SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(7) Chicago (2-2, 2-1-1 ATS at (2) Boston (2-2, 1-2-1 ATS)
After knotting up their best-of-7 series with a thrilling double-overtime victory at home, the Bulls head back to Boston looking to push the defending champs to the brink of elimination, which they can do with a Game 5 upset win at TD Banknorth Garden.
Chicago outlasted the Celtics 121-118 on Sunday, pushing as a three-point home favorite as it rebounded from an embarrassing 21-point home loss in Game 4. All seven Bulls who attempted at least one shot scored in double figures, with guard Derrick Rose (23 points, 11 rebounds), forward Tyrus Thomas (14 points, 10 rebounds) and center Joakim Noah (12 points, 10 rebounds) all notching double-doubles. Ben Gordon, whose three-pointer in the waning seconds of the first overtime kept the Bulls alive, added 22 points, while John Salmons chipped in with 20.
The Celtics’ big three of Paul Pierce (game-high 29 points), Ray Allen (28 points) and Rajon Rondo (25 points, 11 rebounds, 11 assists) all had terrific performances in Game 3. However, Boston made just 42.1 percent of its field goals (Chicago shot 48.4 percent), committed 19 turnovers and failed to take advantage of a significant free-throw disparity (the Celtics went 28-for-32 from the foul line, compared with the Bulls’ 26-for-35 performance).
The Celtics are still 14-4 SU in their last 18 games overall and 10-1 SU in their last 11 at home (only home loss came in Game 1 against the Bulls), and they’ve now topped the century mark in six straight games and 12 of their last 13. Meanwhile, Chicago is on a 14-6 SU roll, and the Bulls have scored in triple digits in 19 of their last 25 contests, putting up 107.1 ppg during this stretch.
Despite Sunday’s loss, Boston is still 8-3 SU in the last 11 meetings with the Bulls and 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12. However, Chicago is 3-2 SU and 3-1-1 ATS in the last five clashes since March 17. Also, the underdog is 4-0-1 during this five-meeting stretch after the favorite cashed in each of the previous nine in this rivalry.
Prior to the start of this series, the Celtics had won and covered four straight home games against Chicago in the past two seasons, winning by margins of 18, 16, 23 and 25 points. However, the Bulls took Game 1 in overtime 105-103 and lost Game 2 at the buzzer 118-115, cashing in both contests.
For the season, the Celtics are 36-7 SU at home (21-22 ATS), while Chicago is 14-29 on the highway (22-20-1 ATS).
The Bulls are in the midst of pointspread streaks that include 4-0 on the road (all as an underdog), 6-1-1 when catching between five and 10½ points, 4-0 as a pup in the playoffs, 5-1-1 in first-round postseason games, 4-1-1 versus winning teams and 5-2 on Tuesday.
The Celtics are 6-2 in their last eight games played after one day off, but otherwise they’re on ATS slides of 5-13 at home, 5-13 as a favorite, 2-7 after a SU defeat, 1-5-1 against Central Division foes, 1-4 on Tuesday, 2-9 as a favorite of five to 10½ points and 1-10 when favored by that margin in the playoffs.
The over is 5-1 in the last six meetings between these teams (3-1 in this series). Additionally, for the Celtics, the over is on streaks of 5-1 overall, 22-6 at home, 18-6 against the Eastern Conference, 7-2 in first-round postseason games, 5-1 when favored, 8-0 after a SU loss and 4-0 on Tuesday. Also, the Bulls are on “over” stretches of 7-2 in first-round playoff action, 15-6 as an underdog, 5-0 as a playoff pup, 9-4 against the Atlantic Division and 11-5-1 on Tuesday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CHICAGO and OVER
(6) Philadelphia (2-2 SU, 4-0 ATS) at (3) Orlando (2-2 SU, 0-4 ATS)
The Magic, getting all they can handle from a team that went just 41-41 in the regular season, return home to Amway Arena for Game 5 deadlocked at 2-2 in their first-round, best-of-7 series with the 76ers.
Hedo Turkoglu drained a three-pointer in the waning seconds of Game 4 Sunday to push the Magic to an 84-81 victory, though they failed to cover as a 4½-point favorite and are now 0-4 ATS in this series. All five Orlando starters scored in double figures, led by Dwight Howard, who matched his 18 points with 18 rebounds. The Magic are still just 3-5 SU in their last eight starts, and dating to the regular season they are on a 2-8 ATS slide.
Andre Miller led Philadelphia with 17 points on Sunday, while Game 3 hero Thaddeus Young had 15 and Andre Iguodala contributed 13 points, 11 assists and seven rebounds. The Sixers’ four-game ATS run in this series followed a five-game pointspread nosedive (1-4 SU) to end the regular season.
Orlando is 6-2 SU (4-4 ATS) in the last eight games between these two teams. The road team in this rivalry has cashed in four of the last six clashes, and the underdog is now 27-11 ATS in the last 38 contests, including 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Additionally, the 76ers are 7-3 ATS on their last 10 trips to Orlando.
Orlando is 33-10 SU (23-20 ATS) at home this season, and Philadelphia is 18-25 SU (20-23 ATS) on the road.
Along with their current 2-8 ATS skid, the Magic are on pointspread slides of 1-4 at home, 0-10 against the Atlantic Division, 1-7 against the Eastern Conference, 1-7 as a chalk and 0-4 after a SU win. The only positive: a 15-7-1 ATS mark in their last 23 Tuesday starts.
On the flip side, the 76ers are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 contests against Southeast Division foes, covering the last six in a row, and they’re also on an 8-2 ATS run as a road pup of five to 10½ points, including covering in the first two games of this series in Orlando at that price range. However, Philly is still just 9-15-1 ATS in its last 25 starts as a playoff underdog.
The over for Philadelphia remains on runs of 7-3 overall, 10-2 on the highway, 6-1 with the Sixers a road pup and 21-5-2 following a SU loss. However, the under for Philly is on stretches of 9-3 in first-round playoff games and 9-3 with the 76ers a playoff pup, and the under for Orlando is on tears of 16-5 overall, 9-2 against Atlantic Division foes, 7-1 after a non-cover, 10-2 after a day off, 6-1 in first-round playoff games and 4-1 at home.
Finally, the last three games in this playoff series stayed below the posted total, and the under is 5-2 in the last seven contests between these rivals.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(5) Houston (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) at (4) Portland (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS)
The Rockets make the trek back to the Rose Garden in Portland looking to finish off the young Trail Blazers and advance to the Western Conference semifinals for the first time since 1997.
Houston took a commanding 3-1 lead with Sunday’s 89-88 win, but failed to cash as a five-point home chalk. The Rockets shot just 39.8 percent from the floor but got a huge game from Yao Ming, who delivered 21 points and 12 rebounds. They gave up 31 points to Portland star Brandon Roy but kept everyone else in check as only four Blazers reached double-digits in scoring.
The Rockets have won eight of their last 10 overall (6-4 ATS) and now they go back to Portland where they stole Game 1, 108-81 as five-point favorites. The Trail Blazers had won six straight coming into the playoffs and even though they got swept in Houston over the weekend, they covered both contests and are 3-0 ATS in the last three.
Houston has won eight of the last 10 in this rivalry (6-4 ATS) and the host has won six of the last seven (2-5 ATS). The Rockets are also 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last five visits to Portland. Finally, the underdog is 3-1 ATS in this seven-game series..
Houston is on ATS streaks of 38-18-1 after a non-cover, 4-1 as a playoff underdog, 7-3 against Northwest Division foes and 6-2 as a road ‘dog of between five and 10½ points. Portland is on positive ATS runs of 7-2 overall, 6-2 at home, 12-4 as a favorite, 4-0 after getting one day off and 5-2 on Tuesdays.
The last two games in this series have stayed under the total after the first two in Portland soared over the number. The over is 6-2 in the last eight head-to-head meetings between these two.
The Rockets are on “over” runs of 9-2 on Tuesdays, 4-1 on the road and 4-1 as playoff ‘dogs, but the under has been the play in 13 of their last 18 after a non-cover and six of their last eight after getting one day off. Portland is on several “over” runs, including 5-1 at home, 6-1 at home against teams with a losing road record and 5-2 in conference quarterfinal games.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
(6) Dallas (3-1 SU and ATS) at (3) San Antonio (1-3 SU and ATS)
The Mavericks go to San Antonio with the chance to close out the Spurs in Game 5 of their best-of-7 Western Conference playoff series.
Dallas swept Games 3 and 4 at home, including Saturday’s 99-90 victory as a 4½-point favorite. Mavs forward Josh Howard led the way, scoring 28 points while hitting three of his six three-pointers. Dirk Nowitzki had 12 points and 13 rebounds as Dallas outrebounded the Spurs 49-35 and won despite shooting 38.4 percent from the floor.
The Mavericks, who have won 10 of their last 13 dating to the regular season (8-5 ATS), are attempting to get past the first round after going one-and-done in the playoffs each of the last two years, losing to Golden State in six games (1-5 ATS) in 2007 and then falling to New Orleans in five games (2-3 ATS) last season. The Spurs have won five of their last eight overall, but have only covered one of their last five. San Antonio has gotten out of the first round eight of the last 12 seasons, winning three NBA titles during this stretch.
The host is 3-1 (SU and ATS) in this series, but the road team has had the upper hand over the long haul in this rivalry, going 15-9 ATS in the last 24 meetings, with the underdog posting a 16-8 ATS mark in those 24 games. However, by cashing in three of the first four in this series, Dallas is now 20-9 ATS in the last 29 series clashes with San Antonio.
Dallas is on ATS runs of 16-5 as a playoff ‘dog, 4-0 after getting two days off, 4-1 against Southwest Division teams and 4-1 in conference quarterfinal action. The Spurs are on ATS slides of 1-4 overall, 1-6 against Southwest Division rivals, 3-9 at home and 1-4-1 in conference quarterfinal action, but they are 19-7-2 ATS in their last 28 as a playoff favorite and 4-1 ATS in their last five after a straight-up loss.
Saturday’s game barely got over the posted total, making the over 3-1 in this series. Going back to the regular season, the over is on a 5-2 streak in this rivalry.
For the Mavs, the under is on runs of 12-4 as a ‘dog and 10-4 as a road ‘dog, but the over is 4-0 in their last four on the road and 5-2 in their last seven after getting two days off. San Antonio is on “over” streaks of 4-1 overall, 4-0 at home, 9-1 after a non-cover, 8-2 on Tuesdays and 7-3 as a favorite.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DALLAS and OVER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
St. Louis (15-6) at Atlanta (9-11)
The streaking Cardinals go for two in a row at Turner Field when they send Kyle Lohse (3-0, 2.42 ERA) to the mound against Braves southpaw Jo-Jo Reyes (0-1, 7.94).
St. Louis held off Atlanta 3-2 on Monday, the team’s sixth win in its last seven games, and Tony LaRussa’s club now owns baseball’s best record. Going back to last season, the Cardinals are on streaks of 20-6 overall, 13-3 as a favorite, 6-0 against the N.L. East, 6-0 versus southpaw starters and 11-1 against teams with a losing record. However, they’re still just 7-16 in their past 23 road games.
The Braves have now dropped nine of 13 overall, including four straight at home, and they’ve averaged just 3.2 runs per game while batting .237 during this slump. Atlanta is in additional ruts of 12-30 against the N.L. Central, 2-7 versus right-handed starters and 2-6 after a defeat.
St. Louis has won eight of its last 10 games against the Braves, going 5-1 in the last six in Atlanta.
Lohse hasn’t made it past five innings in either of his last two starts after opening the season with a complete-game, three-hit, 3-0 home win over the Astros. The Cardinals are 6-1 in Lohse’s last seven starts overall, but 1-6 in his last seven on the road. In the right-hander’s lone road effort this season, he gave up four runs on five hits in five innings, getting a no-decision in St. Louis’ 7-5 defeat.
Reyes’ first start of 2009 was a disaster, as he gave up five runs on seven hits in 5 2/3 innings, losing 10-0 at Pittsburgh on April 18. The left-hander has lost nine straight decisions, and Atlanta is 15-6 in his last 21 starts overall, losing his last six in a row at Turner Field. Last year, Reyes went 2-5 with a 6.89 ERA in 11 home starts.
Lohse has delivered three straight quality starts against Atlanta, going 2-0 with a 3.20 ERA, but he remains 2-1 with a 5.02 ERA in five career starts versus the Braves. Meanwhile, Reyes is 0-2 with a 4.24 ERA in three lifetime starts against the Redbirds.
Last night’s game stayed well under the total, ending a four-game “over” stretch in this rivalry at Turner Field. Still, the over is 19-7-3 in the last 29 meetings overall. Also, the over is 5-1 in Lohse’s last six starts and 5-1 in Reyes’ last six outings. Lastly, for St. Louis, the “over” is on runs of 8-3-1 overall, 5-1 on the road and 4-0 on Tuesday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ST. LOUIS and OVER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Toronto (14-7) at Kansas City (10-9)
Two teams off to surprisingly strong starts continue a four-game series at Kauffman Stadium, with Royals veteran Gil Meche (1-1, 2.63 ERA) scheduled to take the mound against Blue Jays rookie Scott Richmond (2-0, 3.31).
Kansas City snapped a modest two-game slide with Monday’s 7-1 rout of Toronto, improving to 11-1 in its last 12 games as a favorite (10-1 as a home chalk). However, the Royals are in slumps of 42-92 against the A.L. East, 1-4 against right-handed starters and 1-4 after a victory. But with Meche on the mound, K.C. is on positive steaks of 5-2 overall, 9-1 at home, 5-0 versus the A.L. East and 6-2 when pitching as a favorite.
Despite Monday’s defeat, Toronto is 8-4 in its last 12 overall, in a virtual tie for first place in the A.L. East and hasn’t lost consecutive games all season long. The Jays are 6-2 in their last eight against right-handed starters, 19-7 in their last 26 against the A.L. Central, 20-8 after a loss and 4-0 with Richmond on the mound (3-0 in his three starts this season).
K.C. had lost five straight games to the Blue Jays before Monday’s victory. The home team has won 12 of the last 16 series meetings.
Richmond is coming off back-to-back quality starts, allowing a total of four runs (three earned) on 10 hits with 11 strikeouts in 12 1/3 innings, beating the Twins 12-2 on the road and the Rangers 5-2 at home. The right-hander has made eight big-league starts going back to July 30, and he’s given up three earned runs or fewer in all eight.
Meche also has posted consecutive quality starts, both on the road, pitching six scoreless innings in a 12-3 win at Texas on April 17 before going to Cleveland on Thursday and allowing four runs (three earned) in 7 1/3 innings, losing 5-2. The right-hander has made just one start at home, giving up four runs in seven innings, getting a no-decision in his team’s 6-4 victory. That was Meche’s only non-quality start in his last seven trips to the hill dating to last season.
Since arriving in Kansas City in 2007, Meche is 0-3 with a 3.57 ERA in three games against Toronto (0-2 with a 3.55 ERA last year). In 13 career outings (12 starts) against the Blue Jays, Meche is 4-6 with a 4.82 ERA.
The under is 6-2 in Richmond’s eight career big-league starts, 7-3 in Meche’s last 10 starts overall and 7-1 in Meche’s last eight outings versus the Blue Jays (4-0 last four). Also, the under is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings in this rivalry (7-1 in Kansas City). Finally, for the Royals, the “under” is on streaks of 5-1 overall (4-1 at home), 10-4 against right-handed starters and 10-4 against the A.L. East.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Big Al McMordie
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Toronto Blue Jays
At 8:10pm our complimentary selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Kansas City Royals. After being the ace of the Royals staff since he was signed to a huge free agent contract at the beginning of the 2007 season, righthanded veteran Gil Meche is now taking a bit of a back seat to fellow righthander Zack Greinke. It's not that Meche isn't pitching well -- quite the opposite as a matter of fact -- but Greinke has stolen the spotlight with some performances this season that seem other-worldly. Also, Meche seems to be suffering from some poor run support and a poor bullpen in at least two of his starts, which is the main reason he is only 1-1. Toronto's Scott Richmond has flown under the radar so far this season, but that probably won't last long. There are two reasons for this. First, Toronto has an astounding number of injuries to its starting pitching (the Jays recently put both Jesse Litsch and Ricky Romero on the 15-day DL to go along with starters Shaun Marcum and Dustin McGowan). The second reason is that Richmond is pitching very well and should be opening eyes with his high strikeout totals. So far this season, Richmond has 15 Ks in just over 16 innings, and despite not reaching the Majors until age 28, Richmond seems to be making the most of his opportunity with a 2-0 record and 3.31 ERA in three starts. Toronto dominated the series between these two teams in 2008, taking five of the seven games played (though it dropped last night's game 7-1). The Jays will rebound tonight. Take Toronto.
Cajun Sports
Oakland Athletics vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Texas Rangers
Rangers Ballpark in Arlington will be the site of tonight’s American League clash between the host Texas Rangers and the visiting Oakland Athletics. The A’s are 7-10 W/L on the year and 3-5 W/L on the road. Oakland will send Brett Anderson to the bump with his 0-2 record in three starts and an ERA of 5.89. He struggled in his only road start of the season in Gotham going 5.3 innings giving up five earned runs on nine hits with three homeruns and two strikeouts in a 9 to 7 loss. The team he faces tonight averages 7.9 runs at home and 10.2 runs against left-handers in four games this season batting .335 against them with an OBP of .385. Oakland is 20-41 their last sixty-one as a road underdog, 11-23 on the road versus teams with a winning record at home and 16-35 overall on the highway their last fifty-one. This A’s team has really found the going tough when facing right-handed starters on the highway posting a record of 8-21 their last twenty-nine in that situation. The Rangers will send right-hander Kevin Millwood to the mound with his 1-2 W/L record an ERA of 2.10 on the season. He is 1-1 at home with an ERA of 1.69 and has pitched well although his record does not reflect his strong performances to date. Millwood pitched a complete game against the Royals and Zack Greinke but lost 2 to 0, he gave up the two runs on five hits with three strikeouts, three bases on balls while his teammates failed to plate any runs with seven hits and leaving seven on base. That should change tonight as the Rangers are 41-13 W/L when favored in the price range of 150 to 200 and 5-1 when Millwood starts in that situation. The Rangers are 19-7 W/L the last twenty-six times Millwood has taken the bump at home and faced a team with a losing record. We also have a MLB System that tells us to Play Against MLB road underdogs in this price range with a team batting average of less than .265 and facing a starter whose ERA is below 4.20, with a starter who averages giving up one or more homeruns per start on the season. Playing against these underdogs has produced a record of 21-2 W/L over the last three seasons for a profit of +17.9 units. We will back the host here as the Rangers and Millwood take down the boys from the Bay on Tuesday night.
Graded Selection: 2* Texas Rangers 7 Oakland A’s 4
LT Profits
Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants
Chad Billingsley has been great for the Los Angeles Dodgers this season while Jonathan Sanchez is coming off of his best start of the year for the San Francisco Giants, so do not expect much scoring at AT&T Park tonight.
Billingsley has always been highly regarded, and he came into his own last season. He is just now reaching his peak, and if his 2009 start is any indication, he will be a dominant pitcher in this league for a very long time.
Billingsley is a perfect 4-0, as he is four for four in Quality Starts while putting up a nifty 2.05 ERA and a miniscule 0.87 WHIP, with 26 strikeouts in 26.1 innings. He has already faced the Giants once this season back in Los Angeles, and he was masterful while allowing one run and just five hits with 11 strikeouts in seven innings. He could duplicate that outing here vs. a San Francisco lineup that is hitting only .239 vs. right-handers so far.
Now Sanchez pitched well last season with no run support, and he pitched much better here at home than he did on the road. Well, he appears to be following an identical pattern this season. He was hit hard in his first start of the year on the road in San Diego, allowing five earned runs in 4.2 innings. He then made his 2009 home debut in his last start, and he responded by hurling 6.2 scoreless innings and allowing just two hits vs. Arizona.
Look for that home success for Sanchez to continue tonight, keying a safe Under vs. an ace opponent in Billingsley.
Pick: Dodgers/Giants Under 8
JIM FEIST
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS / ATLANTA BRAVES
Take: ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
Atlanta has a .500 record at home and a stumbling offense, one 9th in the NL in runs and dead last in steals. They are a station to station offense. They face Kyle Lohse (3-0, 2.42 ERA), who doesn't walk anyone and is clearly suited to the NL. Albert Pujols leads the National League with seven home runs and 25 RBIs, an average of 40 homers and 122 RBIs in eight previous seasons. Few teams outside the NL Central have been punished more than the Braves by Pujols, whose .744 slugging percentage against them is his highest among 17 teams he's played more than 10 games against in his career. Pujols has hit .372 with 15 homers and 44 RBIs in 49 games against the Braves, and .379 with 21 extra-base hits (10 homers) and 26 RBIs in 26 games at Turner Field. Atlanta lefty Jo-Jo Reyes has struggle, with a 7.94 ERA and he is 0-2 against St. Louis. Play the Cardinals.
DAVE COKIN
NEW YORK YANKEES / DETROIT TIGERS
Take DETROIT TIGERS
The Yankees lost again Monday and turn to high end prospect Phil Hughes tonight as they again face the Tigers. Hughes has tremendous stuff and he's been lights out at Scranton-Wilkes Barre so far this season. But he's struggled badly at the big league level, and will have to prove to me he's ready to get past that mental hurdle. The Tigers are on a three-game win streak and rate the edge at the modest odds tonight.
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Kansas City w/Meche
The Royals host the Blue Jays in Game Two of this 3-game series when Gil Meche takes the hill for Kansas City. The key to tonight's contest is the fact that Meche is in outstanding KW form with 4 walks against 25 strikeouts in his four starts this season. He's also 9-1 in his last 10 home team starts. Look for more of the same here tonight.
Jimmy The Moose
Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers
Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates
Prior to Monday's game the Pirates were 11-7 on the year while the Brewers were 8-10. The Pirates are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a dog. Prior to Monday's game the Pirates had won 5 of their last 6. Maholm has been very good for the Pirates this season. He's 3-0 with a 2.02 ERA and Pittsburgh has won all 4 of his starts. Prior to last night's game the Brewers were 2-4 at home. Tonight they send Bush to the mound and although he's coming off a solid outing, Milwaukee has lost 2 of his 3 starts this season. Play on the Pittsburgh Pirates +.
Stephen Nover
St. Louis Cardinals @ Atlanta Braves
PICK: St. Louis Cardinals
The very early money has been on the Braves and Jo-Jo Reyes. That's fine with me. I'll lay less than normal juice to get the hot Cardinals and a superior starter, Kyle Lohse.
The Braves aren't getting a whole lot of home support these days, having lost nine of their last 13. They are missing All-Star catcher Brian McCann and Garret Anderson, a left-handed bat they could use in this matchup.
Atlanta's offense is really struggling putting up three or fewer runs in nine of the last 13 games.
The Cardinals, on the other hand, are 13-4 in their last 17 games.
Bobby Cox is turning to Reyes to get his team untracked. Good luck with that. The Braves are 5-16 in Reyes' past 21 starts.
Reyes is 0-8 with a 7.82 ERA in his last 14 appearances.
This is a one-unit play for me.
Carlo Campanella
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota Twins
Minnesota starts lefty Liriano on the mound to host Tampa Bay on Tuesday. Tampa Bay is off to a 7-12 start to the season, however, they're a horrible 1-7 in games which they faced a starting south paw pitcher this year! They now face another left handed pitcher on the road, where the Twins are 6-5, and Liriano is 2-0 against the Rays while totally stopping their offense, holding them to just 1 Eared Run in 15.7 Innings Pitched. Most of the Oddsmakers have Minnesota slightly favored at home, but this pitching mismatch offers huge betting value, especially at 5Dime sports book where they are currently Dogs.
7* Play On Minnesota
Bobby Maxwell
Houston +110 at Cincinnati
We've got a baseball FREE winner for you tonight as we play the Astros to get the job done in Cincinnati against the Reds.
Houston's dominance in Cincinnati continued on Monday night when they got their tenth straight win in the Reds' home park.The Astros got a 4-1 victory on Monday as they opened their eight-game road trip.
Lance Berkman homered on Monday with a solo shot in the sixth inning. He loves to hit in Cincinnati, delivering 20 homers and 50 RBIs and batting .364 in 42 career games at Great American Ball Park. His 20 homers is the most for any visiting player at the six-year-old park.
Wandy Rodriguez (1-2, 1.80 ERA) has allowed one run or fewer in three of his four starts this season, including an April 18 start against the Reds when he allowed just two hits in seven innings in a 7-0 win in Houston. He tied his career-high with 10 strikeouts in that win.
The Astros are an amazing 31-15-1 at Great American Ball Park and today they'll face Aaron Harang who has opened the season 2-2 with a 2.00 ERA. He took on the Astros and Rodriguez on April 18 and allowed five runs on 10 hits in the loss. Last year Harang was 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA in two starts against the Astros.
Houston loves to play in Cincinnati and we're going to ride the streak in this one. Play the Astros tonight.
4♦ HOUSTON
Chicago at BOSTON -7'
Today we've got a third straight winner as we play the Celtics and lay the chalk at home against the Bulls.
Who would have thought this was going to be the most entertaining of the first-round series? But Boston is looking just like it did last season when it seemed to struggle in every playoff series before pulling it out seemingly every time they played at home.
Well, they're back in a crucial game at home and we're going to lay the chalk with the Celtics tonight against the young Bulls. Boston is 36-7 at home this season while the Bulls are just 14-29 on the highway.
The Celtics are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings with the Bulls and 8-3 SU in the last 11. They are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games after getting a day off and look what they did to the Bulls after getting a day off before Game 3. They came out and humiliated the Bulls in Game 3 before losing in double-OT on Sunday in Game 4.
This series is all even and while both teams have been winning down the stretch, it's games like this that you have to go with the experience of Ray Allen, Paul Pierce and the Celtics. They went through this last season, playing every game that had a lot riding on it. Chicago relies too much on Ben Gordon and Derrick Rose to do all the heavy lifting. Look for the Boston defense to limit this duo tongiht.
Play the Celtics at home in this one.
3♦ BOSTON
Jeff Benton
Philadelphia +8' at ORLANDO
Back on track with the free plays Monday, as the DBacks rolled over the Cubs. I’m now 21-11 with my last 32 feebies, including 12-5 with the last 17. For Tuesday, we’ll take the points with the 76ers against Orlando.
For starters, Philadelphia has covered the spread in all four games in this series, and done so rather easily, including pulling off two outright upsets as an underdog. On top of that, the underdog has covered in 27 of the last 38 meetings between these teams, while Philly is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 trips to Orlando.
More than obvious trends, though, this play comes down to the simple fact that Sixers have given Orlando fits all series long and I don’t see it changing tonight. The reason this series is tied 2-2 despite the fact the Magic finished with 18 more regular-season wins than Philadelphia? For one thing, the Sixers have been playing tough, hard, smart basketball and their coach hasn’t been a deterrent. On the other hand, Orlando coach Stan Van Gundy has indeed looked like – as Shaquille O”Neal dubbed him two months ago – the “Master of Panic,” and his troops have blown really big leads in all four games (and 90 percent of that is on the coach’s shoulders).
The Magic have failed to cash in 10 straight games against Atlantic Division competition and seven of their last eight as a favorite, while the 76ers are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 against teams from the Southeast Division. Throw in the fact that three of four games in this series have come down to the final shot, while all four contests have been decided by a total of 16 points, and how can you not look to the underdog – which is 5-1-1 ATS in the playoffs the last two days – in this one?
5♦ PHILADELPHIA
Sports Gambling Hotline
Philadelphia +8' at ORLANDO
The linesmakers refuse to believe in this Philadelphia team, and we will be happy to take the points once again in the Eastern Conference matchup.
Philadelphia has been able to split the first 4 games in this series, but more importantly, the Sixers have covered in all 4 of those meetings plus the points.
In fact, the 76ers are on a 7-3 spread run their last 10 played at Orlando, and the underdog is a whopping 27-11 against the spread the last 38 times these rivals have tangled.
Orlando's spread slide is not just in this series, as dating back to the regular season, the Magic has dropped 9 of 10 against the spread, and they are just 5-13 against the spread their last 18 games overall.
We feel Orlando is starting to feel the pressure of being the heavily favored team in this series, and it is affecting them. The reverse seems to be true for Philadelphia in the underdog role, as the Sixers have been a tough out for the Magic.
Nothing changes tonight, take the points.
Play on Philly.
3♦ PHILADELPHIA
Karl Garrett
Houston +5' at PORTLAND
G-Man likes the points in this Houston-Portland series, as the underdog has covered ALL 4 meetings in this series, and 6 of the last 7 overall dating back to the regular season.
Houston has certainly been a tough matchup for Portland, as the Rockets may have only won their 2 home games by 1, and 3 points, but Houston is now 8-2 straight up the last 10 meetings between the teams. The Rockets have also covered the 3 times in that span they have been installed as the underdog.
Brandon Roy has been bothered by the flu the last couple of days, and if he is at less than 100%, it is going to be tough for the Blazers to stretch the margin against the Rockets in this contest.
G-Man knows the Rockets would love to close the series out tonight, and while this series is probably going back to Houston for a 6th game, I don't think Portland's winning margin is going to come by more than a basket or so.
Take the points, as the underdog trend continues.
4♦ HOUSTON
Matt Rivers
For Tuesday take the points with the Mavs.
There is no doubt that Tony Parker is too good and quick for anybody guarding him on Dallas and being back home can do nothing but help San Antonio but all in all the Spurs are a semi declining squad and laying a bit too much today.
Dallas is clearly the better team right now and the club that is ready to advance to the next round. That result may not exactly come true today as the road is a beast of a place as we have seen in the last three games of this series but to get around a half dozen points with Manu Ginobli obviously still out injured is too good to pass up.
Dirk Nowitzki really has had a great season and throw in Jason Terry, Josh Howard, Jason Kidd, Erick Dampier and a few others and collectively this squaq has molded itself into a contender once again. No the Mavs should not be able to beat the Lakers if it comes to that but these guys have rallied the troops after what appeared to be a declining franchise, ala the Spurs right now.
I am not at all deeming this an easy game as the closeout game is always the toughest but the Mavs are the better team and plus a solid price like this, after already winning on the road in this series, is enough for me.