Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Baltimore Orioles -129
Baltimore is due for a win and it should get it tonight. The O's return home from a six-game road trip having lost 5 in a row so you can expect them to be very hungry here, especially against Seattle who took 2 of 3 from them a week ago. The Orioles are a solid 16-13 at home this season and they have won each of the last four games in which they've been favored. Here's the clincher though: the Mariners are 0-4 in the last 4 meetings in Baltimore and 0-9 in their last 9 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. Take the home team.
Indiancowboy
Take Under 8.5 between Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Indians.
I don't have time for a long extended write-up on this game, but bear in mind despite an excellent performance against KC earlier this year, Lee fell short 0-2 in that game. He looks to avenge that loss and he has the Royals hitters on their heels mostly and I don't see that changing too much today. Lee has put forth 10 straight quality starts. Bannister needs a quality start desperately today after getting shelled in his last two games. The Royals are looking at possibly demoting him if this continues so he needs at least a half decent start on the highway today. I look for this game to likley dip under.
WUNDERDOG
Los Angeles Lakers at Orlando
Pick: First Half UNDER 97.5
One thing is clear about the oddsmakers in this series. They set the first 200+ NBA Finals total in 14 years. Looking at the first two games, they haven't even been in the ballpark. This has been a defensive playoffs for both teams (Lakers 14-6 UNDER and Magic 12-9 UNDER) and it's a defensive series, with both teams having trouble finding matchup advantages, negated by the others ability to adjust. We have yet to see either team be able to make separation, and that is because of the defense. The Lakers are going to come out strong defensively to try and control the crowd, and Orlando will come out fired up on the defensive end because they know a loss here and they are done. The last game saw the same thing, and just 75 first-half points scored. Orlando is 22-9 UNDER this season in the first-half when revenging a loss. They are 15-5 UNDER in the first half after allowing 100+ points in back-to-back games. This season, against winning teams, the Lakers are 33-23 UNDER in the first half while Orlando is 31-19 UNDER. I expect the signature of the first two games to carry over to this game and for this one to go UNDER in the first half too.
Game: Detroit at Pittsburgh
Pick: OVER 5.5 -110
The Pittsburgh Penguins battled back from a 2-0 deficit and got the series even. They are now faced with the ultimate battle - one of elimination. What they have not been able to do on the road in this series, they have done very well with at home and that is score. The Penguins hung a pair of fours on the Red Wings at home. But in three road games, they have produced just two goals all together. The story has been the same for the Red Wings who are allowing virtually nothing in 11 home playoff games - just 1.5 goals per game. They have not been anything near that on the road where they have allowed twice as many goals per game, and it has led to them playing seven of their last eight games OVER as a road dog. The Penguins have cashed five of their last six as a home favorite to the OVER as well. I like this one to go OVER the total.
Vernon Croy
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves
Pick: Atlanta Braves -140
This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems and Braves starter Kenshin Kawakami (3-6, 4.63) has not given up more than 3 earned runs in 6 straight starts. Kawakami has pitched solid over his last 3 starts with an ERA of just 2.61 while lasting an average of 6.9 innings per start and the Pirates have never faced him before so I look for an impressive start from Kawakami tonight. The Pirates are just 4-17 in Zach Duke's (6-4, 2.62 ERA) last 21 road starts as a dog of +110 to +150 and the Pirates are just 3-11 in their last 14 road games against a right hand starter. The Pirates are just 9-26 in their last 35 trips to Atlanta and the Braves are 23-11 in their last 34 home games against a team that has a losing record on the road below .400. Take the Atlanta Braves as my MLB Complimentary Play for Monday night.
Tony Karpinski
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: New York Yankees
The Yankees are playing their best baseball of the season right now as everyone in the lineup is hitting. New York is 20-7 in their last 27 games overall and the hottest team in baseball. They are 8-1 in their last 9 road games with a total set of 9.0-10.5 runs.Josh Beckett is just 2-7 in his last 9 home starts against a team with a winning record. New York has lost 6 straight games to Boston, as they were injured earlier in the season when they met. Take the road Yankees as a small underdog play tonight!
John Ryan
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Seattle Mariners
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Seattle as they face the Orioles slated to start at 7:05 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 91-46 making 46.2 units since 2003. Play on any AL team with a team batting average of .265 or worse on the season and after allowing 3 runs or less 4 straight games. Baltimore is just 25-52 (-21.3 Units) against the money line versus a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better over the last 2 seasons; 20-48 (-22.4 Units) against the money line versus an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.00 or better over the last 2 seasons. Orioles are a horrific 3-16 (-13.7 Units) against the money line after 5 straight games where they stranded 7 or less runners on base over the last 3 seasons.
Alex Smart
St. Louis Cardinals @ Florida Marlins
Chris Carpenter (4-0. 0.71 ERA) the St.Louis Cardinals starting pitcher enters this game against the Florida Marlins in top form. He has been going right after opponents and pounding the strike zone like he is possessed . The veteran right hander is head and shoulders the National Leagues top pitcher right now as his numbers suggest. Carpenter has been using very little effort on his way to a lot of 3 and outs, as is evident by averaging fewer than 13 pitches per inning. The former Cy Young award winner has been dominant vs the Marlins in the past posting a 3-0 record along with a very stingy 1.03 ERA in his last four starts against them.
Meanwhile, Josh Johnson (5-1,2.63 ERA) is also in top form and off an impressive outing allowing the Brewers to two runs on five hits over 7 2/3 innings while striking out eight. In Johnsons only career start vs the Cardinals he allowed three runs on seven hits over 6 2/3 innings. He was very tough on the Cardinals big three of Albert Pujols, Ryan Ludwick and Rick Ankiel who were a combined 2-for-8 (.200). With the Cardinals in a huge offensive funk as is evident by a batting .233 during a current 9 game span the hard throwing Johnson should prove to be a dominating force.
With two top tier pitchers on the hill that are capable of going deep, recommending a under wager is an easy decision It must be noted that Johnson has been particularly tough at home, garnering a 1.76 ERA in 7 home appearances.
Final notes & Key Trends: Under is 13-5 in Cardinals last 18 games vs. a right-handed starter. Under is 5-0 in Marlins last 5 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Under is 11-4-2 in Marlins last 17 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. .........Play Under
Murray Hill Mike
Los Angeles Lakers at Orlando Magic
Prediction: Orlando Magic
The Los Angeles Lakers are just 2-8 ATS when leading a playoff series and with Game Three in Orlando, it may be tough for them to cover this one too. Orlando has not shot well this series as they are averaging under 36 percent from the floor. This streaky team can get hot at anytime and playing on their home floor may do the trick. Expect Orlando to shoot the ball and shoot it efficiently. Consider the trends. Orlando is 11-1 ATS against Pacific division opponents, 12-4 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less, 22-10 ATS after 2 consecutive non-conference games, 16-3 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points, 11-2 ATS off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog, 16-4 ATS off a road loss, 20-6 ATS after playing a game as an underdog and 12-3 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses. Take Orlando
Larry Ness
Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox
Play: Chicago White Sox
The Tigers and White Sox split a doubleheaderon Monday, as the teams opened a rare five-game series. Detroit won 5-4 Monday afternoon but then managed just one hit over eight innings against Jose Contreras in a 6-1 loss in the nightcap. The loss snapped a three-game winning streak for the Tigers but it was also the third time in five games in which the Tigers have been held to two or less runs. Detroit has scored only 27 runs (3.38 per) and hit .222 over its last eight games and the team has had all sort of problems winning in US Cellular Field since the beginning of the 2006 season. With yesterday's split, the Tigers are just 10-20 their last 30 games in Chicago. Tonight's pitching matchup hardly favors the Tigers, as Dontrelle Willis takes on Mark Buehrle. Willis won 4-0 at home vs Texas back on May 19 (6.1 IP / 1 hit 0 ERs) and the Tigers were hoping that maybe, he was turning things around. His next start was more than acceptable, allowing seven hits and three ERs over 6.2 innings in a 3-1 loss to the Rockies. However, his last two outings have been awful, as he's allowed 10 hits, seven walks and 12 ERs over just 7.1 innings, for a 14.73 ERA! Making matters worse, Willis has no record and a 12.00 ERA in three lifetime starts against the White Sox, walking 12 in just six innings. Adding insult to injury, in his most recent start vs Chicago (April 11, 2008), he hyperextended his right knee, causing him to miss a month. Mark Buehrle goes for the White Sox. He became a regular part of Chicago's rotation in 2001 and over the next eight seasons went 118-86 with a 3.78 ERA. That's an average of just under 15 wins each year. He's always been a much better home pitcher than road pitcher, as from 2001-08, the White Sox are 95-47 (.669) in his home starts and 60-67 (.472) in his road starts. That home/away dichotomy was much greater last year, as Chicago was 14-3 (2.65 ERA) in his home starts but just 4-14 (5.14 ERA) in his road starts. He was 6-1 with a 2.71 ERA in 10 starts (White Sox were 8-2) prior to his last outing, when he allowed just five hits but four ERs over eight innings of a 7-0 home loss to the A's last Thursday. Still, he's 4-1 with a 2.09 ERA at home this year in seven starts, with the White Sox going 5-2. That makes the White Sox 19-5 (.792) in his home starts since the beginning of 2008, which ain't bad! Take the White Sox and Buehrle over the Tigers and Willis.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Chicago Cubs -125
I like Chicago's bats against the Moehler, who is 0-2 at home this season with an ERA of 8.24. In fact, the Astros are only 1-5 in Moehlers last 6 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. The Cubs send Ted Lilly to the lilly pad and he has had Houston's number. The Cubs are 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in Houston and 5-1 in Lilly's last 6 starts vs. the Astros. Plus, the Cubs are 11-4 in Lilly's last 15 starts overall. The Astros are 0-7 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record while the Cubs are 25-11 in their last 36 games as a road favorite. Bet the Cubbies.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Boston Red Sox -135
The Red Sox are 5-0 against the Yankees this season and I can't see New York breaking through tonight against Beckett. The Red Sox ace has been on his "A" game of late, going 2-0 with a 0.40 ERA over his last 3 starts. Boston has been at its best against the best teams in the league, going 19-5 vs. AL teams scoring 5.2 or more runs/game this season and 22-5 in home games vs. excellent fielding teams - averaging <=0.5 errors/game over the last 2 seasons. We'll take the Sox
Freddy Wills
Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: Cleveland Indians -1½
Bannister vs. Lee. Lee has pitched well all season and has a 3.15 ERA last 3 starts it will be the third time these two get together this year. Lee went 8IP in both outings giving up 2ER. He'll pitch at home where he has had awful run support and a 2.14 ERA with a 1-4 record. His luck is sure to change today with the struggling KC pitching staff comes into town. CLE hitting .287 with 5.66 R/9 last 5 games will be plenty.
Bannister has a 2.11 whip and 9.82 ERA last 3 and he always struggles this time of year. Bullpen won't be there to help much as they have a 7.31 ERA last 10. Royals are 2-8 on Bannisters games where he has 5 days rest.
We'll be taking the run line as the juice is too much on the money line. In KC's 32 losses 75% of them have come by more than 1 run. They have lost 14 of their last 17 games in which 85.7% of those losses have come by more than 1 run. Indians at home have won 75% of their games by more than 1 run!
Drew Gordon
Colorado +115 at MILWAUKEE
I'm now on a 10-3 roll with the plays I'm giving away, including the Athletics over the Twins 4-3 Monday. For tonight's complimentary play, we're looking at the Colorado at Milwaukee match-up.
No question the Rockies are hot right now, winners of five straight, including a four-game sweep of the Cardinals at Busch Stadium (no easy task) and I'm looking for them to continue their winning ways tonight, as they have another favorable pitching matchup in this one, and the plus money doesn't hurt either.
Speaking of pitching matchups, you've got to like what we've seen from Jason Hammel on the road, where he's gone 2-1 with a lockdown 1.86 ERA. He was great at Detroit, and then even better at Houston in his last two road starts, allowing three runs on 10 hits over 13 strong innings. Also, he'll benefit from facing a Brewers' lineup that has not particularly hit righties well, batting just .238 against them at Miller Park.
On the flip side, Braden Looper is coming off a bitter no-decision, where he imploded in the 5th inning against the Marlins, eventually allowing a total of five runs on seven hits over 4 2/3 innings. He's been better at home, but two things should have Brewers-backers worried: First, his 5.60 ERA over his last three starts is ugly to say the least. Second, his career numbers against the Rockies are just as disappointing, as he's 2-2 with 5.28 ERA in 19 games (two starts) against them.
Bottom line, let's keep riding this Rockies' train Tuesday as they build off their series' sweep of the Cardinals with another solid winner tonight. Not only do they have a nice edge on the mound, but the Brewers are just 8-7 against righties under the lights at Miller, due in large part to their poor hitting against them in that spot. More of the same tonight, as the Rockies make it 6 in a row. Now let's go grab some of that plus money
2♦ COLORADO
Tony Weston
Today's Selection:
It took 15 innings, but our win streak finally came to an end as the Pirates couldn’t finish against the Braves. That’s fine, we’re still red hot with Comp Play winners as we’re 6-1 our last 7.
We’re making it 7 of 8 tonight as we’re taking the Phillies on the road at the Mets.
Philadelphia comes into this game on fire having won 8 of its last 10 games and having gone 17-6 its last 23 games overall.
On the road, the Phillies have been equally impressive, having won 13 of their last 17 away from Philly. On this current roadie the Phillies are 5-2 and coming off a solid 7-2 victory over the Dodgers on Sunday.
Now the Phillies hit the road to battle a Mets team that’s had its share of struggles lately. New York only has 2 wins its last 6 games.
Philadelphia will remain hot and hand the Mets another loss tonight. Take Philly on the road in this one.
3♦ PHILLIES
Craig Davis
A 4-1 run with complimentary plays heading into tonight's selection on the Yankees versus Boston.
Why do I like the dog here? Because I don't trust Josh Beckett versus New York. In two starts against the Bronx Bombers this season his ERA is 9.00 in 11 innings of work as he's allowed 20 hits in addition to walking five batters. For his career against the Yanks, Beckett's ERA is 5.80, his WHIP is 1.58, and New York is batting nearly .300 against him.
Sure, Becket has had his moments against New York; all his starts haven't been bad. But a large majority of them haven't been good enough to remember and with Boston winning the first five matchups against their rival this year, the Yankees are more than overdue for a win, even if it's on the road.
Play the Yankees to take apart Josh Beckett and the Boston Red Sox tonight.
2♦ NEW YORK YANKEES