Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Milwaukee Brewers -118
The Brewers have won 6 in a row and 21 of their last 27 overall and I don't see their momentum slowing against a Houston team that can't stack up at the plate. Bush has been very good for Milwaukee this season at 2-0 with an ERA of 3.52. The Astros' Hampton is 1-2 with an ERA of 7.47 over his last 3 starts. The Brewers are 8-0 in their last 8 game 1's of a series, 5-0 in Bush's last 5 starts, and 12-2 in Bush's last 14 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Astros are 0-4 in Hampton's last 4 home starts, 1-5 in their last 6 game 1's of a series, and 1-10 in their last 11 games following an off day. I'll back the red hot Brewers again tonight.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Cincinnati Reds +121
I'll back the Reds at home at an excellent price today behind the 4-1 Johnny Cueto and his 1.93 ERA. Hamels is one of the game's best young lefties, but he has struggled out of the gate and brings in a 17.17 road ERA. After three straight losses on the road, the Reds return home and they will be hungry. May has been their month as they are 15-4 in home games in May over the last 2 seasons. The Reds are 7-1 in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600, 7-1 in their last 8 games as an underdog of +110 to +150, and 4-1 in their last 5 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. Bet the Reds.
Mr. East
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros
Play: Milwaukee Brewers
The Milwaukee Brewers are on a tear, and have won 6 straight games, and are now atop the NL Central. The hot play isn't just the past week, as the Brew Crew is now 20-5 in their last 25 games, and have won 10 of their last 12 on the road. The Brewers pitching has been excellent, and their bullpen ranks #2 behind only the Mets in the NL. The same can't be said for the Astro pen that has 8 saves, and 8 blown saves this season. Mike Hampton is far removed from the pitcher he was nearly a decade ago. After several seasons of 200+ innings, Hampton has worked just 188 inning his last 2+ years, and they have been the worst of his career, and sports a 5.31 ERA this season. Dave Bush has seen his ERA drop a full point a year ago, and has bettered that mark so far this year. He has done some of his best work vs the Astros where he is 5-1 with a 3.50 ERA for his career. Brewers get the call here.
John Ryan
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Pirates as they face the Nationals slated to start at 7:05 EST. We had the Pirates last night as a rare 7* Century Club Titan play winner. Rare in that there were over 100 ML winning angles supporting the graded play. The Nats are just not a good team – not a complete team – and their abilities to play complete games is greatly reduced by poor pitching. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 34-17 making 24.3 units since 2003. Play on road dogs with a money line of +100 to +150 and with a NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.70 to 5.20 on the season facing an opponent with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 3 or less batters per start. Washington is just 5-22 (-15.4 Units) against the money line versus terrible power teams averaging 0.75 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons; 16-43 (-23.0 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons; 5-15 (-13.6 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher over the last 2 seasons. Washington offense is coming alive, but that is led by just a few players. They are batting 300 over their last 5 games, but allowing the opponent to hit at a horrific 314 with an OBP of 399 and allowing 8 RPG. Their bullpen is terrible sporting a 6.18 ERA on the season and 6.12 ERA in home games. In 50 IP in home games, the bullpen has allowed 38 runs, 52 hits, 8 HR, 34 BB and is 0-8 converting just 2 of 8 save opportunities. So, yes Nats starter Martis is an amazing 5-0, but one of these times the bullpen will fail him big. Plus, Martis has not been able to get LH batters out as they are hitting 319 with a 394 OBP. Take the Pirates.
Vernon Croy
Texas Rangers vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Detroit Tigers
This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems and we are getting great value here tonight with the Tigers who are 11-5 at home this season. The Tigers have won 9 straight at home against the Rangers and I look for Dontrelle Willis (0-0, 7.71 ERA) to have a solid start in his second outing since coming off the disabled list. The Rangers are on their longest winning streak since May 2005 and that ends tonight with Brandon McCarthy (3-1, 5.92) on the mound for the Rangers. The Texas Rangers are just 1-6 in Brandon McCarthy's last 7 road starts and the Rangers are just 7-20 in their last 27 road games when the posted total is 9.0 to 10.5 points. The Tigers are 4-1 in their last 5 games after a win and McCarthy is 0-2 against Detroit with an ERA of 5.79 over 4 career starts. Take Detroit as my MLB Free Play for Tuesday night.
GoodFella
ANA (+135) vs SEA
This play has great value here IMO, as Matt Palmer is flying under the radar. He's won his first four starts while holding opponents to a .168 batting average, first among starters in the AL. He also has the advantage of facing Seattle for the 1st time, a CLEAR advantage for the pitcher in this situation. For Seattle, they send out Felix Hernandez tonight, and he hasn't had the best success vs the Angels during his career; Hernandez is 3-4 with a 4.83 ERA in 12 career starts against the Angels. I expect the Angels to be the Angels and work the pitch count up on Felix & get into that Mariner bullpen that is REALLY struggling right now. Live dog here fellas, & I will bite.
Tony George
Kansas City / Cleveland Under 8
Two solid pitchers tonight in Kansas City in perfect weather, in what should be a battle of hurlers tonight, whom both will be on the bench while their team is on offense begging for some run support. Brian Bannister gets the start for Kansas City, up from Omaha and he threw a 4 hot game in his debut back in the Majors in Cleveland back in April in a Royals 2-0 win in that game. In his last 5 outings he has not had over 3 earned runs allowed in any of those starts. Cliff Lee is no slouch for the Tribe either, and neither teams offense is the stuff legends are made of. Kansas Citys bullpen has been one of the best in baseball all season and they have won without a ton of offense because of it, and their last 3 games the bullpen for the Royals has an overall ERA of 2.01. This is a 2-1 or 3-2 type ballgame with both teams battling for the win, in Kaufman stadium tonight, which I will be in attendance for this one.
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
CHI (+170) vs DET
This is a value play as I look for Patrick Kane and the Blackhawks to do what they've done already during the first two rounds of the playoffs; come back strong and play with a concerted effort after a loss! It's interesting to note that Chicago is in fact a fantastic 2-0 (+2.4 units) when trailing in a playoff series and I look for this strong trend to continue this evening; play on CHICAGO!
Wunderdog
Chicago Cubs at St. Louis
Pick: St. Louis +110
The Cardinals are getting a bump in the line after getting swept at home in three straight by the Brewers. It must be noted that the Cards ran into a buzz saw, as the Brewers are 20-5 in their last 25 games. Joel Pineiro has pitched to a respectable 4.17 ERA, but a much more respectable 2.45 at home where the Cards have yet to lose with him on the hill. They have lost just once since the All-Star break of last season behind Pineiro at home! Ted Lilly certainly has a bigger name, but the separation between the two over their careers is just 0.17 in the ERA column, so not much difference and we are getting the Cards at home here. The Cubs have proven to be a force at home and mediocre on the road over the last 1+ year. St. Louis has the better record in comparing Cubs on the road vs. St. Louis at home. They also have an even comparison on the mound. The bigger edge belongs to the Cards pen that trumps the 26th rated Cub pen by well over one run a game. We have a favorable matchup all the way around - and we get the dog. I'm going with St. Louis in this one.
Yankee Capper
Cincinnati Reds +120
Chicago White Sox -120
Dave Price
1 Unit on Boston Red Sox -137
I'll back Boston at home as it looks to send a message to Toronto tonight that it will not be running away with this division. Boston is an outstanding 13-4 at home this season and 77-33 in their last 110 home games overall. The Red Sox are 5-1 in Wakefield's last 6 starts and an impressive 10-3 in Wakefield's last 13 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. The Blue Jays are 1-4 in their last 5 games as an underdog and 1-4 in the last 5 meetings. Take the BoSox.
Jorge Gonzalez
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers (27-13) are the best team in baseball and have continued their winning ways after the suspension of Manny Ramirez. After losing four of their next five games following the suspension, the Dodgers have bounced back to win five of their last six games. In last night's wild 3-2 11th inning victory over the The New York Mets (21-17), the Dodgers have improved to 15-3 at Dodger Stadium. Starting pitcher Chad Billingsley has emerged as the Dodgers best pitcher and ace. Billingsley, who has allowed three runs or less in all eight starts this season is sixth in the NL in ERA and has struck out 56 in 54 2-3 innings. With an offense that is third in the league with a batting average of .285 the Dodgers are going to be tough to beat here in this spot. This could easily be a playoff match-up come late September or early October. Look for the Dodgers to stay focused and continue to find ways to win games.
Glad to see you appreciate my work 😉 Why don't you try spending your own time digging these up.
Dwayne Bryant
Half-unit play on Cubs -120
The Cards lineup has been punchless lately due to injuries and they don't hit lefties well to begin with. The Cubs have a potent lineup and Lilly has pitched well against St. Louis. The Cards are slumping and the Cubs would present a problem for them even if they weren't in a tailspin.
Scott Rickenbach
Texas Rangers @ Detroit Tigers
PICK: Under 11
The Rangers are likely to be without Josh Hamilton again tonight while the Tigers will definitely be without Magglio Ordonez. This is helping to give us some line value with the under here because most bettors are so excited about playing an over with Dontrelle Willis on the mound that this total is being kept higher than it should be. Even though the start that Willis just made was in a game that ended up flying over the total, he showed a lot more promise than he did when he was struggling so badly in recent seasons.
We really believe that he can turn things around here in this home start and that his newfound focus will really help him thrive here at home. As for the Rangers McCarthy, his numbers were skewed recently by his bad start at Oakland. Overall, he's been pitching quite well and this total is simply over-inflated because of Willis. This is also helping to give value to the under since McCarthy has been tough to hit in many of his outings this season. Consider a small play on UNDER the total in Detroit on Tuesday night.