Jeff Benton
Came up just short with Monday’s free play on the Cavaliers, who won by 10 but were laying 10½. Still, I’m on freebie runs of 27-17, 18-11 and 6-3. For Tuesday, we’ll stay in the NBA playoffs and back the Magic plus the points at Boston.
There’s something very fishy about this pointspread. The last time these teams squared off in Boston, the Celtics hammered the Magic 112-94 as a four-point favorite in Game 2. Then on Sunday, Boston evened the series again, this time with a 95-94 buzzer-beating victory in Orlando. So why are the Celtics, back at home, such a short favorite tonight – especially when considering they’ve covered 13 of the last 17 against the Magic in Boston?
I’ve got a couple of theories that make sense. First of all, Boston has won consecutive games just once in these playoffs (Games 2 and 3 against Chicago) and it has covered the spread in consecutive games just once (Games 6 and 7 against Chicago). Also, of the Celtics’ 11 playoff games to date, a whopping seven have been decided by five points or less, including six by three points or fewer.
Meanwhile, since opening the playoffs with four straight non-covers (all as a favorite) against Philadelphia, the Magic have gotten the money in four of their last six contests. Orlando also continues to sport tremendous underdog numbers (36-16-3 last 55 as a pup, 14-5 last 19 as a road underdog and 44-18-1 last 63 when catching less than five points). On the other hand, the Celtics have failed to cover in seven of their last 22 at home (all laying points) and 11 of their last 14 Eastern Conference semifinal playoff games.
Throw in the fact that the underdog and road team are both 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings between these squads, and I’ll take my chances with the Magic, who if not for Big Baby Davis’s last-second heroics in Game 4 in Orlando would have a commanding 3-1 lead in this series. Take the points.
4♦ ORLANDO MAGIC
Tony Weston
Today's Selection:
We come through last night as the Nuggets and Mavericks hit well Over the Total. We’re making it two in a row tonight as we’re taking the Under in the Rockets-Lakers matchup in Los Angeles.
The number for tonight is set at 198 points and just like in Game 4 the Under will come in.
Consider that in their last six meetings overall - all since March 11 - the Under is on a 4-2 run and has come in 2 of the last 3 games in Los Angeles. In that 6-game stretch these two have totaled, on average, 193.5 points per. In their last 3 games in L.A. the teams have totaled, on average, 191.6 points per game.
Keep in mind also that the Under is on a 6-2 run for the Rockets and it has come in 5 of the Lakers last 7 games overall.
Tonight, the defense will dictate the game as these two play Under the total. Take the Under in this one tonight.
3♦ ROCKETS-LAKERS UNDER
Chris Jordan
New York at TORONTO -140
He's a Yankee killer, and we'll side with him at home tonight. Roy Halladay has been lights out for much of the season, and comes into this one after dominating his last start.
He absolutely shut down the Angels last Wednesday, when he tossed eight strong innings for the road victory in Anaheim. The former Cy Young winner blanked the Halos for seven frames before allowing one run, but was impressive in scattering six hits and recording six strikeouts, while inducing 13 groundouts.
Why is that significant? Well, that's 19 outs that never left the infield ... or, in regards to innings, you're looking at 6-1/3 frames worth of outs that were either on strikes or smothered by infielders.
Halladay's six wins in seven starts marks the fastest he's reached that many victories in a season in his career. Now he gets AL East-rival New York in the Rogers Center, and I'm confident in laying this price tonight. Over 32 career games against New York, the right-hander is 15-5 with a 2.86 ERA.
In 2008 he went 5-1 with a 2.40 ERA against the Bombers.
Easy winner here for you.
1♦ BLUE JAYS
Drew Gordon
Boston at LA ANGELS -125
Both teams are playing well, but you've got to like the Angels behind the red-hot Jered Weaver in this one. He's 2-0 with a lockdown 2.05 ERA over his L3 starts, incl. his first career complete game when he dominated the Blue Jays Thursday, allowing 1 run on 3 hits, while striking out 8! Although his career numbers against Boston aren't great (2-2, 4.46 ERA in 7 starts), Weaver has been a beast at Angel Stadium this season, going 3-0 with a miniscule 1.21 ERA!
Opposing Weaver is the Red Sox Justin Masterson, who's underachieved in trying to fill Dice-K's shoes, going 2-2 with a 5.48 ERA in 4 starts this season. He's been especially bad over his last 2 starts, allowing 12 runs in 12 1/3 innings, getting knocked around by the Rays and Indians in back-to-back efforts. Also, although he hasn't started against the Halos this year, he does have one ugly relief effort against them, back on April 10th he allowed 3 runs on 4 hits over 1 inning!
Finally, a couple things to consider, including the fact the Red Sox are just 4-11 in their last 15 meetings with the Angels. While the Sox are an excellent 13-4 at Fenway, their 7-8 road record is hardly impressive. Also, the Halos have been damn good at home with Weaver on the hill, going 19-7 in his L26 home starts! As a final note, Boston's offense takes a noticeable dip on the road, batting .244 against righties, and with neither Youkilis (questionable) or Pedroia (doubtful) likely to play, things do not bode well for the Red Sox in this one. In the end, look for Weaver to thoroughly outpitch Masterson, as the Angels win their 5th straight Tuesday night!
Take the LA Angels behind Weaver over Boston and Masterson in this MLB match up.
3♦ LA ANGELS
Gina
Orlando Magic at Boston Celtics
Go with Boston on their home court to grab another close victory against Orlando. They have split the last six games, but the Magic are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games and 4-13 ATS in the last 17 games against the Celtics in Beantown.
Boston Celtics -2
New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays
Go with the Blue Jays with their ace Roy Halladay on hill. The right-hander is 3-0 with a 2.74 ERA in his last three starts and went 5-1 with a 2.40 ERA against the Yankees last season, 15-5 with a 2.86 ERA in 32 career games against New York. Toronto is 10-1 in Halladay’s last 11 starts against the Yankees at home. Meanwhile, Yankees' right-hander A.J. Burnett is 0-3 with a 7.50 ERA in his last three starts.
Toronto Blue Jays -140
Johnny Guild
Houston Rockets at Los Angeles Lakers
Houston Rockets were forceful in game 4, while the L.A. Lakers were spiritless. Houston beat Los Angeles 99-87 to tie their best-of-seven series 2-2 in Houston. Look for the Lakers tonight at home to be more aggressive, but the Rockets will be hungry. I believe the Lakers won’ take the Rockets lightly again and will seize a victory in Game 5 at the Staples Center, but no blowout in this clash. Take the points! The Lakers could be without Lamar Odom.
Houston Rockets +12
Mr. A
Boston Celtics -2
Los Angeles Lakers -12
Toronto Blue Jays -140
Minnesota Twins -120
MLB Computer Picks
New York Mets -125
Texas Rangers -150
Chicago Cubs -160
Ben Burns
Detroit Red Wings @ Anaheim Mighty Ducks
PICK: Detroit Red Wings
While the Ducks are only a win away from forcing Game 7, the Wings have dominated this series. Let's take a look at the shots on goal.
In the first game, the Wings held a "modest" 37-24 edge in total shots. In the second game, they Wings took a whopping 62 shots. Anaheim had 47. Game 3 saw the Wings enjoy a 2-1 edge in shots, as they fired 46 to Anaheim's 23. Game 4 was slightly closer. The Wings "only" outshot the Ducks by a dozen, 40-28. The most recent game saw the Wings with a commanding 38-17 edge. Add it all up and Detroit owns a significant 223-139 edge in that department. It's true that the shots on goal stat can sometimes be misleading. However, when the advantage is this lopsided, I believe it's worth paying attention to.
While the Ducks got great goaltending to begin the playoffs, all those shots on goal have finally started to take a toll - they've given up 10 goals in the last two games. Note that the Wings are now a profitable 34-13 (+12.6) when coming off a game in which they scored four or more goals.
Knowing Chicago is now already waiting for them, the Wings don't want to play a Game 7. It likely won't be as "easy" as the last two game, but they should find a way to close things out tonight. Consider Detroit
Mike Rose
Boston Celtics -2
The Magic should have considered themselves lucky to have held a late game lead in Game 4 in the first place. They shot miserably from the field (40% on 34-of-85 shooting), and shot an even more horrific 18.5% from beyond the arc. This coming after they seemingly couldn't miss in Game 3 (almost 60% from the field & 50% from 3-point land). Now they have to go back to Boston where they've managed just two SU wins in their L/5 trips. On top of that, they're a pathetic 4-13 ATS for NBA bettors the L/17 times they bumped uglies with the Celtics in Beantown. Game 4's heartbreaking defeat has to have this club out of sorts. It's hard to bounce back from gut wrenching defeats like that in the regular season let alone in the playoffs.
Boston has to be feeling good about themselves right now. They stole a game in Chicago in Round 1, and did the same on Sunday night. Big Baby's shot will be talked about forever by Celtics fanatics, but more importantly, it might have been the shot that propels this club back to the Eastern Conference finals for the second year in a row. Now having all the series momentum, the Celtics get to play another contest in front of their home fans. They've had one heck of an exciting run thus far, and it doesn't look to be over anytime soon.
Boston returned home for Game 5 in its last series against the Chicago Bulls and gutted out a 106-104 overtime victory. Though they failed to win for its betting backers, they still got the job done. The defending champs have played in a number of closely contested battles throughout the post-season, and tonight's match-up looks to be no different. That being said, they're only being asked to cover a bucket in this spot opposed to the 7.5-point spread they were tagged with in Game 5 against the Bulls. If Orlando does indeed go into the Garden and win this game, my hat goes off to them. I just don't see it happening though. I'm expecting a huge game from Ray Allen tonight after he's been held in check throughout the first four games. This will probably be a back and forth affair throughout the first three quarters, but home court advantage will rear its ugly head for Orlando supporters in the 4th and the Celtics will eek out the home win and cover to take a 3-2 series lead.
MTI Sports
New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays
Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays are 18-1 when Roy Halladay starts at home in the first game of a series and 15-2 as a home favorite after a win in which their opponent left fewer than 10 men on base. Consider Toronto.
John Ryan
Florida Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Milwaukee as they face Florida slated to start at 8:05 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 106-44 making 48.4 units since 1997. Play against road dogs with a money line of +100 to +150 with a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities facing an opponent with a NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.650 or worse on the season. Marlins in a tough spot here noting they are 88-126 (-44.4 Units) against the money line versus an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.70 to 5.20 since 1997. Milwaukee is a solid 59-23 (+25.7 Units) against the money line in home games versus a NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 3 seasons; 56-26 (+22.1 Units) against the money line in home games after 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons. Florida offense is nearly comatose batting just 239 on the season and 236 against 11 games facing a LH starter. Skipper Macha is a strong 70-25 (+34.6 Units) against the money line in home games after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games in all games he has managed since 1997. Take Milwaukee
Vegas Experts
New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays
Roy Halladay will get a chance to face former rotation mate AJ Burnett as the Toronto Blue Jays host the Yankees. Halladay is off to another great start this year as he has a 6-1 TSR and a 3.29 ERA. He has had his way with the Yankees as he has a 15-5 record with a 2.83 ERA. He has also been outstanding in the month of May as he has a 33-12 TSR in his career. Burnett has been roughed up in his last three starts as he has allowed 15 earned runs in 18 innings. The Blue Jays are 11-4 at home this year and are a safe bet here.
Play on: Toronto
Jrtips
BOSTON RED SOX vs. LA ANGELS
The red-hot Angels look for their a fifth straight win when they face the Boston Red Sox tonight in Anaheim. Boston (20-12) will be without two of its biggest bats, Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia who are recovering from injuries. The Angels (16-14) have won seven of eight to move within one-half game of first-place in the AL allowing five total runs during their four-game winning streak. Weaver (3-1, 2.66 ERA), whose ERA and .209 opponent batting average both rank among the top five in the AL allowed one unearned run and four hits in 6 2/3 innings of a 6-3 win over Boston on April 10th. The Red Sox will start Justin Masterson (2-2, 5.28) who has given up six runs in each of his last two starts and allowed a career-worst eight hits in 6 1/3 innings of a 9-2 loss to Cleveland on Wednesday. Boston's offense ranks second in the majors with 185 runs and often has to pick up the slack for the pitchers. They've won three of four overall, scoring 29 runs but Boston went 1-8 against Los Angeles in the 2008 regular season. The Angels are hot and will get to Masterson early and often. Five runs is all the Angels will need to get the win tonight with Weaver on the Mound and two of the red sox big bats out of the lineup.
TAKE LA ANGELS-130
Rob Homyak
5 Units on New York Mets
New York swept a two-game set in Atlanta from May 4-5 and won six of nine at home versus the Braves last year.
New York going with Mike Pelfrey has won three straight starts and is 4-0 in five starts this year. Pelfrey has a 5.46 ERA this year and a 4.00 ERA over his last three starts.
ATLANTA is 87-104 (-25.1 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
NY METS are 22-9 (+11.9 Units) against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -125 over the last 3 seasons.
Mets are 8-0 in Pelfreys last 8 home starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Braves are 3-10 in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Head-to-Head Series History
NY METS is 2-1 (+0.4 Units) against ATLANTA this season
NY Mets are 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Atlanta
Umpire Trends - Andy Fletcher
Home team is 6-2 in Fletchers last 8 games behind home plate.
Mets are 7-3 in their last 10 games with Fletcher behind home plate.
Braves are 0-4 in their last 4 games with Fletcher behind home plate.
Larry Ness
Washington Nationals @ San Francisco Giants
PICK: San Francisco Giants
Ryan Zimmerman of the Nationals went 4-for-5 with two HRs and a season-high four RBI last night but the Nationals lost 11-7 to the Giants. And so it goes for a team with the worst record in MLB (10-20) in 2009. Meanwhile, the Giants have won 14 of their last 20 games and at , are three games over .500 for the first time since May 7, 2007. That includes an 11-4 mark at home, where San Francisco's pitching staff (owners of MLB's 5th-best ERA at 3.97), has held opponents to just 2.87 RPG. Getting the start for Washington is rookie Jordan Zimmermann (2-1 with a 5.48 ERA). He makes his first start against the Giants and the fifth of his career. He opened with back-to-back wins (2.38 ERA) but he's allowed 14 hits and 11 ERs over his last two outings (8.49 ERA), losing once with a no decision (better than he deserved). Starting for the Giants is a pitcher who has rarely gotten "more than he's deserved" in his MLB career. Matt Cain was 13-12 (4.15 ERA) in his rookie season of 2006. He then went out in 2007 and lowered his ERA by a half-run (3.64) but went just 7-16, as the Giants finished 9-23 in his 32 starts. His moneyline mark of minus-$1,803 was the worst in all of MLB. His ERA was 3.76 last year but again he went only 8-14, with the Giants going in 14-20 his starts (minus-$386). His 2009 numbers have been terrific, as he's 3-1 with a 2.61 ERA. He's had just one poor start (in six outings), allowing five ERs in a 5-1 loss to the Rockies (in San Fran). He's posted a 1.69 ERA in his other five starts, going 3-0 but "true to form," the Giants have lost both of his no decisions, despite Cain posting a 2.08 ERA in those games. However, Cain has been outstanding vs the Nationals recently, posting a 0.42 ERA in winning all three of his starts against them since 2007. The Giants are playing with confidence and are coming off an 11-run, 14-hit game. Now if only Cain could get half of that support on a regular basis? Consider this stat. Cain is 29-6 as a starter when the Giants score at least three runs for him. Take the Giants.