EZWINNER'S FREE SELECTION
(708) Cleveland Cavaliers -11.5
The Cavs have had plenty of rest after sweeping the Pistons in
round one. They may be a bit rusty early, but I expect them to put
away this young Hawks team that is feeling good about themselves
after knocking off the Heat in the first round. Lay the points.
2009 Free Selections Record 66-55 (54.5%)
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Free Selection from Totals4U
Monday's free selection: Baltimore/Tampa Bay under 9 1/2
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Maddux Sports free pick is on a 60% run since 2003 and
today's pick is the Cleveland Caviliers -11.5
Wunderdog
Dallas at Denver
Pick: Denver -6.5
The Nuggets are playing as well as anyone in the playoffs right now. They have really come together as a team, and they have been money at home. The Nuggets ran their home winning streak to 14 straight games and they are not just winning but doing so in a very impressive fashion. The last eight Nuggets wins at home have been by 10+ points, as they are steamrolling everyone. All 14 of those wins would have resulted in an ATS cover of the line posted for tonight's game. They have just two losses the entire season to teams with less than a 65% winning percentage when facing them on their home court. The Nuggets are 26-17 ATS this season vs. teams that allow 100+ points per game. They are also 25-23 ATS as a favorite (including 25-16 at home). Dallas limped into the playoffs losing their last four on the road to teams in the playoffs by a margin greater than the pointspread here. They caught a break against an injured and aging San Antonio team, but we already saw that Denver is ready to make some noise in the 2009 playoffs. The Mavericks bring an 8-17 ATS mark into this one against the NBA's Northwest conference while the Nuggets carry a 38-15 ATS mark in their last 53 as a 5-10.5 favorite. The Nuggets are too hot to ignore, and they are combining motivation with skill right now. That combination often results in playoff blowout wins.
JACK JONES
St. Louis Cardinals -120 over Philadelphia Phillies
Adam Wainright has pitched pretty well early in the season, giving up just 3 ER on 15 hits while striking out 17 in 17.3 innings at Busch Stadium. Brett Myers has given up 22 hits and 13 walks over his last 18.7 innings, so his 4.34 ERA during that span is a little misleading when you see his 1.88 WHIP. Wainright is also 3-0 against the Phillies with a 1.29 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. The Cards should have the edge with the bats as well with the team hitting .284 against right-handers compared to the .250 mark the Phillies are hitting against righties. I know St. Louis has had their bats get a little cold here lately, but expect a bounce back in front of the home crowd.
Evan Altemus
Atlanta Hawks @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Pick: Under 179
The majority of the games between these two teams went over the total this season. However, that trend will change in this game. Atlanta showed in their series against Miami that their offense can really struggle at times, especially on the road. They tend to settle on jump shots and one on one basketball when facing motivated defenses. I look for their offense to really struggle in this game as a result of Cleveland’s tough defense. The Cavaliers play a slower style of basketball, using their stifling defense to shut down opponents. Detroit really struggled offensively against Cleveland in the 1st round, but their offense is better than Atlanta. In addition, this game will be the first for Cleveland in several days because of their sweep over the Pistons, so I look for them to be sluggish on offense in the first half. Look for this game to fall under the total.
John Ryan
Philadelphia Phillies vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Play: Philadelphia Phillies +125
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Philadelphia Phillies as they play the Cardinals in Game 2 of this series. Phils were a 7* Titan DOG winner along with 7* Titan winner on Boston. The AiS has the Phils graded as a 3* play today. I mentioned yesterday that the strength of the 2009 edition is a repeat of the strength of last year’s World Championship - the BULLPEN. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 40-17 making 256.2 units since 2003. Play on all teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better on the season facing an opponent with a starting pitcher who is undefeated after 5 or more starts. Philly starter Brett Myers is a strong 25-8 (+17.9 Units) against the money line versus NL teams scoring 5.3 or more runs/game on the season since 1997. Take the Phillies.
Steve Merril
Cincinnati Reds vs. Florida Marlins
Play: Under 8
The Marlins and Reds will wrap up their series in Florida on Tuesday night as both teams send up and coming righthanders to the hill. Florida will send Chris Volstad to the mound and he is 2-0 with a 2.67 ERA so far this season. Volstad is 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA in two home starts so far this season. Volstad hasn’t faced the Reds yet in his career and only one Red has any sort of history against him. Willy Tavares is 1-2 with a walk in three at-bats.
Going for the Reds is Edinson Volquez. He is 3-2 with a 4.45 ERA, but has been stronger in his last three outings. He is 2-1 with a 1.89 ERA in his last three starts with all three going Under as well. Volquez went 2-0 against the Fish last year, winning 9-4 in Florida and 5-3 in Cincinnati. Volquez has limited the Marlins to a .207 team batting average against him. Dan Uggla (1-6), Wes Helms and Hanley Ramirez (0-4), and Cody Ross (0-3) are all struggling against Volquez.
Dwayne Bryant
STL (-125) vs PHI
Adam Wainwright is 2-0 with a 1.17 ERA in five appearances against Philly, including three starts. In 12 career at-bats against the right-hander, Jimmy Rollins has three hits - the most by any player currently on Philadelphia's roster - but he also has four strikeouts.
Brett Myers had no record and a 6.00 ERA in two starts versus the Cardinals in 2008. Albert Pujols is hitting .346 (9-for-26) with two homers in his career against Myers. Two of Skip Schumaker's five hits off the Phillies hurler have been home runs.
I expect an inspired effort from St. Louis tonight after seeing Rick Ankiel carted off the field in the eighth inning last night (head-first collision with the wall).
King Creole
NYY / BOS Over 9.5
MIKE DIMURO gets the call tonight 'behind the dish' in the new Launching Pad known as Yankee Stadium, where the OVER has already gone an impressive 7-2 O/U so far this season. DIMURO comes in with a 3-1 O/U record so far... and is 7-1 O/U in his last 8 games dating back to last season. Average combined runs in his games is 11.3 RPG. Last season, he went 10-3 O/U in 'Righty vs Righty' matchups.
Josh Beckett comes in on a 4-game 'OVER' streak, as his ERA is 9.13 in those 4 games. In each of his last two starts, he exited in the 5th inning after allowing 13 > hits plus walks. he went 3-1 O/U in 4 starts vs the Yankees last season with an ERA over 5.00. Joba Chamberlain comes in with a home ERA of 9.68 and an opponent team batting average of .478