Ron Raymond
NYR (+210) vs WAS
We have a saying in the Sports Handicapping business, its known as the Golden Rule of Sports betting; when everybody in the world is on one side, go the other way! Some call it the contrarian play or the bet against the public pick, but I call it the SUPER VALUE of the night! Lets face it, the Rangers have all the odds stacked against them here this evening, but they have one of the most energetic coaches in the game today in John Tortorella and they have the most important factor in this game, Henrik Lundqvist. Varlamov has yet to be tested in this series and the NY Rangers dont have the pressure of the home crowd to please, all they need to do is get super goaltending and let the Washington Capital self destruct on home ice like they did in Game #1 and #2. The Rangers have never lost a series after winning 3 of the first 4 games of a series and the Capitals didnt have Brashear in the line up in Game #1 and #2 of the series and thats huge when you look down the bench and your team body guard is in the press box. I believe the pressure is all the Capitals this evening and the Rangers will play this underdog role to a T and shock the hockey world in an upset special.
Stat of the Game: When NY RANGERS team played as a Road team - Vs Southeast opponent - After a conference game - Coming off a Home loss as a Underdog; The Rangers are 7-3 (70%) in this role since 1999.
Michael Cannon
Houston +5' at PORTLAND
I’m on a 9-3-1 run with my last 13 free plays after the 2-0 sweep last night with the Astros and the Hawks outright!
Take the points with the Rockets tonight on the road over the Trail Blazers.
This series has been pretty tight, despite the Rockets holding a 3-1 lead. I expect more of the same tonight and Houston’s experience is going to play a major factor here.
Portland is supremely talented, but young. That youth is contributing to the mistakes that have the Trailblazers in this 3-1 hole.
Greg Oden may wind up being a dominant big man in this game, but he looks clueless right now going up against Yao Ming.
We don’t need the outright win here to grab the cash, but the points should be plenty to do the trick.
Take Houston plus the points as they stay within the number.
3♦ HOUSTON
Florida at NY METS -125
Take the Mets for the home win tonight over the Marlins.
I know New York hasn’t been all that consistent right out of the gate, but the Marlins are reeling right now and the Mets should be able to take advantage of that tonight.
Livan Hernandez will get the start for the Mets and he’s been tough on Florida recently. The right-hander is 3-0 with a 3.05 ERA in his last three starts against the Marlins.
Florida will counter with Ricky Nolasco, who is just 1-2 with a 6.86 ERA on the year. The right-hander has also struggled against the Mets in his career, going 2-6 with a 6.36 ERA in 12 games against them.
Jose Reyes and David Wright are a combined 25-for-57 (.439) against Nolasco, with three homeruns apiece.
Take the Mets as they grab the home win.
3♦ NY METS
Drew Gordon
Boston at CLEVELAND -110
The line on this contest immediately jumps out at me, as we find the red-hot Red Sox at a bargain price in Cleveland. Sorry Boston-backers, but I'm not buying it. If oddsmakers were really confident the Red Sox streak was going to continue tonight, then we'd be paying a premium. That is not the case, and it all starts with the pitching match-up.
While Brad Penny's last start was solid, its hard to forget how he got rocked by the Orioles in the start prior, allowing eight runs in just three innings. Not only that, but his 2-0 record isn't nearly as indicative as his 7.80 ERA on the season. Let's also not forget, he was atrocious on the road last season, going 3-4 with an ugly 7.12 ERA in nine away games as a member of the Dodgers.
While the Indians' Anthony Reyes is issuing far too many walks for my liking, truth be told, he's been effective overall, going 1-0 with a 4.76 ERA. He allowed two runs over six innings to the Royals last Thursday, and if he can get his command under control, he can very well outpitch Penny in this one.
True, the Indians offense got stifled by Tim Wakefield Monday, yet for all of the Tribe's issues at the plate, they're averaging 4.8 runs per game against righties thus far this season. The Red Sox meanwhile, are averaging just 3.5 runs per game vs righties on the road. True, its still early on, and we can expect that to even out eventually, but the fact remains if the guys in Vegas thought this was going to be as easy as the public thinks its going to be, then we'd be paying a premium.
Bottom line, look for Penny's road woes to re-emerge in this contest, as the Indians bring out the bats Tuesday at home. Also, Reyes has been solid despite the issues with his command, and I suspect we see him settle down nicely in this one, after looking good against the Royals in his last outing.
The Red Sox winning streak ends with a thud tonight at Progressive Field.
2♦ CLEVELAND
Houston +5' at PORTLAND
I'll admit, its tempting to back the Blazers at the Rose Garden, with their back against the wall no less, in this Game 5 showdown. However, even if they do win, I just don't see them creating enough separation to cover the number in this contest, plain and simple.
Toss out the Rockets Game 1 blowout win, and the rest of this series has been razor close, with margins of 4, 3, and 1 point(s) respectively. Needless to say, these two teams match up particularly well, with both teams relying on defense and their size in the frontcourt to win games. The difference is the more veteran Rockets simply do it better than Portland, and that's why they're up 3-1 in this series.
Yao Ming has demonstrated why he's one of the best and smartest centers in the NBA. He's dominated the paint on defense, and almost always makes the right play (pass or shoot) when anchoring the Rockets offense on the other end! Despite all their size, the Blazers do not have an answer for Yao. Also, the emergence of Aaron Brooks and Luis Scola have given Houston two other options to go along with Yao and Artest.
On the flip side, I love what I've seen from Brandon Roy, but the rest of this Blazers roster has been inconsistent at best, which is to be expected from such a young team. Aldridge was a beast all season, but has been wildly inconsistent in this series, and if he struggles again, the Blazers will lose this game outright.
Bottom line, these two teams are so evenly matched, that taking the points is just too much of a value to pass up in this case. Rockets have proven they can beat the Blazers at the Rose Garden, not to mention one has to wonder how such a young team will respond in this elimination game. Too many questions left to be answered by the Blazers... Give me the more veteran Rockets with Yao dominating the paint once again tonight.
Take Houston plus the points over Portland in Game 5 of this Western Conference Playoffs series.
3♦ HOUSTON
JrTips
ROCKETS vs. BLAZERS
The Blazers are behind 3-1 in the playoff series with the Rockets and face elimination tonight at home. Yao had 21 points and 12 rebounds in an 89-88 victory over the Blazers on Sunday night and was nearly unstoppable. Portland hurt themselves by giving up 10 offensive rebounds in the final quarter. Portland has had trouble matching up with Yao the whole series but had much more success when the Blazers had Przybilla front the 7-foot-6 center. Yao is averaging 15.8 points and 10.5 rebounds through the first four games and Luis Scola leads the Rockets with an average of 16.8 points and 7.5 rebounds. The Blazers were 34-7 at the Rose Garden during the regular season. All-Star Brandon Roy had 31 points in Game 4 and is averaging 28.3 in the series while teammate LaMarcus Aldridge is averaging 16.5 points and 8.3 rebounds. The Rose Garden arguably presents the toughest home court advantage in the NBA and the Blazers have the best player on the court in Brandon Roy. The Blazers are in a must win situation against a team they can beat. The Blazers will start fast and their home court advantage will give them the edge they need to get the win. They win this game going away and put the Houston starters on the bench in the fourth quarter.TAKE PORTLAND-5 1/2