Larry Ness
Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox
PICK: Boston Red Sox
Break up the Blue Jays! Toronto owns the AL's best record (27-14) and has a 3 1/2-game lead over the Red Sox after a four-game home sweep of the White Sox. The Red Sox finished second in the AL East last year to the surprising Rays and this year the Sox find themselves looking up at the Blue Jays. Toronto is batting an AL-best .289 and has scored more runs (234 or 5.71 per) than any team in the majors. Even more surprisingly, despite having already seen eight different pitchers make a start, the Blue Jays' ERA ranks third in all of MLB, at 3.85. Other than that, the Red Sox have NOTHING to worry about! The Blue Jays are 12-5 in May, benefiting from playing 12 of 17 games at home this month (Jays are 16-6 at home in 2009). However, Toronto is off on a nine-game road trip and it starts with three games in Fenway. The 22-16 Red Sox are just 9-12 on the road (batting .248 as a team) but 13-4 at Fenway, where they are hitting .308. The Red Sox went 56-25 at home last year. Toronto sends a lefty to the mound tonight, in Brian Tallet. This will be his seventh start of 2009 and since a disastrous outing April 29 in Kansas City when he allowed 10 ERs in four innings, the left-hander has gone 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA in three starts (team is just 1-2, though). He's 2-1 with a 4.68 ERA this year, making 10 appearances including six starts (team is 3-3). I expect he'll have a tough time vs the Red Sox lineup though, which was 17-6 vs lefties in Fenway last season, averaging 6.3 RPG. Boston is 4-2 at home vs lefties in 2009, averaging 7.2 RPG. The Red Sox will counter Tallet with the ageless Tim Wakefield. Wakefield is 4-2 with a 4.03 ERA in 2009, making seven starts (team is 5-2). Just two of those starts have come in Fenway, with Wakefield winning both of them while allowing just three ERs over 13 innings (2.08 ERA). Wakefield has made 48 career appearances against the Jays (he's 16-11 with a 3.76 ERA) but it's worth noting that he's done just fine against Toronto recently, going 9-4 with a 3.11 ERA in his last 14 starts vs them. Take the Red Sox.
Mike Rose
Denver Nuggets +6.5
The Nuggets have been the most dominant team in the Western Conference Playoffs thus far, as it has taken them just 10 games to reach this point. Not surprisingly, Denver has done it with its offense averaging 111.5 PPG reaching the 100-point mark in all but one of their playoff contests. The big difference maker for these Nuggets has been the play of G Chauncey Billups who averaged 21.6 PPG in their series with the Mavs. Billups 28 points in Game 5 proved to be the dagger for Dallas as the Nuggets once again defended their home court. Perhaps his biggest contribution to the team has been distributing the basketball where he's averaged 7.3 APG in these playoffs. Denver is 20-6 ATS in its L/26 games overall.
The Lakers must be tired after underachieving against a much smaller Houston Rockets team in the second round. It will be hard to tell which team will show up when the Lakers are just 2-3 ATS in these playoffs after a double-digit victory. The Lake Show still consists of one star and that is of course G Kobe Bryant who scored a quiet 14 points in the Lakers Game 7 home win and cover on Sunday. Bryant averaged 27.4 PPG in the Houston series including a series high 40-point performance in Game 2. LA is 7-3 ATS in their L/10 home games.
The Lakers covered both of their home match-ups with the Nuggets this season, but those were different times and that was against a much different Denver squad. Look for the Nuggets, who are the much fresher team, to cover the spread against the Lakers in Game 1 if not win outright! The Nuggets are an undefeated 10-0 ATS in the 2009 NBA playoffs so far and I look for that streak to stay intact against this tired bunch from LA tonight.
Rob Homyak
5 Units on LA Lakers
The Nuggets advanced to the West Finals after they defeated the Mavericks 124-110 last Wednesday. The Nuggets covered the 10.5-point spread, while the combined score sailed OVER the posted total of 213.5.
Chauncey Billups shot 10-for-16 from the field with 28 points, seven rebounds, and 12 assists for the Nuggets.
Carmelo Anthony scored a team-high 30 points in the win.
The Lakers defeated Houston 89-70 as a 13-point favorite in Game 7 of their second-round series on Sunday.
The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (194).
Pau Gasol scored a game-high 21 points to go along with 18 rebounds for Los Angeles, while Kobe Bryant added 14 points, seven rebounds, and five assists in that win
Los Angeles is 42-6 SU (24-24 ATS) at home this season, 6-1 (4-3 ATS) in the postseason, 7-3 ATS at home and 4-1 ATS as a favorite of five to 10? points.
Denver is 23-22 SU (25-20 ATS) on the highway (2-2, 4-0 ATS in the playoffs). 0-4 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog of five to 10? points.17-39-1 ATS as an underdog of five to 10? points
Head-to-Head Series History
LA Lakers won 3 of 4 games from Denver during the regular season this year.
LA LAKERS are 11-4 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
Greg Shaker
Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox
Play: WhiteSox
It is not a decision that comes easily to play these WhiteSox right now because they are not hitting the ball and have not really done so all year. They have lost 5 straight and during this stretch have managed to plate just 8 runners. That does not win games and sure enough they have not done so. But things may get better tonight for them as the Twins enter the stadium. Minnesota has not had success lately either, they certainly have not had much on the road this year at just 4-12, and they have almost not success here at this field in recent trips here, winning just once in 9 tries. There is no doubt about a couple of things going on this contest. The Sox have the far superior bullpen both this year, and recently. They have been at least keeping them games with an ERA of well below 3 runs over the last 10 games. Their pitcher tonight has been doing the same and Chicago has won 6 of the 7 times he has been on the hill this year. Buehrle did lose his last game but he did not throw badly and here at home this year he has just allowed 5 runs in 4 games thrown. That is pretty damn good, would you not say? He has thrown well verses these Twins over his career including a 6-1 decision this year back in April. Baker has been very iffy except for one game this year and that is despite throwing all games in the Metrodome except one. His lone road contest was not a pretty site at all. Baker is 3-2 with a 6.81 ERA against the White Sox over his career. It is safe to say that we are going to have better pitchers on the mound tonight throughout the contest and this is what wins games in this league. We do have two struggling baseball squads playing tonight but a better situation in many ways for the home team. This price is a good one as well and good enough for me to throw money on it.
ATS Consultants
Cleveland (-127) over Kansas City
Reigning American League Cy Young Award winner Cliff Lee can continue a strong start - at least statistically - to the 2009 season tonight when the Cleveland Indians visit Kauffman Stadium to open a three-game set with the Kansas City Royals.
A remarkable 22-3 with a 2.54 earned run average in 31 starts last season, Lee has been only slightly less effective so far this year while allowing just 18 earned runs over his first 54 innings of work. He's held opponents to three runs or less in six straight outings and to one or fewer in four of them, in spite of already losing two more games than he had all of last year.
Lee's ERA, which was at 12.60 following an ugly 9-1 loss at Texas on April 6, has dropped after each subsequent start, falling to its current 3.00 level after he tossed seven innings of scoreless ball against the Chicago White Sox in a 4-0 win on May 13.
Lee took a tough-luck 2-0 loss against the Royals on April 22 in Cleveland, going eight innings and scattering nine hits while allowing two runs and striking out five.
For Kansas City, which trails Detroit by a game in the American League's Central Division, righty Brian Bannister pitches for the first time since suffering shoulder discomfort and leaving a May 13 start at Oakland.
The 28-year-old suffered his first loss of the season against the Athletics, departing after 5 2/3 innings after giving up five hits and two runs.
Cleveland has split its six matchups with the Royals this season after winning 10 of the 18 meetings a year ago.
Look for Lee to get better run support tonight and keep the Royals off the scoreboard.