game. The over is 12-2-1 in the Penguins lst 15 trips to Philadelphia. The over is 19-7-1 in the last 27 meetings overall. Play the over.
Big Al Mcmordie
Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Indians
Prediction: Under
At 7:05pm our member selection is on the Kansas City Royals and Cleveland Indians 'under' the total. Two of the lightest-hitting teams in baseball face off in Cleveland and the pitching matchup in this one is rather interesting. Sidney Ponson (yes, THAT Sidney Ponson) is now with the Royals (his seventh Major League team) and he's actually pitched pretty well in his two starts so far this season. He faced Cleveland in his second and latest start less than a week ago and turned in a quality outing, giving up only two earned runs in six innings. Everytime we thought we'd seen the last of Ponson, he pops up on somebody's roster and more often than not, he makes a positive contribution at some point in the season. Indians' young lefthander Aaron Laffey was frustrated that he didn't get the last spot in the rotation as the team broke spring training, but an early injury to #5 starter Scott Lewis has opened the door for Laffey, and the southpaw has already taken advantage, ironically in the same game that featured Ponson last Wednesday. Laffey had almost an identical line to Ponson's and, although he got a no-decision in that one, the Tribe have to be pretty happy with the way he performed. Take the 'under'.
Dennis Macklin
New York Mets at St Louis Cardinals
Prediction: St Louis Cardinals
Both these teams off to disappoining starts. The Mets gave Oliver Perez some big money and have 1-1 and 7.84 as their return. Perez was lit up in road start at Cinn and faces far better lineup here. The Red Birds are 8-5 with the arson squad errrrrr the bullpen responsible for three of those losses, an area supposedly addresed by St Louis in the off-season. Todd Wellemeyer stopped light hitting Arizona on seven hits in seven inning in last and anything close gets St Louis a win here. Take the Cardinals.
Joe Gaffney
Florida Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Florida Marlins
Florida is coming off a really embarassing loss to this same team on Monday. What looked like a possible rain out ended up being a blow out with an overcast sky. Florida's bats were silenced and they got smashed in just their 2nd loss of the season. Hanibal Sanchez looks like he is finally back from arm troubles and today will shut down PIT. FLA bats had been hot all year and today will get hot again and win going away.
Marlins are 6-0 in their last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starters and JOE GAFFNEY loves them in this spot today
DAVE COKIN
DETROIT TIGERS / LOS ANGELES ANGELS
Take DETROIT TIGERS
Armando Galarraga continues to be very impressive for the Tigers. He's showing that his breakout 2008 was no fluke. The Angels send Jared Weaver, who's very tough at home. But Weaver's career ERA vs. Detroit is 8.78, so they have the capability of getting to him. I'll back Galarraga and the Tigers to win tonight.
Nick Parsons
San Jose Sharks -130 @ Anaheim Ducks
The Sharks aren't going to rally from an 0-2 deficit in their series against the Ducks if they don't find a way to score on the power play. San Jose has started the best-of-seven Western Conference quarterfinal series against Anaheim with 0-for-6 showings in each of the first two games; I look for the regular seasons best team to bounce back in a big way tonight! Look for SAN JOSE to improve to 9-4 (+3.1 units) when revenging a home loss vs. an opponent and for the the Ducks to fall to 7-9 (-4.5 units) after playing 3 consecutive road games!
Carlo Campanella
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Houston Astros
Dodgers start Kershaw on the mound in Houston on Tuesday. Kershaw has made two starts this MLB season, allowing a combined 2 Earned Runs in 12 Innings Pitched. He holds a HUGE Pitching Advantage over Russ Ortiz, as the Dodgers have shelled him for 19 Hits and 10 Earned Runs in just 12 Innings Pitched during his last 3 starts against LA. The Dodgers posted a 2-1 record against Ortiz, and should have no trouble beating him if Kershaw continues his solid 2009 form, as these Dodgers enter this on a 9 game winning streak.
7* Play On LA Dodgers
Jeff Benton
Got back on track with the freebies Monday as we endured some weather delays but still produced an underdog baseball winner on the Nationals. That’s now 17 free-play winners in the last 25 days, including eight in the last 10 days. For Tuesday, we’ll go back to the NBA Playoffs and take the Rockets plus the points against Portland.
Was there any team that looked better in its first playoff game than Houston? I mean, the Rockets went into a building where the Blazers had lost just seven times in 41 regular-season games and just made themselves feel right at home. Yao was perfect from the field (9-for-9) and the foul line (6-for-6) to finish with 24 points; unheralded point guard Aaron Brooks put up a 27-point, four-rebound, seven-assist effort; and Ron Artest added 17 points and played lockdown defense on his All-Star shooting guard counterpart, Brandon Roy.
How impressive was Houston’s 108-81 win? It was the second-largest margin of victory for a road team in a Game 1 playoff contest in NBA history!
Now, you have to believe we’ll see a much-improved effort from the Blazers tonight. However, you have to remember that there is virtually no postseason experience on this young Portland roster, and that’s a BIG deal. Plus, you’ve got the Rockets playing with the ultimate chip on their shoulder as they try to avoid getting eliminated in the first round again. And then there’s the very real possibility that – like Chicago vs. the Kevin Garnett-less Celtics – this is a bad personnel matchup for the Blazers. After all, Houston has won the last three meetings this year and is 8-1 SU in the last nine.
In the end, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if either team wins this game, but I would be surprised if the Blazers can engineer a 34-point turnaround – which they’ll need to do to cover this number. Take the points as the underdog improves to 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings in this rivalry.
3♦ HOUSTON ROCKETS
Matt Rivers
For Tuesday take the Cavaliers and lay the number.
In game one I really liked the Pistons as I gave them a bit too much credit believing that this washed up piece of garbage team still had some fight in them. Well I freely admit that I was mistaken as LeBron and the home boys won that game going away and it was as if they weren't even trying a lot of the time.
Detroit seems to be psychologically beaten even before the tip. The Pistons are not close to being even a shell of the old Pistons we have seen over the last seven or so years. Losing Chauncey Billups was the key as this squad is just too darn fragile, and not fra-gee-lay like in "A Christmas Story". This team does still have some capable pieces with Prince, Hamilton, Wallace, McDyess and Stuckey but the first game showed me all I needed to see as when Cleveland decided to put the pedal to the medal they would go on that 8-0 run and take complete control once again.
The Pistons had zero inside play in the first game as they just settled for jump shot after jump shot. I don't see anything changing here as Zydrunas Ilgauskas and the Cavs are too big and dominant down low and we all know what LeBron does pretty much everywhere on the court.
Game one could have been a 30 point burial and I wouldn't be surprised if game two actually does turn out to be one!